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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #321
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:33am Dec 6, 2007 5:33am
Quoting gene22
SL, I thouht I had to respond to this, so here it goes, don't take it the wrong way.

The rules of the society/culture carry far more weight than those particular rules in that situation to those particular monks, for the lady to disgrace herself by not following tradition on the way to her groom would be catastrophic. But by a monk agreeing to carry her across even though it went against certain rules of their order, simply meant doing a good deed for the overall good of the lady. So you see he had to sacrifice his rules in order for the lady not to sacrifice hers. But as soon as he was done he had let go of that as something that took place but nothing more. It was an action against his rules, but it was something that he had no choice in. Hence mind over matter analogy, sometimes we might do things that are out of our control, but we must be able to let them go in order to move on and concentrate in the NOW, the moment, not dwell in the past.

Hope this clears things up for you
I agree

The monk made a decision based on his discretion.

He determined the overall balance between the greater right and the lesser wrong and made a decision.

A fast decision was made and then the action was not analysed anymore.

Great thread FTI

Many thanks
  • #322
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:56am Dec 6, 2007 5:56am
Thank You fti for your giving spirit and the lessons you teach. I enjoy this thread so much, change nothing. Your time frame works for me.

Be flexable and forgetful; Change is not all bad, but dwelling on the past is negative to forward advancement. (my evaluation of your Monk story)

Leighsww I appreciate your comments, all of them, as it gives a second dose of fti's deep thoughts. I guess I need a brow beating to learn anything.

Thanks again
  • #323
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:59am Dec 6, 2007 5:59am
Quoting gene22
SL, I thouht I had to respond to this, so here it goes, don't take it the wrong way.

The rules of the society/culture carry far more weight than those particular rules in that situation to those particular monks
Which is why I suggested pitting personal belief vs society. Freedom of choice means they are free to do either, but will have to realize their actions will shape accordingly.

Choosing to accept and allow the value system that reinforces a shame/disgrace based sanctioning of the individual and valuing aesthetic or traditional rulesets over personal comfort, freedom and individuality is up to anyone to decide for themselves. If they choose to bow to the "greater power" instead of fighting for their own belief, then that will shape who they are in turn.

Quote
for the lady to disgrace herself by not following tradition on the way to her groom would be catastrophic
It's only catastrophic if the surrounding people and society view it as such, which is a social agreement and not an unbreakable fact.

Quote
it went against certain rules of their order, simply meant doing a good deed for the overall good of the lady.
So the same as I said - as long as you have an excuse you can break the rules. Why join and have the rules then?

If I write a rulebook and a plan and then don't follow either in trading - why did I write them?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #324
  • Edited 6:44am Dec 6, 2007 6:05am | Edited 6:44am
Hi ALL,

@ seekinglight,
Remember, that in the trading context, there are no rules,
we make up the rules ourselves, so try not to enchain ourselfs.

I see we have a bunch of very good traders on hand.
more comments pls.
Ok then I'll check in again tom.
good night for now.
  • #325
  • Dec 6, 2007 6:43am Dec 6, 2007 6:43am
@Zoran
I just thought I'd jump in and clear up some misunderstandings with regards to volume in the spot forex. The volume indicator is not volume in the sense of exchange traded markets. It is simply the number of ticks or price changes that were registered during the specified time interval. While this can offer some clue as to the actual volumes being traded, it cannot be viewed as reliable volume data in the true sense.

Another suggestion (a bit off topic, but important) - you may want to have a look at some fundamental analysis in order to filter out some false signals from your charts. I think your 231.00 long could have been avoided that way.

@ALL
I also see a lot of pip counting in this thread... This has been discussed thoroughly in other threads, with the conclusion that the number of pips gained/lost over a period of time is not necessarily an indication of success or failure. It is quite possible to have a negative pip total and still have a rising equity curve - which is the only meaningful measure of success.

I've been lurking around this thread for a few days already and I like it. Gotta check out the Euro rate decision now, but I'll be back. Cheers.
  • #326
  • Dec 6, 2007 6:52am Dec 6, 2007 6:52am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

@ seekinglight,
Remember, that in the trading context, there are no rules,
we make up the rules ourselves, and enchain ourselfs.

I see we have a bunch of very good traders on hand.
more comments pls
Brilliant, that was one of my biggest psychological problem to overcome some years ago. As soon as I became flexible, one with the flow of the market, I saw how damaging the previous dogma had been. If i'm not a machine, why would I act like one? Than it would simply be better to put the rules in the program and let the program trade. But so far as long as i know, the best programs will not outperform the best traders.

Seeking, I don't want to argue here, but you are looking at this from your personal persepective, what if you try to be the lady, or the monk, and not now but back then, do you see the difference?! Now going even deeper, what if you try to be the river across which the monk came with the lady on his back?
Seriously now, jokes aside?
  • #327
  • Dec 6, 2007 7:11am Dec 6, 2007 7:11am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

@ seekinglight,
Remember, that in the trading context, there are no rules,
we make up the rules ourselves, so try not to enchain ourselfs.

I see we have a bunch of very good traders on hand.
more comments pls.
Ok then I'll check in again tom.
good night for now.
Hi, fti.

If there are no rules in the trading, so on what principle/criteria to set up an entry and exit a position? Or there are to many rules for different occasions?

David
  • #328
  • Edited 9:14am Dec 6, 2007 7:29am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting fierceman
@Zoran
I just thought I'd jump in and clear up some misunderstandings with regards to volume in the spot forex. The volume indicator is not volume in the sense of exchange traded markets. It is simply the number of ticks or price changes that were registered during the specified time interval. While this can offer some clue as to the actual volumes being traded, it cannot be viewed as reliable volume data in the true sense.

Another suggestion (a bit off topic, but important) - you may want to have a look at some fundamental analysis in order to filter out some false signals from your charts. I think your 231.00 long could have been avoided that way.
Thanks for clearing up the volume indicator. It makes sense now.

Even without the fundamentals, the action did speak for itself. It was a fairly strong sell-off and I did see it at the time but I chose to stick to my original analysis. I even mentioned it was not a reversal but a retracement however, my actions treated it as a reversal rather than a scalp. I have changed my strategy to avoid that type of problem in future.

This can be related back to fti's story in that I was not "flexible". My interpretation being similar to gene's. I made up my mind beforehand and decided to stick to it instead of adapting to the new condition. I wanted to be right instead of listening to the market. Yes, I knew these rules beforehand but it is my inexperience that made me execute that particular trade. As Dopey mentioned, there are no secrets - there is only mindset.

So my problem is that although I know some of the important rules, it takes time and practice to make it second nature. It is people like fti and Dopey's mentor who had achieved that level a long time ago.
  • #329
  • Dec 6, 2007 7:38am Dec 6, 2007 7:38am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

@ seekinglight,
Remember, that in the trading context, there are no rules,
we make up the rules ourselves, so try not to enchain ourselfs.

I see we have a bunch of very good traders on hand.
more comments pls.
Ok then I'll check in again tom.
good night for now.
"The market is always right" is a rule I'd like to believe. "Don't trade on hope" is another.
  • #330
  • Dec 6, 2007 7:40am Dec 6, 2007 7:40am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Nice post, doremi! Overtrading is common for new traders, because making a trade is exciting and it gives you an adrenaline rush. It becomes psychologically addictive just like a drug, and you go back for more (and more). With time it tends to become less exciting, and the number of trades decreases. But you can help yourself along by reviewing your trades on a weekly basis, trade by trade, and with a weekly pip total. When you see the facts staring you in the face, that if it wasn't for those ill advised trades you'd have met your pip target, it really does help pull in the reigns. For me, my overtrading was like taking two steps forward and one step back. Once I started being more discriminating, the pips began adding up.

P.S. - Patience is something everyone has, but few practice. Exercise it regularly and it will grow strong!

Thanks PC for the kind words and reminder. Patience is indeed a virtue..easy to say but hard to practice(human self-destructive nature)....If one can master it.....it's surely a road to success.
  • #331
  • Dec 6, 2007 8:28am Dec 6, 2007 8:28am
I'm now trying to encourage my right brain to take a more active part in my trading and this analogy popped up as soon as I read FTI's post.....

A senior trader was mentoring a newbie when one of his new probationary dealers had a problem with a loosing trade. The senior trader stepped in, against his normal trading rules and took a loss helping out the dealer, before continuing with his own trade and completely ignoring his loss.

The newbie, not really understanding why a loosing contra trend trade had been taken, was unable to get over the loss and allowed it to influence his view of the market and his trading decisions.

The newbie still had to learn not to Mind the loss which did not Matter as there was a vailid reason for it and thus it had no effect the senior trader's mindset and on his continued trading.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #332
  • Dec 6, 2007 10:00am Dec 6, 2007 10:00am
I have no idea wat why or how , but the poem desiderata is epiphanic ... thank u fti for sharing ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #333
  • Dec 6, 2007 11:35am Dec 6, 2007 11:35am
Excellent analogy! Clearing the mind of excess baggage, instead of dwelling on it until it becomes a burden!


Quoting Islander
I'm now trying to encourage my right brain to take a more active part in my trading and this analogy popped up as soon as I read FTI's post.....

A senior trader was mentoring a newbie when one of his new probationary dealers had a problem with a loosing trade. The senior trader stepped in, against his normal trading rules and took a loss helping out the dealer, before continuing with his own trade and completely ignoring his loss.

The newbie, not really understanding why a loosing contra trend trade had been taken, was unable to get over the loss and allowed it to influence his view of the market and his trading decisions.

The newbie still had to learn not to Mind the loss which did not Matter as there was a vailid reason for it and thus it had no effect the senior trader's mindset and on his continued trading.
  • #334
  • Edited 2:42pm Dec 6, 2007 12:38pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting SeekingLight
So basically it's okay to do evil/break your own rules/abandon your values if the moment seems opportune etc as long as you hush it up ASAP and forget about it?

They should have told her to take off the shoes, offered theirs and told her that if anyone were to hassler her about the shoes before she got to the other side they'd protect her(or just started up a revolution against feet crippling in the first place)...that woulda been a lot nicer and wouldn't have gone against their own rules.

SeekingLight ... just something to think about ... let's say you were the Monk and you came across another woman who was screaming for help because she was crippled and stuck in her house that had caught on fire, she was all by herself with no one else around to help her.

Would you leave her to burn because of your rigid commitment to your rules?

* edited - Rules do have their place and is needed sometimes to keep one having a discipline to follow.

However, for me, there comes a point in time, when the situation arises, where we have to weigh out the consequences which governs our actions. In the case where the detriment would be far greater when sticking to the rules, then the saying ... "There are always exceptions to the rules," would be so very appropriate.

------

Wow, some really GREAT insights here to that story. It seems it can be about so many things depending on whose perspective (the Monk, the Young Monk and the Lady) you are looking at.

My assessment, would have been that of Islander's and Scoundrel's ("dwelling on the past is negative to forward advancement") ... for the Young Monk's lesson (which I would assume to be the story's main moral), I too would interpret it to be ... to not hang on to baggage/burdens (resentments/grudges/losses/things that upset us/having a bad day/anything that clouds the mind/etc.) and to just "let it go."

Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Overtrading is common for new traders
Ah yes, this is true and can definitely be one of the definitions that define a "newbie," lol. I can accept that. LOL, with that definition, I was definitely a newbie until last month ... now, I am intermediate-newbie, haha.

doremi ... the reason I couldn't define "newbism" as just someone who lacks patience, not achieving consistent profitabilities, etc. is because there are some traders fairly new to the business who I've read who have been achieving success with their trading in a very short time (they have the mindset and have achieved/implemented successful skills very early on), whilst some "experienced" traders are still finding their niche (not consistent profitabilities), amongst having some bad habits (like impatience, lack of discipline, hoping rather than using proper analysis, etc.).

In my opinion, I feel the main thing that separates a "newbie" from a "polished" trader is the mindset and the motivation behind the trades. I also would say that a polished trader loses newbism when they become more "grounded" in both their mindset and trading skills (like I mentioned about some who accomplish success very early on).

I still refrain from using the word "experienced" to define all things and rather use the word "polished" or maybe the word "successful" would be the most appropriate, because like I said before, experience doesn't mean successful, it just means one has been doing it longer, but it could very well be in terms of losing/being unsuccessful, lol.

Okay, I need to "let go" of this "newbism" phrase, lol. It doesn't matter, all that matters is for all of us to get to that point of consistently profitable trades, lol.

Quoting Scoundrel
Leighsww I appreciate your comments, all of them, as it gives a second dose of fti's deep thoughts. I guess I need a brow beating to learn anything.
Oh my, thanks, Scoundrel!
  • #335
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:35pm Dec 6, 2007 2:35pm
Grasshopper quiried, "Master, why must I catch the rock?"
  • #336
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:43pm Dec 6, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting leighsww
Ah yes, this is true and can definitely be one of the definitions that define a "newbie," lol. I can accept that. LOL, with that definition, I was definitely a newbie until last month ... now, I am intermediate-newbie, haha.
Hi Leighsww,

I wasn't trying to "define" a newbie. Sorry if it came out that way . . .

  • #337
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:52pm Dec 6, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Hi Leighsww,

I wasn't trying to "define" a newbie. Sorry if it came out that way . . .

Hey Pips_Cruiser!

Oh my, no apology necessary , cuz you are quite right in that being one of the major symptoms of a so-called "newbie," lol

I'm just glad that I've finally graduated somewhat to the next level (intermediate, lol) and cured myself of that particular symptom, at this point :
  • #338
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:55pm Dec 6, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting fti
A Lesson about Mind Over Matter.
A young pretty Maiden, A Monk and A Young Monk.
(Not Another Crossing the River Story)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Once upon a time long....
Just love these fables fti, they encourage philosophy in the way they are written, it's a bit of a lost art in writing these days I think.

Anyway, my take on this is when confronted with a decision, weigh up the pro's and con's (risk/reward), in this case the Monk thought that the reward for the Maiden far outweighed his risk of being punished in the given situation.
He made a plan and decided to carry it out, once he had done this he didn't waste time thinking about what he may or could have done, he had made a calculated decision and it was done so he let it distract him no longer to get on with the business at hand .
  • #339
  • Edited 3:43pm Dec 6, 2007 3:22pm | Edited 3:43pm
Quoting Gene
we must be able to let them go in order to move on and concentrate in the NOW, the moment, not dwell in the past.
Oh, I missed this the first time. Gene had the same interpretation as Scoundrel, Islander, and me.

This is why I have to go back and reread posts more than once : (can miss things the first time and possibly some good info/insights)

* edited - Hmmm, now would this be a case of dwelling in the past? haha :
  • #340
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:42pm Dec 6, 2007 3:42pm
I might be off the mark here, but I think not, after coming back to this thread in several hours and reading different responses from different people on the monk story I see a completely different purpose to the story, well actually two, the first one is for the student to identify him/herself with a story, a response, second is for the teacher to have an opportunity to zoom in on an actual/potential problem with the students way of viewing/interpreting things, actual psyche by a response(everyone is different) Ohh and maybe one more, since I got to this point, since it is now a matter of our own knowledge of what the answer was for each particular individual, it is now a matter of selfrealization of what if any steps we can take in order to deal with our own, if any, but different for everyone blocks.

lol, in a manner of speaking this is a story that teaches everyone something unique to that particular person, very clever...
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