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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,181
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:46pm Dec 6, 2007 2:46pm
Great MP3 today as always Phillip and thanks for all your help.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,182
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:59pm Dec 6, 2007 2:59pm
guys plz comments abt this pattern i think the prices must touch this corective pattern chanel lower line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,183
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:06pm Dec 6, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting Delta
Look at the graph in: zoom out. I think that this pair is in chanel. Sometimes it was testing the support line and sometimes the 200, so it is possible to go few pips below 200.
Hi Delta!

Thought you said you have just started demo trading? I am so impressed w/your daily chart (I have the same channel, and I've been using it almost all year as my major reference point!

Also, it is really interesting to note that price has followed the same daily pattern as the decline after the 8/07 rally -- today corresponded w/8/13 (i think).

I too thought that price would retest the 89 before continuing downward -- but if it really is playing out like before, we won't see that -- just straight to the 200 (and we do have different fundies now). I'm just going to plan around what the MACD says.

Shoot...as always, way to long a post. Just wanted to say how impressed I was with your daily observation!! Great Job!!!!

& welcome to the greatest trading community ever
  • #9,184
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:08pm Dec 6, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Its much easier if you plan your trades, follow your plan and stop chasing every signal.

This is the last time I'll post so harshly (after that your sucess is up to you) -- You have to learn the market. Study is important. Have you been drawing trendlines? Are you observing price action? That RB on G/U was clearly consolidation before rate decision (and you could have been absolutely killed w/that long if the market hadn't already anticipated it) -- the cut was a "surprise." and the market can run hundreds of pips in minutes and your stop will most likely be slipped. Now, you would have been very clever if you had bought the bounce at the longterm trendline after the rate decision -- did you notice that it had longterm support at 2.0173ish? This would have also been in sync. w/the current MACD direction. No matter what it is very foolish to have an open trade hours before a rate decision.

Forex can smash your dreams faster than you can say What happened? It can brutalize your spirit. It can also reward you handsomely for developing a strategy/battle plan and following it. The less you trade, the more you make. I said this before, and it is the last time....You have to practice trading historical data. You have to see what works and what doesn't and what your expectency is. You absolutely have to learn what tools you like to use to do your analysis! Many have come into this biz and not lasted because they didn't do the basic excercises which would allow them to understand the playing field. Don't be one of them! Once you develop a "trader's eye," then you may take some short-cuts and some shorter term trades. Before then, you will only kill off your account and your enthusiasm. Many great traders on this forum have honed their skills for years and can tell you it took much longer than they ever expected -- I am one of them (trader who thought the market could be mastered in a month only to find it took me 1.5 years before I was consistently profitable)!

OK. That's the end of the lecture. Hopefully it didn't go in one ear and out the other. Some day, when you are ready, you will have the thought to do the homework and it will be an "AHA" moment -- and you will start to papertrade historical data and practice your skills (heck, even those who trade for a living alot time each week to test). Until then, may Lady Luck be in your corner. Stop the madness (the habits you develop now are the ones that will be the hardest to break 2 years from now).


Best,
Pips
Thank you for your words Pips4. They are not lost on me. I have done back testing, gone over the nice lessons more than a few times, and demo traded. I knew going live would be tough, but a step I had to make due to physcology reasons. I am learning more about myself than I ever expected. I know this is a long journy and there is a lot to learn.

I should have closed the GPBUSD trade when I was up 15 pips, due to the bank reporting the next day. I got greedy and did not jump out. I should have never left the trade open with a bank reporting.

Thank you again, I learned a lot just from your words in your post.
  • #9,185
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:13pm Dec 6, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting aboammar
Hi all

Have a look on the charts

Hi aboammar!

Thankk you for posting these patterns for all to see. They really are helpful for seeing the 1 hour/4 hour harmony! Think I've told you in the past how much I like your analysis (like it matters, eh?). I think you are very thorough and your charts are pretty.

Looks like you made some pips today! Yippeeee!!!
  • #9,186
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:27pm Dec 6, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you for your words Pips4. They are not lost on me. I have done back testing, gone over the nice lessons more than a few times, and demo traded. I knew going live would be tough, but a step I had to make due to physcology reasons. I am learning more about myself than I ever expected. I know this is a long journy and there is a lot to learn.

I should have closed the GPBUSD trade when I was up 15 pips, due to the bank reporting the next day. I got greedy and did not jump out. I should have never left the trade open with a bank reporting.

Thank you again, I learned a lot just from your words in your post.
Thank you, unlv_tj.

This post was difficult for me to write b/c it was very stern (and that is no fun! & In real life, I'm not a stern, disciplined person at all). But I really was trying to say something very important -- something that could save you years of grief and hopefully make your journey easier and profitable sooner.

Taking a trade before an interest rate dec. is always very risky, but if you have one open and it is in profit, it is a good idea to protect yourself -- yeah, you know it...I'll be quiet.

Ohhhh...1 last thing (LOL! I really do have a big mouth in real life)...Isn't it amazing how much you learn about yourself on this journey? It is the best way to find out who we really are as people and what are strengths and weakness are. Sometimes, this gig can play horrible tricks on our minds too...that is why it becomes so important to know that your trades don't define you as a person -- only as a trader. Hope that made sense. (i.e. don't let a string of bad trades shake your overall confidence or faith in yourself. Only KNOWING that you CAN do this and be profitable is what matters.)

Sorry for the book again --

Happy weekend and happy trades!
Pips
  • #9,187
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:32pm Dec 6, 2007 3:32pm
Quoting mradnan
guys plz comments abt this pattern i think the prices must touch this corective pattern chanel lower line
Hi mradnan!

Honestly, I really don't know the answer. I have a channel on my chart (see Delta's post)...and price hasn't touched the bottom line for a very long time (it usually hits the bottom fib line of the channel, which is where price is now -- give or take 100 pips). I do agree w/you on the possibility of Sterling weakness going forward (this cross may have just decided to become very difficult to trade for fundamental reasons -- we shall see). I'm inclined to sell strength w/MACD conf....but I'll let the charts tell me.

Looks like you are a wave counter, eh? does the count agree w/the decline (I don't know elliott theory).

Happy trading!
Pips
  • #9,188
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:33pm Dec 6, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
That is where my TP are. I intend to go there. That engulfing candle off bottom support made me pull the trigger. Currently the price is at 50% Fib retracement of latest downmove. So I really took the waves on. But I have my flippers on and some safety guards to watch me. At least i will not drown on this one.

It's really unbelievable how price follows these fib levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,189
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:38pm Dec 6, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting smnitro1
It's really unbelievable how price follows these fib levels.
Isn't that because it just so happens to neatly coincide with the 50 level?
  • #9,190
  • Dec 6, 2007 6:21pm Dec 6, 2007 6:21pm
Type: CT Trade
shorted @ .8785
stop @ .8802
target @ .8860

I took the trade because Aud on the 4 hr was bouncing off the 89. I used the 30 min as an entry, because I'm only playing for 25 pips and risking 17 pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd4.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd30.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #9,191
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:50pm Dec 6, 2007 10:50pm
Heres what weve been waiting for and the nfp will probably mess it up.....3 hours left on candle it may look very different by then......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,192
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:54pm Dec 6, 2007 10:54pm
chf mirroring euro
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  • #9,193
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:58pm Dec 6, 2007 10:58pm
nfp might ruin this too.... dang it , just about the time we got some rythym going......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,194
  • Edited Dec 7, 2007 7:54am Dec 6, 2007 11:04pm | Edited Dec 7, 2007 7:54am
I went short EurUsd. Hanging man and shooting star off 21ema on 4H.
Early on 1H after strong 1H candle

Entry 1.4606
Stoploss 1.4644
1st TP 1.4540

Edit 1
Got stopped out at 1.4644
Afterthought
07:00
I went for an early 1H entry after the price pulled back to the 21ema on 4H with strong bearish 1H candle
Risks
No 4H signal yet to go short. The pullback to 21ema and the strong 1H move away was my motivation for going short. It was more of a positioning as the posibility could have been that the move was in the direction that supports the NFP.
1. 200sma support
2. Stoploss should have been above 21ema. Too large.
3. Friday and NFP

See post 9207 for the chart
  • #9,195
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:08pm Dec 6, 2007 11:08pm
Agree with you Jim

looks like a TC is in the works new downward resistance line confirmed, found resistance at the 21 ma still a fast trend. spot gold is getting shot to bits. MACD bar growing.

my next candle opens at 6pm AEST looking forward to it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd.jpg Size: 491 KB
  • #9,196
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:09pm Dec 6, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting JimDandy
Heres what weve been waiting for and the nfp will probably mess it up.....3 hours left on candle it may look very different by then......

Maybe get a bounce on the 200 (E/U) will make for a better entry.... only a little over 8 hrs to NFP.... I'll most likely pass since I'm away from the desk all day tomorrow... Good luck..
  • #9,197
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:10pm Dec 6, 2007 11:10pm
Dear Phillip 1st tp just above bottom channel, correct?
  • #9,198
  • Edited Dec 7, 2007 7:33am Dec 6, 2007 11:17pm | Edited Dec 7, 2007 7:33am
I didn't post because I was busy getting stuff done before the bears game, but I shorted eur/usd @1.4641 using the 1 hr as my entry. My first target was 1.4613 which was hit, and now the rest of the position is set to (be), and will trail on the 21 once it gets moving.

I also set aud/usd to (be). On my chart aud has traded down to my target but my target order did not fill.

*my original eur stop was 1.4664

**update
2nd position in eur/usd was stopped out at BE
aud/usd position was stopped out at BE
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.usd4.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.usd1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #9,199
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:21pm Dec 6, 2007 11:21pm
Quoting EricthePip
Maybe get a bounce on the 200 (E/U) will make for a better entry.... only a little over 8 hrs to NFP.... I'll most likely pass since I'm away from the desk all day tomorrow... Good luck..
What is NFP?, cheers!!!
  • #9,200
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:47pm Dec 6, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting ragz
What is NFP?, cheers!!!
Non-farm payrolls report.
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