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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,101
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:41am Dec 5, 2007 8:41am
Hi all! I have no idea re: E/U other than the eurozone has been making a lot of noise lately trying to get china to stop buying euro's and trying to discourage further appreciation. W/that said, I found this little tidbit of news from Thompson pretty interesting....doesn't influence how we should look at the charts, but maybe reinforces that important players take advantage of momentum too.....

13:37 EUR/USD: Talk Of Good Sized Reserve Player Selling 1.47 Break London, December 5. After the sharp sell-off we are beginning talk of the main players involved in the move. Talk circulating the New York market suggests one of the big reserve players was responsible for pushing price clean under 1.4700 following the U.S data surprise. There are also rumours that Asian central banks joined the move to the indicated 1.4665 lows

hmmmm....maybe we are seeing unified effort to help support the dollar? interesting.......
  • #9,102
  • Dec 5, 2007 8:47am Dec 5, 2007 8:47am
Quoting hockeyforex
I took a short trade on 9pm est candle on GBPUSD. I sold at 2.0552 with a target of 2.0505 and a s/l of 2.0611. My target was hit for a $74 profit and price continued to fall for 200+ pips.
Nicely done! Yes, this move has been pretty violent -- everybody trying to protect profit before BOE? Worried of surprise like CAD? Gosh....notice how price hit the 89 on the daily today? Neato!!

Wish I hadn't gone to sleep early last night -- or had kept my short open -- oh well!! As I always say to others....every move isn't mine....and I can't get every pip!!

Happy trading everyone!!!!!!!

Best,
Pips

PS...I really like your screen name....are you going for a power play, hehe? Just stay out of the penalty box, eh? & no slamming against the wall (that's my favorite when we go to the games).
  • #9,103
  • Edited 10:18am Dec 5, 2007 8:59am | Edited 10:18am
Dear philip and All

Is it correct break zero on euro ? Thanks for your advise

Ammar
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  • #9,104
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:24am Dec 5, 2007 9:24am
Usdjpy

Set alarm as possible RB might bounce off the 89sma. As discussed on the thread in Mp3
04:00
RB off the 89sma with 2 x Engulfing candles
Entry 110.06
Stoploss 109.62 below 89sma
1st TP 110.45
2nd TP 111.09 or 111.71 depending on the market rhythm and motion
Edit 1
08:00 Close 50% at 110.39 and set rest to BE and trailing stop of 30pips
Edit 2
Remainder closed at 110.36 by trailing stop
Total gain 33/2 + 30/2 =63/2 =31.5

I can not watch trades live so my trailing stop closed my trade. There was a nice pullback to the 21 after my trade was closed and then a very strong move up
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  • #9,105
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:29am Dec 5, 2007 9:29am
Best place to enter as the motion was confirmed on MACD with relative small candles. Bottom support line was a concern just before breakout
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  • #9,106
  • Dec 5, 2007 9:33am Dec 5, 2007 9:33am
Spinner plus hanging man plus engulfing down candle with MACD confirming and moving below 89. Perfect. 1st target was 21ema and 2nd the support line above 200sma.
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  • #9,107
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:04am Dec 5, 2007 10:04am
hey, pips4uandme

I still can't send you PM's
  • #9,108
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:05am Dec 5, 2007 10:05am
Quoting pips4uandme
Nicely done! Yes, this move has been pretty violent -- everybody trying to protect profit before BOE? Worried of surprise like CAD? Gosh....notice how price hit the 89 on the daily today? Neato!!

Wish I hadn't gone to sleep early last night -- or had kept my short open -- oh well!! As I always say to others....every move isn't mine....and I can't get every pip!!

Happy trading everyone!!!!!!!

Best,
Pips

PS...I really like your screen name....are you going for a power play, hehe? Just stay out of the penalty box, eh? & no slamming against the wall (that's my favorite when we go to the games).
Ya, the penalty box are losing trades and gaining pips are goals. I am trying to beat Gretzky's record. My favorite part of the game is the puck hitting the post, that sound is amazing
  • #9,109
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:13am Dec 5, 2007 10:13am
Does anybody think a rate cut tomorrow could cause a test of the lower trend line dating back to mid 2006?
Or has todays drop factored in a cut?
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  • #9,110
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:00pm Dec 5, 2007 12:00pm
Took a GBPUSD short yesterday but that's about it. Been dead this week for TC trades but the GBP is doing well
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,111
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:09pm Dec 5, 2007 12:09pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Took a GBPUSD short yesterday but that's about it. Been dead this week for TC trades but the GBP is doing well
Ryan, I got killed trying to TC the USDJPY by jumping in too early (I learned my lesson, and luckily in a very cheap way).

What made you decide to short the GBPUSD?
  • #9,112
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:27pm Dec 5, 2007 12:27pm
Another question as well. We seem to be in a lot of chop (though with the possible news out of the Great Britain bank, we may move into more trends soon).

What do all of you experienced traders do in chop?

Do you scalp the market for 5 pips here, 10 pips there?

Do you have another method you follow? If so, would you share?

Do you just sit on the sidelines?

Thank you!
  • #9,113
  • Dec 5, 2007 12:52pm Dec 5, 2007 12:52pm
I would like to introduce myself I have been reading this thread for a while and I am almost done reading all of the posts. Thank you Philip for sharing this with us I greatly appreciate it. I also want to think the other long time posters on this site and the input you have shared with us.
I just started demo trading the last 2 weeks I don't know if this is the best time to enter due to the trades being difficult the last few weeks but here I am. I have been trading for about 2 years off and on and always felt really close to understanding what was going on but I was missing the last piece of the puzzle.

I went long off of USD/JPY

Reasons:
1) MACD had a round bottom
2) Price had good support off of the 89 similar to what happened on Nov. 29th
3) Stop loss just below 89 @ 109.59
4) TP 1 at the 21 at 110.06 and move #2 to break even
5) TP 2 at previous high of Friday and Monday 110.47
6) Buy at 109.86

Emotions:
I hope I doing this right since I am just starting this. I am about break even after about 2 weeks or so. Also the market hasn't been good the last few weeks so this trade can go either way or stay sideways. Philip's MP3 gave me some encouragement since he was thinking the same way about this trade. I just need to remember to try to determine the direction the market is going off of trendlines, resistance and MA's and confirm it with the MACD not the other way around.

Conclusion:
The Trade worked out as planed
  • #9,114
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:00pm Dec 5, 2007 1:00pm
Hi everybody,

Hi unlv tj. What do you mean when says IN CHOP ?

BEST REGARDS
  • #9,115
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:01pm Dec 5, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Another question as well. We seem to be in a lot of chop (though with the possible news out of the Great Britain bank, we may move into more trends soon).

What do all of you experienced traders do in chop?

Do you scalp the market for 5 pips here, 10 pips there?

Do you have another method you follow? If so, would you share?

Do you just sit on the sidelines?

Thank you!

I wait, in times like this people start taking higher risk trades and start to lose money. Why trade a crap setup because nothing is going on? I don't I walk away and just wait. In this chop & slop is where a lot of people that trend trade lose money. So people do go to shorter time's but then again the risk get higher. All it takes is a few good trades a month to make a good living, if you got and hold the GBP short you would be well over +300 so take your money and wait for the good setups.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,116
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:02pm Dec 5, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Ryan, I got killed trying to TC the USDJPY by jumping in too early (I learned my lesson, and luckily in a very cheap way).

What made you decide to short the GBPUSD?

I do not see a bad setup here, when and what price did you get in at?
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,117
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:05pm Dec 5, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting vette1974
I would like to introduce myself I have been reading this thread for a while and I am almost done reading all of the posts. Thank you Philip for sharing this with us I greatly appreciate it. I also want to think the other long time posters on this site and the input you have shared with us.
I just started demo trading the last 2 weeks I don't know if this is the best time to enter due to the trades being difficult the last few weeks but here I am. I have been trading for about 2 years off and on and always felt really close to understanding what was going on but I was missing the last piece of the puzzle.

I went long off of USD/JPY

Reasons:
1) MACD had a round bottom
2) Price had good support off of the 89 similar to what happened on Nov. 29th
3) Stop loss just below 89 @ 109.59
4) TP 1 at the 21 at 110.06 and move #2 to break even
5) TP 2 at previous high of Friday and Monday 110.47
6) Buy at 109.86

Emotions:
I hope I doing this right since I am just starting this. I am about break even after about 2 weeks or so. Also the market hasn't been good the last few weeks so this trade can go either way or stay sideways. Philip's MP3 gave me some encouragement since he was thinking the same way about this trade. I just need to remember to try to determine the direction the market is going off of trendlines, resistance and MA's and confirm it with the MACD not the other way around.

Conclusion:
The Trade worked out as planed
Nice job! Also you will have losers, I have had 1000's of them just part of the job and it will happen again. When the 89MA gets flat TC's work better because of the lack of direction. Also it has been slow the past 2 weeks for me if you are doing TC trades but others are taking trades and doing well.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,118
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:07pm Dec 5, 2007 1:07pm
This is way over sold, will take a CT here once the setup happens.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,119
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:18pm Dec 5, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I do not see a bad setup here, when and what price did you get in at?
I missed some easy trade last week, and made the newbie mistake of getting in before the 4 hour showed a TC. I got in at like 110.33 and set my stop loss at 109.90. I think it came all the way down to 109.66, and then showed a TC. I didn't take it due to fear.

I am learning. So glad I am using real money, because I am learning about myself as well.

BTW, I agree on the GBP, I am waiting for a MACD confirmation on the 4 hour and see if I can't go long on it at the next bar in 2 hours and 45 minutes.
  • #9,120
  • Dec 5, 2007 1:18pm Dec 5, 2007 1:18pm
Dear all,

Below was my long entry on GPBJPY 2 hours before London opening. Looked it was a good signal. The price went up about 90 pips and somehow, I managed to lock +10 pips profit.

As you know, the price dropped 200 pips after London market opened. I was not aware about the bad news at that time.

Was it a false signal? How could I avoid this type of situation in future? Appreciate any constructive feedback from all of you..

http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/7807/gjvj0.gif
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