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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,981
  • Nov 30, 2007 1:39pm Nov 30, 2007 1:39pm
I am wondering if using adaptive indicators will decrease the fake out rates.

Here is a short summary for those of you not familiar with adaptive indicators.

Talking specifically about adaptive MACD:

How smooth or jagged the MACD looks depends on what your look back periods are ... ie 9 bars before, 13 bars before etc. When the market is fast moving and you have a larger lookback period MACD will hardly change. If your MACD's look back is too short, it will be way too jagged. Most adaptive indicators, as the name suggests, adapt to the market based on VOLUME. If volume has been high, the indicator picks a shorter look back period, if the volume is low, the lookback period is decreased. The end result is less fakeouts.

Let me know what you think. Has anyone tried this?
  • #8,982
  • Nov 30, 2007 1:41pm Nov 30, 2007 1:41pm
Good call Pipsi.

I missed some easy trades this week, and ended up scalping for about 15 pips. No more missing the 5 AM 4 hour bar. No more over looking easy trades. I don't mind losing, if I follow the rules, and just happen to lose. But I get upset at myself when I over look trades.

I am excited about next week. The EURUSD could set up for some nice TC shorts. The USDCHF could set up for some nice TC longs. GBPUSD might get sorted out and set up for some TC shorts. The USDJPY could set up for some nice TC longs. The USDCAD could set up for some very easy TC longs. The AUDUSD might also set up for some nice TC shorts.

Hopefully the USD is strong next week, making for easy TC trades and easy pipage.

Have a good weekend all.
  • #8,983
  • Nov 30, 2007 2:20pm Nov 30, 2007 2:20pm
Dear philip

Many thanks for your advice (be patient) and I think this the main point in this strategy .. br patient and the trade will come to you soon but donnt try to implemet the trade against the strategy..it was amazing day (infact I donnt like to trade on friday but today I do it ) ,,,many thanks

Ammar
  • #8,984
  • Nov 30, 2007 3:22pm Nov 30, 2007 3:22pm
Time to post my result for this month...
The previous month I got 200 pips (Demo account)
This month, November, 700+ pips (Demo account) and 400+ pips (Real) with total 1100+ pips

Just some more proof that this system works (combined with good MM)

Have a great weekend all =)
  • #8,985
  • Nov 30, 2007 4:18pm Nov 30, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting benniardi
Time to post my result for this month...
The previous month I got 200 pips (Demo account)
This month, November, 700+ pips (Demo account) and 400+ pips (Real) with total 1100+ pips

Just some more proof that this system works (combined with good MM)

Have a great weekend all =)

Yep it works well but remember each month is different but the same.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #8,986
  • Nov 30, 2007 4:43pm Nov 30, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting benniardi
Time to post my result for this month...
The previous month I got 200 pips (Demo account)
This month, November, 700+ pips (Demo account) and 400+ pips (Real) with total 1100+ pips

Just some more proof that this system works (combined with good MM)

Have a great weekend all =)
Nice Job!!!! Keep up the great trading!!!
  • #8,987
  • Dec 1, 2007 7:36am Dec 1, 2007 7:36am
Dear philip and all

Would you pls correct me .. the reason we didnt enter this trade at the MACD signal is because all the candles are closed below the 365 so ther wasn't an enough room for profit regarding the stop loss (Ratio is bad) and we enter after the long tail signal .. its correct ? be advice

Ammar
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  • #8,988
  • Dec 1, 2007 2:22pm Dec 1, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting benniardi
Time to post my result for this month...
The previous month I got 200 pips (Demo account)
This month, November, 700+ pips (Demo account) and 400+ pips (Real) with total 1100+ pips

Just some more proof that this system works (combined with good MM)

Have a great weekend all =)
hi, i m new here, i cant read all post in short time, can tell me what is the performance by month since this strategy is used...

or pls post a link to the pages

thanks

and november is great (is it for gbp / usd & eur / usd or other pairs)
  • #8,989
  • Dec 2, 2007 8:19am Dec 2, 2007 8:19am
Quoting jeta
I am wondering if using adaptive indicators will decrease the fake out rates.

Here is a short summary for those of you not familiar with adaptive indicators.

Talking specifically about adaptive MACD:

How smooth or jagged the MACD looks depends on what your look back periods are ... ie 9 bars before, 13 bars before etc. When the market is fast moving and you have a larger lookback period MACD will hardly change. If your MACD's look back is too short, it will be way too jagged. Most adaptive indicators, as the name suggests, adapt to the market based on VOLUME. If volume has been high, the indicator picks a shorter look back period, if the volume is low, the lookback period is decreased. The end result is less fakeouts.

Let me know what you think. Has anyone tried this?
jeta: Phillip has stated not to focus too much on the MACD and the histogram itself. It's critical to keep an eye on the actual price action, where the movavgs are and s/r areas. Volume is important but you would also have to determine when the volume is the heaviest such as during the London Open, NY morning session and Asian session. So, you would then have to adapt your indicator to certain times of the day. This can be done: If time of day = x through x the plot indicator with these values. But again, once you get more comfortable with the method you'll find out that the MACD becomes a secondary indicator. It's still very important but it's not the sole indicator to trade by. Also, once you learn how to read the rhythm of things you also learn how to filter out some of those 'false' signals altogether. Having a MACD tied directly to market volume is an interesting concept though and if you come up with something by all means pursue it...
  • #8,990
  • Dec 2, 2007 8:21am Dec 2, 2007 8:21am
Quoting aboammar
Dear philip and all

Would you pls correct me .. the reason we didnt enter this trade at the MACD signal is because all the candles are closed below the 365 so ther wasn't an enough room for profit regarding the stop loss (Ratio is bad) and we enter after the long tail signal .. its correct ? be advice

Ammar

aboammar: Charts aren't showing for some reason right now...
  • #8,991
  • Dec 2, 2007 8:35am Dec 2, 2007 8:35am
hi
i'm looking for a buy signal on daily trend next week
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  • #8,992
  • Dec 2, 2007 10:41am Dec 2, 2007 10:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Unles there is a very good signal still coming I am finish for the month. Has been a up and down month for most pairs. But still up more then 300pips for the month and more than 300/month overall.

Thanks for all the posts and support. May next month be even better.
Phillip
hi
i like this kind of information very much and my chart is gmt+2 and its help me recognize better.many thanx phillip for ur posts and supports.
and a Q about gbp/usd the last trade(no 14): the previous candl's low was 2.0675 but u put ur sl at 2.0685 .whould u please explain?
  • #8,993
  • Dec 2, 2007 11:55am Dec 2, 2007 11:55am
Quoting Ryanmcd
As far as taking about making 10% a month or whatever, it depends on how much money you really need. If I am trading a 3 million $ account I don't need 10% a month but I like to get a little more if I see good trades setup. Again you will have slow month where you may make 2-300 then some months will be 6-700+. I say don't set a goal just take the trades that look good to you because setting a goal could run you into problems say in the last week of the month you start pressing trades to make that goal. If you look back I had the +300 goal in about 4 days, but I did not stop trading because there were great setups. The only trades I took this week was Monday for +160ish because the rest of the week was crap or I was out. Try this take 1 trade, close 1/2 put a stop @ cost and walk away for 6-8 hours and see what happens. Also some of my best trades are when I put the trade on and goto sleep Hope this helps.

The walk away technique is definitely a must. My two best trades last month were held over night, and being asleep really does eliminate the need to check up on the trades progress.
  • #8,994
  • Dec 2, 2007 12:37pm Dec 2, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi
i like this kind of information very much and my chart is gmt+2 and its help me recognize better.many thanx phillip for ur posts and supports.
and a Q about gbp/usd the last trade(no 14): the previous candl's low was 2.0675 but u put ur sl at 2.0685 .whould u please explain?
Hi
The whole trade was done live on the thread. see Post 8846 Page 590.
Phillip
  • #8,995
  • Edited 1:52pm Dec 2, 2007 1:41pm | Edited 1:52pm
Hi
I have decided to try and find the places in the thread where I have published some of my live trades. In October a lot of trades was done on Skype so I havent published them on the thread. As you can see on the attached picture there were some in Nov which I did live at work and did not publish them as well. There are however a few that was published. Hope you find this usefull. If I missed some and you spot it on the thread, please let me know that I can update the spreadsheet. I will in future put it on so that people can follow where the trades were published. Have a great pipping week.
Phillip
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  • #8,996
  • Dec 2, 2007 2:12pm Dec 2, 2007 2:12pm
With a starting capital of $2000 and risking only 3% of your capital you can have 22 consecutive losses and still have 50% of your account left.

Makes you think why people lose everything in a couple of trades.
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  • #8,997
  • Dec 2, 2007 4:31pm Dec 2, 2007 4:31pm
Hi,

I have been following this thread from September. I was quiet as I didn't want to raise my voice in discussion before I finish reading it from cover to cover. Now I am up-to-date and I'd like to say that I am incredibly happy that this thread is the first I have ever read about forex.

I have got 2 years experience with stock market and I played mainly relying on fundamental basis. I got some moderate success with it however there were factors that made me dislike stocks. The biggest fault is that having set the Stop Loss I cannot be sure to close my trade with the price I wanted. Usually my SL was hit in such a way that market opens with gap next morning and offered prices were much lower than my SL. The next thing that made me sick is that no matter how good stock you have picked up it will follow the general downtrend.

I think Forex doesn’t have these failures (especially when not keeping trades through weekend) so why not to try? ;-)

I opened a demo account at broker with big spreads. I think it is a good idea because if I am able to make money with bigger spreads it will be easier to make it with smaller ones. Moreover it can be some sort of slippage simulation (some says that opening a trade lasts longer in real conditions).

In the beginning I rushed the trades, I played against the trend and I closed my position prematurely. No matter how inexperienced I was – reading this thread (and trying to follow teachings of Mr. Phil, Palmer, Ryanmcd, pips4uandme, Ted1983, Pipsi cola and other contributors) I managed to make profit. I finished my first month with 17% on plus. Also special thanks to ira, OldDog, ashes and Bil2205 for typing master’s works of art.

The second month was a period of experiments – I was trying to combine different strategies from other threads and jumped from one currency to another. I still had more winners than losers but at this stage I began to lose confidence in my trades. The best ones were made when I was sleeping or in job and I couldn’t stare at the screen. This was the moment when I decided to concentrate on this method only and limit amount of currencies to observe. The results started to be better.

I am now in the middle of the third month demoing Forex. I had no losers till now and my trades look much better than sooner. I don’t close them prematurely when playing with strong trend and don’t hesitate to close whole position at my first Profit Target when playing against the trend. I definitely feel much better playing TC signals and I think it is enough for me to be profitable in Forex. Actually my demo account is 30% bigger than at beginning ;-)

Ok, I’d like to give something from myself and I think that sharing my learning curve in the form of my trades diary will be quite good help for newcomers to see how not to play Phillip Nel’s 4 Hour Strategy. The comments in this file were written a few days after taking the trade so please don’t take seriously statements written there.


-----
Michael
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip My 4H MACD Transactions part 1.zip   690 KB | 1,216 downloads
File Type: zip My 4H MACD Transactions part 2.zip   807 KB | 1,097 downloads
File Type: zip My 4H MACD Transactions part 3.zip   929 KB | 1,429 downloads
  • #8,998
  • Dec 2, 2007 5:03pm Dec 2, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting Michael81
Hi,

I have been following this thread from September. I was quiet as I didn't want to raise my voice in discussion before I finish reading it from cover to cover. Now I am up-to-date and I'd like to say that I am incredibly happy that this thread is the first I have ever read about forex.

I have got 2 years experience with stock market and I played mainly relying on fundamental basis. I got some moderate success with it however there were factors that made me dislike stocks. The biggest fault is that having set the Stop Loss I cannot be sure to close my trade with the price I wanted. Usually my SL was hit in such a way that market opens with gap next morning and offered prices were much lower than my SL. The next thing that made me sick is that no matter how good stock you have picked up it will follow the general downtrend.

I think Forex doesn’t have these failures (especially when not keeping trades through weekend) so why not to try? ;-)

I opened a demo account at broker with big spreads. I think it is a good idea because if I am able to make money with bigger spreads it will be easier to make it with smaller ones. Moreover it can be some sort of slippage simulation (some says that opening a trade lasts longer in real conditions).

In the beginning I rushed the trades, I played against the trend and I closed my position prematurely. No matter how inexperienced I was – reading this thread (and trying to follow teachings of Mr. Phil, Palmer, Ryanmcd, pips4uandme, Ted1983, Pipsi cola and other contributors) I managed to make profit. I finished my first month with 17% on plus. Also special thanks to ira, OldDog, ashes and Bil2205 for typing master’s works of art.

The second month was a period of experiments – I was trying to combine different strategies from other threads and jumped from one currency to another. I still had more winners than losers but at this stage I began to lose confidence in my trades. The best ones were made when I was sleeping or in job and I couldn’t stare at the screen. This was the moment when I decided to concentrate on this method only and limit amount of currencies to observe. The results started to be better.

I am now in the middle of the third month demoing Forex. I had no losers till now and my trades look much better than sooner. I don’t close them prematurely when playing with strong trend and don’t hesitate to close whole position at my first Profit Target when playing against the trend. I definitely feel much better playing TC signals and I think it is enough for me to be profitable in Forex. Actually my demo account is 30% bigger than at beginning ;-)

Ok, I’d like to give something from myself and I think that sharing my learning curve in the form of my trades diary will be quite good help for newcomers to see how not to play Phillip Nel’s 4 Hour Strategy. The comments in this file were written a few days after taking the trade so please don’t take seriously statements written there.


-----
Michael
Hi Michael,

Thank you so much for your first post w/your detailed trade journal (I haven't had time to look through all three yet, just first one). What a great job you did on keeping records!! This will help you in the future to see what works best for you. I see in the beg. you traded very high % of your account (10% or more) -- which is a Yikes!

Great job on learning the market -- and your stock experience should help you with the learning curve of Forex.

I look forward to reading your other 2 journals and future posts! Keep up the good work!!

Happy trading!
Pips
  • #8,999
  • Dec 2, 2007 5:06pm Dec 2, 2007 5:06pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Hi
I have decided to try and find the places in the thread where I have published some of my live trades. In October a lot of trades was done on Skype so I havent published them on the thread. As you can see on the attached picture there were some in Nov which I did live at work and did not publish them as well. There are however a few that was published. Hope you find this usefull. If I missed some and you spot it on the thread, please let me know that I can update the spreadsheet. I will in future put it on so that people can follow where the trades were published. Have a great pipping week.
Phillip

Hi Phillip!!

You are such a hard worker for all of us here on the thread!! You do so much to make everything easy for us students! As Karma, I hope all your trades come w/easy pips .

May the star of happiness always shine on you and yours!

Pips
  • #9,000
  • Dec 2, 2007 5:25pm Dec 2, 2007 5:25pm
Michael81:

You described the overall 'foundation' of what is most likely the beginning success story of every successful trader: Learning from your mistakes. Not rushing trades, trade hunting, and the like. As always, we hope you stick around and join in the 'fun of making pips' with Phillip's teachings. If you haven't visited the website, there's some extra 'stuff' on the Tools link that might be helpful as well....

Let's have a good week everyone...On to battle!

For pips:
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