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  • #921
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:02pm Dec 7, 2007 1:02pm
Time sure goes slow when you're watching a daily candle. I've gone out, gotten a haircut, bought weekend beer, came back, and the only thing that looks different in appearance is me.
I guess I'll go vacuum and see if anything changes....
At least I'm still in the game at +50.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #922
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:22pm Dec 7, 2007 1:22pm
I am following along this thread trying to understand the strategy, so bear with me if I don't get it yet.

Below is a current chart. First of all is my swing fib correct? Second, is the current candle what we are looking for as a valid long entry, or would have it been better to get in on the previous candle?

Any help would be great.
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  • #923
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:30pm Dec 7, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting Jared
I am following along this thread trying to understand the strategy, so bear with me if I don't get it yet.

Below is a current chart. First of all is my swing fib correct? Second, is the current candle what we are looking for as a valid long entry, or would have it been better to get in on the previous candle?

Any help would be great.

can anyone help me with like or post the Forex Factory Calendar Indicator?pls
  • #924
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:38pm Dec 7, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting Jared
Below is a current chart. First of all is my swing fib correct?
I'll post the swings as I drew them last night. Stay tuned while I dig up some screen shots.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #925
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:47pm Dec 7, 2007 1:47pm
This is where I first put swings last night because the stuff before the swing high was just noise and finally I saw a defined "wave" starting to head downward, and then upward, within the Asian session before London started.

After my swing low, the bias turned to long just barely, and then a bear candle came and broke swing low, which is a trade not taken since the bias was just switched to long. So we would stand by and watch until it completes (reaches a short target or gets stopped).

It got stopped at pivot on the bull candle that followed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #926
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:53pm Dec 7, 2007 1:53pm
With the phantom short stopped out, that swing was complete and I drew a new swing which was just moving the low to the new low on the phantom short, since nothing else up/down had occurred to pull to. That's when the bias was long and a long trade would have been triggered but I was asleep and missed 20 pips at 5am EST. Then I don't see anything else for the day swing wise.
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #927
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:20pm Dec 7, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting Jared
I am following along this thread trying to understand the strategy, so bear with me if I don't get it yet.

Below is a current chart. First of all is my swing fib correct? Second, is the current candle what we are looking for as a valid long entry, or would have it been better to get in on the previous candle?

Any help would be great.

Yes that would be correct.
The Indicators I posted on the template I didnt realise, so you may have to go back in the thread and load them into your Indicators file in order for them to work correctly, or just delete them from your chart.
On this chart I will pull the Retracement fib now and continue to pull to each new high we make..If we do in fact continue up here next week.Once price retreats or backs away from the Retracement Fib High we can get a better gauge of where price will go next.By how price reacts to the fib levels of it.A bounce from its levels or a break of its levels and we look to the extentions of it and compare that to the last Up Move and Down Move levels.
Today we have a bounce from the Retracement pivot so we can expect to test the high again.A break of the high from today and we see we have 2.0367 Down moves Support level(now resistance) and then The T1 extention Of our Retracement fib and the Up Moves Pivot fib level occupying the same space at 2.407.
If we fail to break the high or reach the extention on the Retracement fib expect ranging and we'll switch modes to Intraday scalping.
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  • #928
  • Dec 8, 2007 5:52pm Dec 8, 2007 5:52pm
Looking ahead as to where we might be heading we have to go back in time and go over the last events leading up to the point in time we are now, So we will go back to the High made on Nov 9th @2.1161. Pulling our Up move fib to this level.(Example 1).We see price drop the Pivot or 50 Fib from this move and begins to retrace from there.At this point we want to place the Retracement fib on the retracement to the Up moves pivot where price makes the bounce at.(Example 2).
Now with the Upmove fib established and the Retracement fib measuring the retracement that occures after the high. We are watching how price will react once the Retracement fibs levels are tested.
What we see is price tests the levels and breaks from the short fib first indicating price will be going back down.The Retracement fib gives us targets of Long to 2.1470 and Short to 2.0043.Before price can reach those extentions the Long position will have to clear the Retracement fib levels again and for the Short extention from the Retracement fib price will have to breach both the Upmoves pivot and Short Fib levels to reach it.
To follow along with this we now use the Downmove fib in place of the Retracement fib since we have shown price is heading down and we will pull the low of the Downmove fib as new lows are made.(Example 3)
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  • #929
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:08pm Dec 8, 2007 6:08pm
Once the Down move fib is established we can use the Retracement fib on the move that occurs after the bounce and fails to break high.
Now looking at the Retracement fib on the retrace we get from the bounce we have closer targets of Long to 2.1014 and Short to 2.0169.
Once again we see the levels of the retracement fib broken to the Short side and The Upmoves pivot broken this time and price tests the Short fib of the Upmove. Price came within 10 pips of the Retracement extention now and is backing away..it doesnt necessarily mean price is going back long just yet.
Example4
Example5...Here is where we start pulling our Retracement fib and see as long as price is maintained above the Short fib level of the Retracement fib it will continue to go up.And as new highs are made leave the low in place and pull the high of the Retracement fib to each new high that is made.
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  • #930
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:19pm Dec 8, 2007 6:19pm
Where are the possible resistance points ahead of price that have the potential to stall or reverse it.There are 2 options here
Example 6...this example shows the most immediate resistance points price will encounter as it tries to rally back now.In this case we use the Retracement fib same as we would during Intraday scalping and pull from the latest moves it has made, this one is pulled from the last leg down before price stalled giving us resistance points of
2.0369 Retracement (Swing) Short fib level
2.0406 Up Moves Pivot fib level
2.0428 Retracement (Swing) Pivot level
2.0487 Retracement (Swing) Long level
2.0554 Down Moves Short fib level
I prefer this view Example 6

Example 7 is measuring price from the point it turned short at the High it made of 2.0831, the resistance points we get from this view are
2.0406 Up Moves Pivot fib level
2.0428 Retracement (Swing) fib level
2.0505 Retracement (Swing) Pivot level
2.0554 Down Moves Short fib level
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  • #931
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:30pm Dec 8, 2007 6:30pm
Now zoomed in to the 1 hour chart we see a close look at what is going on to this point.Looking at our Retracement fib we see its levels have already been tested once and have held even through the NFP from friday.
What Ill be looking for is if the high 2.0344 breaks, if it does we stand a very good chance of testing the Up Moves pivot level again which just happens to be the current T1 of our Retracement fib (2.0406)
A failure to break the high or reach 2.0406 and we stand a good chance of ranging.
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  • #932
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:38pm Dec 8, 2007 6:38pm
Hey Bo, I see you are still hard at the teaching game. Keep up the good work your helping a lot of people. Let me know when you want to go on tour!

I can here'em now....WE WANT BO, WE WANT BO, WE WANT BEER....ooops.
Robonacci com
  • #933
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:47pm Dec 8, 2007 6:47pm
Current Intraday view now with the knowledge of the higher timeframe (Daily) fresh in our minds we can trade from the Intraday chart as we make our way to these targets by scalping the 1 hour timeframe along the way.
Things of note:

We have crosses the envelope indicating the chances are high that we could go into a ranging period...

My SwingTrader2 indicator is showing momentum is slowly creaping up and has crossed the threshold of indicating long(red line) but it is a secondary indication

Price needs to be maintained above 2.0242 to consider Longs the best choice,Short should be at this point quick in and out of the market moves unless 2.0424/2.0227 gives way.Then the conditions switch to Shorts.

Wait until price makes it first move during Sun/Mon before entering to confirm the general sentiment is the same as where we left off Friday.
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  • #934
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:48pm Dec 8, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting SKUNNY
Hey Bo, I see you are still hard at the teaching game. Keep up the good work your helping a lot of people. Let me know when you want to go on tour!

I can here'em now....WE WANT BO, WE WANT BO, WE WANT BEER....ooops.
Maybe I should start marketing a beer then.....Bo'Beer
Im ready for the road again.
  • #935
  • Dec 9, 2007 5:19pm Dec 9, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting Bobokus
Maybe I should start marketing a beer then.....Bo'Beer
I'll wear the beer mule tshirt during the campaign. I'm happy to see no gaps on today's open for the daily long. Still +50 and wondering what to do with my stop.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #936
  • Dec 9, 2007 6:52pm Dec 9, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting Thexder
I'll wear the beer mule tshirt during the campaign. I'm happy to see no gaps on today's open for the daily long. Still +50 and wondering what to do with my stop.
Earlier today it did drop to 2.0290 but bounced from there to where it is now. It looks as if it will test support again before it can go up.
  • #937
  • Dec 9, 2007 8:06pm Dec 9, 2007 8:06pm
If I'm sitting here when the action starts and the bias is long short term, I'm going to scalp a long on top of the daily, but since I can't hedge I can't take any short setups right now.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #938
  • Dec 9, 2007 9:00pm Dec 9, 2007 9:00pm
Even though I have only done the Oct and Nov testing of the very short term and time intensive swing testing, the fact that one month was ranging and one was trending mostly gives me some satisfaction that I could find 300+ pips in either scenario even if they had to be "earned".

I'm still of course searching for the easier life taking fewer trades on longer time frames but for now I begin the week with my swing safety net wrapped around me and I say thanks to Bo for empowering me to figure out something that works for me, for now.

Who knows, maybe some day I can start my own mentoring thread. I'll always cite those that helped me get where I am.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #939
  • Dec 9, 2007 9:00pm Dec 9, 2007 9:00pm
Your broker doesnt allow trading in both directions ?
  • #940
  • Dec 9, 2007 9:02pm Dec 9, 2007 9:02pm
Quoting Thexder
Even though I have only done the Oct and Nov testing of the very short term and time intensive swing testing, the fact that one month was ranging and one was trending mostly gives me some satisfaction that I could find 300+ pips in either scenario even if they had to be "earned".

I'm still of course searching for the easier life taking fewer trades on longer time frames but for now I begin the week with my swing safety net wrapped around me and I say thanks to Bo for empowering me to figure out something that works for me, for now.

Who knows, maybe some day I can start my own mentoring thread. I'll always cite those that helped me get where I am.
Glad I could help you get started then.
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