End of Carry Trade

...but things can change at any time, why assume that it will carry on as before. IMHO the longer something has been in place the more likely it is to change before some other things.

Keep an eye on 105, as that is where the Bank Of Japan intervened last time.

Will they succeed? Is the Fed finally going to do something to help? We shall see.

It would not surprise me to see a coordinated move on the part of a few central banks relatively soon in more than one pair.

Remember all that "Injected Liquidity" a few weeks ago? As it so happens, something like 5 or 6 Central Banks admit to being involved. However, they all said it "Wasn't planned as such, all acted independently."

Uh-huh. (I am willing to bet that someone out there was stupid enough to believe this too.)

EUR at 150 would certainly draw the interest of several of them, and obvious 105 is something BoJ doesn't want to see.

I do believe this is the death of the carry trade as we knew it. There IS more to forex than that stupid swap, after all. (I believe we are going to see a massive outflow of retail customers based on this alone, as it might actually take work now.)

I can only imagine how those "Freedom Rocks" traders are doing these days. If there are any with their accounts still intact.

None the less, we don't care either way, as there is always opportunity out there, even if it doesn't involve the Yen.

My broker doesn't have the Swedish Krone available, so I don't know how that is doing as far as the carry trade......but again, I don't care...it all becomes dollars eventually. (For me at least.)

Happy hunting.

Clockwork

Ok, there are some backing a short to ~101. Certainly the BoJ might not like the Yen to be too strong, but there are a couple of things working against them.

1) China is swapping USD for Yen. That is a shed-load of dollars that the BoJ will have to buy to keep their currency favorably priced.

2) the local Japanese economy is slowly picking up. As their rates start to rise the attraction to carry traders will wane and that will precipitate a massive un-winding.

Sure , this is true but only for people who are ready to stand aside and observe but we are not talking about such people , right?

so I presonally am talking about how to trade now and in in the very next future and taking long positions with JPY on any pairs except USD/JPY would be pure gambling

carry trade are not dead yet...but it was in downtrend since feb 2007...ex:in case of carry trade turn up due to relative calm on market...you may not see g/j over 232.50! before next big drop!also if japan sink into pacific due to earthquake somewhere around 2012 ..it could easy reatch 350!but it also can goes to 150 if the next big one happening in california.