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More Bad News For The Dollar

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 8:14pm Jan 1, 2007 7:23pm | Edited 8:14pm
The Fed is in a "box" right now.

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53350
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2007 7:38pm Jan 1, 2007 7:38pm
Ok chicken little calm down.

The us economy is not as weak as everyone thinks it is.

There will be a moderate slow down I am sure.

But the bottom won't fall out of the us economy without there being a world wide depression.
  • #3
  • Jan 1, 2007 7:42pm Jan 1, 2007 7:42pm
Chicken little! Thats a new one. I hope you are right. I am not an economist, I just play one while reading the posts.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #4
  • Jan 1, 2007 7:55pm Jan 1, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting athalon7
Chicken little! Thats a new one. I hope you are right. I am not an economist, I just play one while reading the posts.
LOL, yeah.....................not a good idea to gather your info from a cheap web advertisement
  • #5
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:15pm Jan 1, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting Michaelw
LOL, yeah.....................not a good idea to gather your info from a cheap web advertisement
Hows that? I was more interested in the links. I am an American. I pay my bills with the dollar. My feeling is the more awareness the better.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #6
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:26pm Jan 1, 2007 8:26pm
I don't like those scary articles. I thought World net daily is a good conservative news site. Why do they have so many forex related horror stories?
  • #7
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:28pm Jan 1, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting nitman
I don't like those scary articles. I thought World net daily is a good conservative news site. Why do they have so many forex related horror stories?
They are a good conservative site. Reality is reality. I am hopefull steps are taken so these dire stories do not come true. Suppressing information is not how you do it, though.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #8
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:39pm Jan 1, 2007 8:39pm
Quoting athalon7
Hows that? I was more interested in the links. I am an American. I pay my bills with the dollar. My feeling is the more awareness the better.
From looking at this article, I would say that WND is a poor news source. The first analyst being quoted in the article isn't exactly a respected authority in the finance/economics world. I've never heard of him and Wikipedia has nothing on him. His website doesn't even say much about him. It's a similar case with the other analyst, but that guy happens to have a newsletter with 100,000 subscribers. In any case, neither of the guys are really respected authorities. You'll also notice towards the end of the article, it turns the dollar issue and spins it into an issue that WorldNetDaily pushes in all of its news stories, which is the possibility of a "North American Union". This is just really horrible journalism. Please don't take anything WND says about economics or finance seriously.
  • #9
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:42pm Jan 1, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting athalon7
Hows that? I was more interested in the links. I am an American. I pay my bills with the dollar. My feeling is the more awareness the better.
What about the links??? They're all biased and opinionated. Cheap marketing trick to get you to buy their product.

Enough said.
  • #10
  • Jan 1, 2007 8:56pm Jan 1, 2007 8:56pm
Quoting mickeymickey
From looking at this article, I would say that WND is a poor news source. The first analyst being quoted in the article isn't exactly a respected authority in the finance/economics world. I've never heard of him and Wikipedia has nothing on him. His website doesn't even say much about him. It's a similar case with the other analyst, but that guy happens to have a newsletter with 100,000 subscribers. In any case, neither of the guys are really respected authorities. You'll also notice towards the end of the article, it turns the dollar issue and spins it into an issue that WorldNetDaily pushes in all of its news stories, which is the possibility of a "North American Union". This is just really horrible journalism. Please don't take anything WND says about economics or finance seriously.
The only problem I have the with so-called 'respected authorities' is that all too frequently they have acquired that title by being pawns of the powers-that-be. That may actually make them LESS reliable than less known individuals, who may be able to voice independent, frequently more acurate, views. That is certainly the case in my profession.
  • #11
  • Jan 1, 2007 9:02pm Jan 1, 2007 9:02pm
Rather than attack the authors, why not try to discredit the data provided? One issue I have with the current administration is its penchant for:
(1) discrediting anyone who disagrees with its views/policies, labeling dissenting voices everything from traitors to raving, flaming liberals; and

(2) refusing to see reality even when reality is patently obvious to other nations.

In reading the article, I didn't see any misleading information although I thought creating the "Amero" might be an extreme.
However:
It's a fact that the government ceased publising M3 and while the 10% projected increase of M3 is just that, a projection, it's not unreasonable.

It's a fact that we have staggering debt and enormous budget deficits.

And it's a fact that the dollar weakened to multi-month lows in December.

Clearly stated were the potential consequences of FOMC rate changes in 2007. Curious enough, they don't mention the flood of counterfeit dollars, nor do they mention nations dumping dollars for euros (at least I didn't see it).

So attacking the authors carries no weight with me. Disprove the quantifiable evidence then we can talk. We are in a recession (but the administration doesn't want to admit it....but they're the same people who see an "insurgency" rather than a "civil war" in Iraq). FOMC must reduce rates in 2007 and the dollar must fall. Cable at 2.000 is not improbable; it's just a matter of time. Consider for example, that in March 2006 cable was at 7300; it's now 2300 points higher.

You might not like the news, but don't shoot the messenger.
  • #12
  • Jan 1, 2007 9:17pm Jan 1, 2007 9:17pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Rather than attack the authors, why not try to discredit the data provided? One issue I have with the current administration is its penchant for:
(1) discrediting anyone who disagrees with its views/policies, labeling dissenting voices everything from traitors to raving, flaming liberals; and

(2) refusing to see reality even when reality is patently obvious to other nations.

In reading the article, I didn't see any misleading information although I thought creating the "Amero" might be an extreme.
However:
It's a fact that the government ceased publising M3 and while the 10% projected increase of M3 is just that, a projection, it's not unreasonable.

It's a fact that we have staggering debt and enormous budget deficits.

And it's a fact that the dollar weakened to multi-month lows in December.

Clearly stated were the potential consequences of FOMC rate changes in 2007. Curious enough, they don't mention the flood of counterfeit dollars, nor do they mention nations dumping dollars for euros (at least I didn't see it).

So attacking the authors carries no weight with me. Disprove the quantifiable evidence then we can talk. We are in a recession (but the administration doesn't want to admit it....but they're the same people who see an "insurgency" rather than a "civil war" in Iraq). FOMC must reduce rates in 2007 and the dollar must fall. Cable at 2.000 is not improbable; it's just a matter of time. Consider for example, that in March 2006 cable was at 7300; it's now 2300 points higher.

You might not like the news, but don't shoot the messenger.
quality response! Thank you for that :-)
  • #13
  • Jan 1, 2007 9:40pm Jan 1, 2007 9:40pm
I hear ya on the attack point of view. I am not going to utter slanders here. I am not an economist, in fact I will be the first to tell you it does not come naturally to me. What is the Fed going to do in January is the question. Raise rates: dollar strengthens but the economy stalls. Lower rates: dollar falls more, but the economy is helped. That really cuts to the point of my original post since this is a currency forum.

I am not "bashing" the dollar. I love America. I hear predictions from both sides. All I can look at is reality from the articles I read with the limited time I have to spend reading them. I do know a delegation was just sent to China with the big dogs in attendence. I know currency was the major reason. Like or dis-like WND, this is a fact. Counterfeit dollars: I personally don't think the Fed keeps changing the bills because they have nothing better to do, so yes, I think there is a concerted effort to devalue the dollar. Although it would take A LOT of bills to do that.

The M3 data has ceased. I don't even know much about that other than I read a couple of weeks ago it was no longer published. I know Iran and China are enemies especially since China is competing for oil and will do so more and more. China holds a lot of dollars.

In hindsite I probably should have not started this post. America is strong. Our workforce output is second to none. Like many things, our politicians tend to put things off.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #14
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:06am Jan 2, 2007 12:06am
Quoting athalon7
I do know a delegation was just sent to China with the big dogs in attendence. I know currency was the major reason. Like or dis-like WND, this is a fact. Counterfeit dollars: I personally don't think the Fed keeps changing the bills because they have nothing better to do, so yes, I think there is a concerted effort to devalue the dollar. Although it would take A LOT of bills to do that.

The delegation to China was more in regards to China's currency than the USD. China's currency is pegged at a rate that is far undervalued. Consequently, the US can afford a ton of Chinese products because they're so relatively cheap for us. This is why we have a large trade deficit with China. The US government wants the Yuan un-pegged to alleviate this problem.
  • #15
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:25am Jan 2, 2007 12:25am
Quoting athalon7
Counterfeit dollars: I personally don't think the Fed keeps changing the bills because they have nothing better to do, so yes, I think there is a concerted effort to devalue the dollar. Although it would take A LOT of bills to do that.
On the matter of counterfeit dollars, see excerpt below from WSJ, published June 2005. The matter has become much worse since the article was published with reportedly hundreds of millions in counterfeit $100 bills flooding the market.
***************************************

U.S. Seeks to Curb Illicit Business in Cigarettes,
Drugs, Currency to Augment Diplomacy
By JAY SOLOMON in Washington and GORDON FAIRCLOUGH in Seoul, South Korea
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 1, 2005

As the North Korea nuclear crisis deepens, an interagency team inside the Bush administration is working with East Asian governments to curb what U.S. officials say is Pyongyang's booming trade in counterfeit cigarettes, pharmaceuticals and currency.

The Secret Service also is pursuing a criminal investigation of North Korean entities for their alleged involvement in making counterfeit dollars in Asia, according to an official close to the investigation. If a case goes forward, it would mark the first time a North Korean entity would be charged in a U.S. court with dealing in illicit businesses.
...
U.S. officials also are watching North Korea's alleged counterfeit-dollar operations. In August, the Secret Service worked with Taiwan's Anti-Counterfeiting Task Force to uncover $140,000 of fake U.S. currency. Taiwanese investigators today say the stash could be part of a larger counterfeit-dollar operation run out of North Korea that could have as much as $20 million in fakes in circulation.
In a speech last month, Douglas H. Paal, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington's de facto embassy in Taipei, called the discovery of a large quantity of North Korean super notes -- or high-quality counterfeit U.S. dollars -- circulating in Taiwan over the summer a "frightening wake-up call."

---- Chiu Piling in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this article.



Write to Jay Solomon at [color=#0253b7][email protected][/color] and Gordon Fairclough at [color=#0253b7][email protected][/color]

<!-- article end -->
*****************************************
  • #16
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:35am Jan 2, 2007 2:35am
Quoting mickeymickey
The delegation to China was more in regards to China's currency than the USD. China's currency is pegged at a rate that is far undervalued. Consequently, the US can afford a ton of Chinese products because they're so relatively cheap for us. This is why we have a large trade deficit with China. The US government wants the Yuan un-pegged to alleviate this problem.
Absolutely correct. But the ramifications affect the U.S. dollar as well. Again, I am not an economist, but its like a big pie for lack of a better comparison. Economy, interest rates, dollar, inflation, spending, GDP, trade and budget deficit, and on and on. Your right, though.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #17
  • Jan 2, 2007 9:14am Jan 2, 2007 9:14am
Actually Van Tharp, in his new second edition that just came out, says something similar. He expects that the Fed will try to inflate the national debt out of existence. It can then be paid off with worthless dollars, while a new currency is put in its place. As Uncle Ben says we can't go broke, we own the presses.
  • #18
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:27pm Jan 2, 2007 12:27pm
When the Yuan starts to rise it must happen very slowly. The revered Alan Greenspan projected misery in about 20 years when the Chinese labor rate becomes comparable with 'western' rates.

Another truth is that China is sitting on its own vast energy reserves, and I expect the Chinese to carefully control the use of those resources. They have already clamped down on foreign companies attempting to get-in on the procurement of locally sourced oil.

China does not want the Yuan to rise much. Its current level extinguishes demand for foreign products because the average worker simply cannot afford anything made outside China. This keeps the Chinese economy in a strong position and means that the Chinese government could buy grain from the US to feed its population without becoming beholden to the US economic machinery. BTW $25 per week is a good wage for a factory worker in China.

We in 'the west' rely heavily on the cheap labour rate in under-developed countries. When that imbalance disappears some of our consumables such as clothing will have to cost 10 times more. So we have around 10 to 15 years to come up with the answer. . . .
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #19
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:53pm Jan 2, 2007 12:53pm
I am wondering why US fx traders take it personal when some talk starts about dollar fall I believe the one who started this thread intended to alert us about a possible big trend that we would try to catch as traders.

what if dollar crashed while you're long euro, wouldn't that be nice?

You have to set your priorities as a trader and control your patriot emotions, cause obviously as a dollar-patriot you might keep tending to buy dollar regardless of the TA you learnt ignoring major signs.

I don't mean that i have any idea if the dollar would crash or apreciate, i'm just talking about the idea.

If you're american and think that dollar will crash why not even switch your deposit account to euro or gbp. there's nothing patriot about this. It's about wealth managment and riding the trends. It can always be good news in anycase just if you know in advance.
  • #20
  • Jan 2, 2007 1:10pm Jan 2, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting FXscalper
I am wondering why US fx traders take it personal when some talk starts about dollar fall I believe the one who started this thread intended to alert us about a possible big trend that we would try to catch as traders.

what if dollar crashed while you're long euro, wouldn't that be nice?

You have to set your priorities as a trader and control your patriot emotions, cause obviously as a dollar-patriot you might keep tending to buy dollar regardless of the TA you learnt ignoring major signs.

I don't mean that i have any idea if the dollar would crash or apreciate, i'm just talking about the idea.

If you're american and think that dollar will crash why not even switch your deposit account to euro or gbp. there's nothing patriot about this. It's about wealth managment and riding the trends. It can always be good news in anycase just if you know in advance.

So very true and so very well put.
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