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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #421
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:51am Dec 7, 2007 5:51am
So much for Chicken Little -

Took my run at the CAD this morn and had a great run -

Seereye
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #422
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:51am Dec 7, 2007 5:51am
Quoting DutchTrader
1.4900
Not crazy.

I bought a little with stop 1.46, for the long run. Let's see if Uncle Bernie give us the 1.5 milestone.
  • #423
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:51am Dec 7, 2007 5:51am
Quoting Turtle
So the question for Bernanke now is .25 or .50 basis points........
What's interesting is the New Jobs went up & Unemployment number @ 4.7%. Came down. I am wondering if it is because:

a) Unemployment benefits ran out for some folks.

b) New jobs created were seasonal, such as working in shopping malls for the holidays, dressing up as santa, etc.

Imho, we will have a clearer picture next month, when all the cheer is over and reality sinks in.

Any comments?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #424
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:53am Dec 7, 2007 5:53am
Quoting DutchTrader
1.4900
I think that I will go long once the stock market opens.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #425
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:53am Dec 7, 2007 5:53am
Quoting Ash
What's interesting is the New Jobs went up & Unemployment number @ 4.7%. Came down.

Imho, we will have a clearer picture next month, when all the cheer is over and reality sinks in.

Any comments?
I think bets for 25bp are going to increase compared to 50bp. We will have that information later on, I guess.

Recent figures add a few to "small cut" cause, but add nothing to the no-change cause.
  • #426
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:56am Dec 7, 2007 5:56am
But I may be wroooong

Stock futures immediately rose above fair market value after the report's release.

"They've set the table for traders," said Scott Nations of Fortress Trading.

"Yesterday when we got the subprime deal it really removed the rest of the risk from the market."

Fed funds futures show the market is split 50-50 on whether the Fed will cut the rate by 25 or 50 basis points, with the early reading after the jobs report indicating a move toward the higher number.
-CNBC
  • #427
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:57am Dec 7, 2007 5:57am
Quoting Ash
What's interesting is the New Jobs went up & Unemployment number @ 4.7%. Came down. I am wondering if it is because:

a) Unemployment benefits ran out for some folks.

b) New jobs created were seasonal, such as working in shopping malls for the holidays, dressing up as santa, etc.

Imho, we will have a clearer picture next month, when all the cheer is over and reality sinks in.

Any comments?
I'll take "B".........
  • #428
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:58am Dec 7, 2007 5:58am
The dollar is still in the tank, plus did anyone notice the DOWNWARD revisions? Truth is I'm not sure if we get .50. Listen the way things are looking if we get .25, which is very possible with this decent US Data coming out and frankly there'd be nothing stopping us from another bullrun vs the USD
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #429
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:59am Dec 7, 2007 5:59am
Quoting DutchTrader
The dollar is still in the tank, plus did anyone notice the DOWNWARD revisions? Truth is I'm not sure if we get .50. Listen the way things are looking if we get .25, which is very possible with this decent US Data coming out and frankly there'd be nothing stopping us from another bullrun vs the USD
I agree
  • #430
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:02am Dec 7, 2007 6:02am
cesar, ash,

Don't be surprised if we hit 100.00 on AJ
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #431
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:04am Dec 7, 2007 6:04am
2.0200 ish or 2.0400 ish?

come on cable, make up your mind please?

before you've blew up ....
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #432
  • Edited 6:13am Dec 7, 2007 6:06am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting DutchTrader
cesar, ash,

Don't be surprised if we hit 100.00 on AJ
I have been long since 96.xx also, Keep your eye on EUR/AUD.

Actually, the daily trend has changed. If anyone looking to short EUR/AUD, look for a good entry point. Trade at your own risk.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #433
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:12am Dec 7, 2007 6:12am
Bets may increase for a 25 or 50bp move, nevertheless the Eur Fut small specs seem to be extremely optimistic - with sound reason, yet a jolt in volume at that moment may serve the purpose of providing liquidity necessary for some nice profit taking, and unwinding of massive amounts of leverage. Curious to see what happens.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #434
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:28am Dec 7, 2007 6:28am
Quoting Leugimp
Bets may increase for a 25 or 50bp move, nevertheless the Eur Fut small specs seem to be extremely optimistic - with sound reason, yet a jolt in volume at that moment may serve the purpose of providing liquidity necessary for some nice profit taking, and unwinding of massive amounts of leverage. Curious to see what happens.
Good to see you around. Just come more often, not once a quarter :
  • #435
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:01am Dec 7, 2007 7:01am
Quoting cesarnc
50 min to go

http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/nuclear_blast.jpg
Not exactly the "blast" I was expecting, but yet, a blast

Attached Image
  • #436
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:02am Dec 7, 2007 7:02am
From CBOT ( Based on yesterday's close - updated each night)

Based upon the December 6 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-1/2 percent to 4-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on December 11.

In addition, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 50 percent probability of a further 25-basis point decrease in the target rate to 4 percent (versus a 50 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate decrease).
  • #437
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:03am Dec 7, 2007 7:03am
Quoting cesarnc
Not exactly the "blast" I was expecting, but yet, a blast

Well, maybe in January.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #438
  • Dec 7, 2007 7:43am Dec 7, 2007 7:43am
Quoting cesarnc
Good to see you around. Just come more often, not once a quarter :
Actually, I am here rather often, just dont post that much - Im glad to see you rollin strong. As far as time goes, i am too busy trying to help people around here(NJ) avoid forclosure, and buying up all of this horeshit debt. Its amazing what desperate people do to not have to deal with their problems - they'll sell you the world for pennies on the dollar(which is micropennies in euros). I guess I would say that things are and have been getting jucier and jucier over here - any further catalyst of desperation and fear will only augment the chance to position for the greatest redistribution of wealth known to man.

I know im sounding very "infommercial", but hey like my mother always told me............

If you can't bet em......scrotum
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #439
  • Dec 7, 2007 10:40am Dec 7, 2007 10:40am
Quoting Leugimp
Actually, I am here rather often, just dont post that much - Im glad to see you rollin strong. As far as time goes, i am too busy trying to help people around here(NJ) avoid forclosure, and buying up all of this horeshit debt. Its amazing what desperate people do to not have to deal with their problems - they'll sell you the world for pennies on the dollar(which is micropennies in euros). I guess I would say that things are and have been getting jucier and jucier over here - any further catalyst of desperation and fear will only augment the chance to position for the greatest redistribution of wealth known to man.

I know im sounding very "infommercial", but hey like my mother always told me............

If you can't bet em......scrotum
My mother aways told me: If there are people crying, sell tissues LOL...

Anyway, this was by far the most disgusting NFP ever. Even the stock market is having a hard time to find its way.

This is wierd, coz DJ is being the arena for desperate buyers or desperate sellers. Not desperate "to hell with it, I'm going home".
  • #440
  • Dec 7, 2007 11:01am Dec 7, 2007 11:01am
Good size moves in the bond market anyway.
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