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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,921
  • Nov 29, 2007 1:38pm Nov 29, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Saka!

Question for you: Why did you place your stop at a round number? I also didn't see a move away from the MA's on the 1 hour, but rather a consolidation under the 200. Just wondering what the thought process was justifying the long on Cable. (the trade was initiated today, right? Not yesterday?). Thanks for the info!!

Happy trading!

Pips
I don't know how do post image, sorry.
From 15th NOV, you can find that cable form in a channl which is upward. I just think the price is touch the resistant line of this channle. And the three candles form three tails point down to the resistant line before the RB signal candle.
I had thought to enter EUR/USD, what a pity, a big mistake
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #8,922
  • Nov 29, 2007 1:51pm Nov 29, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting jeta
Thanks for your reply Ted.

Hedged or not hedged, bottom line is all that matters. They are hedging because they are discovering that their profits are more stable and repetitive than if they didn't hedge. From your reply it sounds like you think that good traders make more than 40% y/y ? That is unbelievable. May I inquire how much you make and over what span of time?
Only b/c people are talking about hedge funds....did you guys see the special report on Bloomberg this morning? They were listing the returns (and salaries) of the top hedge funds (freaking blew my mind!). We always talk about the 40% (which we as individuals can do much much better if we learn a strategy/method and stick with them). Back on topic:

Top fund has made almost 500% in the last 9 months (Paulson) and he (Paulson) has been paid (ahem, get this)...over 1 Billion dollars!

The next fund has made over 300% -- the least return on the list was about 179% -- the smallest salary was $719 Million! Can anyone say: Holy Wow!!???
  • #8,923
  • Nov 29, 2007 2:09pm Nov 29, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting saka
I don't know how do post image, sorry.
From 15th NOV, you can find that cable form in a channl which is upward. I just think the price is touch the resistant line of this channle. And the three candles form three tails point down to the resistant line before the RB signal candle.
I had thought to enter EUR/USD, what a pity, a big mistake
Thank you, Saka. I see what you were thinking. Very aggressive -- but you kept your stop very tight, which was a great move on anticipating a bounce, yet minimizing your exposure if the line didn't hold. Cable can be frustrating sometimes. Don't kick yourself for not taking the E/U trade -- we will have more opportunities to make pips in the comming days.

Thanks again for the info!

Best,
Pips

PS...notice on the 1 hour chart how price closed below the 200 and how close together the other MA's are (were?) -- this can be a clue that price may not move back upwards for a while and we may want to wait for price to move through the 200 w/clear MACD confirmation. The aggressive trade scenario never really had confirmation b/c 4 hour and 1 hour not in harmony and large bounce at TL not seen. Just some things to consider and think about when deciding if you want to enter market when trend is weakening.

PPS....relating to a post you made a very very long time ago.....I want to trade in the China Time Zone....Then we don't have to worry about sleep LOL!! I was jealous when you said it was the best trading time zone!!!!! Happy trading to you, my friend.
  • #8,924
  • Nov 29, 2007 2:14pm Nov 29, 2007 2:14pm
Thank you Phillip for all the wonderful information you share with us!! Great Job this month!!!!! Glad your connection issues are somewhat resolved

Hope you enjoy some time away from the market for the next few days -- see you in December!

Happiness to you and your family!

Pips
  • #8,925
  • Nov 29, 2007 2:39pm Nov 29, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Unles there is a very good signal still coming I am finish for the month. Has been a up and down month for most pairs. But still up more then 300pips for the month and more than 300/month overall.

Thanks for all the posts and support. May next month be even better.
Phillip
Hi Phillip

Well done with the great results for the two months. Still a few months of training for me to go - just being realistic. But I see it can be done. Hard work lying ahead.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #8,926
  • Nov 29, 2007 3:24pm Nov 29, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting pips4uandme
PS...notice on the 1 hour chart how price closed below the 200 and how close together the other MA's are (were?) -- this can be a clue that price may not move back upwards for a while and we may want to wait for price to move through the 200 w/clear MACD confirmation. The aggressive trade scenario never really had confirmation b/c 4 hour and 1 hour not in harmony and large bounce at TL not seen. Just some things to consider and think about when deciding if you want to enter market when trend is weakening.

PPS....relating to a post you made a very very long time ago.....I want to trade in the China Time Zone....Then we don't have to worry about sleep LOL!! I was jealous when you said it was the best trading time zone!!!!! Happy trading to you, my friend.
Thanks, I have found what is wrong, MAs is very important to show you whether you should put your trigger

BTW, your are right, China is a good place to trade forex
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #8,927
  • Nov 29, 2007 3:31pm Nov 29, 2007 3:31pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting saka
Thanks, I have found what is wrong, MAs is very important to show you whether you should put your trigger

BTW, your are right, China is a good place to trade forex
Let's all migrate to china with our occupation stated Professional Forex Traders that trades almost all the best timings!! haha!!!

I forgot to say my country singapore is good to trade forex too.. hee..
  • #8,928
  • Nov 29, 2007 3:52pm Nov 29, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting shauny
Let's all migrate to china with our occupation stated Professional Forex Traders that trades almost all the best timings!! haha!!!

I forgot to say my country singapore is good to trade forex too.. hee..
hehe, but even though you are at China, you still can't trade at the time that dow opens, it's deep night here. I can write here because I have night work this week.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #8,929
  • Nov 29, 2007 4:17pm Nov 29, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Only b/c people are talking about hedge funds....did you guys see the special report on Bloomberg this morning? They were listing the returns (and salaries) of the top hedge funds (freaking blew my mind!). We always talk about the 40% (which we as individuals can do much much better if we learn a strategy/method and stick with them). Back on topic:

Top fund has made almost 500% in the last 9 months (Paulson) and he (Paulson) has been paid (ahem, get this)...over 1 Billion dollars!

The next fund has made over 300% -- the least return on the list was about 179% -- the smallest salary was $719 Million! Can anyone say: Holy Wow!!???
You think that on AVERAGE we can make better than 40% y/y by just executing 1 or two 2 strategies?

May I ask how long you have been trading live and what your results are so far?

I have been in the market for about a year and a half now. The first 4-5 months I lost money. Then I learned to scalp and made up half the losses before FXCM stopped my ability to scalp (that was before they had a no trade desk option). After that I have been making small profits so I am at about break even from my lowest point since taking up trading semi-professionally.
  • #8,930
  • Nov 29, 2007 4:25pm Nov 29, 2007 4:25pm
Any one know of a good on-line tutorial or e-book on Candlesticks?? Would like to learn a little more to get a better feel of emotion.

PS Quiet in the markets. Bernanke to speak at 7PM EST. Talking heads on CNBC would like to hear him "seal the deal" (back up a 1/4 point rate cut) at the next FMOC meeting...
  • #8,931
  • Nov 29, 2007 4:26pm Nov 29, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting jeta
You think that on AVERAGE we can make better than 40% y/y by just executing 1 or two 2 strategies?

May I ask how long you have been trading live and what your results are so far?

I have been in the market for about a year and a half now. The first 4-5 months I lost money. Then I learned to scalp and made up half the losses before FXCM stopped my ability to scalp (that was before they had a no trade desk option). After that I have been making small profits so I am at about break even from my lowest point since taking up trading semi-professionally.
Yes, you may ask. I average around 48% per month on my account w/1 strategy. Another account (scalping averages anywhere from 5-200%/month). I have been trading different financial markets for almost 13 years. You are on the right path, and it sounds pretty typical. Also going to assume you were trading undisciplined w/out doing much testing at first and thought newstrading was the way to make money (we all think that in the beg. and lose more than we gain). I really don't know why you would be trying to execute more than 1 or 2 strategies in the market -- that would lead to inconsistent trading and thus inconsistent returns. Focus is what makes me money. Just my opinion -- but less is more (and I do trade completely discretionary -- no automation).

Wishing you all the best. Keep up the good work on studying the market! Looks like you have turned a very important corner.

Pips
  • #8,932
  • Nov 29, 2007 4:49pm Nov 29, 2007 4:49pm
Not to get off subject here, but I have tried to scalp, and to me it almost feels like gambling. More hoping than with this 4 hour strategy.

But I have the free time, and I am very motiviated to learn to make more money, so I would love to learn to scalp correctly.

Do most of you that scalp us a method similar to Phillips 5 Min method on this forum? (If the 50 MA is at least at a 20 degree angle, then trade with the 50 MA when the price retraces between the 10 and 21 EMA range).

Thanks!
  • #8,933
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:09pm Nov 29, 2007 5:09pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Not to get off subject here, but I have tried to scalp, and to me it almost feels like gambling. More hoping than with this 4 hour strategy.

But I have the free time, and I am very motiviated to learn to make more money, so I would love to learn to scalp correctly.

Do most of you that scalp us a method similar to Phillips 5 Min method on this forum? (If the 50 MA is at least at a 20 degree angle, then trade with the 50 MA when the price retraces between the 10 and 21 EMA range).

Thanks!
Hi unlv_tj!

Slow down! Learn to trade the longer time frames first and master the basic TA methods.

Scalping can be very difficult, and can cause a lot of loss to an account if one doesn't have a disciplined method and discipline to close trades quickly. Scalping also has the potential to cause a trader to overtrade resulting in turning profit into loss. I have a couple of methods of taking smaller time frame trades -- a variant of Phillip's 5 min system when in harmony with 1 hour and 4 hour MACD direction using support and resistance levels another method utilizes break from support/resistance w/1-2-3 pattern.

Even though I like to scalp, I think it is a bad strategy. It demands a lot of screen time and focus and will suck you dry physically and mentally -- of course I only think this b/c I scalp G/J mostly and have an addiction problem. Please use your time to practice the market through backtesting and learn how to trade 1 method before adding additional tools to your repitoire. You will become sucessful quicker this way -- otherwise, you run the risk of confusing yourself and mixing strategies -- leading to inconsistent trading and inconsistent results.
  • #8,934
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:14pm Nov 29, 2007 5:14pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
To be honest, I'm happy with just 1 strategy. I used to think maybe if I have a short term strategy, it might be good for me when there are no trades on the 4hr. I was wrong as I realized when one has a good feel of the system, having good trades is not a problem and we are talking about good trades consistently with good pips in the pocket end of the month. I tried a few short term strategies on the 5mins but it all end up I lose concentration and focus because I was busy looking for trades and sometimes miss the trades on on the 4hr system. I reckon I do far better trading 1 strategy then 2 strategy. Last but not least, do you realized this system enabled us to trading ranging,countertrend, trending markets in all situations? It is just our individual ability to comprehend and fully utilized to its maximum. Its a all rounder system. I really appreciate what philip has taught and shared with us and he is continuing to do that. If not for him, I wouldn't have found the real meaning of trading.

For that, I salute him. He has given me the headstart for a entire package instead of me picking up the pieces myself. Although, I have not been able to trade consistently due to sometimes lack of discipline and sharpness, but I managed to maintain my account with little gain or little losses, to making drastic moves in my account. I still have alot to learn but I know as I go along, I will get better and better. It is just a matter of time for me to reach there... Those who are new, hang on and sit tight and also enjoy the ride together!!!
  • #8,935
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:23pm Nov 29, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi unlv_tj!

Slow down! Learn to trade the longer time frames first and master the basic TA methods.

Scalping can be very difficult, and can cause a lot of loss to an account if one doesn't have a disciplined method and discipline to close trades quickly. Scalping also has the potential to cause a trader to overtrade resulting in turning profit into loss. I have a couple of methods of taking smaller time frame trades -- a variant of Phillip's 5 min system when in harmony with 1 hour and 4 hour MACD direction using support and resistance levels another method utilizes break from support/resistance w/1-2-3 pattern.

Even though I like to scalp, I think it is a bad strategy. It demands a lot of screen time and focus and will suck you dry physically and mentally -- of course I only think this b/c I scalp G/J mostly and have an addiction problem. Please use your time to practice the market through backtesting and learn how to trade 1 method before adding additional tools to your repitoire. You will become sucessful quicker this way -- otherwise, you run the risk of confusing yourself and mixing strategies -- leading to inconsistent trading and inconsistent results.
I did scalp trading for several years and made a great living, but I hated my job trading. It sucked to me taking 5-10 trades a day and working 10+ hours and it seems everytime you step away you missed a good trade. I say use the scalps to make some cash once you have more cash trade longer and longer times and play bigger positions. There are several people who trade 10-20 times a year and make millions. More money = longer times. Also with the longer times you get your life back and your mental health.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #8,936
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:39pm Nov 29, 2007 5:39pm
Great info and insight Pips and Ryan!
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #8,937
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:54pm Nov 29, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting EricthePip
Any one know of a good on-line tutorial or e-book on Candlesticks?? Would like to learn a little more to get a better feel of emotion.

PS Quiet in the markets. Bernanke to speak at 7PM EST. Talking heads on CNBC would like to hear him "seal the deal" (back up a 1/4 point rate cut) at the next FMOC meeting...

Eric:

There should be plenty of info on the web for candlestick formations and hot to trade them. I believe Steve Nisson (Nissin) has some excellent books on Candlestick formations...
  • #8,938
  • Nov 29, 2007 5:57pm Nov 29, 2007 5:57pm
Quoting Palmer
Eric:

There should be plenty of info on the web for candlestick formations and hot to trade them. I believe Steve Nisson (Nissin) has some excellent books on Candlestick formations...
Agreed. Steve Nisson's books are the best on candlesticks. He is the master. They are not cheap though. Maybe you can find them on Ebay or someplace.

good luck,
Rob
  • #8,939
  • Nov 29, 2007 6:03pm Nov 29, 2007 6:03pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Not to get off subject here, but I have tried to scalp, and to me it almost feels like gambling. More hoping than with this 4 hour strategy.

But I have the free time, and I am very motiviated to learn to make more money, so I would love to learn to scalp correctly.

Do most of you that scalp us a method similar to Phillips 5 Min method on this forum? (If the 50 MA is at least at a 20 degree angle, then trade with the 50 MA when the price retraces between the 10 and 21 EMA range).

Thanks!

unlv:

Scalping is a different monster. Your rules have to be basically set in stone when to get in and get out and your profit targets have to be clearly defined. I've done it, I do it but it's not the most enjoyable thing to do as Ryan has stated. Even on a 5min chart you may have to wait a few hours for the correct set-up. I use a few 'things' for scalping but do not do it very often. I would strongly recommend trying this with a demo account first.
  • #8,940
  • Nov 29, 2007 6:11pm Nov 29, 2007 6:11pm
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