When you put it that way, it makes sense.
Is the 48% average trading the 4H MACD?
Thanks for your informative posts and setting me straight.
Good Luck in Pipping!!
- #8,964
- Nov 30, 2007 2:02am Nov 30, 2007 2:02am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: follow momentum. | 1,202 Posts
- #8,965
- Nov 30, 2007 2:18am Nov 30, 2007 2:18am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: follow momentum. | 1,202 Posts
Hi All,
I just wanted to comment on some postings in the last 2 days
I too have had a very successful month trading live. Ryan is right IMO that taking fewer trades is better for your (and definitely my) mental health. Palmer and Donna comment on that as well, and it really has to do with your own trading style and what you are comfortable with. The 4hr MACD fits into my business and family life, although I still struggle from trying to sit constantly in front of a screen.
It sounds like many of us have been down the same road, including me. Huge losses, I mean HUGE. Why? as Donna says - no plan. Then you start on a path to enlightenment, to search for a method, the truth.....and thank goodness for FF and Phillip's thread. If you follow it you WILL do well - you must sort out your own money management, and remember at all times the R:R when trading.
The hedge funds often are too big to move as quickly as we can, and as previously said have compliance limitations. I am not sure of my facts but here in South Africa we have about 800 shares listed on the JSE and yet there are over 1000 funds to choose from - all with the same 800 shares. I think it could be similar in your own countries.
The % returns are achievable, just be careful of greed and try to manage your fears. I have had SL hit on trades, but when I go back over my trade journal, my biggest losses have been entering trades that really weren't on....trying to see a trade.......no patience.....believing that a TC or RB will have formed by the next candle so I have tried to 'get in early'. How many times has that developing pattern not developed. Ask me... it costs money.
In wrapping up, to the newbies....including me.....people like Phillip, Palmer, Donna, Ryan, Tamara, Nadia; not only should you read their comments, but READ their comments.
Finally, yesterday on the Eur/Usd, I took the short down to the 89 and did phenomenally well. Then you get cocky, and go long as it bounces off it and goes up. More pips in the bank - lots more. Now you think you're invincible.
Then you listen to Phillip's mp3 last night. Thanks Phillip for that! Because you sometimes forget to look at the whole picture and you start to see (all over again) what you want to see. That mp3 about the testing of the 89 was another wakeup call, because I just didn't see it, as Phillip says just beware.
That's it. I'm done for the month........as Phillip says, don't want to let 1 bad trade spoil two good trades. PEOPLE....LISTEN TO THE MARKET!!! (and the other great contributors I have mentioned)
You CAN do it.
People like Phillip and posts like that really define FF as a forum leader. I have been on a few trading forums, none of them come close to standard of quality found here on FF.
Many Thanks.........
Joseph
- #8,967
- Nov 30, 2007 6:18am Nov 30, 2007 6:18am
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
- #8,971
- Nov 30, 2007 9:35am Nov 30, 2007 9:35am
Hello all,
I was just wondering if anybody here is looking at feeds from two different time zones simultaneously? There is often some confusion as a lot of MT4 feeds seem to be GMT+2. Do you you think that this would reduce the number of missed opportunities, or just become an unnecessary hindrance
?
I was just wondering if anybody here is looking at feeds from two different time zones simultaneously? There is often some confusion as a lot of MT4 feeds seem to be GMT+2. Do you you think that this would reduce the number of missed opportunities
, or just become an unnecessary hindrance?
- #8,972
- Nov 30, 2007 10:52am Nov 30, 2007 10:52am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
I understand that. I believe it is impossible to make these kinds of returns with no leverage at all.
But I think that it is certainly possible to bank 200 pips consistently (it's the consistency that is the problem).
That said, I guess we need to find the maximum level of leverage which we can remain comfortable with. For me this would probably lie in the 1:10 range.
I feel that with a consistent method this level of leverage is still safe.
As far as taking about making 10% a month or whatever, it depends on how much money you really need. If I am trading a 3 million $ account I don't need 10% a month but I like to get a little more if I see good trades setup. Again you will have slow month where you may make 2-300 then some months will be 6-700+. I say don't set a goal just take the trades that look good to you because setting a goal could run you into problems say in the last week of the month you start pressing trades to make that goal. If you look back I had the +300 goal in about 4 days, but I did not stop trading because there were great setups. The only trades I took this week was Monday for +160ish because the rest of the week was crap or I was out. Try this take 1 trade, close 1/2 put a stop @ cost and walk away for 6-8 hours and see what happens. Also some of my best trades are when I put the trade on and goto sleep
Hope this helps.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
As far as taking about making 10% a month or whatever, it depends on how much money you really need. If I am trading a 3 million $ account I don't need 10% a month but I like to get a little more if I see good trades setup. Again you will have slow month where you may make 2-300 then some months will be 6-700+. I say don't set a goal just take the trades that look good to you because setting a goal could run you into problems say in the last week of the month you start pressing trades to make that goal. If you look back I had the +300 goal in about 4 days, but I did not stop trading because there were great setups. The only trades I took this week was Monday for +160ish because the rest of the week was crap or I was out. Try this take 1 trade, close 1/2 put a stop @ cost and walk away for 6-8 hours and see what happens. Also some of my best trades are when I put the trade on and goto sleep
Everyone have a great weekend.
I am posting today a GBPUSD buy setup that take place during the morning.
On the first chart (H4) you can see the entry signal of today morning with a blue elipse and rectangle.
On the second chart I am following the price action. After a strong up move you can see a strong resistence near MA89 (red line), and as Phillip told on several posts before, a lot os tails ...
Blue rectangle show the tails in better detail. We can see at least 3 tails before bar number 1. That's when the price falls during almost one hour... At that point I was thinking that I was seeing a reversal bar from previous up move. Was H4 buy setup in danger ??
When bar number 1 closed another up move occurred, please see bar number 2... and now? We can say that price found support near MA21 and that we can expect that original up move will continue ... but ... another down bar is happening ....
So, the situation is not very clear at the moment.
Do you want to make your contribution about this GBPUSD situation?
Regards,
Pip
I saw this too this morning. I really wanted to short the pair, but didn't because of the 4 hour and 1 hour MACD signals. I stayed out for a couple of reasons:
1. If you draw a support line from the recent uptrend, you will notice that price was hugging right below it -- on my chart there was a candle that hit the line and had a long tail. To me this was a bearish signal (I didn't enter b/c this candle hadn't closed yet before I went to bed and some UK news was to hit -- thought about an entry order, but the messy MA's on both tf kept me out.) The 89 was also slanted down, which gave me a bear bias -- but didn't have confirmation.
1A. I was still somewhat considering shorting, even before the close of my midnight - 4AM candle because of a candle 12 hours earlier that failed around the Resistance (and I thought hmmm... place a limit at the previous IT L (which would have worked nicely, but again -- I didn't feel confident w/what the market really wanted to do, and figured UK news was determing factor -- and really didn't want to wait up for it -- I was already Long G/J too, which helped influence my decision to stay away from G/U).
2. That brings me to the look of the MA's -- they are all over each other on the 4 hour without any clear indication of where they want to sort out. The 200 is mixed in w/the 89, 21 and 8. Ths is a market that says hmmmm? When I switched the the hourly, price was consolidating below the 200/365 and the MA's were all flat and running pretty much parallel to each other. No clear indication -- and the MACD was running in opposite direction (showing consolidation). It is now pretty evident that the consolidation was a down continuation pattern, but at the time I wasn't confident w/that idea -- thought I might be forcing myself to see something that really wasn't there.
3. A TC was given for the down move this morning on the 1 hour (I saw it while it was occurring around 6:00ish PST). The only thing that was "iffy" about it was that the close of the candle was still in the "consolidation" pattern...(and I was hoping the signal was untrue, b/c I'm still long G/J
).So, I totally agree w/you on the mixed signals and think you did the right thing by not entering this trade. Even if you were anticipating resistance line failure on the 4 hour chart, the call was hard b/c the candle that failed was somewhat bullish and the MACD was showing a round bottom (but still not attractive enough to take a long b/c of all the bearish signals in my book
).Nice job at identifying a situation where you did well by sitting on the sidelines. These types of scenarios can be hard on us mentally b/c you may want to kick yourself and say, "I should have...." which really isn't true.
Have a good weekend!
Pips
Hello all,
I was just wondering if anybody here is looking at feeds from two different time zones simultaneously? There is often some confusion as a lot of MT4 feeds seem to be GMT+2. Do you you think that this would reduce the number of missed opportunities
Stick with 1 feed. Your signals may be different than other people's, but it all comes out in the wash. Focus on what your chart is telling you and don't mix and mash candle times (it will most likely cause conflicting info and may confuse you and cause you to overtrade or lose confidence in your plan).
Happy trading!
Pips
- #8,978
- Nov 30, 2007 12:15pm Nov 30, 2007 12:15pm
As far as taking about making 10% a month or whatever, it depends on how much money you really need. If I am trading a 3 million $ account I don't need 10% a month but I like to get a little more if I see good trades setup. Again you will have slow month where you may make 2-300 then some months will be 6-700+. I say don't set a goal just take the trades that look good to you because setting a goal could run you into problems say in the last week of the month you start pressing trades to make that goal. If you look back I had the +300 goal in about 4 days, but I did not stop trading because there were great setups. The only trades I took this week was Monday for +160ish because the rest of the week was crap or I was out. Try this take 1 trade, close 1/2 put a stop @ cost and walk away for 6-8 hours and see what happens. Also some of my best trades are when I put the trade on and goto sleep
Hey Ray,
Thanks for the advice. On your trade do you mean close 1/2 position with profit. Then move stop to break even for the 2nd 1/2 of the position????
That is what I have been doing. But 2nd half seems to get stoped out at break even alto.
When looking back @ eur/usd, the picture doesn't seem so messed up after all.
In the first part price found support on the 89SMA for the 3rd time this week and made an attempt to resume the uptrend. Judging by the state of 8 and 21 EMAs and the fact that price has been in a downtrend since it reached 4967 last week this was a counter trend move – high risk trade – so it was OK to pass if you saw it coming.
In the second part the up-move was stopped around 21EMA and price made an aggressive turnaround and continued down. Now this was a high probability trade but remember that market is not perfect and never has been. It does what it wants to do and when and how fast or slow etc. So if you were waiting for this to happen and missed it just like me, then keep on studying!
Wasn’t that a beautiful rhythm?
Have a good weekend!
In the first part price found support on the 89SMA for the 3rd time this week and made an attempt to resume the uptrend. Judging by the state of 8 and 21 EMAs and the fact that price has been in a downtrend since it reached 4967 last week this was a counter trend move – high risk trade – so it was OK to pass if you saw it coming.
In the second part the up-move was stopped around 21EMA and price made an aggressive turnaround and continued down. Now this was a high probability trade but remember that market is not perfect and never has been. It does what it wants to do and when and how fast or slow etc. So if you were waiting for this to happen and missed it just like me, then keep on studying!
Wasn’t that a beautiful rhythm?
Have a good weekend!
- #8,980
- Nov 30, 2007 1:39pm Nov 30, 2007 1:39pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money