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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #881
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:03am Dec 6, 2007 11:03am
Anyone else having aproblem with attachments? Its not letting me post templates or pics?
  • #882
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:05am Dec 6, 2007 11:05am
Quoting Jared
Has anybody tried this with GBP/JPY?
I haven't looked anywhere but cable so far but in this thread you'll find GBP/JPY examples of implementing this successfully.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #883
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:08am Dec 6, 2007 11:08am
Quoting Bobokus
all you have to do is apply what you are doing scalping to the longer term fibs....They work the same way.
Once I gain more short term confidence I'll do a long term evaluation the way I would tend to look at short term and see what I come up with that might work for me. For now if I have to take some losses I can only afford the smaller time scale losses...don't want my first big time frame trade to be a -70 acceptable loss unless I bank enough on swing level successes to cover the cost.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #884
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:09am Dec 6, 2007 11:09am
Quoting Jared
You are using 1 hour candles for scalping right?
Yes 1 hour for everything I'm looking at.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #885
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:19am Dec 6, 2007 11:19am
Quoting jarcrocker
Ok, Ive read through the entire thread!! My mind is reeling. I did your fib exercise with the up and down fibs. This is for long-term fib trading. so they would be equivalant to your daily and intermediate fibs? If your retracement fib has to be at least 30 pips across for decent mesurement, What(if any) is the minimum span for your intermediate fib? Your daily has to span the largest swing that encompasses most recent movement from your daily chart. Your intermediate would be the most recent retracement or correction swing after your daily. I want to make sure I understand long term fibs before I go to scalping or intraday fibs. BTW thanks a ton Thex!! Your consistent OCD(obsessive compulsive diorder) regarding your trades helps a ton. I can't thank you guys enough! About the intermediate, does it follow a swing or do you just drag the highs and lows?
Yes they would be the equivelant of the Daily(Currently the up move)and Intermediate Fibs(currently the down move fib)...The Retracement fib is the equivelant of the Swing fib.That was just the best way I could think of to help it make sense.
The up move fib showed the last move up, then the Down move fib showed the down move that is still going....once price makes a retracement up we can start pulling the Retracement fib...it just hasnt really started doing any retracement yet.
As far as the minimum of 30 pips thing , that only apply's to the Swing fib used Intraday.Other fib levels drawn from the Daily chart will all be we'll over 30 pips anyway.
  • #886
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:21am Dec 6, 2007 11:21am
Quoting jarcrocker
thanks a ton Thex!! Your consistent OCD(obsessive compulsive diorder) regarding your trades helps a ton.
I'm already benefitting from all the sleepless dedication in the documentation last month, in forgetting some of my own developed techniques of analysis until I looked back at what I'd done. When I become enthusiastic about something I can't stop until I'm content about it. At least now I'm able to sleep, maybe too much. I need to be awake when these trades take place.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #887
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:21am Dec 6, 2007 11:21am
Quoting jarcrocker
Anyone else having aproblem with attachments? Its not letting me post templates or pics?
I havnt noticed any problems with attachments today
  • #888
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:23am Dec 6, 2007 11:23am
Attachments are fine for me too, I can see and post them today.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #889
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:28am Dec 6, 2007 11:28am
Well my computer is acting up. It won't let me post pics. I was hoping you would check 'em for me. Anyway, So what about the intraday again. Thats the only one not represented in your fib exercise thats used in a trending market. Thats basically for in-day highs and lows with-in the last 24 hours?
  • #890
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:37am Dec 6, 2007 11:37am
Hey Bobokus,

It really helps when you post a current chart (or template is even better) so I can follow along and make sure I understand what is going on.

Right now I am monitoring the recent down move that currently ranging around 2.0228, the up move short, which btw it has penetrated, but has not formed a new candle body below it yet (on the 1 hour chart).

You mentioned you would go long if the up move short holds, what will you do if a new candle forms beneath it? Will you wait or will you enter short at that point?
  • #891
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:41am Dec 6, 2007 11:41am
Quoting jarcrocker
Well my computer is acting up. It won't let me post pics. I was hoping you would check 'em for me. Anyway, So what about the intraday again. Thats the only one not represented in your fib exercise thats used in a trending market. Thats basically for in-day highs and lows with-in the last 24 hours?
Correct the Intraday fib is drawn over the last days movement to give you a support and resistance area the following day.
  • #892
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:46am Dec 6, 2007 11:46am
Quoting Jared
Hey Bobokus,

It really helps when you post a current chart (or template is even better) so I can follow along and make sure I understand what is going on.

Right now I am monitoring the recent down move that currently ranging around 2.0228, the up move short, which btw it has penetrated, but has not formed a new candle body below it yet (on the 1 hour chart).

You mentioned you would go long if the up move short holds, what will you do if a new candle forms beneath it? Will you wait or will you enter short at that point?
Ill post an updated Template once the new Daily candle forms tonight, and yes what we want to see is if the new Daily candle forms above or below 2.0227.
  • #893
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:52pm Dec 6, 2007 4:52pm
Here is the current template and a pic.The Pic doesnt show it but the Intraday and Swing fibs are there.
Roughly risking 40-60 pips by getting in now but if price moves lower and bounces, ill reinforce it with another position, A break of 2.0227 and all bets are off and considering shorts again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #894
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:03pm Dec 6, 2007 5:03pm
At the risk of confusing things, I thought this was worth considering.
Looking at a daily chart and drawing a fib across a major up move, yesterday's activity produced a pin/hammer reversal bouncing off of a 61.8% retracement of that up move on the daily time frame plus bouncing off of horizontal support formed in the ranging of October. Good time to go long if things start looking....up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 80 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #895
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:10pm Dec 6, 2007 5:10pm
Quoting Thexder
At the risk of confusing things, I thought this was worth considering.
Looking at a daily chart and drawing a fib across a major up move, yesterday's activity produced a pin/hammer reversal bouncing off of a 61.8% retracement of that up move on the daily time frame plus bouncing off of horizontal support formed in the ranging of October. Good time to go long if things start looking....up.
Yep, Im gambling on it, Ive already rolled the dice.
  • #896
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:11pm Dec 6, 2007 5:11pm
Quoting Bobokus
What we want from the Range set of fibs is to give us a set of fibs that the price will bounce around in during a ranging period, in this case it would be from the high of wednesday to the low we made on friday. The explanation for this is back at the beginning i think but it goes like this..the 62 envelope is our trend identification as long as the price stays to one side of the envelope we are trending in that direction, as the price crosses through it the trending move has ended and we will most likely go into ranging, this set of fibs we use at the highest and lowest point of that crossing to give us the operating range price will bounce around in during the ranging period..If it breaks from this set (range set) we are likely to go into trending move again.It will also give us an idea of where we are in the ranging period...the top, bottom or whatever. I dont normally base a trade off it or use it for exits its more a reference for ranging.Basically using the 62 envelope and this set together as 1 tool.
Remember this post (#120) from way back when? It just goes to show how much more reading I have to do .

Anyway, I want to make sure I understand this. Does this mean you do not use the range fib at all when the market appears to be trending? What about right now for example, Cable just plummeted, and the envelope is pointing down. Do we use no range fib at this point?
  • #897
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:17pm Dec 6, 2007 5:17pm
Quoting Jared
Remember this post (#120) from way back when? It just goes to show how much more reading I have to do .

Anyway, I want to make sure I understand this. Does this mean you do not use the range fib at all when the market appears to be trending? What about right now for example, Cable just plummeted, and the envelope is pointing down. Do we use no range fib at this point?
Thats correct we dont need it (Range Fib)during a trending move, its more for tight ranging periods.
  • #898
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:18pm Dec 6, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting Jared
What about right now for example, Cable just plummeted, and the envelope is pointing down. Do we use no range fib at this point?
I get confused about when to use range fibs but I'll take a guess at the current situation and see what the boss says.

At this point I would say we are well below the envelope trending down (even though we are expecting an up move to come now).

If we do go up and cross the envelope, Then re-cross the envelope back down, there is a risk of ranging and the range fib could be pulled across that upward move that first crossed the envelope. Then we'd keep an eye on the range high/low until it's broken, taking us out of ranging.

Not 100% sure if I got it right.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #899
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:25pm Dec 6, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting Thexder
I get confused about when to use range fibs but I'll take a guess at the current situation and see what the boss says.

At this point I would say we are well below the envelope trending down (even though we are expecting an up move to come now).

If we do go up and cross the envelope, Then re-cross the envelope back down, there is a risk of ranging and the range fib could be pulled across that upward move that first crossed the envelope. Then we'd keep an eye on the range high/low until it's broken, taking us out of ranging.

Not 100% sure if I got it right.
Thats right, its used in conjuction with the envelope...most times once its crossed ending a trending move, you pull the range fib across that move, leaving it there until the high and low are broken.If the market still does not go back into a trending move you keep pulling across the largest move that does cross the envelope, repeating the process until price clearly breaks away and stays either above of below the envelope.
  • #900
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:29pm Dec 6, 2007 5:29pm
I just went long with a stop around 226, which happens to be the 61.8% retrace of the daily pin from yesterday that I'm gambling on. I figure I earned that much in the last few days with the swing break outs so worst case I give it all back. I have no targets set right now. Just going to let it ride. One of my other intuitions is usually after a steep move, I expect a snap back so we've had a steep down move, a day of consolidation and now it's time to go up, hopefully before I get stopped out.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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