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The System (Irony included)

  • #741
  • Nov 21, 2007 3:08am Nov 21, 2007 3:08am
Remember i told u if price went thru monthly pivot and candle closed under monthly pivot i would go short. So this is how my trade turned out. My 1st profit target got hit.
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  • #742
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:28am Nov 21, 2007 5:28am
Even though i am not a big fan of trendlines (due to their subjectivity) we can see that the price has respected this trend line for now.

So if the trendline hold then that would give us an excellent long oppertunity
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  • #743
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:32am Nov 21, 2007 5:32am
Quoting Mr Trend
Feb / OND... thought you guys might like this setup on gold futures...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=64
Thanks for bringing that Up. I have many bets on gold and I have to agree with you is screaming "buy" at the top of it's lungs. Gold has been a preferred paradise to park cash . I have a funny feeling we might top 1k on gold. Volume has been really high.

Peace
Peace
  • #744
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:34am Nov 21, 2007 5:34am
Even though this is a riskier trade i still decided not to ignore the pin bar followed by v-formation. So let's see how this plays out. I will aim for take profit around 2.0585 and then 2.0598 and lastly 2.0620.
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  • #745
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:35am Nov 21, 2007 5:35am
Quoting Four Kids
Hi all. feb this is a fantastic and truely enlightening thread.

I have taken 3 trades as per my understanding of what you are teaching us.

On the retrace of the third candle of the V formation (Mon 19th) I went long EA at 1.6438 same for EN at 1.9300 and GU (Tue 20th) at 2.0612. Currently up over 600 pips.

feb I would like to thank you for showing me the way. In the last year I have lost a lot of money in fx. I have now removed all the bs from my charts, and feel a lot better for it. If I have made a mistake in the above trades, please let me know.Thanks.
No problem my friend. Welcome to the club!!!!! just don't hesitate to ask if you have a question. We're here to help. Feel at home!!!

Peace
Peace
  • #746
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:39am Nov 21, 2007 5:39am
Guys

as this morning - 11/21/2007 E/U has broke down 1.48 actually as I'm writing is 1.4780.

Let's see what happens


This is turkey snoozeweek for the market so we could expect some laziness ahead. Anyway we must be attentive just in case.

Peace
Peace
  • #747
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:49am Nov 21, 2007 5:49am
Ok first profit target hit. So i closed on third of my trade. Now i am letting the other 2 thirds run to the next two profit targets
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  • #748
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:52am Nov 21, 2007 5:52am
And in quick time profit target 2 was hit

I love it when a plan comes together.....lol
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  • #749
  • Nov 21, 2007 8:33am Nov 21, 2007 8:33am
Hi Feb, do you know why people clap their hand at the opening bell in the Usa? I have googled it, asked around... not precise answer, few jokes around it and that's it.
  • #750
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:40am Nov 21, 2007 11:40am
Quoting Green_David
Welcome, friend OND. Your descriptions on your E/J trades and false break-out are great!


By the way, how do you deal with false break-outs? In your E/J trade, the S/L is more than 1%, I assume the leverage you used is less than 10 times?

Thank you very much.
Hello Green David - thanks for the welcome

I'm not sure what you are asking regarding my S/L being more than 1% - more than 1% of what? The risk model I apply means that I'm never risking more than around 0.6% of my trading capital.

As for how I deal with false breakouts, I tend to avoid trading breakouts in the main. Of course, there are always occasions where a breakout interests me (based on the preceding market structure) but I would usually wait on the retracement before getting in. Sure, sometimes there is no retracement and it just keeps going but I'm happy to let those ones go rather than chasing the market.

Hope that helps clarify things but let me know if not and I'll try to explain further

O N D
  • #751
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:41am Nov 21, 2007 11:41am
Quoting Mr Trend
Feb / OND... thought you guys might like this setup on gold futures...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=64
Thanks Mr Trend - I was away from my office today but a formation like that certainly makes me pay attention
  • #752
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:47am Nov 21, 2007 11:47am
Quoting Old_Not_Dead

As for E/U - we really are sailing in uncharted waters now aren't we? I'm still not tempted to do anything as there is no value there right now. My best guess would be that a new base is built around 4770-4790 and that we see a retracement to that level before the next move shows itself.

Unfortunately I'm out on an excursion tomorrow and won't be taking my laptop. It'll be interesting to see what the picture looks like when I return home though.

I have a feeling that we're heading into a Thanksgiving snoozefest and I'll probably not be tempted by much until next week now.
Looks like the level I mentioned was tested again today and held. Still not tempted to do anything on this pair for now though.
  • #753
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:57am Nov 21, 2007 11:57am
Just back from a day away from my screen and thought I'd post some up to date charts with a few brief thoughts to keep the discussion going whilst all you Americans gear up for a turkey feast

First attachment is the weekly Cable chart and it demonstrates why I'm steering clear of going long this pair at present, despite the long established up trend.

It's a damn ugly candle for Cable bulls and the subsequent candles haven't made it look any prettier!
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  • #754
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:04pm Nov 21, 2007 12:04pm
This isn't the most thrilling of pairs but the market action recently has interested me. I'm alert to where price is now sitting as a potential base will be formed here for another crack at staying above 1.6800. Alternative scenario is a breakdown, which could be fast and hard. Either way, it's worth keeping an eye on over the next 1 or 2 weeks with good potential volatility.
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  • #755
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:11pm Nov 21, 2007 12:11pm
Finally for now, another weekly chart. Just like the Cable example I posted, there's a candle that screams out "we're heading down" and this is further strengthened by the fact that the July high and lower November high suggest a change in direction.

I'm sitting on my hands to see where this one goes but I am prepared to get very bearish on this pair if the structure continues to develop as I anticipate.
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  • #756
  • Nov 21, 2007 1:42pm Nov 21, 2007 1:42pm
Quoting Old_Not_Dead
Just back from a day away from my screen and thought I'd post some up to date charts with a few brief thoughts to keep the discussion going whilst all you Americans gear up for a turkey feast

First attachment is the weekly Cable chart and it demonstrates why I'm steering clear of going long this pair at present, despite the long established up trend.

It's a damn ugly candle for Cable bulls and the subsequent candles haven't made it look any prettier!
Interesting interpretation of the gbp/usd. But that is the beauty of the chart reading i suppose

As you know i have read the charts totally different.

Scenario 1:
I see firstly a possible break of the upper channel. If it breaks and hold then we have lots of pips to play with to the upside.

Scenario 2:
However if we break the bottom of the channel and it holds then we can actually see gbp/usd go down to 1.9900-1.9700 level again.

But let's see which scenario plays out first.
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  • #757
  • Nov 21, 2007 1:59pm Nov 21, 2007 1:59pm
There was some serious money to be made today with v-formations.

Look at gbp/jpy that almost gave 600 pips.

Usd/jpy gave 100something pips.

Aud/usd almost 100something pips.

Usd/cad almost 100 pips.

Hope everyone saw those signals and made good money today
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  • #758
  • Nov 21, 2007 2:01pm Nov 21, 2007 2:01pm
Oops last chart
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  • #759
  • Nov 21, 2007 2:49pm Nov 21, 2007 2:49pm
Quoting iandekoker
There was some serious money to be made today with v-formations.

Look at gbp/jpy that almost gave 600 pips.

Usd/jpy gave 100something pips.

Aud/usd almost 100something pips.

Usd/cad almost 100 pips.

Hope everyone saw those signals and made good money today
Depends. If you follow the way feb would trade, you would've had some losses, because, as I understand it, (let's assume a downtrend) you get a up bar, then you get a bar breaking that high, THEN, you enter off the break of that... which means you've missed most of the move.

That's why I enter as soon as I get an engulfing bar, or I see a pinbar break. Just seems easier than having to figure out some sort of "V" formation and all that. BEOBs, BUOBs, PBs, etc., just seem easier to me.

I could be drinking too much already today though, so who knows...
Mr. Trend
  • #760
  • Nov 21, 2007 2:50pm Nov 21, 2007 2:50pm
Good Jon Iandekoker

I am really impressed

It's unbelievable how the markets respects pivots.

Keep the good work!!!!!

Peace
Peace
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