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Did I miss the train?

  • #21
  • Edited 3:36pm Dec 2, 2007 2:59pm | Edited 3:36pm
Rudenstein

You are correct in that there was also the rejection of the EU constitution in 2005 and I was going to mention this in my previous post but I thought I had already ranted too much.

There were also bombings in London along with a perceived slowing UK economy leading to an interest rate cut in August 2005.

But the US$ was already gaining before these two occurrences and I suppose these two occurrences helped the US$ even more. I also guess that it was easier for the big boys to push the EUR/GBP down to finish the yearly range rather than change course in 2005.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #22
  • Dec 2, 2007 3:30pm Dec 2, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting pujolshomerun
I bought EUD/USD at 1.480 because I thought I would go up to 1.5 someday. But it looks like it is reversing. It is -200 pips now. Did I miss the chance or is it going to go up to 1.5 somehow? There is a possibility that FOMC would lower their interest rate again and USD would go down more. Do I need to sell it or do I have to keep it until the next FOMC?
My advice: Get out with the loss ASAP. Withdraw all your money ASAP. Learn how to trade with a demo account or tiny, real account. Never risk your hard-earned money until you know you will win. If you continue to trade with real money, it will all be gone sooner than you think.

Since we all must pay our dues before we can consistently succeed, you might as well pay as little as possible.
  • #23
  • Dec 2, 2007 3:43pm Dec 2, 2007 3:43pm
pujolshomerun,

How much did you leverage? This should figure into cutting your losses or hanging in there. Are you trading cash or borrowing on margin?
(But, yes, getting out right way when the market turns against you is usually the right thing to do.)

Even with 2% margin used, you could potentially get margin called before EUR/USD strengthens again.

Indeed you picked the wrong time to bet on the EUR/USD stengthening, but I also think that you deserve better advice than has been giving to you so far. We don't know how much he has bet and if he has bet a lot then we all know what he is going through.


rudenstein
  • #24
  • Dec 2, 2007 4:25pm Dec 2, 2007 4:25pm
-200 pips is all I need to know.

Unless his real name is Buffett or trading a micro account.

And also the euro is trading 350 pips below 1.5000
  • #25
  • Dec 2, 2007 4:43pm Dec 2, 2007 4:43pm
my message is dont get confused guys. usa fundamentals have not changed in just 3 days. usd fundamentals keeps deteriorating.

1.50 is just a matter of time and i think is real soon.

1) Euro refuses to cut rates. or signal bullish stance cause inflation.

2) Usd cut a half point.

we could see runs above 1.50, the the danger is market intervention but keep in mind usa is in trouble everywhere, from wars, deficits, oil prices, housing bubble, credit crunch.
  • #26
  • Dec 2, 2007 5:47pm Dec 2, 2007 5:47pm
Quoting acidguy
my message is dont get confused guys. usa fundamentals have not changed in just 3 days. usd fundamentals keeps deteriorating.

1.50 is just a matter of time and i think is real soon.

1) Euro refuses to cut rates. or signal bullish stance cause inflation.

2) Usd cut a half point.

we could see runs above 1.50, the the danger is market intervention but keep in mind usa is in trouble everywhere, from wars, deficits, oil prices, housing bubble, credit crunch.
Are you and others replying to previous posts or to the original post which said he was down 200 pips. Isn't that the important point. Not whether the US$ is going down or not. The trend is down but it doesn't mean he can hang on till EURUSD gets back to 1.50xx

In any case the starter of this thread hasn't posted anything after his original post so without further information as to his position we are all guessing.
  • #27
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:30am Dec 4, 2007 3:30am
Do as per the Jacko (see journals thread) and anti-hedge it. Close it down, wait for price to drop a further 50 pts, and set your buy at the level you closed down and wait for it to be picked up on the way up. It's got it's drawbacks, but holding on right now isn't going to feel great if it goes against you further - which I believe it will.
  • #28
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:12am Dec 4, 2007 4:12am
In my opinion, we are at a decision-taking area on EURUSD from a T.A. point of view. Have a look at the EURUSD Daily chart below. It all depends on whether that channel bottom (1.4600) holds or not. Once again that's only from a T.A. outlook.
Attached Image
  • #29
  • Dec 4, 2007 12:47pm Dec 4, 2007 12:47pm
if the daily closes above the 10ema then it may go up some more.
  • #30
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:16pm Dec 4, 2007 1:16pm
Gotta get some stops and money mangement in there......

3%........................

Also as I think mentioned before look at the related pairs to ensure there are no spurious spikes....

Hope this is a practise account................
  • #31
  • Dec 6, 2007 12:19pm Dec 6, 2007 12:19pm
well it bounced right off the daily 50ema. Why I don't try pending orders like that I'll never know. Most of the time if you are in a good trend when the price hits the 50ema it will bounce the first time. A good number of times it bounces 2nd time too.
  • #32
  • Dec 6, 2007 6:00pm Dec 6, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting llambert3
well it bounced right off the daily 50ema. Why I don't try pending orders like that I'll never know. Most of the time if you are in a good trend when the price hits the 50ema it will bounce the first time. A good number of times it bounces 2nd time too.
It's also following a clear trend from 17th of August (unless I drew it wrong, only two point connection - you can draw steeper at Sep 19th with more connections). That is, up, and while it tested the 50EMA today it also tested both trendlines. It almost looks like a pino price bar too, and the bar thats forming now is bullish so far. My completely uneducated and unexperienced guess (seriously, I'm very new) is that it will continue to test the trendline as it resorts back to the smaller timeframe EMA's and if it breaks the 50/trendline on a close then perhaps a reversal?

Yes? No?

Edit: When I say reversal I mean retrace, I don't really believe that it's going to reverse.
  • #33
  • Last Post: Dec 9, 2007 2:28pm Dec 9, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting renegade7
It's also following a clear trend from 17th of August (unless I drew it wrong, only two point connection - you can draw steeper at Sep 19th with more connections). That is, up, and while it tested the 50EMA today it also tested both trendlines. It almost looks like a pino price bar too, and the bar thats forming now is bullish so far. My completely uneducated and unexperienced guess (seriously, I'm very new) is that it will continue to test the trendline as it resorts back to the smaller timeframe EMA's and if it breaks the 50/trendline on a close then perhaps a reversal?

Yes? No?

Edit: When I say reversal I mean retrace, I don't really believe that it's going to reverse.
yep I agree, though I think it is going up again some now.
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