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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #141
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:43am Dec 5, 2007 5:43am
No... 2.0200

Quoting DutchTrader
The one at 2.0327? We already did
  • #142
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:45am Dec 5, 2007 5:45am
Quoting Tiki Trader
No... 2.0200
ahhh
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #143
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:47am Dec 5, 2007 5:47am
Quoting Tiki Trader
I still call that a big slanted head and shoulders.... which day are we going to hit that bottom trend line...???
A formation like that in the higher timeframes needs some strong trigger, imo.

And we are about to have it: BOE and FED's rate statements.

Euro is showing the same H&S formation.

GJ is showing a HUGE H&S formation in the weekly, but ain't found the trigger yet... (FED no-change the charm?)

Gotta go now, biz lunch.

P.S. Dow futures jumped to +123 after the job report. Cable back to 0400s (via carry trades), not crazy
  • #144
  • Dec 5, 2007 6:44am Dec 5, 2007 6:44am
So many reversal patterns showing in alot of pairs (higher TF)
I think if this quarter is a bad one we could see a huge sell off in january, Smart money has been secretly pulling out for some time now, Meanwhile everyone is hoping the x-mas shopping will boost the economy trying every excuse they can to hold on to this bull run, a bad december consumer number is all it will take for the fear and panic to take hold. I dont think it will happen until then as most COs are heading off for their winter ski vacation,
of course their was a huge sell off when they were all on vacation in August so it could happen in Dec.
Point of this is I should leave out FA and stick to what I know best which is TA. FA just screws my head up.
Just Trade It
  • #145
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:15am Dec 5, 2007 9:15am
"The Fed could be forced to lower interest rates below 3% to avoid a recession, Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said. Gross will be interviewed on CNBC at 2 pm today." (EST)

CNBC

I beg your pardon? 3%? GU $5, EU $4, USDCAD 0.0001?

I think I´m long GU
  • #146
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:22am Dec 5, 2007 9:22am
Nice article

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22102335
  • #147
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:36am Dec 5, 2007 9:36am
Not A rate stetament, but TWO rate statements.

And that's what we will have to trade...

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who are forecast to lower their main interest rate next week, are signaling that they are looking for additional ways to increase credit to companies and consumers.

The Fed may lower the discount rate -- what it charges banks for short-term direct loans -- by a quarter-point more than the benchmark rate after Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen publicly expressed frustration that previous rate cuts haven't encouraged banks to lend to one another.

Such a move would narrow the gap between the two rates -- normally 1 percentage point -- to a quarter-point. Economists said that may spur lending by easing the stigma of borrowing at the discount rate, letting firms claim they are taking advantage of a better deal.

  • #148
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:45am Dec 5, 2007 9:45am
Any clue what caused drop in eur/cad this beggining of ny session?
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #149
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:53am Dec 5, 2007 9:53am
Quoting koltri
Any clue what caused drop in eur/cad this beggining of ny session?
Maybe -8M of crude oil inventories? Just guessing...

I´m in a cyber coffee, so not seeing any chart now.

BTW, dow +200 already.
  • #150
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:03am Dec 5, 2007 10:03am
what a day !
GU
breaklow and breaklow again................
Boe force to cut rate ?

L GU L
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #151
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:10am Dec 5, 2007 10:10am
cesarnc thanx,BUT oil inventories were released much later
the charts were showing an oncoming selling(sholastic+ema)
was looking for fundanental explanation
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #152
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:16am Dec 5, 2007 10:16am
Quoting cesarnc
Maybe -8M of crude oil inventories? Just guessing...

I´m in a cyber coffee, so not seeing any chart now.

BTW, dow +200 already.
cesarnc , waht corelation between dow and Gu ? is there any ? significant ?
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #153
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:20am Dec 5, 2007 10:20am
Now what would be sweet for tomorrow is for the BOE to HOLD.......

Which just means that SPECULATION of a rate cut is a beautiful thing...especially since I rode that down train today...

Until tomorrow...I'm on the sidelines....
  • #154
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:48am Dec 5, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Turtle
Now what would be sweet for tomorrow is for the BOE to HOLD.......

Which just means that SPECULATION of a rate cut is a beautiful thing...especially since I rode that down train today...

Until tomorrow...I'm on the sidelines....
That is is precisely. It is never the news. It is what people believe that moves the markets. Whether or not what they believe has to with News/FA, TA and or T&A. :
  • #155
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:53am Dec 5, 2007 10:53am
Quoting SunTrader
That is is precisely. It is never the news. It is what people believe that moves the markets. Whether or not what they believe has to with News/FA, TA and or T&A. :

I have found T&A analysis to be extremly painful expecially if your wife catches you analizing another womens T&A
Just Trade It
  • #156
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:08am Dec 5, 2007 11:08am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I have found T&A analysis to be extremly painful expecially if your wife catches you analizing another womens T&A
Then she gives you some S&M, ?
  • #157
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:11am Dec 5, 2007 11:11am
Quoting SunTrader
Then she gives you some S&M, ?
Yeah after making me wait a few days (weeks) and telling her 1,000 times over how her T&A is so much better than other womens T&A
Just Trade It
  • #158
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:03pm Dec 5, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting notme32
cesarnc , waht corelation between dow and Gu ? is there any ? significant ?
The strong correlation is with GBPJPY, but when Dow Jones is going up strong, GU usually follows suit (via GU and UJ longs simultaneously).

This hasnt happened today, though. The big cable selloff in the morning surely scared any potential buyer. Also with the uncertainties for tomorrow..

This is a week for tentative trading, in which everybody is much more worried about what is hidden behind the bushes rather than reacting to what they can actually see...

I mean, ADP good means strong FNP behind the bushes?
Bad UK housing / consumer data mean rate cut?
Recent US economical data mean Fed cutting?
  • #159
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:12pm Dec 5, 2007 12:12pm
On cable, in my opinion, today's move was either exacerbated or somebody knows something I don't...

If BOE doesn't cut, it was exacerbated and I'll long that bastard

It BOE cuts, somebody knew something I didn't and I won't know what to do with that bastard. Much likely to go on stabbing the GJ like I'm doing recently only.
  • #160
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:13pm Dec 5, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting cesarnc
On cable, in my opinion, today's move was either exacerbated or somebody knows something I don't...

If BOE doesn't cut, it was exacerbated and I'll long that bastard

It BOE cuts, somebody knew something I didn't and I won't know what to do with that bastard. Much likely to go on stabbing the GJ like I'm doing recently only.
I was at a biz luncheon, sure feels good to see an hefty P/L upon my return home.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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