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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #521
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:09am Dec 11, 2007 6:09am
Quoting leighsww

http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/blink.gif

Okay, wait a minute ... how about you make Zoran the first thread leader and after he gets beheaded due to people's bursts of laughter, then I take over as new leader. Yeah, that sounds like the better plan, no? :
I'll risk my head and become the thread leader but as part of my self preservation, I expect you and fti to pass on the all important knowledge first. I've always found that teaching has given me a deeper understanding of knowledge.

fti, you cannot leave us completely. Enjoy your break but you'll have to come back and share some wisdom, even if it's on the odd occasion.
  • #522
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:29am Dec 11, 2007 6:29am
Quoting fti
Hi gene,

I think you are mistaken.

While I was at the bank , I made markets teir 1.
Yes, the orders from customers are also part of my profit MO.
I cover those orders by covering in the spot interbank,
and slippage is a component of my profits protocol.
You see I make markets and the market is where I make it to be.

The use of 5 min charts only started in 1987/88 when a service known as telerate.
started to provide compterised data feed on the markets based on ASAP page, before that I used manual drawn charts and the reuters IDS and info system, telex, international fx broker boxes as well as direct link lines to our tokyo, dusseldof, london branches only for market access.

regards
Thanks fti, I guess I did not post the question exactly as it was in my head, but your answer is exactly what I was looking for, yes I understood that you made the market, my only inquiry was realted to a covering of the positions on the interbank, and hence slippage. As I was exposed to quite sizeable positions, I had witnessed that the slippage could take away a good portion of the profits, so was just trying to get a feel of what, percentage wise your protocol allowed. Of course it all depends on the market conditions and the liqudity prersent but I bieleve that there must of been some average figure that you were working with.
In any case, you had allready given us plenty of clues thank you.
  • #523
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:31am Dec 11, 2007 6:31am
Quoting fti
Hi gene,

I think you are mistaken.

While I was at the bank , I made markets teir 1.
Yes, the orders from customers are also part of my profit MO.
I cover those orders by covering in the spot interbank,
and slippage is a component of my profits protocol.
You see I make markets and the market is where I make it to be.

The use of 5 min charts only started in 1987/88 when a service known as telerate.
started to provide compterised data feed on the markets based on ASAP page, before that I used manual drawn charts and the reuters IDS and info system, telex, international fx broker boxes as well as direct link lines to our tokyo, dusseldof, london branches only for market access.

regards
FTI, hi -

Sorry, to interrupt your conversation.

I know you traded USD/DM in your days; did you trade other currencies for your own book and what (if) are your plans as to which pairs you would trade nowadays?

P.S., we might have had you on one of our speakers then...

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #524
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:57am Dec 11, 2007 6:57am
Quoting Zoran
I'll risk my head and become the thread leader but as part of my self preservation, I expect you and fti to pass on the all important knowledge first. I've always found that teaching has given me a deeper understanding of knowledge.

fti, you cannot leave us completely. Enjoy your break but you'll have to come back and share some wisdom, even if it's on the odd occasion.
Hi Zoran,

Thanks for risking your head.
The truth is I have given in this thread,
all my thoughts and the training I have acquired,
the knowledge, the direction. I trained my self with less when I first started out.

The only things I have not given , is my charts which is the bare price charts,
which is a lot less than what most people look at.
And my exprerience in trading.
And frankly I don't know how I can teach that.

I have hand held Leighsww in a few live trading sessions over the net,
while I managed positions and she watched me tame the beast on her computer,
half a world and time zone away.
and she ask questions on why I do this or that, from my blotter
and thru that she tries to learn.
She has gone on to adopting what she has learned and I think she's making some pips.

So In all , the important knowledge is already been given in the threads.
Short of starting a trading institution, I don't foresee how I can train traders and trade for myself,
Now that I am retired, you may notice that my energy levels are not par excellence.
So when I came here , and thru coaxing from Leighsww,
it dawned on me that I could impart the knowledge, for people that may like to learn my ways,
but may not know where to start. So here it is.

After my vacation with my family, if what I planned comes alive,
I would be actively trading, and when I am on the real $$, you will not hear much of me,
as I tend to be very focus on what I am doing, esp in markets.
Like someone discribed, dealers in battle gear.
You may find that you may have to wait for ages to have your questions answered.
I hope you can understand.

My plans is to create a dealing arena of my own, after the vacation.
So the question of, if I can commit to the distraction to help others while trying to get that up properly.
All I can promise you is perhaps.

Short of making everyone a carbon copy of me, my trading MO is all here.

regards
  • #525
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:08am Dec 11, 2007 7:08am
Hi Guys..

Please check this site. AOW ebooks

http://www.ebooks.com/SearchApp/Sear...2Art+of+war%22


cheers
  • #526
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:17am Dec 11, 2007 7:17am
A dealing arena of your own, and you say your energey levels are not up to par, lol.
Enjoy your vacation
  • #527
  • Edited 8:17am Dec 11, 2007 7:49am | Edited 8:17am
Hi daytrading,

In the mature part of my career I was treasury head before my CEO thingy.
I made prices between 30 to 50$ on all the 4 majors.
more active in USD/DM my favourite girl.
For customers up to 100$
The bulk of the dealing was interbank thru reuters IDS.
But this compared to my tokyo and London is nothing to shout about.

I do remember that you were from the Europe sector.
We do support the brokers with prices for the other tiers.
My senior dealers handled the fx broker boxes.
So you would probably had heard us thru your counter party in Sg.
For your sectors, I think the major activity were name switches.

Personally, I had a couple of seats at SIMEX , which I rented out while at the banks.
Now that SGX had taken over the exchange, and had gone electronic,
my seats were converted to SGX shares that have given good yields.
Since retirement I do dabble in the Nikkei225 and Taiwan indexs futures contracts.
We did supported SIMEX in their spot currencies contracts, but the customer liquidity was not condusive.
Since retirment, done nothing in the Forex until now, that I am exploring the possibilities.

For my personal Forex adventure, I guess I 'll be on the majors.
esp EUR/USD as she supposed to the grown up USD/DM.
probably USD/YEN for time zone convenience.
for me cable and chf, the thin wild ladies, probably do crosses there,
if the opportumities surfaces. Maybe if the Gold markets starts some things.
The chf crosses would be interesting.

You have good market experience, why not share some insights to help some people here.
Have you dealt with Muku, the DM king before in your days?
he dealt for BCI spore.

regards
  • #528
  • Edited 8:29am Dec 11, 2007 7:58am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting Piters
Hi Guys..

Please check this site. AOW ebooks

http://www.ebooks.com/SearchApp/Sear...2Art+of+war%22


cheers
Hey guys . there's no need to buy. lah.
Its in public domain.

Free copies at these sites.

The Project Gutenberg Etext of The Art of War by Sun Tzu
*****This file should be named suntzu10.txt or suntzu10.zip*****
google it.

http://www.afpc.asso.fr/wengu/wg/wengu.php?l=Sunzi

http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html#01

http://www.idph.com.br/conteudos/ebo...art-of-war.pdf

And I think in many languages, afpc have for french I think.


regards
  • #529
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:22am Dec 11, 2007 8:22am
Quoting fti
Hi daytrading,

In the mature part of my career I was treasury head before my CEO thingy.
I made prices between 30 to 50$ on all the 4 majors.
more active in USD/DM my favourite girl.
The bulk of the dealing was interbank thru reuters IDS.
But this compared to my tokyo and London is nothing to shout about.

I do remember that you were from the Europe sector.
We do support the brokers with prices for the other tiers.
My senior dealers handled the fx broker boxes.
So you would probably had heard us thru your counter party in Sg.
For your sectors, I think the major activity were name switches.

Personally, I had a couple of seats at SIMEX , which I rented out while at the banks.
Now that SGX had taken over the exchange, and had gone electronic,
my seats were converted to SGX shares that have given good yields.
Since retirement I do dabble in the Nikkei225 and Taiwan indexs futures contracts.
We did supported SIMEX in their spot currencies contracts, but the customer liquidity was not condusive.
Since retirment, done nothing in the Forex until now, that I am exploring the possibilities.

For my personal Forex adventure, I guess I 'll be on the majors.
esp EUR/USD as she supposed to the grown up USD/DM.
probably USD/YEN for time zone convenience.
for me cable and chf, the thin wild ladies, probably do crosses there,
if the opportumities surfaces. Maybe if the Gold markets starts some things.
The chf crosses would be interesting.

You have good market experience, why not share some insights to help some people here.
Have you dealt with Muku, the DM king before in your days?

regards
Hi FTI,

thank you for the quick reply and the information therein. I don't want to ramble on because it is a bit off topic.

The name Muku doesn't ring a bell immidiately...then again at that time I was a "freshman" in 1987 at Ohms in Frankfurt (who got taken over by Astley & Pearce - or Godsell as we called them in London), and I sat at the Interbank Deposit Desk for starters - next door to the spot fx dealing desk.

We the had a cross desk built (mark/lira, mark/paris etc.) - that's when I got interested in forex - although I had to wait another 13 years before I put my first spot deal on the pad. I brokered deposits, government bonds and IR-derivatives which I also started trading for myself from 1996 because I had access to the Matif and the LIFFE when working for Finacor/Finafutures in London. I founded my own trading and research firm in 2000 and now trade mainly for myself.

Everything I know about trading I have tought myself - and I am still learning. Never had a demo account in my life...so I have experienced the emotional crunch when making mistakes. One thing that broking has taught me, is not to be afraid of large numbers.

Thank you for your vote of confidence, and I will of course share when appropriate.

Thank you also for your insights.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #530
  • Edited Dec 12, 2007 4:23am Dec 11, 2007 10:04am | Edited Dec 12, 2007 4:23am
A Lesson about important things in Life.
Courtesy of a certain t-genius I knew.
--------------------------------------------
by Robert Pearson

She was six years old when I first met her on the beach near where I live.
I drive to this beach, a distance of three or four miles,
whenever the world begins to close in on me.
She was building a sandcastle or something and looked up, her eyes as blue as the sea.

"Hello," she said.
I answered with a nod, not really in the mood to bother with a small child.
"I'm building," she said.
"I see that. What is it?" I asked, not really caring.
"Oh, I don't know, I just like the feel of sand."
That sounds good, I thought, and slipped off my shoes.
A sandpiper glided by.
"That's a joy," the child said.
"It's a what?"
"It's a joy. My mama says sandpipers come to bring us joy."

The bird went gliding down the beach. Good-bye joy,
I muttered to myself, hello pain,and turned to walk on.
I was depressed, my life seemed completely out of balance.

"What's your name?" She wouldn't give up.
"Robert," I answered. "I'm Robert Peterson."
"Mine's Wendy... I'm six."

"Hi, Wendy."
She giggled. "You're funny," she said.
In spite of my gloom, I laughed too and walked on.
Her musical giggle followed me.
"Come again, Mr. P," she called. "We'll have another happy day."
After a few days of a group of unruly Boy Scouts, PTA meetings,
and an ailing mother,I wondered.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The sun was shining one morning as I took my hands out of the dishwater.
I need a sandpiper, I said to myself, gathering up my coat.
The ever-changing balm of the seashore awaited me.
The breeze was chilly but I strode along, trying to recapture the serenity I needed.

"Hello, Mr. P," she said. "Do you want to play?"
"What did you have in mind?" I asked, with a twinge of annoyance.
"I don't know, you say."
"How about charades?" I asked sarcastically.
The tinkling laughter burst forth again.
"I don't know what that is."
"Then let's just walk." Looking at her, I noticed the delicate fairness of her face.
"Where do you live?" I asked.
"Over there." She pointed toward a row of summer cottages.
Strange, I thought, in winter.
"Where do you go to school?"
"I don't go to school. Mummy says we're on vacation."

She chattered “little girl” talk as we strolled up the beach
but my mind was on other things.
When I left for home, Wendy said it had been a happy day.
Feeling surprisingly better, I smiled at her and agreed.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Three weeks later, I went to my beach in a state of near panic.
I was in no mood to even greet Wendy.
I thought I saw her mother on the porch
and felt like demanding she keep her child at home.

"Look, if you don't mind," I said crossly when Wendy caught up with me,
"I'd rather be alone today."
She seemed unusually pale and out of breath.
"Why?" she asked.
I turned to her and shouted, "Because my mother died!"
and wondered why was I saying this to a little child?
"Oh, she said quietly, 'then this is a bad day."
"Yes," I said, "and yesterday and the day before and--oh, go away!"

"Did it hurt?" she inquired.
"Did what hurt?" I was exasperated with her, with myself.
"When she died?"
"Of course it hurt!" I snapped,
misunderstanding, wrapped up in myself. I strode off.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A month or so after that, when I next went to the beach, she wasn't there.
Feeling guilty, ashamed and admitting to myself I missed her,
I went up to the cottage after my walk and knocked at the door.
A drawn looking young woman with honey-colored hair opened the door.

"Hello," I said, "I'm Robert Peterson.
I missed your little girl today and wondered where she was."

"Oh yes, Mr. Peterson, please come in.
Wendy spoke of you so much.
I'm afraid I allowed her to bother you.
If she was a nuisance, please, accept my apologies."

"Not at all -- she's a delightful child."
I said, suddenly realizing that I meant what I had just said.
"Wendy died last week, Mr. Peterson. She had leukemia.
Maybe she didn't tell you."
Struck dumb, I groped for a chair. I had to catch my breath.

"She loved this beach so when she asked to come, we couldn't say no.
She seemed so much better here and had a lot of what she called happy days.
But the last few weeks, she declined rapidly...
" Her voice faltered,
"She left something for you ... if only I can find it.
Could you wait a moment while I look?"

I nodded stupidly, my mind racing for something to say to this lovely young woman.
She handed me a smeared envelope with MR. P printed in bold childish letters.
Inside was a drawing in bright crayon hues
-- a yellow beach, a blue sea, and a brown bird. Underneath was carefully printed:

"A sandpiper to bring you joy."

Tears welled up in my eyes and a heart that had almost forgotten to love opened wide.
I took Wendy's mother in my arms.
"I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry,"
I muttered over and over, and we wept together.

The precious little picture is framed now and hangs in my study.
Six words-- one for each year of her life --
that speak to me of harmony, courage, and undemanding love.
A gift from a child with sea blue eyes and hair the color of sand
-- who taught me the gift of love.

************************************************
NOTE: The above story is true.
It serves as a reminder to all of us to live life to the fullest.
Live everyday, as if it will be your last, one day it will be true.
For today, be the best you can be.

regards
fti

Snadpipers - Chotto Matte Kudasai
  • #531
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:09am Dec 11, 2007 11:09am
Quoting fti
NOTE: The above story is true.
It serves as a reminder to all of us to live life to the fullest.
Live everyday, as if it will be your last, one day it will be true.
For today, be the best you can be.

Hi FTi,

Thank you very much for your teachings. I have read through this thread and have learnt so much I hadn't known and thought of for the past few years. The story is really touching and and a very good reminder to live the best of our life.

best regards,
pipal
  • #532
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:09am Dec 11, 2007 11:09am
Сan relate, thank you
  • #533
  • Edited 12:09pm Dec 11, 2007 11:13am | Edited 12:09pm
If you believe prices are the sum of the human emotions, then I have a compelling explanation. If pollsters can predict US presidential elections with an acceptable degree of accuracy, why can't technical analysts?

The answer may lies in assuming the markets are 2-dimensional (prices and time). What if it has more than that. The universe is now generally thought to have 11-dimensions. So why not financial markets?

This is the assumption, I had in 2002. After 5 years, I can now give you an answer. Financial markets definitely have more than 2 dimensions.

I took two approaches (assuming the multi-dimensional model) and both gave been consistently close readings i.e. the markets' emotional levels can be measured just like polls. It is like the stochastic and RSI giving similar readings.

This is definitely not the holy grail, but it allows you to read the markets better. Like any sports, if you can read the game well, you have a decided advantage. The rest is on your execution.

Links removed by Moderator

Rgds
  • #534
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:38am Dec 11, 2007 11:38am
NOTE: The above story is true.
It serves as a reminder to all of us to live life to the fullest.
Live everyday, as if it will be your last, one day it will be true.
For today, be the best you can be.

Thank you for your many wonderful and interesting posts.

I wish you and your family a super vacation, a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year.

Here's to your 2008 posts!

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #535
  • Edited 12:56pm Dec 11, 2007 11:40am | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting skeptical1
If you believe prices are the sum of the human emotions, then I have a compelling explanation. If pollsters can predict US presidential elections with an acceptable degree of accuracy, why can't technical analysts?

The answer may lies in assuming the markets are 2-dimensional (prices and time). What if it has more than that. The universe is now generally thought to have 11-dimensions. So why not financial markets?

This is the assumption, I had in 2002. After 5 years, I can now give you an answer. Financial markets definitely have more than 2 dimensions.

I took two approaches (assuming the multi-dimensional model) and both gave been consistently close readings i.e. the markets' emotional levels can be measured just like polls. It is like the stochastic and RSI giving similar readings.

This is definitely not the holy grail, but it allows you to read the markets better. Like any sports, if you can read the game well, you have a decided advantage. The rest is on your execution.

I do not want to be accused of spamming, you can verify my claims by using your data and my software which can be found at

Rgds
skeptical1,

Without even looking at your software and your abilities,
I can make an educated guess of your intensions here.

1, You need money.
either to fund your research
or
to fund your trading.

2. You have no trading skills and canot fend for yourself in the markets.

3. You think you can catch some desperate suckers here to help you out financially.

Let me give you a piece of advice free, you do not have to subscribe to my advisory service.(like you are offering yours)

1.Read this thread and go learn how to trade and make yourself self supporting with skills and stop peddling snake oil for a living.

2 If you have no fund available for risk taking, go find yourself a decent job, and try to save up enough for a stake .

and please remove that link from this thread because I don't think anyone here wishes to be executed, as per your suggestion.

Wishing you learn to be a decent human........

regards
  • #536
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:10pm Dec 11, 2007 2:10pm
WoW, what a truly touching and moving story http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/crying.gif

Quoting fti
Live everyday, as if it will be your last
I attended a seminar a long time ago in which that statement really hit me to the core.

It's also a reminder ... to always tell our loved ones how much we love them, because we do not want to regret that one day they will pass without the words being spoken.

For us to say "they should know" is not enough, they need to hear the words.

And for anybody who can't relate this to trading ... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol :
  • #537
  • Edited 3:20pm Dec 11, 2007 2:40pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting leighsww
WoW, what a truly touching and moving story http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/crying.gif

And for anybody who can't relate this to trading ... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol :
Hi leighsww,

What was that about???huh???
... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol

You're sure it'll repond? you promise? cross your heart?
I think the crying getting to you,huh?

Heres the follow up to your story,

Garth Brooks - "If Tomorrow Never Comes"

enjoy
regards

PS: Are you trying to cope out of the positiona as head concubine,,,eeer leader by faking in-sanity?#%+-
I traded all night and day now, for demo pips, so if anyone's "one flew over the nest" , should be me ,no?
  • #538
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:33pm Dec 11, 2007 3:33pm
I don't know what I have learned here, so far, but I do know that bti has planted a seed in my subconcious. I feel the seed germinating, and hope it grows to reach my Consciousness. Then maybe I will be able to climb it and reach the golden egg.
  • #539
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:54pm Dec 11, 2007 4:54pm
Thank you fti for helping and sharing your life with us. You are truly a great human being. What one believes shows up in how one treats people, and what one believes also shows up in how one trades. It takes many years to acquire the wisdom you have unfolded before us. And then to put it into words and lay it before us is a sacrifice of devotion and belief in your fellow human traders. I, for one, appreciate it. I'm reminded that, "a sharp ax requires a lot of hard work, but a wise man will sharpen it." I fell that by reading your post I am much sharper than when I first began. Thanks again.
  • #540
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:57pm Dec 11, 2007 4:57pm
Quoting fti
What was that about???huh???
... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol

You're sure it'll repond? you promise? cross your heart?
LOL, hey just cuz I tell my charts I love 'em, doesn't mean you have to, but I'm tellin' ya, they need to hear it sometimes, just give it a try instead of being hard-head, lol :

Oh, also don't forget your plants and animals, too, lol!

Quoting fti
PS: Are you trying to cope out of the positiona as head concubine,,,eeer leader by faking in-sanity?#%+-
:

Quoting fti
so if anyone's "one flew over the nest" , should be me ,no?
Well, that goes without saying, sheesh! :

Quoting webfoot
I don't know what I have learned here, so far, but I do know that bti has planted a seed in my subconcious.
LOL, I'm sure many are feeling the same way
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