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NFP Survey - so we can find the good calls

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 7, 2007 4:58am Dec 7, 2007 4:58am
Bloomberg`s survey at the bottom of the page

Couldn't figure out how to place the table here...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...wLI&refer=home

* Seen comments that NFP might be coming 200K, based on the strong ADP.
Time will tell. half an hour to go... http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...tingstereo.gif
  • #2
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:21am Dec 7, 2007 5:21am
If you were to look at the heavy weights

Citi 125K
Deutche 125k
Goldman 100K
Bank of Tokyo 137k
Lehman 125k
Bear Sterns 120k

All prediciting over 100k per your link
+ Charts Happen
  • #3
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:28am Dec 7, 2007 5:28am
Quoting cesarnc
Bloomberg`s survey at the bottom of the page

Couldn't figure out how to place the table here...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...wLI&refer=home

* Seen comments that NFP might be coming 200K, based on the strong ADP.
Time will tell. half an hour to go... http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...tingstereo.gif
I expect 135k
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:37am Dec 7, 2007 5:37am
94K, not far from the average.

See you next month
  • #5
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:41am Dec 7, 2007 5:41am
Quoting cesarnc
94K, not far from the average.

See you next month
Same time, same FF Page!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #6
  • Dec 7, 2007 10:47am Dec 7, 2007 10:47am
Just for the records, worst market action for a NFP ever!

I was expecting a "nuclear BLAST", not ..... THIS:
Attached Image
  • #7
  • Dec 7, 2007 4:27pm Dec 7, 2007 4:27pm
Maybe i'm getting something wrong, but...

USD Nonfarm Employment 94K (actual) / 75K (forecast)
USD Unemployment Rate 4.7% (actual) / 4.8% (forecast)
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.5% (actual) / 0.3% (forecast)

All these three quite important parameters showed better performance as it was expected, so that it should have had a positive impact on the US economy and its currency for some period of time. So maybe i’m wrong, but i would expect the USD to go up against Euro (or at least to see some big spikes in this direction). But if you look at the EUR/USD chart for 07.12.07 by the time these news were released and the time after, you will see what the much bigger spikes (and the afterward movement) went in the opposite direction (USD was declining and the Euro was rising).

At the same time we had a huge reaction of the market (USD went down from 1.47XX to 1.45XX) on some change of an insignificant indicator a few days ago.

I understand what the market is not always logical, but i see no sense in this at all?! So, please maybe someone could clarify this to me or give his view of this situation…
  • #8
  • Dec 7, 2007 5:25pm Dec 7, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting Casablanca


I understand what the market is not always logical, but i see no sense in this at all?! So, please maybe someone could clarify this to me or give his view of this situation…
It is logical, but a different logic this time. The core here is how much is Fed going to cut rates. 25bp or 50bp. Either way, it's dollar bearish.

Economic data releases must be traded having in mind the big picture. Not the instant market's reaction.
  • #9
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:48am Dec 8, 2007 2:48am
You are definitely right, Cesarnc. Having the big picture of the market in mind is he key to successful forex (or whatever) trading.

If the core here is how much Fed is going to cut rates, and 25bp or 50bp - either way, dollar is bearish, why we had such a strong bearish movement of the Euro a couple days ago???
  • #10
  • Dec 8, 2007 3:40am Dec 8, 2007 3:40am
Quoting Casablanca
You are definitely right, Cesarnc. Having the big picture of the market in mind is he key to successful forex (or whatever) trading.

If the core here is how much Fed is going to cut rates, and 25bp or 50bp - either way, dollar is bearish, why we had such a strong bearish movement of the Euro a couple days ago???
I don't know.
  • #11
  • Dec 8, 2007 4:31am Dec 8, 2007 4:31am
Based on that NFP...it's seems like folks are calling their bluff.

Monday and Tuesday should be interesting......this should set the trend until the end of the year.

HOLLA
  • #12
  • Dec 8, 2007 6:14am Dec 8, 2007 6:14am
Quoting Casablanca
You are definitely right, Cesarnc. Having the big picture of the market in mind is he key to successful forex (or whatever) trading.

If the core here is how much Fed is going to cut rates, and 25bp or 50bp - either way, dollar is bearish, why we had such a strong bearish movement of the Euro a couple days ago???

Casablanca, the answer is simple, the Euro had reached a crossroad as to wether it wanted to go with the Minor trajectory that has been in progress since August 16 this year(a part of the bull trend), or go with the current trajectory (bear) that started from 1.4967. It made its choice to keep its structure.
Please do not confuse trajectory with trend. A trend is just short term support and resistence, a trajectory is price's destiny in order to maintain its whole structure.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #13
  • Last Post: Dec 8, 2007 8:49am Dec 8, 2007 8:49am
First of all thanks for the answers to all of you! That’s a good point 30XTci, although it is everything but simple. I mean it is not that hard to come to the conclusion that the market has made up its mind (not quite sure if it has one) to keep its “minor trajectory - part of the bull trend” now - when you look at the chart afterwards… But it’s hard to realize this in real time (during the NFP announcement) or even before.

To be honest for me it was not clear at all, that the market will not show any reaction to 3 positive news announcements in a row (being already in a short bearish USD trend before this news). By the way, I always used to think that the trend is something of a long term. I just distinguish for my self long term trends and short term trends. But in the end it’s what ever word you like, as long you are on the right side :-)
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