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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,861
  • Nov 28, 2007 5:19pm Nov 28, 2007 5:19pm
For those of you that have been trading LIVE for a while, how many % of your accounts do you risk per trade? How many % do you risk maximum at once (i.e. if you have 2-3-etc trades opened simultaneously)? What is your average draw down? What is your maximum draw down? Do you have any rules for yourself when you are having a bad month (i.e. stop trading for the rest of the month, stop trading system all together, etc..)

What has been your m/m and y/y return since you began trading LIVE? Could you list at least y/y % returns?

The best hedge funds that manage over 250 million in capitol don't overshoot 40% average of a 3 year period. The best performing hedge funds tend to go both short and long on equities (stocks). Here is the particular data I am refering to: http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...d50_071001.pdf
It seems stocks are easier to trade than forex.

Please don't hesitate to post losses. Noone will think any less of you.

I am just trying to get an idea of what to shoot for.

My instinct tells me that if one is able to do 25% y/y consistently regardless of market conditions, that someone has a really good trading toolbox as well as a solid money management system.
  • #8,862
  • Nov 28, 2007 5:25pm Nov 28, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting ragz
Hi everyone and thanks phillip for your time, does anyone see the possible opportunity to go short with yen a nice RT is finishing and the signal can be done in any time, suggestions????
I believe the only reason you have for going short is the MACD signal.

I believe you should look for a move off of support or resistance (MA's, support/resistence lines, etc.) and the MACD just gives the signal when to pull the trigger.

Now the 89 MA is close to where the USDJPY is right now. But since the trade already broke fall through the 89, it does not seem to have much resistence power. And I see no other strong resistence lines to make me think it will go short.

It is close to a possible 23.6 Fib line on the 4 hour chart, but not enough for me to pull the trigger.

Anyone with more experience have any thoughts?
  • #8,863
  • Nov 28, 2007 6:51pm Nov 28, 2007 6:51pm
I think it still has potential to go down, looking at the price action, and 2-3 doji/dragonfly, watever you called it, and it seems to find resistance on fibo 61.8%

Just my 2 pips =)

*please let me know if you guys can't see the picture clearly*
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.JPG Size: 54 KB
  • #8,864
  • Nov 28, 2007 7:22pm Nov 28, 2007 7:22pm
oops...
  • #8,865
  • Nov 28, 2007 7:43pm Nov 28, 2007 7:43pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I have not shown you people how my screen looks like. This is all I have on my screen. If you look at to many pairs you miss oppertunities. Look how the 1H supported the 4H confirming the move on the GbpUsd

The UsdJpy has also given a TC and morning star to at least the 89sma
Thanks for posting your views showing the 1hr/4hr. Quick question on the 1hr usage. I downloaded the mq4 file to "lock" the moving averages to from one time to another. Do you use the 1hr moving averages for confirmation (or S/R) or just the MACD pattern to confirm entry/set stop/get feel for the "short term" emotion. Your view looks to have 1hr time period SMA's and EMA's just wondering if they are part of your logic?

Thanks
Eric
  • #8,866
  • Nov 28, 2007 9:17pm Nov 28, 2007 9:17pm
Not sure if anyone is awake or not, but I got a few hours until bed.

Possible trades, not enough confidence to take them, I wonder what anyone thinks...

USDCAD possible long off of .9850. Possilbe past resistence turning to support. Also possible support off of the 365. The signal is not given from the MACD at this time.


EURUSD possible long off the 21 EMA at 1.4830. MACD is giving signal. Not certain with both the US and Europe markets closed right now.


USDJPY possible long based on support off of the 89 MA.

So much to learn and no confidence to pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
  • #8,867
  • Nov 28, 2007 10:53pm Nov 28, 2007 10:53pm
none of them look like any great setups. The only ones look like they might be good sometime soon are nzd/usd, gdp/usd, and the usd/aud for a bounce off the 21 on the 4 hr charts.
  • #8,868
  • Nov 28, 2007 10:59pm Nov 28, 2007 10:59pm
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
Quoting unlv_tj
Not sure if anyone is awake or not, but I got a few hours until bed.

Possible trades, not enough confidence to take them, I wonder what anyone thinks...

USDCAD possible long off of .9850. Possilbe past resistence turning to support. Also possible support off of the 365. The signal is not given from the MACD at this time.


EURUSD possible long off the 21 EMA at 1.4830. MACD is giving signal. Not certain with both the US and Europe markets closed right now.


USDJPY possible long based on support off of the 89 MA.

So much to learn and no confidence to pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
I only trade the eu, gu and learning ju.. Right now the UJ is resting on 89sma, and a move away from it is a high possibility. However, you mentioned longing the EU, I think is a tough call. Why? There is a sloping trendline all the from the top. If eu would to give a tc or a move away on the 1hr, it might be too closed to the trendline and this worries me. Unless there are still room for movement till the trendline, I would not entered. I have been using trendlines and it works miraculously for me. Somehow, price always managed to find its way there.. My two cents worth..
  • #8,869
  • Nov 28, 2007 10:59pm Nov 28, 2007 10:59pm
Quoting trader_scott
none of them look like any great setups. The only ones look like they might be good sometime soon are nzd/usd, gdp/usd, and the usd/aud for a bounce off the 21 on the 4 hr charts.

I never follow the AUDUSD, so I did not see it is setting up nicely.

If the GPDUSD can come down to the 21 EMA while I am asleep (heading to bed right now) and then show a bounce in the 4 hour bar after the next 4 hour bar (I will wake up in 6 hours for this bar) there is finally a trade I can take.
  • #8,870
  • Nov 28, 2007 11:02pm Nov 28, 2007 11:02pm
On my usd/jpy 4 hour chart there is a hammer right above the 89, and the next candle is a doji, and the one after that is a disputable spinning top. It might find the support it needs off the 89, but on my chart there are some warning signs.
  • #8,871
  • Nov 29, 2007 12:28am Nov 29, 2007 12:28am
anybody looking at the eur/usd?

macd line right below 0. Anything here????
  • #8,872
  • Edited 3:41am Nov 29, 2007 2:16am | Edited 3:41am
Hi,

my trade:

eur/usd in triangle formation, price has found resistance at upper tl
broke through 8 and 21 ema and possibly heading towards 89 sma
macd boz

8:10 gmt

eur/usd

short 1,4800

sl 1,4839 -39 above 21ema

tp 1,4740 +60 above 89sma


r:r 39:60

depending on the movement round the 89 I will take partial tp or full tp


8:22

actually at +47 pips

sl +/- 0


8:33

1/2 tp +60 pips


9:08

sl +10

I wait for a possible continuation down but I also want to secure 10 pips of the other half

actually at +45


9:37

1/2 tp taken + 50 pips


total

+55 pips




I apprechiate comments and corrections


Greetings
  • #8,873
  • Nov 29, 2007 3:12am Nov 29, 2007 3:12am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Rick! Dr. Pips Here...and thank you for the compliment (I'm very into the psychology and mental aspect of trading)....ahem, that was a compliment, right?

IK, I've been up for a long time taking care of a sick family member, so I appologize for the ramblings & hope they make some sense:.

Happy trading,
Pips
Pips,
Thank you for your analysis. Of course it was a compliment...I consider you one of the rock stars on this thread (I just want to party like a rock star). I always look forward to your contributions.
Rick
  • #8,874
  • Nov 29, 2007 4:09am Nov 29, 2007 4:09am
nice TC on EurUsd
Entry 1.4802
Stoploss 1.4845
TP 1.4740 ( I went for 89SMA taking full profit)
  • #8,875
  • Nov 29, 2007 6:17am Nov 29, 2007 6:17am
Quoting saint_berzer
anybody looking at the eur/usd?

macd line right below 0. Anything here????

Yup:

But, the GDP news is due this morning and the word is an 'upward revision' = a higher number which could strengthen the dollar. The 4hr is back at the 89 again and the 1hr is at the 365 again. The GDP can be a big mover so I'm going to wait until after this is released to be safe.....
  • #8,876
  • Nov 29, 2007 6:21am Nov 29, 2007 6:21am
Quoting jeta

The best hedge funds that manage over 250 million in capitol don't overshoot 40% average of a 3 year period. The best performing hedge funds tend to go both short and long on equities (stocks). Here is the particular data I am refering to: http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...d50_071001.pdf
It seems stocks are easier to trade than forex.
To create a hedged portfolio of shares is a lot more difficult to achieve than developing a directional strategy looking at between 1 and 5 currency pairs.
The fact that a "hedge" fund is hedged limits its upside gain anyway.
So to compare these funds to traders performance on FF is like comparing apples with oranges, which are not the only fruit.
  • #8,877
  • Nov 29, 2007 6:42am Nov 29, 2007 6:42am
Hi,

usd/chf could form a macd double top with divergence.
it has crossed 89sma and according to the rules it may
come back to 21ema before moving on.

there could be a possibility for a short trade

what do you think?

Greetings
Attached Image
  • #8,878
  • Nov 29, 2007 7:04am Nov 29, 2007 7:04am
GMT +1

kind of a weird situation in cable

break out of Triangle to the upside and breaks back down and finds support at 2,06

would you trade it as a rounded top in MACD and maybe a pullback to a MA?

Till
Frankfurt
  • #8,879
  • Nov 29, 2007 7:05am Nov 29, 2007 7:05am
btw
that's what I meant with traditional technical analysis in fx

the breakout out of the symmetrical triangle ion GBPUSD was a fake one
  • #8,880
  • Nov 29, 2007 7:08am Nov 29, 2007 7:08am
Quoting ashes
Hi,

usd/chf could form a macd double top with divergence.
it has crossed 89sma and according to the rules it may
come back to 21ema before moving on.

there could be a possibility for a short trade

what do you think?

Greetings
US GDP out in 20 minutes, that might shake it
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