Lazy analyses thread

I had quite a few requests to post my analyses lately, so without further delay let me say a few things what I will be posting and what the rules are of this thread.
1st. I do not promise to post regularly, only when my views have been validated, invalidated.
2nd. The thread is open for discussion, I will post charts and a detailed overview of the situation.
3rd. Some of my views may be shocking to some readers but they will be thouroughly explained, if you disagree give me the courteousy to provide a detailed explanation of your own views, I always welcome the contrarian point of view. That said posts like " this is not possible, you are off the wall, I don't see the price going there, and so forth will not be tolerated and will be placed on the ignore list right away unless they are clearly supported by the authors, tech or fundies views are welcomed.
4th. If you don't have anything constractive to say, please don't clutter the thread, I'm a lazy person and if I will put in so much effort into my detailed analyses to be actually readable, I at least will enjoy going back and seeing if mistakes were made, where and why, that's the only way to evolve, inmo.
5th. I welcome any type of constructive questions, but will not answer anything basic, this is not a newbie educational thread, sorry.

Good luck with it, nice to see more participation. I pray you get more input/discussion than the similar thread I started for the same purpose.


Sadly, it is the the basic understanding of how the market operates that most people lack, and which leads to the greatest manner of sustaining profitability. All the misconceptions and false theories in the world of trading are a direct result of not knowing the "basics".

Good luck.

I'm posting 2 charts for geppy that were previously posted in the very beginning of November, as you can see the target area was achieved on the exact date and place(price), I will also post an updated chart reflecting a current PA. Will be back in a few hours with detailed explanation on the possible scenarios, targets and my medium to long term views.

Here is an updated view, be back with full analyses and my personal outlook plus a few more charts on the g/u, e/u, j/u, cad/u, aud/u and more of the geppy of course

Thank you Plutonite, well then at least your input would be expected, lol
See you later
Gene

I appologize for not posting as promised, but both of my systems crashed, the main and the back up, had to trade from memory, and now redrawing 50 some charts, long, medium and short term from memory, is it so frustrating, the words can't begin to describe it, missed several entries by 1-3 pips, as well as take profits that didn't triger by the same amount because couldn't get the exact relationships down as had on my previous charts, unbelivable to say the least. I'm beyond frustrated, annoyed and pissed to say the least, even the back up with all of the charts got corrupted, how? I have no idea it's beyond me. Will work through the weekend and do a complete rundown on majors and crosses.
Btw that correction that we are seeing is still a correction, we may still see a much lower low, but it is also possible that we may correct all the way through mid january 14-16 approximatelly, 235 level is it, that's the max. unless we close above it we will still see 210 and lower. For now will go back to the drawing board to recreate all of my charts.

LOL - lazy is not a word that I can possibly associate with the ammount of study and work necessary to create your analysis!

Sorry to hear of your data problems, that's a worry to all of us - just hope that redrawing your charts will bring an even better result.

I look forward to seeing and benefiting your next analysis and hope that others will do too.

Regards

Islander

Thank you islander, the reason I called it lazy, is because it takes me an extraordinary amout of time to get the right angles ratios, counts on the long to medium term charts, once it's done, they are usually good for at least a few years, my short term is much simpler to analyse as I have the more or less major swings planed out and it's just scaling in out of posistions and sometimes agressive daily scalping, when I say scalping it's at least for a 100-150 pips. Ok back to the drawing board. BTW I see a major fall in the g/u. it's definetelly coming I'm still working on the timing issue, this week I think, but don't have anything concrete, redrawing the whole esoteric thing from memory is giving me a headache. In any case as soon as the yen touches 110.90 -111.20, that's the bottom of the broken neckline, we should be back to selling as usual.Those levels are a must, as well as 101.90. We could see a more complex correction extending to 113.50 but I don't favor that scenario at the moment.

See you

Man, I am really sorry. It's also one of my own worst nightmares to lose some of my charts, although considering I've "simplified" most lately I could probably redraw them pretty swiftly if need be.

I use MT4 and therefore zip and backup my profiles / templates folders regularly. I send myself an email with them attached as well as copying them to DVD-RW and external HDDs. I strongly suggest a regular weekly backup schedule for core important stuff like charts, email, other personal data etc.

Btw I'll gladly second the cable drop.

I have the same ABC targets on UJ as you for the end of the current correction as well (110.90 / 111.40).

Thanks SL, I had backups, but they got corrupted, how? I have no idea, some of my charts are "esoteric" I call them, there is some stuff that's conventional, and some that is not, so it takes a while to recreate as I myself sometimes can't see the same thing twice, I'm weird I guess. Btw, j/u can certainly get to that target but if we are experiencing ABC than 108.50-109 is in order first, I beleive that we may have a nice bearish scenario tomorrow on geppy. I have my long term positions in place, so will just observe, my ideal target was around 210 for the end of this month 3rd, 4th december to be exact. But from the looks of things right now I don't know how probable it is at the moment. I have some time lines indicating a correction from that point through mid Januaru. In any case so far my master chart which I finally recreated for geppy was very precize and 215.20-50 is a must tomorrow, sounds off the wall even to me, but this level where we stopped even though has some technical significance, makes absolutelly no sense from my master chart perspective, even though I'm an optimist I don't see that type of drop coming, so I guess will have to do some tweaking over the weekend.

Ok, I'm toying with some experimental stuff, not trading just observing, but here are some scenarios for the immediate future, will post analyses if it plays out, here we go, around 00 EST time tomorrow 30th, I would expect the price to be in one of 3 places, 224.25, 222.90-223, or 231.60. My hypotesis, is that the price will turn around upon reaching those areas, the rebound should be rather strong, 250-300 pips at least. Please note I expect the price to match with time, unless it does the setup is incorrect. There is also a possibility of a strong continuation, but at the moment I'm leaning towards a reversal.
Do not recommend taking any positions as this has not been tested yet, testing now.

Hi gene, All the best with your new thread bro.

Thank's bro

Ok, I'm posting a long term chart for J/U it is pretty much self explanatory, this is actually not my drawing, but since this is my exact same view and this chart is much cleaner I decided to post this one instead of my own.

Now here is the projected target that I see within the next 4 years, it does look quite shocking, well at least to me, but according to the technical structure at the moment that's where I see it. The reason I'm showing this pair is to get an indepth picture of the geppy, which should allow for the maximum risk reward ratio within the current time frame. I will zoom in now to the Daily now to see where we might see the correction that we are experiencing at the moment end.

Zooming in to an immediate future we can clearly see a H&S pattern on the daily, there are a couple of possible necklines they are marked in yellow, possibility one calls for a retracement ot a broken neckline around 111.30 which we had just completed, another possibility calls for a slightly higher retracement to 111.60-75. Price action needs to be watched closely around these levels. Also if you look at the daily there is a smaller h&s pattern on the very right of the chart, that had happened allready. Zooming in to a 15 min we can see that the 5 corrective waves up terminated around 111.30. Looking at MACD we can see a negative divergence pointing out to a retrace to 110.50 area and possibly even deeper to 109.15. I'm favouring a complete turnaround upon ju reaching 111.60-75 areas, it could go higher. We will see a pullback to the areas indicated but that to me does not mean that the correction is over, for now I'd like to see where the price would be around the 6th and 7th of this week, from the time point of view the correction has a high probability of ending at that time.
So, to recap, I still see aa area of 100 as an immediate target. Small intraday trades are possible both ways, note areas indictaed. Will start building up short positions higher than 111.30 all the way up to 113.60, stop just above 116.
Will post Gu analyses in a few hours, and then we will attempt to put it all together to get the most benefit of carry trade readjustment on the geppy.

Here are the charts, didn't upload the first time

Thanks gene for the charts and levels. Looking at similiar stuff as said before it seems

I'm no good with EW, but I've got the same "ideas" and areas

I see two 5 subwave swings down with the first one having a more complex looking correction, perhaps that's why the current one is so impulsive/simple.

Either that or we're not really in an impulse downwards anymore and screwed

Attached my random guessing that goes for a count here along with some areas where it'd be really nice of price to stall and fall.

SL, it sounds like you are second quessing what the charts are telling you, sometimes the picture that we get is not clear at all and that's when I rty to stay away, now on the other hand it is pretty obvious, well so far at least, the price just bounce to test the neckline exact level was hit. Now, do I think that this is it for a correction, no, but I do feel that we will see 101 before the end of March of next year, Don't sweat it keep the longterm in persepective, as long as 116 is not taken out, we should see 101, that said, for now I would treat this as a rare opportunity to buils some nice shorts, the higher the better.

Gene

The leftovers are one from 116.64 and rest is 117.00

Thanks for the opinion. Yes, I saw GJ bounce right at the neckline the first time, but had expected it to be retested another time shortly afterwards. Instead the 800 pip rally.

C'est la vie

If I get a nice setup I will take it.

Trouble is my charts are bullish on most carry pairs(and USD bullish) according to price, hence the second guessing