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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #8,181
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:21pm Dec 11, 2007 4:21pm
Today was an important lesson .....expectations are what matters a lot of the time....the 1/4 point was already factored in.....it seems a lot of expectations were for the suprise 1/2 point
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #8,182
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:21pm Dec 11, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
See if we can catch some dingos
Those were very fast dingos, I didn't catch a one.
  • #8,183
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:24pm Dec 11, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Those were very fast dingos, I didn't catch a one.
So funny
Mine ran away as well. smart dingos.
  • #8,184
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:33pm Dec 11, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting creeper
So funny
Mine ran away as well. smart dingos.
I had placed a sell order on GU at 2.0442... boy was I surprised to come back and be 100 pips in profit... of course I cashed out... still got to learn about letting profits run, but until I get my account back up to break even, I'll take 100 pips any day... took an earllier 100 from GJ.. good day.... although GJ proceded to fall another couple hundred afterwords
  • #8,185
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:46pm Dec 11, 2007 4:46pm
Hey,
have been burnt today after the interest rate statement. -250 pips for me. I somehow think I have to make up for this loss but this is dangerous thought because it makes one enter setups that are worse than the ones a person would normally take.

I see two good setups on my charts.

pinbar on USDCHF

at resistance (from December 04)
with the trend

BUT the nose doesn't stick out and then there's the CHF interest statement on thursday which is why I wouldn't take this trade.

Pinbar on NZDCAD

continuation of the downtrend that started in July
at 61 fib
closed right below 365 ema


Will probably take this one. Any thoughts on these pairs?

Cheers,
Chris
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf11.12.2007.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdcadf11.12.2007.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #8,186
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:47pm Dec 11, 2007 4:47pm
This is why I really was not in any trade this time at news time... I am not saying that trading at news time cannot be done... but learned that leasson a long time ago.... you just really don't know exactly what will happen...

But I think the idea is that now... after the news you can look at Price Action and find a way to make reliable, high probability, lower risk trades...

I certainly am guilty of trading time and time again when I should not... this time I did not fall for it... I think it was clear that interest rates would be cut, but not clear by how much... no way to even have a clue as to the results... until afterwards... and that is gambling, which is something that should stay in Las Vegas... !!!!

Quoting creeper
Heyho,

I just learnt a VERY important lesson. Be aware of the news. I am almost certain that it was the interest rate statement that took me out of my AUDUSD and AUDJPY longs. I should not have entered one day before such an important news event. What I don't understand, however, is why USD gained strength after the interest rate cut. The way I understood interest rate cuts is that they weaken a currency because just holding the currency (without movements in the market) yields less interest and thus people don't look to buy after an interst rate cut. So, what am I missing.

*shit, two stupid losses that will make it harder to come out with a positive balance this month.

Chris

just read raczekfx's answer... so to simplify it, if rates are cut less than expected than the currency gains strength, if the rates are cut more than expected it falls hard and if rate cuts comply with the expectations there doesn't happen much.
  • #8,187
  • Edited 5:41pm Dec 11, 2007 4:57pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting creeper
Hey,
have been burnt today after the interest rate statement. -250 pips for me.
Argh, dude, I TOLD YOU the other night don't overdo it..this was bound to happen..the only safe entries were a lot lower and even those would now show either near zero or red..FOMC is a dangerous animal and this carry liquidation after the massive squeezes up was very possible indeed...
You shouldn't have held/entered at the chart highs


Quote
I somehow think I have to make up for this loss but this is dangerous thought because it makes one enter setups that are worse than the ones a person would normally take.
Exactly!

The USDCHF stuff/bars is/are STILL all sideways crap if you ask me, as were all the ones before it the last 7 trading days/2 weeks.

As for the why, it's already been written. Expectations are priced in and when met instead of exceeded, a lot of people press "close", that drives price and yet more do it and it gets out of hand. That's the guess I'd venture, too.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,188
  • Edited 6:27pm Dec 11, 2007 5:00pm | Edited 6:27pm
Creeper, are you sure that is a good set up on USD/CHF....?? scarlet already fell for that one a few days ago...

Price is running flat here... I could be wrong ( as usual ) but I don't buy that PB.... !!!!!!!!!!! ( or sell it either !! )

Also, as compared to the previous bar... it really does not qualify to be called a PB anyway...

Quoting creeper
Hey,
have been burnt today after the interest rate statement. -250 pips for me. I somehow think I have to make up for this loss but this is dangerous thought because it makes one enter setups that are worse than the ones a person would normally take.

I see two good setups on my charts.

pinbar on USDCHF

at resistance (from December 04)
with the trend

BUT the nose doesn't stick out and then there's the CHF interest statement on thursday which is why I wouldn't take this trade.

Pinbar on NZDCAD

continuation of the downtrend that started in July
at 61 fib
closed right below 365 ema


Will probably take this one. Any thoughts on these pairs?

Cheers,
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #8,189
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:12pm Dec 11, 2007 5:12pm
Creeper and others, I hope I did not influence you to take a long on AUD. I was actually just doing demo on it and getting back into the swing of things after my trip. I hope I did not cause anyone to loose actual money.
  • #8,190
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:16pm Dec 11, 2007 5:16pm
Still lurking around here. No, it's definitely not an A trade and very much in traffic, so I don't trade it. I think, however, when EURUSD starts rising again, USDCHF continues it's downtrend.

Seeking,

yeah you were completely right but at that moment I did not realise what importance the news could have because I've read 50 times in this thread that you can ignore the news if you trade price action on the dailies. The people that advocated ignoring the news might have been well aware of the interest rate statement, however and I think it's right that usually the news should not affect our trading. What kind of news would stop you from trading a certain pair? For USD it might be interest rate and NFP but often unemployment announcements and GDP forecasts are marked red on the calendar so would this stop you from trading?

Listening more to you in the future

edit: Hipster, don't worry, still on demo here

Chris
  • #8,191
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm
No creeper, it is not that you can ignore the news if you are trading dailies... if you had a trade already going and you are 200 pips in profit, then a news event might just be a bump in the road... but trading a daily candle right at news time... that's a different thing.... or placing the order for a trade the day before an important news event based on a daily candle... for us new traders... that is a recipie for getting bit by dingos !!!!

Quoting creeper
Still lurking around here. No, it's definitely not an A trade and very much in traffic, so I don't trade it. I think, however, when EURUSD starts rising again, USDCHF continues it's downtrend.

Seeking,

yeah you were completely right but at that moment I did not realise what importance the news could have because I've read 50 times in this thread that you can ignore the news if you trade price action on the dailies. The people that advocated ignoring the news might have been well aware of the interest rate statement, however and I think it's right that usually the news should not affect our trading. What kind of news would stop you from trading a certain pair? For USD it might be interest rate and NFP but often unemployment announcements and GDP forecasts are marked red on the calendar so would this stop you from trading?

Listening more to you in the future

edit: Hipster, don't worry, still on demo here

Chris
  • #8,192
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:25pm Dec 11, 2007 8:25pm
PA on Gold

Beovb on 4hr... wait for retrace (ppz, fib) and.... .
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  • #8,193
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:49pm Dec 11, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Creeper and others, I hope I did not influence you to take a long on AUD. I was actually just doing demo on it and getting back into the swing of things after my trip. I hope I did not cause anyone to loose actual money.
No worries. Its my own analysis. I close 70% of my lots at the highlighted area(yellow) as its an area of expected resistance. The remaining lots is to let it run.
Well it got stopout but its still positive pips. I only enter on pins and engulf candles plus other confluences. SR and trendlines are important tools.


cheers
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  • #8,194
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:51pm Dec 11, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
No creeper, it is not that you can ignore the news if you are trading dailies... if you had a trade already going and you are 200 pips in profit, then a news event might just be a bump in the road... but trading a daily candle right at news time... that's a different thing.... or placing the order for a trade the day before an important news event based on a daily candle... for us new traders... that is a recipie for getting bit by dingos !!!!
  • #8,195
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:57pm Dec 11, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting kunz78
I think that USD gained strenght because the market already knew from long time the interest cut of 25 BP and it was already priced in the dollar pair from long time.
And the fact that the cut was not bigger gave strenght to the dollar
I hv no idea on the fundamentals. the chart show that it's a main area of resistance (yellow). lots of confluences there. confirmed my suspicious when i lower the chart to 4hr. There's 365ma there.

Good prosperous to all.
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  • #8,196
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:00pm Dec 11, 2007 10:00pm
Quoting raczekfx
PA on Gold

Beovb on 4hr... wait for retrace (ppz, fib) and.... .
I am actually short from the 803 area... target is 780...
Mr. Trend
  • #8,197
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:02am Dec 12, 2007 7:02am
Quoting Mr Trend
I am actually short from the 803 area... target is 780...
Is that the latest trend on your end? avatar
  • #8,198
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:12am Dec 12, 2007 7:12am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Is that the latest trend on your end? avatar
I wish I had a pair of shiny sunglasses like he does !!!
  • #8,199
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:23am Dec 12, 2007 7:23am
Quoting Tiki Trader
I wish I had a pair of shiny sunglasses like he does !!!
I know, all I see are dollars
  • #8,200
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:24am Dec 12, 2007 7:24am
Hipster... did you see his video ??? Look in his journal... it really was very good !!!

Quoting HipsterPipster
I know, all I see are dollars
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