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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #181
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:20pm Dec 5, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting Moe
if it goes up we could see 600
I'm looking for the next 1,000 pips cable is going to spree. I hope the weekly trendline holds and Bernanke cut 75 so we will have a beer together at 2.13
  • #182
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:36pm Dec 5, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm looking for the next 1,000 pips cable is going to spree. I hope the weekly trendline holds and Bernanke cut 75 so we will have a beer together at 2.13
I don't know brother, my gut feeling is that they may not cut. This downside that we have seen, may have been all based upon rumors. Don't get me wrong, I want them to cut because I have a short from 2.1085 still open.
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  • #183
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:50pm Dec 5, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm looking for the next 1,000 pips cable is going to spree. I hope the weekly trendline holds and Bernanke cut 75 so we will have a beer together at 2.13
lol, with that kind of pips your buying the beer.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #184
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:52pm Dec 5, 2007 4:52pm
So you think there is a chance they might raise it ??? Heck... everyones got a different direction in mind... !!! And today being a very strange day... I am personally thinking the ADP number was pulled right out of a hat.... someone is picking numbers to make things happen... like maybe now big players want $$$ stronger... so they just pick a nice number out of the hat... !!! Got to be very careful tomorrow... and no retrace today on lots of pairs... signs of things going to pop some more pretty quick...

Quoting Moe
if it goes up we could see 600
  • #185
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:12pm Dec 5, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
So you think there is a chance they might raise it ??? Heck... everyones got a different direction in mind... !!! And today being a very strange day... I am personally thinking the ADP number was pulled right out of a hat.... someone is picking numbers to make things happen... like maybe now big players want $$$ stronger... so they just pick a nice number out of the hat... !!! Got to be very careful tomorrow... and no retrace today on lots of pairs... signs of things going to pop some more pretty quick...
no i think even if they don't raise it price will go up.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #186
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:23pm Dec 5, 2007 5:23pm
I'm loving all of the new fears of a rate cut. When they don't, that will be our bounce off the weekly trendline support.
  • #187
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:31pm Dec 5, 2007 5:31pm
GU has dropped 300 pips (as predicted by caesar). So watch your backs when the UK Rate Hike is announced this 7AM est Thursday. UK IP is to be released too at 4:30; there is more steam if this is lower, but I doubt it would move up if its higher.

If you were fortunate to have your guns loaded before GU dropped, then be safe and put Stops.

Remember folks to be mindful of next week bad US data - it may even start early this Friday's NFP. When that starts to come in, GU will bounce back up. Key turning points for USD are NFP and FOMC followed by retails and CPI.

Rate Cuts are in the air; smell it and you can smell pips in your pockets.
  • #188
  • Dec 5, 2007 6:16pm Dec 5, 2007 6:16pm
From CBOT:

Based upon the December 5 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-1/2 percent to 4-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on December 11.

In addition, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 57 percent probability of a further 25-basis point decrease in the target rate to 4 percent (versus a 43 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate decrease).
  • #189
  • Dec 5, 2007 7:06pm Dec 5, 2007 7:06pm
Took a quick look in on the old Cable Update thread, saw at least 4 posts during the trading day of longs being initiated while GBP was still dropping.

Of course there will be some kind of retrace, especially if enough traders are positioned wrong before announcement, but anyone going long now is trying to be the hero. No thanks.
  • #190
  • Dec 5, 2007 7:44pm Dec 5, 2007 7:44pm
Financial Times -

Traders were caught on the hop on Wednesday as the FTSE 100 snapped back from two days of losses with its biggest one-day percentage gain in almost four months. The cue for the powerful rally came from surveys that showed service sector growth had slowed to its lowest level in more than four years in November and house prices had fallen for a third month running. Those reports raised hopes that the Bank of England would move to lower interest rates by 0.25 per cent today.
  • #191
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:10pm Dec 5, 2007 8:10pm
Quoting SunTrader
Took a quick look in on the old Cable Update thread, saw at least 4 posts during the trading day of longs being initiated while GBP was still dropping.

Of course there will be some kind of retrace, especially if enough traders are positioned wrong before announcement, but anyone going long now is trying to be the hero. No thanks.
they started going long at 400 and 350, most lost that battle.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #192
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:15pm Dec 5, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting SunTrader
Took a quick look in on the old Cable Update thread, saw at least 4 posts during the trading day of longs being initiated while GBP was still dropping.

Of course there will be some kind of retrace, especially if enough traders are positioned wrong before announcement, but anyone going long now is trying to be the hero. No thanks.
What was funny to me, is that everytime the cable took a pause waiting for the next news event you heard calls for a "long".

I keep thinking to myself, how can you step in front of this on coming train???? I mean cable dropped almost 150 pips before 0430, but yet you want to go long?????

Didn't make sense to me....hopefully they got out before major damage was done.

When in doubt...follow the trend.

Time to get some rest.....got a feeling these next two days are going to be WILD......

HOLLA
  • #193
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:24pm Dec 5, 2007 8:24pm
It's going to take a lot more than a 25 point rate cut to break the weekly trendline going back to July 06, especially since the Fed will cut rates next week and there is probably much more US weak data to come.
  • #194
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:41pm Dec 5, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting falcon232
It's going to take a lot more than a 25 point rate cut to break the weekly trendline going back to July 06, especially since the Fed will cut rates next week and there is probably much more US weak data to come.
The only thing is if the BOE does cut, well then everyone might start to believe that they will follow the Fed down with each of the Fed's subsequent cuts. If this were to turn out to be the case then there is no advantage holding GBP over maybe I don't know EUR or something else. Either way I think it would mean further weakness.

I show weekly trendline coming in around 2.01xx Is that what you have?
  • #195
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:51pm Dec 5, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
The only thing is if the BOE does cut, well then everyone might start to believe that they will follow the Fed down with each of the Fed's subsequent cuts. If this were to turn out to be the case then there is no advantage holding GBP over maybe I don't know EUR or something else. Either way I think it would mean further weakness.

I show weekly trendline coming in around 2.01xx Is that what you have?
Yeah, I have 2.0150 or so. I'm not worrying...GBP will do its best when expectations are low, like they are now. If I'm wrong, I'll wait until we close below the trendline.
  • #196
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:53pm Dec 5, 2007 9:53pm
Low expectations + Better than expected data = GBP back up again
  • #197
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:02am Dec 6, 2007 2:02am
Big day today... Finally to end our speculative rush here...

And cable already down.. Looks like the no-change will be the surprising action from BOE right now .

Quoting Moe
they started going long at 400 and 350, most lost that battle.
So my bet is on yet?
  • #198
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:10am Dec 6, 2007 2:10am
"Cliffhanger trading" today... Living and learning



Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England policy makers face a ``cliffhanger'' interest-rate decision today as they juggle the threat of faster inflation with signs the housing market is heading for recession, a survey of economists shows.


Twenty-eight of 62 analysts anticipate the bank will reduce its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to 5.5 percent, the biggest split since June 2004. Reports in the past week showed U.K. house prices fell the most in a decade in November and growth in services slowed to the weakest in four years.
  • #199
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:16am Dec 6, 2007 2:16am
Quoting cesarnc
Big day today... Finally to end our speculative rush here...

And cable already down.. Looks like the no-change will be the surprising action from BOE right now .



So my bet is on yet?
boom, it blew up, what happen.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #200
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:21am Dec 6, 2007 2:21am
eur/usd is still droping, usd/chf is going up, and pound you know got's it own mind
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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