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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #51,781
  • Nov 27, 2007 5:45pm Nov 27, 2007 5:45pm
Might test the 1hr. 200ema again.
  • #51,782
  • Nov 27, 2007 5:58pm Nov 27, 2007 5:58pm
1hr. 5sma complete.
  • #51,783
  • Nov 27, 2007 6:22pm Nov 27, 2007 6:22pm
We believe we are going to see a recession in ‘08
Like most economists, we get asked frequently whether or not we are going to
see a recession in the coming year. We think the answer is yes, even if we do not
have a negative real GDP growth in the forecast.
What we do have is virtually flat domestic demand, which is over a 1% contraction
in real per capita terms, a near-1% drop in consumer spending in the first half of the
year, and a full percentage point rise in the unemployment rate, which in the past
was recessionary. If past is prescient, the National Bureau of Economic Research
won't tell us if a recession has started for another two years, so the jury is still out.
And, while recessions usually are characterized by declining real GDP, keep in mind
that this metric averaged +0.8% in 2001. Our +1.4% forecast for 2008 is skewed by
a solid export picture, but domestic demand is seen coming in at a paltry +0.4%,
which would be even weaker than the +1.8% posted in the 2001 recession year.
If indeed, this ends up getting classified as a recession, then what we can offer up is
that the stock market is barely priced halfway for such an event, and the funds rate
doesn't bottom until it hits 0% or even negative in real terms (adjusted for core
inflation). This is why we see a 2% funds rate, in nominal terms, and a hugely steep
yield curve with the 10-year note bottoming around 3.5% before this cycle is done.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is one of the most
reliable real-time indictors of economic activity
This view got some ratification today because one of the most reliable real-time
indicators of economic activity is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which
comes out monthly and includes an array (85 to be exact) of indicators that span
employment, production, consumer spending and housing. This index slid 0.73
points in October from a -0.25 average in 3Q — it is now down three months in a
row and in five of the past six. We haven't seen a number that low since April 2003
when the corporate sector froze up between the onset of Sarbanes-Oxley and the
Iraq war and the Fed was fretting over deflation risks and the jobless recovery. North American Economist
MLPF&S
[email protected]
  • #51,784
  • Nov 27, 2007 7:08pm Nov 27, 2007 7:08pm
bounced off 1hr 100sma & daily 5sma on first try
  • #51,785
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:06pm Nov 27, 2007 8:06pm
At the risk of being slightly off topic, I think the first post of this thread would be good reading material for anyone who hasn't already done so:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156
  • #51,786
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:27pm Nov 27, 2007 8:27pm
Hi every body. Is there a post where is the explanation of the Auslanco system ?

I had tried of down it from the post 1 but is does not work. SORRY FOR MY POOR ENGLISH.

BEST REGARDS
  • #51,787
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:31pm Nov 27, 2007 8:31pm
Bravo Pips_Cruiser

Quoting Pips_Cruiser
At the risk of being slightly off topic, I think the first post of this thread would be good reading material for anyone who hasn't already done so:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156
  • #51,788
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:36pm Nov 27, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting Dibanos
Hi every body. Is there a post where is the explanation of the Auslanco system ?

I had tried of down it from the post 1 but is does not work. SORRY FOR MY POOR ENGLISH.

BEST REGARDS
there u go buddy

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/

http://auslanco-fx.blogspot.com/

and that's for his new thread :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=54585
  • #51,789
  • Edited 9:34pm Nov 27, 2007 9:14pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting alnames
hi everyone,i have been having great time in this forum going through all the articles since i joined.You guys have been of a great help to me and i know you all going to reap the good works.
I will like to get a mentor that will guide and see me through and i will be ready to do like a student to teacher.
Am still looking for a good brokers too and to start with $100 (i know is small). I will like to say hi to bluerose, mike, Auslanco,dimmi, Imanra..., a host of other great members.Thanks http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
QUOTE:
Success is not measure by what you acquire but by the number of persons you were able to raise to success.
Hi, Alnames,

Welcome to Auslanco's thread,

I gather that you are looking for a mentor but so far no response. We are all very busy here and maybe that's why no one has commited. However, if you are determined to be a great trader, just read the thread, starting with with post 1 where Auslanco wrote his methodologies.

After that, if you have any specific question, just ask, I'm sure that there will be responses to the Specific questions.

If you are beginner, go first to babypips.com to familiar yourself with the terminology etc..

In FF, there is also other legendary traders such as Bravado who seems to have vanished. I enclose here his guidance for newbies in reading FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19825

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12227


I have no clue how to trade with USD 100. I would lose it immediately. Maybe others can guide you on that.

Best wishes to you. BR
  • #51,790
  • Nov 27, 2007 10:22pm Nov 27, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting karmostaji
Ok, I'm short from here trading the retracement from this last bull-run from 222.37, 1st target is the 50 fibo 224.07 , but if 1H QQE crosses downwards, then I'll keep my short until 223 area

Goodnight
That was some easy pips, retracement seems to be over and now I expect the uptrend to continue, I'm currently long so let's see what London brings.

Enjoy
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,791
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:07pm Nov 27, 2007 11:07pm
The market is riding exactly on the piviot line (224.20). If it breaks down, I expect to fall down to 222.8 area which is support 1.

I expect some downfalls today due to bad economic news but for now, I trade what I see based on my indicators.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #51,792
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:51pm Nov 27, 2007 11:51pm
Hi,
Good job Aus

Guys, we have a simetrical triangle so it's beeter to see where is going to breakout.
  • #51,793
  • Nov 28, 2007 1:43am Nov 28, 2007 1:43am
Quoting karmostaji
Getting engaged soon,

congratulations habibi !

best wishes to all your happiness.

HM
  • #51,794
  • Nov 28, 2007 1:43am Nov 28, 2007 1:43am
do we have the 15min system signal to go long before the news on USD
  • #51,795
  • Nov 28, 2007 1:46am Nov 28, 2007 1:46am
Durables/Home Sales And The Markets
We're really getting into the thick of things now as the numbers start to match up with the credit crisis. October readings for durable orders and existing home sales could start showing just how bad things could go from here.

Industrial production contracted in October and there were declines in the October ISM for new orders and production, so there's a good chance to see core durables below the consensus 0.4 percent.

And much tighter lending standards coupled with declining housing prices could cause the year over year existing home sales to push below 5 million, which would be the lowest number seen for around 8 years.

Markets had a nice recovery on Tuesday from Monday's steep plunge. That wasn't too surprising because a 10 percent correction was likely to be seen as a buying opportunity to many. The Citigroup/Abu Dhabi deal seemed to turn the market on also, in spite of the hawkish Plossner speech. The feds are trying to talk the market out of a cut at the December meeting and if the market starts believing them-things could get messy.

If the numbers do print as i see them, I expect a repeat of the Monday sell off. Traders will up their bets on a fed rate cut in spite of the hawkish rhetoric and that will push up bond prices and drive equities and carry trades down. In that case the JPY crosses will fall, including USD/JPY.
  • #51,796
  • Nov 28, 2007 1:57am Nov 28, 2007 1:57am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
congratulations habibi !

best wishes to all your happiness.

HM
Good to see you here HM!!
Long time no see!
  • #51,797
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:24am Nov 28, 2007 3:24am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
congratulations habibi !

best wishes to all your happiness.

HM
Thanks bro, it's good to see you
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,798
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:25am Nov 28, 2007 3:25am
Quoting karmostaji
That was some easy pips, retracement seems to be over and now I expect the uptrend to continue, I'm currently long so let's see what London brings.

Enjoy
Everything is looking great, let's see how high can it go
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #51,799
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:26am Nov 28, 2007 3:26am
Quoting s.a.mabos
Durables/Home Sales And The Markets
We're really getting into the thick of things now as the numbers start to match up with the credit crisis. October readings for durable orders and existing home sales could start showing just how bad things could go from here.

Industrial production contracted in October and there were declines in the October ISM for new orders and production, so there's a good chance to see core durables below the consensus 0.4 percent.

And much tighter lending standards coupled with declining housing prices could cause the year over year existing home sales to push below 5 million, which would be the lowest number seen for around 8 years.

Markets had a nice recovery on Tuesday from Monday's steep plunge. That wasn't too surprising because a 10 percent correction was likely to be seen as a buying opportunity to many. The Citigroup/Abu Dhabi deal seemed to turn the market on also, in spite of the hawkish Plossner speech. The feds are trying to talk the market out of a cut at the December meeting and if the market starts believing them-things could get messy.

If the numbers do print as i see them, I expect a repeat of the Monday sell off. Traders will up their bets on a fed rate cut in spite of the hawkish rhetoric and that will push up bond prices and drive equities and carry trades down. In that case the JPY crosses will fall, including USD/JPY.
Agreed!
  • #51,800
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:30am Nov 28, 2007 3:30am
Quoting karmostaji
Everything is looking great, let's see how high can it go
Possible target 226.60 area
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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