Technical Analysis Fallacy

Oh yeah?? You sure?!! LOL, then where the heck is your forward slash on that above closing tag, Zoran?!! :

Or are you just being a li'l wise-butt, lol?! :

I smell Larry Williams wisdom here
The pigs story and how markets trap us is really helpful and insightful

fti, what about naseem nicholas taleb and his theories?

That was the aud/jpy. I am currently long at the moment and doing ok, I left it overnight with a stop loss that would have left me in profit (if slippage wasn't extreme at least), if I was using real money I would have nursed it a bit more and added to my position on the climb.
I also would have been out bar a small position (it was 'free' to an extent) to take profits and then nursed that position and added to it on its next climb north.
The chart is below for analysis of how I would have liked to play it, I know all is good in hind sight but I do play the trades like this when they appear.

I also just bought in this morning but not until after the flat period at the top started pushing forward again else I would have taken profits again.

PS. the blue triangles are my actual trades atm. and at the text I said I would have sold new pos 1, I would have closed pos 2 also and kept 3 in the race just in case.

[quote=leighsww;1752618]Oh yeah?? You sure?!! LOL, then where the heck is your forward slash on that above closing tag, Zoran?!! :
[/quote

Oh right, the forward slash. Got it now!

ACK, but don't forget the end bracket, too!!! Aye-yai-yai!

LOL, Zoran ... did you get enough sleep last night?! : (or are you like playin' with my mind? http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/yeahright.gif lol)

Zoran, fti,
would this be an example of 'snowballing' out of a bad postion (1)? I actually put this pos on by mistake, it is going against me but the general trend is long and I bought in at (2) with the double bottom, so far it is balancing my books and may well turn out quite profitable if the trend continues in which case I will add to the position further.

edit- it's actually not a very good example as the previous high failed and I probably should have just let the position ride up or sold if it broke the DBtm - watch the PA! With the trend how it is though I might get lucky.

Hi fti, actually I feel drained like a watermelon and try to get as drunk as possible to take the edge of as soon as the week is over or as soon as I get done with one of those uphill battles. Unfortunatelly the fact that I'm Russian combined with an increased tolerance for alcohol don't help much, just a waste of some fine products, lol.
On a serious note though, I use different analyses for different time frames and try to use the time frames that may offer the best setup/advantage. I actually trade virtually naked but do use a lot of analyses that are simply in the back of my head/charts. Price is king, but then there are usually other signs that present themselves. As far as spiral's and Gann, it's a work in progress, I just started to dig deep, so we'll see. I'll give you one example though from a recent PA. According to Gann, you take the significant bottom times 2 to get a significant top, combining this with a time factor created a beautifull trade on the G/U just last month. We had last significant bottom on 2/01/1985 which printed at 1.0463 times two would equal 2.0926, that's the level where I started accumulating shorts, it actually went as high as 2.1161 back this past November, 235 pips off, my tolerance was 350, so it worked out rather well.
As far as qudrants go I also find that sometimes it helps me determine the markets pulse or rythm if I may. It doesn't always happen but then there is nothing absolute that works all the time. If the pulse is correctly determined the trades can offer very high returns with a very manageable risk factor, it's all based on expereince of seeing something special developing.
As far as experience goes, I can't call myself experienced in a full sense of the word, I have stagnant experience of over 14 years, mentor, courses, licences, etc., but active trading will amount to at most 4years, had other ventures that I was involved in before. Now I dance full time for the past year, so still trying to see what's out there, learn whatever possible under the sun, discard the garbage, adopt the wisdom, fine tune my own trading style.
So thank you again for posting your information brings a new dimension to the ring.

Hey All
I learned one thing here - already.
I was in the red and getting redder, before taking bti's advice (took out the stops). Most of the time stops were taking me out at a lose. Now I'm in the black.
A little sage advice can go a long way.
Also stripped my chart.

Congrats!

LOL, I suppose that "snake belly" post wasn't posed at fti then? I think he might have thought it was, since it came right after all that drama that went on, lol.

but don't forget the end bracket, too!!! Aye-yai-yai!

LOL, Zoran ... did you get enough sleep last night?! : (or are you like playin' with my mind? http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/yeahright.gif lol)

Sleep? Sleep? I have three young boys and one awoke at 5am this morning. I think I have forgotten the meaning of sleep! Anyway, I think I got the end bracket now. How could I miss it?

Mick, I think fti should probably answer as I wouldn't want to interfere with his teaching.

Bed time here so perhaps the kids will sleep tonight? hmm, wishful thinking!

LOL, Zoran ... I will have to throw you a party when you finally get it right!! : (you still have some of my quote outside the quote box, haha)

{ :: Hehe, I am getting really fond of that boy , lol :: }

--------

Just wanted to let any of the less polished traders know ...

Don't get scared with what is being said with AOW and MM (especially once he posts the rest of his lessons, lol), cuz I am trading more conservatively using fti's method, so don't worry, you can still do this without needing to be as aggressive as fti.

He's been so used to the dealer mindset, that his war method and style is very aggressive, but I'm still a lady, so when I wear army boots, I still little more feminine :

Anyway, once fti finishes his lessons, I will post some of how I've been trading his method for those who may want to go slower, like me.

I'm building up my account gradually, I don't need to become a millionaire overnight, lol. Once I can play with house money, then little more aggressiveness will be okay, but until then, slow and steady is how I am playing this forex business.

This month makes 9 months trading live for me, and I haven't blown up my account yet (I use 100:1 leverage; 1 lot=$10,000, I normally trade minimum 1 lot), so trust me when I say, I am not reckless with my trading and I wouldn't be backing fti up if I thought otherwise of his teachings.

He's got a really excellent system, and it can be tailored to meet everyone's needs, in my opinion, anyway

Hi, Leighsww
you are right, the arrow hit the wrong target.

Sorry, bti

Hi Guys,

Just have to say this is a great thread.

Something that might not sink in straightaway might make sense later on...as long as we keep our minds open we can evolve to become smart traders.

I am by no means a polished/brilliant etc whatever trader but your post Leighsww made me want to reply that one of the main reasons I am still in this game and never blown an account (4yrs...peanuts really) is the slow and steady principle with conservative yet proper MM.

Cheers
Antra

was trying to avert a war

Antra ... you one smart Puss 'n (Army) Boots!

LOL, I hope people know that character, cuz otherwise, that may sound pretty awful :

Good to hear from your Wiseness! And don't worry, fti won't be promoting kicking anybody's cat from now on. I've whipped him good on that one!

webfoot ... it's okay. Good that you cleared that up though, lol.

Hi ALL,
wow, making pips hard business, managed to capture some, but the price isn't worth the dang sufferings. I get the weird feeling that the market wants to go on vacation too. LOL
I haven't got to answering some post yet, will do that later.

Anyways,
I truely think that if you read what I have given already.
You don't need me to do the AOW thingy.


Just for deeper understanding why don't someone quote the Sun Zi wisdoms, One by One and dissect it's true meanings.
Leighsww, You made me show hand, and I learned about yoiur tough love thingy,
so hows about some tender loving assistance.
I think there are some experienced people here, and some very interlligent people here, Between all of you, I would like to think you should find the way..,,,

Leighsww,
I tell you What, I'll give you all the titles in my studies.
And you can lead all here to fill them up with Sun Zi wisdoms.
Don't start now wait until I finish my stories, won't be long.

Any Suggestions from the floor?

I have done the Know thyself part and heres the Intro.to the Art of War.

regards

Sun Zi Bing Fa ( The Sun Zi Art of War )
---------------------------------------
Ssu-ma Ch`ien has to tell us in this chapter.

Sun Tzu Wu was a native of the Ch`i State.
His ART OF WAR brought him to the notice of Ho Lu, King of Wu.

Ho Lu said to him:
"I have carefully perused your 13 chapters.
May I submit your theory of managing soldiers to a slight test?"
Sun Tzu replied: "You may."
Ho Lu asked: "May the test be applied to women?"
The answer was again in the affirmative,
so arrangements were made to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace.

Sun Tzu divided them into two companies,
and placed one of the King's favorite concubines at the head of each.
He then bade them all take spears in their hands, and addressed them thus:
"I presume you know the difference between front and back, right hand and left hand?"
The girls replied: Yes.
Sun Tzu went on:
"When I say "Eyes front," you must look straight ahead.
When I say "Left turn," you must face towards your left hand.
When I say "Right turn," you must face towards your right hand.
When I say "About turn," you must face right round towards your back."
Again the girls assented.

The words of command having been thus explained,
he set up the halberds and battle-axes in order to begin the drill.
Then, to the sound of drums, he gave the order "Right turn."
But the girls only burst out laughing.
Sun Tzu said:
"If words of command are not clear and distinct,
if orders are not thoroughly understood, then the general is to blame."

So he started drilling them again, and this time gave the order "Left turn,"
whereupon the girls once more burst into fits of laughter.
Sun Tzu:
"If words of command are not clear and distinct,
if orders are not thoroughly understood, the general is to blame.
But if his orders ARE clear, and the soldiers nevertheless disobey,
then it is the fault of their officers."

So saying, he ordered the leaders of the two companies to be beheaded.
Now the king of Wu was watching the scene from the top of a raised pavilion;
and when he saw that his favorite concubines were about to be executed,
he was greatly alarmed and hurriedly sent down the following message:
"We are now quite satisfied as to our general's ability to handle troops.
If We are bereft of these two concubines, our meat and drink will lose their savor.
It is our wish that they shall not be beheaded."

Sun Tzu replied:
"Having once received His Majesty's commission to be the general of his forces,
there are certain commands of His Majesty which, acting in that capacity, I am unable to accept."

Accordingly, he had the two leaders beheaded,
and straightway installed the pair next in order as leaders in their place.
When this had been done, the drum was sounded for the drill once more;
and the girls went through all the evolutions,
turning to the right or to the left, marching ahead or wheeling back, kneeling or standing,
with perfect accuracy and precision, not venturing to utter a sound.
Then Sun Tzu sent a messenger to the King saying:
"Your soldiers, Sire, are now properly drilled and disciplined,
and ready for your majesty's inspection.
They can be put to any use that their sovereign may desire;
bid them go through fire and water, and they will not disobey."

But the King replied:
"Let our general cease drilling and return to camp.
As for us, We have no wish to come down and inspect the troops."
Thereupon Sun Tzu said:
"The King is only fond of words, and cannot translate them into deeds."

After that, Ho Lu saw that Sun Tzu was one who knew how to handle an army,
and finally appointed him general.

In the west, he defeated the Ch`u State and forced his way into Ying, the capital;
to the north he put fear into the States of Ch`i and Chin,
and spread his fame abroad amongst the feudal princes.
And Sun Tzu shared in the might of the King.

Apologies for War
----------------
"All one can say is that this power
will be exercised wisely by some, foolishly by others, and
that among those who bear arms some will be loyal and others
rebellious."

Yeah, for intraday, the market is dancing the Funky Chicken, haha.

Oh sorry, I didn't think you were talking about the actual Sun Zi's AOW, I thought you were meaning your own AOW when I posted about the spanking, lol :

http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/blink.gif

Okay, wait a minute ... how about you make Zoran the first concubine ... errrr, I mean, thread leader and after he gets beheaded due to people's bursts of laughter, then I take over as new leader. Yeah, that sounds like the better plan, no? :

@ Zoran,
To go over all chart patterns would be a tedious and drawn out process of reinventing the wheel, I think I will pass, as there're heaps of material in the market and I believe most students of that persuit should have background knoeledge of most of them.

My dissecting your chart was to highlight to you of the error of drawing and colouring them as you do, could blind-sight you in new patterns that are forming. Its best to keep analysing to see whats forming as we go along.

Using the predictive aspects on the charts is to me a fallacy.

M tops are actually double tops and W bottoms are double bottoms,
There are variants in their interpretations as there is also comparision of the left hand and right hand peaks and valleys.
Stepping tops and bottoms are basically recuring confirmations of the on going top and bottom developments of the patterns accordingly. There's so much more, but experience in reading them will develop over time.
Moreover my dealing room lingo, may be alittle sexist. As we have terms like heavy tops, solid bottoms, long legged ladies...............

Are the CBs in the market , who knows?, but after the publicity of their lip interventions, I would presume by their normal MO that they are checking the market, sometimes.
But there is no announcements yet.
If they actually came in to intervene, reuters would annouce and confirm their actions after about half and hour after such activity.

Right shoulder formation or not, I just follow and strategies accorddingly, if happens fine (make a bomb), if don't, I go on looking for new developments.
The analysis in never stagnant, its an on going batttle process, and with every new piece of info on the charts , the battle plan adjusts to assimulate into it. and thanks for you pips, you actually quoted my joke, LOL

Tried a few platform,
I like the FXCM one for order book convenience, but I didn't like their quotes and technical analysis format.
The MT4 is good for tecnical analysis, but the orderbook is less versatile., esp where you have to change orders manually one by one and cannot liquidate positions all at once. Moreover inability to join bid and offer prices is a real disadvantage to active position managing.
The oanda charts is primitive for analysis, but seems good for order book as well.
The EFX navigator seems primitive as well, but their quotes are tight. And charting is outsourced, so causes unnecessary expenses for charting service. I think they charge bro, so defeats the tight spreads advantage.
There are many I haven't tried, now I am demoing in MT4.

regards

Hi ALL

@ piphitman
yeah naked and deep end is good, but then either swim or sink, huh
You like the challenge?

@ m@2t
you seem liking analysis of events, aso neh, read Paper Money, it will open your horizons.

@ Leighsww,
Yea, public kinky spanking session. Get him mama san.
Don't keep counting your $$. Gotta help some people, huh.
You know some things I have discussed hands on ,so give them some insights, la.
Easier said than done, right?

regards