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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,781
  • Nov 24, 2007 1:54pm Nov 24, 2007 1:54pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I do not feel eur/chf is a counter trend trade... zoom back on the daily and you will see the real trend is UP.... perhaps now we have finished the "correction" and time to get back to the trend...
i think its a very sharp turn back to the weekly trend (about 500 pips in just 3 weeks),so we cant say its a regular correction and also a daily close below the trend.i think it can breaks down next week.if it breaks the low it can go to 1.6170 .lets wait and see
  • #7,782
  • Nov 24, 2007 2:19pm Nov 24, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I do not feel eur/chf is a counter trend trade... zoom back on the daily and you will see the real trend is UP.... perhaps now we have finished the "correction" and time to get back to the trend...
I agree with this statement 100%.

As far as the USD/CHF trade, I don't know....naturally it seems that the Franc buying may cease a little here, but let's be honest - one of these trades is with the overall trend, and one isn't.

If you go long with USD/CHF, you are going against a monster ride. Going long EUR/CHF, go you going WITH the ride.....much easier in my opinion.

Can they both go up? Of course. Will they both go up? Probably. But I am willing to bet 2% of my account that I can hang on to the EUR/CHF longer than the USD/CHF.

USD/CHF is inverse of EUR/USD, which admittedly is due for a pullback, but I have a hard time believing that a massive run at 1.50 isn't coming. I could be wrong, and if I am, then so be it.

Then, I am looking for the EUR to take a beating. Some of the fundies there are starting to show adverse effects to a high Euro, and then there is the fact that a lot of the European banks are infected with sub-prime as well. It just hasn't been as widely reported. Spain and Italy also have a lot of sub-prime mortgages getting ready to reset as well. 2008 should be interesting. I don't see a collapse in the Euro, just a revaluation of it. It is way too high, and I think of it as a mini-bubble.

I could be wrong about that too. When the time comes, it will show itself. Not anytime soon I would suspect, so in the meantime, I will be buying the Euro against the Franc. Switzerland isn't THAT impressive, it's just panic trading into perceived safety. (I believe the Franc isn't backed by a minimum of 40% gold anymore. It's more a habit than anything else to buy it when things are going goofy. Just like they will be selling Euros and buying dollars later.....people are creatures of habit.)

Long EUR/CHF at 1.6377 baby!

Clockwork

PS - We have fib confluence as well, for you fib traders.
  • #7,783
  • Nov 24, 2007 2:20pm Nov 24, 2007 2:20pm
Perhaps you are right... however, I see each correction so far as being VERY rapid and turning on a dime...

And hopefully if it breaks downwards I will lose nothing because I am not jumping into that PB before it breaks UP...

Quoting bshadroo
i think its a very sharp turn back to the weekly trend (about 500 pips in just 3 weeks),so we cant say its a regular correction and also a daily close below the trend.i think it can breaks down next week.if it breaks the low it can go to 1.6170 .lets wait and see
  • #7,784
  • Nov 24, 2007 2:34pm Nov 24, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Perhaps you are right... however, I see each correction so far as being VERY rapid and turning on a dime...

And hopefully if it breaks downwards I will lose nothing because I am not jumping into that PB before it breaks UP...

I would refer to the old saying that goes something like this:

"When price climbs, it takes the stairs.....when it falls, it takes the elevator."

Most corrections are quicker than the normal uptrend. (I am not even looking at the EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, or even the USD/JPY charts and can tell you that from memory.

However, I am right there with Tiki, if it doesn't break higher, I will not have lost any money.

And if it doesn't break up, and in fact breaks down.....I will be cheering for you bshadroo!

By the time Tiki and I go long with this trade, (if we get the shot at it...) you will already either be out of it, or feeling some heat.

Clockwork
  • #7,785
  • Nov 24, 2007 4:03pm Nov 24, 2007 4:03pm
I will lose nothing because I am not jumping into that PB before it breaks UP...

Hi Tiki Trader, first thanks for posting so many nice charts. It's really cool.
Here I just want to ask you something... Since the high of the pin is not that far, I mean it could break it for some pips then start falling again. I've seen this before and I'm sure you do too, so my question is, how soon are you willing to move your stop to b/e to make sure not to lose any money on a trade like that? But don't get me wrong, I'm looking to buy this one too! I see a nice bullish falling wedge on the 4 hr too but I could be wrong with this one...
Sebastien
  • #7,786
  • Nov 24, 2007 4:44pm Nov 24, 2007 4:44pm
Well, since as you say, the PB is not so long... my stop does not have to be so far away anyways... for once... and If I am risking only 1-3%... I would not lose much anyway... That price could go the other way is always the risk NO ???

But my stop would get moved to breakeven pretty quick I think... we will have to see how things go... but I certainly do not want a winner turning into a loser...

Quoting OGW
I will lose nothing because I am not jumping into that PB before it breaks UP...

Hi Tiki Trader, first thanks for posting so many nice charts. It's really cool.
Here I just want to ask you something... Since the high of the pin is not that far, I mean it could break it for some pips then start falling again. I've seen this before and I'm sure you do too, so my question is, how soon are you willing to move your stop to b/e to make sure not to lose any money on a trade like that? But don't get me wrong, I'm looking to buy this one too! I see a nice bullish falling wedge on the 4 hr too but I could be wrong with this one...
Sebastien
  • #7,787
  • Nov 25, 2007 1:53am Nov 25, 2007 1:53am
Thanks for your reply Tiki! I understand you can't make any money if you don't risk any, so let's go for it and put some orders above that pin!
Sebastien
  • #7,788
  • Nov 25, 2007 4:45am Nov 25, 2007 4:45am
Hey,
I've got a quick question. If I go long EURUSD and short USDCHF is that the same as going long on EURCHF? I am unsure because in the first pair I buy Euro but on the second pair I buy CHF.

Chris
  • #7,789
  • Nov 25, 2007 6:46am Nov 25, 2007 6:46am
Quoting creeper
Hey,
I've got a quick question. If I go long EURUSD and short USDCHF is that the same as going long on EURCHF? I am unsure because in the first pair I buy Euro but on the second pair I buy CHF.

Chris
hi
eurchf goes up 1 pip if:
1-eurusd go up and usdchf go up OR
2-eurusd go up 2 pip and usdchf go down 1 pip OR
3-eurusd go down 1 pip and usdchf go up 2 pip

this is just mathematic and logic:

eur/chf=eur/usd * usd/chf -----------> 1.6351=1.4837 * 1.1021

ur action just covers the seccond condition ,but the 1 or 3 can happen also
  • #7,790
  • Nov 25, 2007 11:35am Nov 25, 2007 11:35am
Quoting creeper
Hey,
I've got a quick question. If I go long EURUSD and short USDCHF is that the same as going long on EURCHF? I am unsure because in the first pair I buy Euro but on the second pair I buy CHF.

Chris
It's not the same, it would be the same if went long on both eu and usdchf.
  • #7,791
  • Nov 25, 2007 12:27pm Nov 25, 2007 12:27pm
So I won't invade Seekings journal so much... I see these two options for USD/JPY... and I am just going to keep it as simple as that... either way... I see 101, and I think I am going to plan for that... I don't see much more room on the first triangle... so gonna break soon... I like the second triangle better because that suggests to me a flag pole dealy going on... and it should break down... or the flag pole idea only works going up ???

A new Tiki is coming next year... and it will sound more like "thats's my story, and I'm stickin to it "...
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  • #7,792
  • Nov 25, 2007 1:57pm Nov 25, 2007 1:57pm
Hi, Tiki Trader! I beleive that second option is more viable, b/c the tl has more touches and more complaisant with current market emotion, so I would play the second option and took short down to 104.
  • #7,793
  • Nov 25, 2007 2:20pm Nov 25, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting saskgui
I understand the point of patience however if i have to wait weeks for a decent PA trade, that will take alot of time to build up an account. Especially since i can't load up when an A trade occurs since each individual trade outcome is radom and only a group of trades will show if my edge is working.
Some of the best traders in the world don't use fixed percentage risk. They take higher risk based on the probability of the setup. Have a read of The New Market Wizards.
  • #7,794
  • Nov 25, 2007 4:04pm Nov 25, 2007 4:04pm
thoughts on this pin bar gbpjpy daily? i can't tell if it has potential or not.
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  • #7,795
  • Nov 25, 2007 4:34pm Nov 25, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting MattL4417
thoughts on this pin bar gbpjpy daily? i can't tell if it has potential or not.
That's not a good pin. It's more of a neutral bar. The body is a little too far from the top of the range and instead closer to the middle.
  • #7,796
  • Nov 25, 2007 4:38pm Nov 25, 2007 4:38pm
ah ok thank you
  • #7,797
  • Nov 25, 2007 4:49pm Nov 25, 2007 4:49pm
The aud-usd has just gapped above two inside bars. I'm willing to go long at the friday close of .8768. Any thoughts anyone? Thanks. Sebastien
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  • #7,798
  • Nov 26, 2007 10:44am Nov 26, 2007 10:44am
I found confluence in EUR - CHF and Pin Bar. 365 EMA and Trend line
Perfect entry?
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  • #7,799
  • Nov 26, 2007 12:02pm Nov 26, 2007 12:02pm
I think there is a trendline on 4H that you have to consider before taking any long. currently price seems to be ranging around this area.

I'm already in the trade . Because I thought that price broke the trendline sunday night. But unfortunately the current 4h candle is below the trendline. hopefully it can break through again.


Quoting jatis
I found confluence in EUR - CHF and Pin Bar. 365 EMA and Trend line
Perfect entry?
  • #7,800
  • Nov 26, 2007 2:25pm Nov 26, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting james16
thank you, i often wonder how many silent ones are out there. i look at the views on this thread and think it cant be all coming from 30 or 40 people.

I just wanted to thank you Jim from the bottom of my heart for all the most valuable info and trade setups you shared here

And for those silent as me here you can take your number ( 30-40) and multiply by ( I think ) at least 10 times

Thank You!
The risk is what gives value to an investment.
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