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Daily/Intraday Momentum Analysis

  • #1,081
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:33pm Nov 26, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting forexnovice
Hi Auslanco

I am still learning to read momentum. My daily charts start @ 00:00 GMT & they r different frm urs with all the 3 momentum
1c-green
10c-blue
14c-brown pointing upwards. Ur reply will be really appreciated. Thanks & Keep Up the Terrific Work!

You sure that's GBPJPY?
  • #1,082
  • Edited 6:46pm Nov 26, 2007 6:46pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting dimmi
You sure that's GBPJPY?
i have two different mt4 platform chart running alongwith vt.

one of mt4 and vt shows same mom as aus's...........other mt4 updates at 1900 est show exactly as forexnovice's mom.
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #1,083
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:50pm Nov 26, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting dimmi
You sure that's GBPJPY?
Here is the chart again with the daily bar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tuesday1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,084
  • Nov 26, 2007 6:53pm Nov 26, 2007 6:53pm
I believe Auslanco is using FXDD... this is a NY Time server... day candle starts at NY 00:00 - EST [London 5:00 - GMT]... therefore, London [GMT] server and NY [EST] server will show different candles, MAs, etc...

We just need to learn to use London server and try to apply Auslanco's strategy with what we have...
  • #1,085
  • Edited 7:10pm Nov 26, 2007 6:56pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting auslanco
A large fall is possible today.Daily 5sma retrcament also due.
Aus,

Are you basing this on your current study of Momentum analysis or is it also based on the potential for a 1H/4H strategy setup by London or NY open? I haven't been able to study Momentum in relation to the 5SMA high/low channel much, but my current Daily is all bullish, my current 12H is all bullish, and my current 8H is all bullish except for the 10c. I am currently seeing a 4H 5SMA retrace to around 223.35 and then a fall down to the most recent Daily low of 221.30 before price bounces back up. However, this Momentum on the higher TFs has befuddled me at times. Any more detailed insights to offer at this time?

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #1,086
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:01pm Nov 26, 2007 7:01pm
I will release my longs at 222.50 area. New VT 4hr bar shows a big drop.
  • #1,087
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:05pm Nov 26, 2007 7:05pm
TY for the update!
  • #1,088
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:15pm Nov 26, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting my2buoys
Aus,

Are you basing this on your current study of Momentum analysis or is it also based on the potential for a 1H/4H strategy setup by London or NY open? I haven't been able to study Momentum in relation to the 5SMA high/low channel much, but my current Daily is all bullish, my current 12H is all bullish, and my current 8H is all bullish except for the 10c. I am currently seeing a 4H 5SMA retrace to around 223.35 and then a fall down to the most recent Daily low of 221.30 before price bounces back up. However, this Momentum on the higher TFs has befuddled me at times. Any more detailed insights to offer at this time?

M2B
You are abosou;ty rioght bro.. My Daily which started at 0.00GMT pointing all up including the 12hr..

But the new 4hr has formed outside the 5sma channal.. indicating a retracement upto 4hr 5sma (LOW) depends on how strong the current bearish trend. 233.30 was my earlier target but since the Tokyo Pivot at 233, I thought that was a safe target. Right now I'm waiting for a 15min strategy short signal to go short.
  • #1,089
  • Nov 26, 2007 7:17pm Nov 26, 2007 7:17pm
Quoting auslanco
You are abosou;ty rioght bro.. My Daily which started at 0.00GMT pointing all up including the 12hr..

But the new 4hr has formed outside the 5sma channal.. indicating a retracement upto 4hr 5sma (LOW) depends on how strong the current bearish trend. 233.30 was my earlier target but since the Tokyo Pivot at 233, I thought that was a safe target. Right now I'm waiting for a 15min strategy short signal to go short.
Thanks for the clarification, bro.

M2B
  • #1,090
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:23pm Nov 26, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting auslanco
You are abosou;ty rioght bro.. My Daily which started at 0.00GMT pointing all up including the 12hr..

But the new 4hr has formed outside the 5sma channal.. indicating a retracement upto 4hr 5sma (LOW) depends on how strong the current bearish trend. 233.30 was my earlier target but since the Tokyo Pivot at 233, I thought that was a safe target. Right now I'm waiting for a 15min strategy short signal to go short.
aus,

223 or 233?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #1,091
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm
m2b,

seeing some divergence on the 4hr
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 22 KB
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #1,092
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:44pm Nov 26, 2007 8:44pm
Quoting moneymagnet
m2b,

seeing some divergence on the 4hr
Yes, this 4H divergence has been in the works for a while. As you can see, MACD has been moving up steadily for about two weeks as price has been moving down. I thought the last move up was going to fulfill it but we are still seeing lower highs and lower lows. If price bounces off of the 221.30 area we will probably see a good 500 to 700 pip move up based upon that 4H divergence alone. However, if price breaks through that area we will have to see how it responds to the 219.30 area.

M2B

PS- By the way, Aus did mean 223 in his post.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #1,093
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:56pm Nov 26, 2007 8:56pm
Observe that d asian daily pivot 222.95 was wat stopped our initial long trade. i guess a close above dis and 100 sma on 15mins should confirm momey managements divergence call

Good call bro
  • #1,094
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:59pm Nov 26, 2007 8:59pm
FYI /US Credit crisis and Housing markets are not so good as we no and oil at $100 barrel.will push DOW lower and GBP/JPY. Fall should still be in our overall pic. to my2boys outlook
Quoting my2buoys
Yes, this 4H divergence has been in the works for a while. As you can see, MACD has been moving up steadily for about two weeks as price has been moving down. I thought the last move up was going to fulfill it but we are still seeing lower highs and lower lows. If price bounces off of the 221.30 area we will probably see a good 500 to 700 pip move up based upon that 4H divergence alone. However, if price breaks through that area we will have to see how it responds to the 219.30 area.

M2B

PS- By the way, Aus did mean 223 in his post.
  • #1,095
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:01pm Nov 26, 2007 9:01pm
I posted this on the other thread, but it probably could stand to be posted here as well.

We have a historical monthly trendline from Sept 2000 which the price has not broken, even with the lows of Aug as you can see in my first chart. That trend line is currently at about the 221.40 area.

The second chart shows this trendline on the weekly chart as it relates to the head and shoulders pattern. I would be wary of any trades targeting anything below that level right now.

The monthly chart has respected that line for over 7 years and since we are close to the end of the month, a close below that line would be significant. While in the short term we might penetrate that line, I have my doubts of a weekly or monthly close below it.
Attached Images
  • #1,096
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:09pm Nov 26, 2007 9:09pm
beautiful analyses on those charts bro, we learn every day. 4hr gann, 1hr 100 sma, daily 5sma close all trying to hold price.guys i think this bull is good to go.strong
  • #1,097
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:18pm Nov 26, 2007 9:18pm
What is God's name was that massive move from?
  • #1,098
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:18pm Nov 26, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting turn1to100
FYI /US Credit crisis and Housing markets are not so good as we no and oil at $100 barrel.will push DOW lower and GBP/JPY. Fall should still be in our overall pic. to my2boys outlook
I agree that we will see a fall in the 'overall pic', as you say. However, it's going to be a choppy move down over a period of time measured in weeks and months, not days. This thing isn't going to fall 10,000 pips in a two week period no matter how bad the fundamentals appear. Sometimes as traders we become so focused on the pairs we are trading that we forget that there is a whole lot of other stuff going on in the world. A person can go ahead and hoard all the gold and silver they want to prepare for the coming Armageddon but if things do get that bad there won't be any food or anything else for a person to buy with all that gold anyway. Whenever you start thinking that cataclysmic, it's best to take a week or two break away from trading and go build a snowman with your kid like I did today. It helps bring proper perspective to life.

M2B
  • #1,099
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:20pm Nov 26, 2007 9:20pm
Bounce off weekly 100sma, above this 225.48 in view ie daily 5sma close. where is Aus d great
  • #1,100
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:25pm Nov 26, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting HeavensGate
What is God's name was that massive move from?
I dont want to know. whenever u see a 4hr regular divergence, load up you guns.

Good call to money management
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