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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,121
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:23pm Dec 5, 2007 1:23pm
Quoting kelab4x
Dear all,

Below was my long entry on GPBJPY 2 hours before London opening. Looked it was a good signal. The price went up about 90 pips and somehow, I managed to lock +10 pips profit.

As you know, the price dropped 200 pips after London market opened. I was not aware about the bad news at that time.

Was it a false signal? How could I avoid this type of situation in future? Appreciate any constructive feedback from all of you..

http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/7807/gjvj0.gif

Good trade and nothing wrong, not sure why you let +90 end up at +10 but I still do that once in a while, maybe 1 out of 50 trades. It happens at least you did not lose money. Getting out is still the hardest thing for me, I like to pull some out +50 and then do a stop at cost and watch it. On that setup I prob would of took some out at +50 then got stopped at cost on the rest.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,122
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:25pm Dec 5, 2007 1:25pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I missed some easy trade last week, and made the newbie mistake of getting in before the 4 hour showed a TC. I got in at like 110.33 and set my stop loss at 109.90. I think it came all the way down to 109.66, and then showed a TC. I didn't take it due to fear.

I am learning. So glad I am using real money, because I am learning about myself as well.

BTW, I agree on the GBP, I am waiting for a MACD confirmation on the 4 hour and see if I can't go long on it at the next bar in 2 hours and 45 minutes.
Ya wait for the bar to close, Some people flip to the 1hr and try to get in early, I just wait.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,123
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:27pm Dec 5, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Ryan, I got killed trying to TC the USDJPY by jumping in too early (I learned my lesson, and luckily in a very cheap way).

What made you decide to short the GBPUSD?

It was hovering below the 89 ma and it was more of a toss up trade, I did have the MACD say sell and there was a lot of resistance above it. The news part I had no idea but I rode it out and closed it for around +300.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,124
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:29pm Dec 5, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Good trade and nothing wrong, not sure why you let +90 end up at +10 but I still do that once in a while, maybe 1 out of 50 trades. It happens at least you did not lose money. Getting out is still the hardest thing for me, I like to pull some out +50 and then do a stop at cost and watch it. On that setup I prob would of took some out at +50 then got stopped at cost on the rest.
Well... My TP was the previous high 228.50 and my original SL was the low of previous H4 candle.

Usually I only look at the chart again 4 hours later. If that happened, I would in lose, instead of gainning profit.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #9,125
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:34pm Dec 5, 2007 1:34pm
I've actually been trading down since red arrow here on the chart, although I saw the turn up on the MACD I wasn't willing to trade up until it broke the trendline I've drawn here on the MACD. The charts were still making lower lows and lower highs and the shorter term moving averages were still pointed down, even with the pullback that made the MACD turn. I saw no real signs of a trend reversal and so am still locked in.

Hope this helps you.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/937/gj120507lw3.gif
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #9,126
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:36pm Dec 5, 2007 1:36pm
Hehe, looks like a few others beat me to it while I went to take the picture.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #9,127
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:36pm Dec 5, 2007 1:36pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Ya wait for the bar to close, Some people flip to the 1hr and try to get in early, I just wait.
You are probably one of the most experienced traders on this forum. And I remember you saying you normally just stick to the 4 hour.

Where I messed up on the USDJPY is I got in early, based on the 1 hour and I got up 10 pips, but I stayed greed. Had I taken my 10 pips, I could have rode out the storm and then got back in when the 4 hour confirmed.

So I need to scalp when I scalp and I need to hold when I follow the 4 hour for the longer runs.

I learned my lesson, I am getting my confidence back after a day, and I am ready to hop back in the saddle.
  • #9,128
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:51pm Dec 5, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I wait, in times like this people start taking higher risk trades and start to lose money. Why trade a crap setup because nothing is going on? I don't I walk away and just wait. In this chop & slop is where a lot of people that trend trade lose money. So people do go to shorter time's but then again the risk get higher. All it takes is a few good trades a month to make a good living, if you got and hold the GBP short you would be well over +300 so take your money and wait for the good setups.

Ryan,

Thanks for the great advice. That is the key. Wait for the set ups. Dont make up trades because your set ups are not happening at the time.
  • #9,129
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:47pm Dec 5, 2007 2:47pm
Hi Kelab,

Nothing at all wrong w/your trade & I'm very impressed that you managed it to get 10 pips while trying to let it run. G/J is very difficult to manage, especially when we are trying to maximize profit. Can't tell you how many times I've moved stop to BE +1 pip only to be taken out and then have it run in my direction like 1000 pips. I've been a bit "wary" of the upmoves w/this pair b/c they almost always seem to fail (overall sentiment is pretty bearish -- so I've been trying to sell the rallies -- but I did think that it had found rhythm. The only reason I didn't get stuck w/a long was because I was already short and sleeping w/some profit protected. I also use smaller timeframe charts to confirm the directional bias.

Again, may I say Great Job on this trade! I am really in awe of how you managed it and kept it a winner. Heroin...oops, I mean G/J really can turn on us and take a good profit away -- whip one way -- then whip another. Wish it would just start to trend again.

Happy trading!
Pips

Quoting kelab4x
Dear all,

Below was my long entry on GPBJPY 2 hours before London opening. Looked it was a good signal. The price went up about 90 pips and somehow, I managed to lock +10 pips profit.

As you know, the price dropped 200 pips after London market opened. I was not aware about the bad news at that time.

Was it a false signal? How could I avoid this type of situation in future? Appreciate any constructive feedback from all of you..

http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/7807/gjvj0.gif
  • #9,130
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:48pm Dec 5, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting JimTatum
Ryan,

Thanks for the great advice. That is the key. Wait for the set ups. Dont make up trades because your set ups are not happening at the time.

Remember when I said trading is the most boaring job in the world? lol it's so true. When it's slow I goto the Gym, cook, walk outside and enjoy life. I also play video games or read. My worst trading days are when I was at the screen all day long pushing something. Once you know what to look for you just scan the charts and walk away.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,131
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:58pm Dec 5, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Another question as well. We seem to be in a lot of chop (though with the possible news out of the Great Britain bank, we may move into more trends soon).

What do all of you experienced traders do in chop?

Do you scalp the market for 5 pips here, 10 pips there?

Do you have another method you follow? If so, would you share?

Do you just sit on the sidelines?

Thank you!
Hmmmm...do you really think today is chop for E/U and G/U and U/C?

Today was great trading where many former supports gave way w/MACD confirmation. My only complaint is no real retraces to catch if you missed line breaks.

If the market was truly chopping and I couldn't determine a range, I'd stay out. If it was ranging, I'd trade it (like how I took the G/U trade yesterday). Whatever you do, you don't trade rhythm in a ranging or choppy market, so the key is to profile your environment and plan your trades accordingly. Some of us scalp too -- but scalping a choppy market is suicide. If the market is choppy (don't confuse w/volatile), you really should stay out and do something else.

So, unlv_tj, may I ask if you have started backtesting historical data and what your results have been? That is really a super important excercise and will give you a lot of confidence in reading the market live.

Hope all is going well with you,
Pips
  • #9,132
  • Dec 5, 2007 3:02pm Dec 5, 2007 3:02pm
Ryan,

I am saving your posts back for advice. You have just shared some golden advice, that I can now see by trading with live money (that I did not grasp while paper trading). You once commented that you felt your advice was ignored, but not at all. Thank you so much.

How many Forex pairs do you follow?

Do you trade other vehicles and if so what else do you trade?
  • #9,133
  • Dec 5, 2007 3:04pm Dec 5, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Ya wait for the bar to close, Some people flip to the 1hr and try to get in early, I just wait.
Hiya Ryanmcd and unlv_tj,

Are you guys really going to push a long today if a signal comes? Aren't you at all concerned about the BOE meeting? Also, Daily Support is still 100 pips below the current price.

Y'all are brave souls.

Happiness and Pips to you guys,
Pips
  • #9,134
  • Dec 5, 2007 3:14pm Dec 5, 2007 3:14pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hiya Ryanmcd and unlv_tj,

Are you guys really going to push a long today if a signal comes? Aren't you at all concerned about the BOE meeting? Also, Daily Support is still 100 pips below the current price.

Y'all are brave souls.

Happiness and Pips to you guys,
Pips

Ah, I thought the meeting was going to be today, so we would already see the results.

I was wrong. In that case, I will stay clear of the GBPUSD until tomorrow.
  • #9,135
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:06pm Dec 5, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hiya Ryanmcd and unlv_tj,

Are you guys really going to push a long today if a signal comes? Aren't you at all concerned about the BOE meeting? Also, Daily Support is still 100 pips below the current price.

Y'all are brave souls.

Happiness and Pips to you guys,
Pips

Hey I am good at working with bad trades, I have had a lot of experiance in the past LOL Also something to check out, when the 89MA goes flat CT your butt off
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,136
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:10pm Dec 5, 2007 4:10pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hmmmm...do you really think today is chop for E/U and G/U and U/C?

Today was great trading where many former supports gave way w/MACD confirmation. My only complaint is no real retraces to catch if you missed line breaks.

If the market was truly chopping and I couldn't determine a range, I'd stay out. If it was ranging, I'd trade it (like how I took the G/U trade yesterday). Whatever you do, you don't trade rhythm in a ranging or choppy market, so the key is to profile your environment and plan your trades accordingly. Some of us scalp too -- but scalping a choppy market is suicide. If the market is choppy (don't confuse w/volatile), you really should stay out and do something else.

So, unlv_tj, may I ask if you have started backtesting historical data and what your results have been? That is really a super important excercise and will give you a lot of confidence in reading the market live.

Hope all is going well with you,
Pips
I am just working with the TC stuff, I trade pretty heavy and don't want to have to trade everyday if I don't have too. The one trade was a little over 300 so I am set already for this month in 4 days, I think it took me 5 days last month to get 300 lol. Anyway after that the way I look at it is sit tight trade TC's and enjoy doing other things. I leave the screens for days at a time. As you know once you build up a account you dont have to trade a lot to make a lot of pips if you have the $$$$$$$ to trade the BEST setups heavy.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,137
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:00pm Dec 5, 2007 5:00pm
Anyone looking at the GBPJPY, or is everyone staying out due to the news tomorrow?
  • #9,138
  • Dec 5, 2007 6:35pm Dec 5, 2007 6:35pm
Hello,
I want to share this spreadsheet which I'm using to properly size the lot amount per order, given the SL in pips, the account balance and the "risk factor".
I know this is not strictly connected with Phillip's method, but I think and found that this thread is not only about a single technique but much more a complete forex/trading course, involving the rhythm, the MACD, candlesticks patterns, market psychology ecc. ecc.
So I decided to "give back" to this admirable thread and wonderful people and share a tool to easily get a correct money management, one of the most important thing to make trading a business.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Money_Management_Eng.xls   67 KB | 2,690 downloads
  • #9,139
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:00pm Dec 5, 2007 8:00pm
1 hour until the next 4 hour bar GMT.

Possible trades setting up...

GBPUSD (8 pips in the positive for a Round Bottom)

USDCAD (4 more pips needed for a TC)

EURJPY (8 pips positve for a Zero Bounce)

Anyone looking to take these if the bars hold true?
  • #9,140
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:32pm Dec 5, 2007 8:32pm
Quoting owkenobi
Hello,
I want to share this spreadsheet which I'm using to properly size the lot amount per order, given the SL in pips, the account balance and the "risk factor".
I know this is not strictly connected with Phillip's method, but I think and found that this thread is not only about a single technique but much more a complete forex/trading course, involving the rhythm, the MACD, candlesticks patterns, market psychology ecc. ecc.
So I decided to "give back" to this admirable thread and wonderful people and share a tool to easily get a correct money management, one of the most important thing to make trading a business.
Great sheet..nice and simple
Thanks
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