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Lazy analyses thread

  • #21
  • Dec 2, 2007 5:07pm Dec 2, 2007 5:07pm
The carry is another animal all together, I'm tweaking my analyses now, we are bearish in the mid term to possibly longer, short term yes could be a bullish opportunity, mostly choppy action though the way I see it as of now. Here is a nice setup on the eg I'm posting 2 charts longer term and short, we have a nice counter play that had setup and gave another entry, last one for me at the neckline 0.7125 to 0.7030. Mid term we have a breakout on the bullish wedge, the fundies support this as well for now, so a nice little run ahead of us with a breal of the wedge and an impulsive wave 3 up, well as implulsive as this pair can get lol.
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  • #22
  • Dec 2, 2007 6:29pm Dec 2, 2007 6:29pm
Quoting gene22
Here is a nice setup on the eg I'm posting 2 charts longer term and short, we have a nice counter play that had setup and gave another entry, last one for me at the neckline 0.7125 to 0.7030. Mid term we have a breakout on the bullish wedge, the fundies support this as well for now, so a nice little run ahead of us with a breal of the wedge and an impulsive wave 3 up, well as implulsive as this pair can get lol.

Hey, you stole my July idea!

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...57&postcount=5




I find it very cool that you have the same count as me now =)

Can't nobody say currency moves are not predictable.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #23
  • Dec 3, 2007 2:03am Dec 3, 2007 2:03am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hey, you stole my July idea!

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...57&postcount=5




I find it very cool that you have the same count as me now =)

Can't nobody say currency moves are not predictable.
lol
  • #24
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:35am Dec 4, 2007 2:35am
Quoting gene22
Zooming in to an immediate future we can clearly see a H&S pattern on the daily, there are a couple of possible necklines they are marked in yellow, possibility one calls for a retracement ot a broken neckline around 111.30 which we had just completed, another possibility calls for a slightly higher retracement to 111.60-75. Price action needs to be watched closely around these levels. Also if you look at the daily there is a smaller h&s pattern on the very right of the chart, that had happened allready. Zooming in to a 15 min we can see that the 5 corrective waves up terminated around 111.30. Looking at MACD we can see a negative divergence pointing out to a retrace to 110.50 area and possibly even deeper to 109.15. I'm favouring a complete turnaround upon ju reaching 111.60-75 areas, it could go higher. We will see a pullback to the areas indicated but that to me does not mean that the correction is over, for now I'd like to see where the price would be around the 6th and 7th of this week, from the time point of view the correction has a high probability of ending at that time.
So, to recap, I still see aa area of 100 as an immediate target. Small intraday trades are possible both ways, note areas indictaed. Will start building up short positions higher than 111.30 all the way up to 113.60, stop just above 116.
Will post Gu analyses in a few hours, and then we will attempt to put it all together to get the most benefit of carry trade readjustment on the geppy.
Thanks for your analysis - especially the time part which is sadly lacking elsewhere - also your putting together UJ and GU to form the picture for GJ.

I'll not clutter up your thread with any charts, but just note that so far this morning, UJ has held at its 61.8% support, also the 200ema on my 30min chart. Apart from the resistances you've mentioned, the Monthly Pivot is now at 111.44. Now we need a nice rumour before the data later this week to kick UJ upwards....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #25
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:56am Dec 4, 2007 2:56am
Quoting Islander
Thanks for your analysis - especially the time part which is sadly lacking elsewhere - also your putting together UJ and GU to form the picture for GJ.

I'll not clutter up your thread with any charts, but just note that so far this morning, UJ has held at its 61.8% support, also the 200ema on my 30min chart. Apart from the resistances you've mentioned, the Monthly Pivot is now at 111.44. Now we need a nice rumour before the data later this week to kick UJ upwards....
You can just say me haha, no reason to be obscure, I find it very funny that he calls this thread "lazy" while im being a tight mouthed a-hole on mine
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #26
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:08am Dec 4, 2007 3:08am
Hi Islander, the ranges are tightening, the markets are getting coiled for a push, can't say that my view had changed, but on the same token can't say that I like what I'm seeing either. Cable is undergoing a complex zigzag, looks heavy but can easily try 2.08 and even 2.1050, from the time point perspective cable should of been at a much lower levels by now, so at least to me this hints at a possibility of a pretty wide range trading till the 1st, 2nd week of January, possibly the 7th should give an indication. I'm still short biased cable for the entire 2008, but it is boring and it's just taking it sweet time.
  • #27
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:10pm Dec 5, 2007 12:10pm
Are you in any JPY longs yet? I tried to throw out some rope, didcha get it?


What are the magic charts saying your side? =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #28
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:15pm Dec 5, 2007 1:15pm
Here, since we got lotsa nice loony charts here, let me post this one before EURUSD moves too fast to fill it out
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #29
  • Dec 5, 2007 7:15pm Dec 5, 2007 7:15pm
Hi SL, yea I got in on the euro from the very top, 1.4950, been taken profit and readjusting, today was a very nice day, EU/G didn't quite worked as I was anticipating, got some pips, but still wasn't happy that it didn't go to my target area. As far as the ju goes, I had a small scalp from the 108 area, allready closed it. Don't feel like reentering at this point. My bias is still very short on this pair, I'll look at the PA aroung the 113.60 area, right now we have a nasty looking cup and handle on the daily that's pointing to 115.25-40 area if we break 111.30-70 convincingly. I wouldn't be surprised at that but it would tick me off as a long term persepective points to 101 figure at the moment, monthly retrace till January is highly possible, but than again lets see what the price tells me, I'm not a fan of that pair at the moment, as soon as it starts showing me short signals I'll listen, I think there is more potential on the downside.

Good Luck
  • #30
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:59am Dec 6, 2007 2:59am
Quoting gene22
Hi SL, yea I got in on the euro from the very top, 1.4950, been taken profit and readjusting,
Nice! You ole prophet you

I sorta went scalper on that...160 down, 60 up, 120 down..got stopped once, now +150 again but holding for the "main move" to occur.
Will be interesting to see where we end up.

UJ similiar story...enter, go to +100, get +0, enter, move to +60, get +0...life isn't easy for JPY bulls lately
Don't want to take 0-100 pips there if I know I can have 3-5 times as much..I think there's a corrective pattern unraveling, no cup and handle, and it's telling me it's getting fed up with trying vainly to go higher soon
Crosses are also prone to getting that crucial breakout very soon imho..EJ might finally wake up.

Don't know why you keep so high areas on UJ?
113+ seems lofty..I'm already wondering whether 112 will ever print again for now
But if it does get there then all the merrier to short it down again ;0
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #31
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:40am Dec 6, 2007 3:40am
Hi SL, those levels are simply something that I want to keep my eyes on, the recent techstructure indicates we might have a whipsaw action, also don't forget we are in december, the markets are getting thinner... I remeber I mentioned to you that I have several accounts, one for high leverage scalps, one long term and the main one. What I'm working on right now is trying to get myself to perform in the Zone, did you see that movie with Tom Cruise where he is a sports agent and his football player is telling him about the "Qua", well I'm trying to operate on that level all the time. I tend to be very critical of myself, so the positions that i take Have to be profitable, if I'm not hitting 8 out of ten then something is off. I'be had recent weeks where I would go 15-0, 12-0, 8-0, and then some where it would be 7-4, 6-2, 5-3. So my main goal is consistency with a top level of performance for now. Sometimes I feel the market, the way it breathes, moves, levels, prices, I just seem to flow, other times it's like a foreighn book can't see anything with clarity, and conviction combined with discipline and clarity are a very powerfull combination in this bussiness, so I keep training myself to operate at the peak form.
  • #32
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:52am Dec 6, 2007 3:52am
Quoting gene22
Hi SL, those levels are simply something that I want to keep my eyes on, the recent techstructure indicates we might have a whipsaw action, also don't forget we are in december, the markets are getting thinner...
KK.

Quote
I remeber I mentioned to you that I have several accounts, one for high leverage scalps, one long term and the main one. What I'm working on right now is trying to get myself to perform in the Zone, did you see that movie with Tom Cruise where he is a sports agent and his football player is telling him about the "Qua",

I only know Quasimodo
If it helps, I know Chi and Do
I assume it's once again "the zone".

Quote
well I'm trying to operate on that level all the time. I tend to be very critical of myself, so the positions that i take Have to be profitable, if I'm not hitting 8 out of ten then something is off. I'be had recent weeks where I would go 15-0, 12-0, 8-0, and then some where it would be 7-4, 6-2, 5-3. So my main goal is consistency with a top level of performance for now.
Sounds familiar.

Quote
Sometimes I feel the market, the way it breathes, moves, levels, prices, I just seem to flow, other times it's like a foreighn book can't see anything with clarity, and conviction combined with discipline and clarity are a very powerfull combination in this bussiness, so I keep training myself to operate at the peak form.

This again sounds familiar...know exactly how both extremes feel
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #33
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:15am Dec 6, 2007 4:15am
SL, I don't know if you did or not , but I would highly recomend checking out the thread by fti, this guy is an "old dog" the information he provides is priceless he used to be a chieff dealer at tier 1 bank for 26 years , what he is trying to pass on is worth it's weight in gold.
Btw, since you keep regretting not keeping the cad long, and I would guess a lot of people are there in the same boat will buy the breakout, interst rate cut, etc... me being a crazy sob, just sold the shit out of it. Let's see if this daily pin off of a daily support turned resistance can provide a bounce, I think it can, yeeeeeeeeeeees i do. But that was one crazy trade that I just took on a gut feeling yesterday, profit locked in, 1/3 ligudated now time to see if I can norture this baby to produce some nice results, attempting to reload for a snowball effect now, a bit risky but my profit will pay for my greed if I'm wrong on this one
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  • #34
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:25am Dec 6, 2007 4:25am
Quoting gene22
SL, I don't know if you did or not , but I would highly recomend checking out the thread by fti, this guy is an "old dog" the information he provides is priceless he used to be a chieff dealer at tier 1 bank for 26 years , what he is trying to pass on is worth it's weight in gold.
Dunno, what I read from him pretty much sounded like a lot of the usual conspiracy stuff on the one hand and a lot of "TA(or x y and z) doesn't work" - which instantly is a turn off if you use it daily and know that it works. Usual "if you can't make it work doesn't mean it doesn't work" thingamajigga.

Did read his chinese monk story and thought what them monks did rather...bad. Commented as such.

I'm more and more stopping to read main forum stuff...dito all the constant "proof this works, this doesn't" etc...some people believe this, some that...if you can make it work then you win, period.

Quote
Btw, since you keep regretting not keeping the cad long, and I would guess a lot of people are there in the same boat will buy the breakout, interst rate cut, etc...
Actually I had planned on closing (most / all) at 1.01xx depending on reaction - I just was super-annoyed to see myself cutting it as it stalled at 1.00 3-4 times around 150-200 pips early since that was NOT according to my plan.

Quote
me being a crazy sob, just sold the shit out of it.
You and half the crowd of PA traders it seems.

Others are still pending orders.

Quote
Let's see if this daily pin off of a daily support turned resistance can provide a bounce, I think it can, yeeeeeeeeeeees i do. But that was one crazy trade that I just took on a gut feeling yesterday, profit locked in, 1/3 ligudated now time to see if I can norture this baby to produce some nice results, attempting to reload for a snowball effect now, a bit risky but my profit will pay for my greed if I'm wrong on this one

Yea, would be nice to see it retrace. EURCAD and GBPCAD had parallel bearish setups, however that doesn't mean much yet..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #35
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:04am Dec 6, 2007 5:04am
Quoting SeekingLight
Dunno, what I read from him pretty much sounded like a lot of the usual conspiracy stuff on the one hand and a lot of "TA(or x y and z) doesn't work" - which instantly is a turn off if you use it daily and know that it works. Usual "if you can't make it work doesn't mean it doesn't work" thingamajigga.

Did read his chinese monk story and thought what them monks did rather...bad. Commented as such.
Ohh common, you seem like a guy who is not closed minded, agreed, a lot of bull on the FF, it actually keeps me entertained and focused, just weird I guess. But you know tsometimes when you dig in a pile of S$%T, not saying that FF is shit to the contrary, just a saying, you can find gold. Believe me, this guy is Gold, I have over 13 years experience, although started trading full time only about 1 year ago, read a lot of books, went to seminars, etc. This is not something that is main stream, but it is golden and very, very true. If you look more carefully he is advocating naked charts, I agree completely, and I think you do as well that the price is the only true indicator, everything else can serve as a confirmation, support but not the actual idea behind pulling the trigger. Yes, everyone is different, each person has it's own unique trading style, but let me put it to you this way, let's say there is a martial arts fighter who is skilled in a couple of styles of the art, and let's say there is another one who is skilled in 10 or more, who do you think will win? This forex arena is a battle field, don't kid yourself for one sec, I for one don't won't to just survive, I would like to go in fully prepared for battle and kill, no prizoners, kill everything in sight, be the best at this game or it's just a waist of time to me. Just my humble opinion, thought I'd share to have you reconsider as I like your style
  • #36
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:52am Dec 6, 2007 5:52am
Quoting gene22
If you look more carefully he is advocating naked charts, I agree completely, and I think you do as well that the price is the only true indicator, everything else can serve as a confirmation, support but not the actual idea behind pulling the trigger.
Well then I technically (har!) already read him one way or another

Quote
Yes, everyone is different, each person has it's own unique trading style, but let me put it to you this way, let's say there is a martial arts fighter who is skilled in a couple of styles of the art, and let's say there is another one who is skilled in 10 or more, who do you think will win?
The one with more endurance, skill and luck. Also another question is should you be extremely proficient in one thing or pretty good in many?
When is which better?

I also don't know about the rock paper scissors competitiveness in martial arts(if an x fighter would fight a y fighter who would win?).

Quote
This forex arena is a battle field, don't kid yourself for one sec
Actually I feel it's just a lot of (un-)educated guesses about what the market might be doing.
I never saw FX as me against another trader.
Besides that they don't know me, who really cares? So some make 5000% more than me, well done. Do they also have my risk profile? Etc.
I do what I do, they do what they do, we all go piggyback what the chart provides. It is the endless trough of pip feed ;d

Competition with others is pointless, competition with oneself is interesting for progress.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #37
  • Dec 6, 2007 6:32am Dec 6, 2007 6:32am
[quote=SeekingLight;1747202]Well then I technically (har!) already read him one way or another

The one with more endurance, skill and luck. Also another question is should you be extremely proficient in one thing or pretty good in many?
When is which better? [quote]

I think stiving to be the best in most of them would be my answer, I'm a perfectionist

[quote] I also don't know about the rock paper scissors competitiveness in martial arts(if an x fighter would fight a y fighter who would win?).[quote]

It's a funny game, inmo it shows you how your mind works

[quote]Actually I feel it's just a lot of (un-)educated guesses about what the market might be doing.
I never saw FX as me against another trader.
Besides that they don't know me, who really cares? So some make 5000% more than me, well done. Do they also have my risk profile? Etc.
I do what I do, they do what they do, we all go piggyback what the chart provides. It is the endless trough of pip feed ;[quote]

This is a Zero sum game, if you win somebody losses and vice versa, I'm extremely competitive by nature, so for me it's a challenge to be better that the average Joe.
Quote
Competition with others is pointless, competition with oneself is interesting for progress.
Competition is competition, with oneself is simply boring, so OK I'll do better this month than the prior, and the next better than the one before, so?! Who cares? I certainly don't. I care about clmbing to the top and being there for however short period it may be. That to me is an achievement, although I do see your point. I guess I played too many sports growing up and always was taught to win no matter the cost. Different ubringing, different views, no right or wrong simply different outlook on life.
  • #38
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:25am Dec 7, 2007 3:25am
Well, the "great" NFP Friday is upon us, here is what I think "might happen" Euro will reach 1.4700-10 before continuing the slide to 1.4440, than up to 1.4600, than down to 1.4350 target objective. Pound will might retrace as well, not too concerned as 2.0025 is a must inmo, so don't really care what it does bertween now and then, also will speculate that we would see much lowere levels on the pound, will have to look at the sequence once it get to 2.0025, if overshoots than 9850 is very possible, that would be it for the fall the correction up would start will see at that time. I see 2 possible scenarios, first is a very good number, since we had ADP report an increase, but I also see a revision down in the previous month, so I think today could be a whipsaw day. With all of this good numbers, mortgage "initiative" the white house is coming up with, which personally I think is a total crap, simply political and can only delay, not aviod the obvious, inevitable recession, the fed will hold this meeting. They really have to as the inflation will kill them, they can't cut now, that will intensify the problems in the long run, If they will cut it will be 25 not 50, in which case I'd like to see the target areas reached before the 11th, not much time left, let's see.
Btw, the geppy has a very interesting time line on the 10th or possibly 11ht, the target area, don't say I'm nuts -----109.65.
  • #39
  • Dec 7, 2007 8:54am Dec 7, 2007 8:54am
Allright, some musing because I'm bored and before I switch off and start the weekend right with some heavy drinking. The dow is at a very critical juncture at the moment the inverted H&S on the daily, with a broken neckline to the upside points to the immediate target of just above 14.000, if that prints I'll short the hell out of it. Another possibility is a current important resistance level 13640-50, if it closes this week above it, than 14000 is a given, if not we might of seen the end of the correction. The reason for me mentioning the Dow is that it has some correlation with the carry, less so then before but it is still there. I'm expecting a fall in the carry it is overdue, so the dow levels come into play from that perspective.
Hope everyone has a nice weekend. Next week maybe the last one for me in this year, if my targets are achieved I'll be done, if not I might stick around.
  • #40
  • Dec 8, 2007 12:43pm Dec 8, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting gene22
Well, the "great" NFP Friday is upon us, here is what I think "might happen" Euro will reach 1.4700-10 before continuing the slide to 1.4440, than up to 1.4600, than down to 1.4350 target objective. Pound will might retrace as well, not too concerned as 2.0025 is a must inmo, so don't really care what it does bertween now and then, also will speculate that we would see much lowere levels on the pound, will have to look at the sequence once it get to 2.0025, if overshoots than 9850 is very possible, that would be it for the fall the correction up would start will see at that time. I see 2 possible scenarios, first is a very good number, since we had ADP report an increase, but I also see a revision down in the previous month, so I think today could be a whipsaw day. With all of this good numbers, mortgage "initiative" the white house is coming up with, which personally I think is a total crap, simply political and can only delay, not aviod the obvious, inevitable recession, the fed will hold this meeting. They really have to as the inflation will kill them, they can't cut now, that will intensify the problems in the long run, If they will cut it will be 25 not 50, in which case I'd like to see the target areas reached before the 11th, not much time left, let's see.
Btw, the geppy has a very interesting time line on the 10th or possibly 11ht, the target area, don't say I'm nuts -----109.65.
Heh gene22, I'm a fan of your work and lurk ar'd allthe time as I'm still in the learning stage. Just one question did you mean 209.65 or is it truly 109.65?
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