Malaysia

Quoting papa_72

Disliked

I don't think the market priced in the FED interest rate cut already....
The Uk PPI today and US Pending Home Sales would be interesting....
I would expect a 0.25 cut. If FED goes for 0.5 that would be a suicide..

Ignored

Quoting azmanfxuss

Disliked

Salaam to everyone.... My name is Azman and I'm new to the trade.I'm joining in for the sole purpose of learning and sharing. Being new, I may have all the gift of contributing my ignorance and benefiting from your experiences... if you may.Hope to do the reverse soon enough.Looking forward to your guidance.

Azman

Ignored

Quoting Malaysia

Disliked

Welcome friend Together we evolve... together we survive

Ignored

Quoting G33maroon

Disliked

so the point is that sometimes it will be dangerous to trade based on the number alone.

best regards,

Ignored

Quoting fxcritic

Disliked

Technical analysis is one thing but news can off set everything.
Yes, I agree.

Ignored

Quoting Malaysia

Disliked

Hearing the rumors on the air this week. The FED is less likely to CUT IR by 50bp as it was seems possible two weeks ago from the poor economics data. However, economics data for US last week showing sign of recovering. Thus, cutting IR by 25bp seems more convincing and proper. As for the market... it seems like it already been PRICED IN for the 25bp Cut and now the price correction taking place... the US Dollar might strengthen out of the 25bp cut like what happened to the Pound Sterling last Thursday This is just my opinion. My opinion does not move the market

Be ready for the SURPRISE though. If FED cut IF by 50bp... you already know what gonna happen...

Ignored

Quote

Disliked

Talking Points:

$ Dollar – How Low Will The Fed Go?
€ Euro – Trichet Stays Tough
¥ USDJPY May Plummet Despite Further Deterioration in Japanese Data
? Can Cable Hold Above Critical Support at 2.02?
? Franc Falls Back To Support As SNB Decision Approaches
C$ Canadian Dollar Regains Traction on Employment Results
AU$ RBA Holds Fast, Australian Calendar Busy Once Again
NZ$ New Zealand Dollar Rallies on Hawkish RBNZ Rhetoric, Rate Prospects

Dollar – How Low Will The Fed Go?

50bp or 25bp? That will be the central question facing the market next week. Given the relatively robust NFP reading of 94K – just shy our 100K threshold for growing economy – the consensus view must side with only a 25bp cut. In fact if the Fed were to cut by 50bp next week such a move would almost assuredly be taken as a sign of panic and talk of recession would be quickly revived. For the time being however, fears of a severe US slowdown have been quelled as both ISMs remained above 50 boom/bust line and the jobs data offered no nasty downside surprises.

As we noted on Friday that “Given the massive amount of gloom and doom analysis surrounding the US economy an increase (in NFP’s) of such magnitude would surely silence the dollar bears who have been calling for an imminent start of a US recession. In fact as we posted in our forums Google trends indicates that concerns about a recession may be setting a double top in popular media which in turn may coincide with a topping out of dollar negative sentiment.”

Aside from FOMC meeting which will command markets’ attention at the start of next week, traders will likely focus on Wednesday’s Trade Balance figures and Thursday’s Advanced Retail Sales. The Trade number which could surprise to the upside given dollar’s weakness but the Retails Sales number will be key given the fact that the consumer is the cornerstone of US economic demand. The market expects a rise to 0.5% from last months lackluster 0.2% reading. However, recent weekly store data has been mixed at best suggesting that that the credit crunch and the collapse in housing are having a materially negative impact on spending. If Retail Sales once again miss their mark they could spoil the greenback’s near term recovery. – BS

Euro – Trichet Stays Tough

As we wrote on Friday, “Greenback rally… was stopped cold yesterday after a decidedly hawkish press conference from ECB chief Jean Claude Trichet. The message from President Trichet was essentially, ‘Don’t mess with us.’ Mr. Trichet focused squarely on price pressures burbling up in the EZ economy, ignoring the possible dangers of weak consumer spending, suggesting that the ECB was willing to buck the global monetary trend of easing and would hike rates if necessary in Q1. “

Whether ECB would actually follow through on their threats remains to be seem. The economic data out of the region continued to suggest serious bifurcation between producers and consumers. PMI readings last week in both services and manufacturing exceeded their forecasts, but Retail Sales results were woeful. Given the weakness of consumer demand we believe the ECB will remain stationary well into Q1 even if price pressure continue to percolate within the system.

Next week the economic calendar is relatively light with only ZEW and CPI data of any interest to traders. ZEW is expected to deteriorate further but it will likely be the inflation data that could have the most impact on EURUSD trade. Another hot reading could reaffirm the hawkish posture of the ECB, but the print would have to be extraordinarily high in order for traders to consider another ECB rate hike in the near future.– BS

Quoting totally

Disliked

sorry to ask...what is q1 actually? juat quoting from analysis from dailyfx..seems hard to understand...

Ignored

Quote

Disliked

ECB was willing to buck the global monetary trend of easing and would hike rates if necessary in Q1.

Quoting totally

Disliked

1st quarter of the year means to be next year right?..ermm...right

Quote

Disliked

ECB was willing to buck the global monetary trend of easing and would hike rates if necessary in Q1.

Ignored