Did I miss the train? | Forex Factory

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Did I miss the train?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 30, 2007 5:16pm Nov 30, 2007 5:16pm
I bought EUD/USD at 1.480 because I thought I would go up to 1.5 someday. But it looks like it is reversing. It is -200 pips now. Did I miss the chance or is it going to go up to 1.5 somehow? There is a possibility that FOMC would lower their interest rate again and USD would go down more. Do I need to sell it or do I have to keep it until the next FOMC?
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2
  • Edited 6:20pm Nov 30, 2007 6:13pm | Edited 6:20pm
Hope is a four letter word.

Are you married to your position? If so, why? What does your position bring to the relationship. Confusion, fear or perhaps some form of weird excitement (S&M)?

Don't you feel you can find another position just as worthy and deserving of your devotion again some day, or does this one have to be THE position to make you wealthy?

Well, our time is up for this week. Please make the check out to cash and we'll see you next week. OK?

PS Wow! 200pips! I don't even charge that much per session.
  • #3
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:47pm Nov 30, 2007 7:47pm
Haven't you noticed that the EUR/USD rallied strangly alone a week ago? In my opinion, this was factoring the next rate cut, in case it came...Most markets factored the awaited rate cut...Gold fell, too early, the US market rallied, just after the comments of the Fed officials, wheat rallied, too early as well, bonds rallied sharply, almost the first market to factor the rate cut..

In my opinion, most markets were set up for a rate cut and thus the Feds seem to be pinned to do it....Looks like they didn't want to, but the markets forced them with their action, especially the bond market...They know that the effect of their decision is worthless if they cut, however, they know that they will create a 2 days disaster if they don't cut as most markets will correct with bonds falling sharply along with the stock market coupled with a sharply rising dollar...I don't think they are looking for such a combination.

Regarding your position, you are the only one to tell about it...You are the one who opened the position and you are supposed to be the one who decide when to close the position....It doesn't work the other way around....


Thanks,

Nader
  • #4
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:55pm Nov 30, 2007 7:55pm
I know very little about all this stuff you are talking about... in fact I am simply not qualified to say anything... except this one time I did feel that just because everyone is now clamoring for another rate cut... it seems we now are going to get one, even though as you said... I don't think they want to do it !!! I was just thinking that today or yesterday... I know nothing further...

One thing I do believe though... is that even though it is already priced in... I don't think it is ever FULLY priced in...

Quoting narafa
Haven't you noticed that the EUR/USD rallied strangly alone a week ago? In my opinion, this was factoring the next rate cut, in case it came...Most markets factored the awaited rate cut...Gold fell, too early, the US market rallied, just after the comments of the Fed officials, wheat rallied, too early as well, bonds rallied sharply, almost the first market to factor the rate cut..

In my opinion, most markets were set up for a rate cut and thus the Feds seem to be pinned to do it....Looks like they didn't want to, but the markets forced them with their action, especially the bond market...They know that the effect of their decision is worthless if they cut, however, they know that they will create a 2 days disaster if they don't cut as most markets will correct with bonds falling sharply along with the stock market coupled with a sharply rising dollar...I don't think they are looking for such a combination.

Regarding your position, you are the only one to tell about it...You are the one who opened the position and you are supposed to be the one who decide when to close the position....It doesn't work the other way around....


Thanks,

Nader
  • #5
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:25pm Nov 30, 2007 8:25pm
You haven't mentioned what your stop is, or whether you even have one? Who can tell if EURUSD will resume uptrend. It is always about probabilities. Although the uptrend may not be over, the correction may continue far longer than holding a long trade seems justified.

From a look at the daily chart if todays (friday) low gives way next week with another daily bar lower close then look out, next stop is down by 1.42xx

But let me add that since it closed on the low for the day and the week as well, I would expect some kind of retrace. If this happens I would take the opportunity to cut my losses and exit. But you have to decide what your plan is.

GL
  • #6
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:04pm Nov 30, 2007 9:04pm
Has it occurred to you that your temperament may not be suited to forex trading? If you keep trading like this they will hand your head to you on a plate no matter how much money you have in your account.

Good luck.
  • #7
  • Nov 30, 2007 10:44pm Nov 30, 2007 10:44pm
well you could do one of two things depending on what you really think and really believe will happen.

1) You can get out now and take the loss.

2) If you are sure it will hit 1.50, you could hedge now for 100 or 200 pips taking that profit to help the situation especially if you are going to hold anyway. I think it is time to retrace some now, but I think at some point 1.50 is in the future.

Now, when usd/cad was near 1.00 I was thinking it will hit 1.00 but that is it. Wow was I wrong as it kept going. Could be the same thing with the 1.50 mark.

Now here is something to think about. If you look at the charts, the daily had a pin bar that just cracked. The monthly bar is a pin as well, but there were several failed pins already since the move up. Hopefully for your sake it should stop at the daily 50ema around 1.45. However the usd/chf also just cracked a pin though its moved up some since. Good luck buddy.
  • #8
  • Nov 30, 2007 10:48pm Nov 30, 2007 10:48pm
we may look back at this a year from now and 1.4967 ended up being as close to 1.50 as it got, especially considering the charts. If it were me, I'd probably take the loss now and move on, but just know as soon as you do, it will hit 1.50 and you will be mad, but if you don't get out it will keep going down and you will wish you'd gotten out. I don't know how forex knows what we think and does the opposite. It just does.
  • #9
  • Dec 1, 2007 6:47am Dec 1, 2007 6:47am
Quoting Micro-MiniMe
Are you married to your position? If so, why? What does your position bring to the relationship. Confusion, fear or perhaps some form of weird excitement (S&M)?

lol I nearly got a heart attack lool
  • #10
  • Dec 1, 2007 6:55am Dec 1, 2007 6:55am
You need to start using a stop loss and learn why where and how.
You can't start a thread for every trade you take to decide it's exit.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #11
  • Dec 1, 2007 7:02am Dec 1, 2007 7:02am
If you traded what the market was actually doing rather then what you predicted, then you'd of been in profit.

It might hit 1.5 one day but no one can tell you when.
  • #12
  • Dec 2, 2007 12:48pm Dec 2, 2007 12:48pm
Ahhh, so the "happy days are back". Arab sovereign wealth funds, going on US bank shopping sprees, the promise of liquidity injections, both private and gov't... what could be better!


But it ain't over yet. There is still that hot potato, called debt! Fundamentally, the problems that crept up in August are still here. In fact one could argue that these problem are simply being pushed away for the time being... bad idea.
I say, let the train wreak happen now. If not, more shit will be hitting an even bigger fan in the not too distant future. Denial is a killer.

My sense? EUR/USD will hit 1.5. WHEN? Well, a fed rate cut could further increase interest in carry trades as investors move away from low yielding currencies (i.e. USD) to higher yielding ones. And since the climate is right for carry trades at the moment, this is a real possibility. So in other words, people could move away from the dollar not only because it's in vogue right now, but for the reason that traders always seek higher yielding returns during "happy days" And at least for now (I'd say perhaps 3 months) we are in happy day land.

rudenstein
  • #13
  • Dec 2, 2007 1:45pm Dec 2, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting llambert3
well you could do one of two things depending on what you really think and really believe will happen.

1) You can get out now and take the loss.

2) If you are sure it will hit 1.50, you could hedge now for 100 or 200 pips taking that profit to help the situation especially if you are going to hold anyway. I think it is time to retrace some now, but I think at some point 1.50 is in the future.

Now, when usd/cad was near 1.00 I was thinking it will hit 1.00 but that is it. Wow was I wrong as it kept going. Could be the same thing with the 1.50 mark.

Now here is something to think about. If you look at the charts, the daily had a pin bar that just cracked. The monthly bar is a pin as well, but there were several failed pins already since the move up. Hopefully for your sake it should stop at the daily 50ema around 1.45. However the usd/chf also just cracked a pin though its moved up some since. Good luck buddy.
i think llambert has made some good points. i would also add that hedging can be difficult. sometimes it is easier to just cut your loss and start over. i have found it much easier to recoup a loss that way. you know, clean slate, put it behind you. you should also ask yourself why you entered the trade, and if you still feel the same way today. as for the euro going to 1.50, sure it could still happen, but i wouldn't be buying euros up here. i think most of the big boys will wait for better levels to get in. looking at the cot charts, it appears we could be in for a decent retracement, maybe 1.44. either way, i would sell into rallies until then. but that's me.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #14
  • Dec 2, 2007 1:49pm Dec 2, 2007 1:49pm
In 2004, I remember that every man and his dog was screaming $1.40 for the EUR and $2.00 for the GBP. The EUR failed at around $1.3666 and the GBP at around $1.9549. Not round numbers in my book.

The US$ gained in 2005 due to the Fed raising interest rates (although they had been raising in 2004 anyway from multi-year lows). I also seem to remember that the ECB were far more vocal about the level of the EUR in 2004 than they are now given that the EUR economy is supposedly more stronger now (than in 2004) so I think their pain barrier for the EUR may be higher.

In 2007, it seems that every man and his dog is screaming $1.50-$1.60 (and I've even seen higher levels stated) for the EUR but the GBP seems to have lost some favour at the moment. But the difference now is that the Fed is decreasing interest rates and the problems that drove the US$ down in 2004 (low interest rate differential and current account deficit etc) are at the forefront again. Let's not even think about the US taking on Iran.

I live in the UK and work for a small building company in London. My partner, who likes to sup on a few bevvies down the local, mentioned that a lot of his buddies who are in the building industry are moaning that work seems to have dried up as of late and my guess is that it will only get worse due to the credit crisis. The housing market figures are obviously reflecting this slowdown as well - but house prices (especially in London), in my opinion, are breathtaking and it amazes me that they have even reached these levels.

But I digress, because it is not the GBP you are stuck with at the moment. Much like the ECB, you have to decide what your pain barrier is and take action as appropriate.

Good luck and good trading to you
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #15
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:07pm Dec 2, 2007 2:07pm
LTCM all over again. Greenspan cut rates down to 1 percent to save everybody and bail out his buddies at LTCM, now Bernanke is going to do the same. Bureacrates!
Politicians love a falling dollar despite what they say.
Take a report.
  • #16
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:17pm Dec 2, 2007 2:17pm
Patience,

The French also rejected the EU constitution in 2005 strengthening the USD vs the EUR.

rudenstein
  • #17
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:35pm Dec 2, 2007 2:35pm
You have made the right conclusion , EUR/USD will reach 1.50 for sure , there are just two problems:

a) it may take months to do so

b) it may have heavy corrections on it's way to 1.50
  • #18
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:42pm Dec 2, 2007 2:42pm
Quoting CateFul
LTCM all over again. Greenspan cut rates down to 1 percent to save everybody and bail out his buddies at LTCM
LTCM's bailout came long before rates were lowered to 1 percent. Roughly 4 years beforehand.
  • #19
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:44pm Dec 2, 2007 2:44pm
If you have enough cash, hold it. I think it will retrace, but it might not come back to 1.4820 soon. What I would do is look for a retrace then hedge your trade by selling. You should be able to leg out but be prepared to hold it for a while. I have a short position at 1.43, and I have it hedged at 1.47. I will hold it till i can leg out even if it takes a year. This one got away from me, but I'm willing to hold on for a long time rather than lose $30K. Don't tell me it won't hit my two points sometime in the future. I have been trading forex for 8 years and it always comes back. I bet it will even go back to 1.30 but it might be 2010.
  • #20
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:56pm Dec 2, 2007 2:56pm
I say hold the position and hedge with another pair like usd/chf if you can't sell eur/usd at the same time (the next time you see a sign of eur/usd heading south). It will keep you alive a little bit longer as you wait for euro to reach 1.50. Good luck.
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