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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,661
  • Edited 9:10am Nov 21, 2007 9:07am | Edited 9:10am
I was looking to enter a sell on the usd/chf using the 1 hour chart. On my chart there was a TC signal, but with a large bar. I should've used Phil's multiple entry technique, but instead was trying for 50% of the big bar @ 1.1048. I never got filled, but if I would've my first target was 1.1010, and the second target would've been trailing the 21 mov avg. My SL was set at 1.1070. Also, I would've moved to breakeven when the price tested the last downmove @ 1.1022. That was my plan if I got filled. It doesn't mean much now that I didn't get filled, but thought I'd share.
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  • #8,662
  • Edited 9:30am Nov 21, 2007 9:10am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hello Everyone,

First off, thanks to the lovely purple Foricks, InForTheHaul (great name BTW!), and Palmer for your welcomes. I'd also like to say thanks to Palmer for the massive contribution he has made to my learning curve in forex! Have a great holiday and enjoy some well-earned time-off!

Well, I traded a short on cable this morning, as I saw a lovely doji-flavoured round top on the 4hr, coupled with mahoosive MACD divergence on the 1 hr, plus the fact that the 200 had been passed without a retracement on the 4hr, and the 89 had not yet been re-tested on the 1 hr. All good signs I reckoned.

Attachment

Stop loss was a little tricky, but I decided on just beyond the 2.0700 at 2.0712 (it often nips across a 00 to 10). This was a big 71 pips so I reduced my stake size to fit with a 3% capital risk. Less profit available but lesser risk is far more important to me.

Result = 43 pips in the bag, very nice, but not a good trade decision in the long run.

Why? I already knew that the price was most likely going to re-test the 200 and the 21, converged together at an important S/R line, but I bottled it at the predictable falter at 2.0600.

Now I know that 43 pips is fantastic, and I'm really not being greedy, but I failed to execute the plan that I had. There was nothing wrong with it, but fear got a hold of me. If I had brought my stop loss closer to lock in some profit that would surely have been the more sensible thing to do.

The guys who traded the EurJpy (? I think that was it) also spoke of stop loss management. It is so important and I forgot about how to use it when it mattered! Yep, lesson learned again! Please don't think I'm greedy, I love the 43 pips, but I failed to trust my own plan!

I'm not going to chase any trades however, I shall go and leave it all alone until I'm less frustrated with myself!

Rebecca,x.
Well done. I like the way you analise the market. Emotions takes time to settle when trading live. It will come. I like it that you are not satisfied for not following your plan. Even that comes with time. One must just be honest and know when is it fear and when is it that still voice on the inside that does not like what is going on on the screen. Premature closure can be correct and wrong depending on the conditions.
Good pipping
Phillip
  • #8,663
  • Nov 21, 2007 9:24am Nov 21, 2007 9:24am
If anyone follows the eur/jpy, it is making a nice 30 min. bounce to the 21 with a potential tc signal coming up. The chart is from interbank... central us timezone.
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  • #8,664
  • Edited 10:09am Nov 21, 2007 9:39am | Edited 10:09am
shorted 1 part @ 160.85
Stop loss @ 160.35
T1 @160.55
T2 @ 160.10 *if I get filled on another part


*I'll add another part if it trades up to 161.00

9:58 a.m. central us time .... EUR/JPY traded down to 160.65 ... moved stop loss to BE. Might be a little too close though.

10:09 a.m. BE stop hit
  • #8,665
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:45am Nov 21, 2007 11:45am
Hey guys, what do you think about the U/J right now? I see its resting at a monthly trendline from 1995 that have been touched for the third time today. The daily R3 is also at the same level and the last nine 1hour bars has bounced of that strong support...
A RB is forming, possible long signal soon...

Will wait for the MACD to confirm
  • #8,666
  • Nov 21, 2007 11:54am Nov 21, 2007 11:54am
Quoting ekling
Hey guys, what do you think about the U/J right now? I see its resting at a monthly trendline from 1995 that have been touched for the third time today. The daily R3 is also at the same level and the last nine 1hour bars has bounced of that strong support...
A RB is forming, possible long signal soon...

Will wait for the MACD to confirm

Great call on the Monthly trendline. I did not even notice due to not following this pair closely.

With the markets closing for the Holiday in 4 hours, is this a wait until after Thanksgiving?

Is the US market open Friday?
  • #8,667
  • Nov 21, 2007 12:13pm Nov 21, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting ekling
Hey guys, what do you think about the U/J right now? I see its resting at a monthly trendline from 1995 that have been touched for the third time today. The daily R3 is also at the same level and the last nine 1hour bars has bounced of that strong support...
A RB is forming, possible long signal soon...

Will wait for the MACD to confirm
yes, noticed that as well. On my 4 hour this TL is at 108.33, however, when I switch to the 1 hour, it shows up at 108.19. Odd. I have mine drawn through the bottom of the tails in Apr '95 and Jan '05. Note demo-ing this pair, but looks like some at least intermediate support. Strong Bear market since mid year 2007....

I believe the US markets is open on Friday, but not tomorrow.
  • #8,668
  • Nov 21, 2007 1:06pm Nov 21, 2007 1:06pm
Round bottom did not form on the 4 hour USDJPY, darn.

It might form on the next 4 hour bar, but that will be heading into the close of the US markets.

Decisions, decisions.
  • #8,669
  • Nov 21, 2007 3:19pm Nov 21, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Round bottom did not form on the 4 hour USDJPY, darn.

It might form on the next 4 hour bar, but that will be heading into the close of the US markets.

Decisions, decisions.
Noticed it went up and bounced off the 21ema. I would expect "the market makers" to be able to push it around with the light volume. I suspect it will test the lows to take out those stops, so maybe you'll get your chance after all!!! Have a great Thanksgiving...

Eric
  • #8,670
  • Nov 21, 2007 3:26pm Nov 21, 2007 3:26pm
Quoting EricthePip
Noticed it went up and bounced off the 21ema. I would expect "the market makers" to be able to push it around with the light volume. I suspect it will test the lows to take out those stops, so maybe you'll get your chance after all!!! Have a great Thanksgiving...

Eric
Hehe, we shall see.

I was thinking about scalping the EURJPY tonight for some quick short pips.

I am wondering if the USDJPY will be dead due to Thanksgiving.
  • #8,671
  • Nov 21, 2007 4:00pm Nov 21, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Hehe, we shall see.

I was thinking about scalping the EURJPY tonight for some quick short pips.

I am wondering if the USDJPY will be dead due to Thanksgiving.
I suspect they will both be light volume. Not sure when the Japanese markets close, but they also celebrate Labor Thanksgiving in Japan. My companies offices are closed (in Japan) both Thurs and Friday.... And their FX market is closed Thursday

All Day JPY http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif Holiday: Labor Thanksgiving Day
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif
I was surprised how well the yen pairs held up given the late afternoon selling in the US equity markets.. Been fairly well correlated lately... Good luck
  • #8,672
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:36am Nov 22, 2007 1:36am
Swissy

Correction: My 1st TP was hit on the 14:00 candle and not the 16:00 as on the image.

Regards
Werner
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Phil419
  • #8,673
  • Nov 22, 2007 5:05pm Nov 22, 2007 5:05pm
Phil great system, great effort, really well done you're a true giver! God bless.


I downloaded meta trader but I could only use Apari data is that ok? Can I change to MIT?

Not sure on the differences but I noticed my MACD pattern on the cable looked different to Bag Girls chart.

cheers.
  • #8,674
  • Nov 22, 2007 5:49pm Nov 22, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Phil great system, great effort, really well done you're a true giver! God bless.


I downloaded meta trader but I could only use Apari data is that ok? Can I change to MIT?

Not sure on the differences but I noticed my MACD pattern on the cable looked different to Bag Girls chart.

cheers.
Hi.
The 4 hour charts are different according to broker's time zone location try to find one that works to you, don't forget that: "the trader is more important than his charts".
P.D hillip's charts are GTM+2
Have nice pips.
  • #8,675
  • Nov 22, 2007 6:10pm Nov 22, 2007 6:10pm
Hi everyone, I'm new to forex. I started demo trading and had tried all sorts of methods and techniques such as scalping and EA etc but to no avail (all incurred losses). It was only until i spotted this thread and read up on the guide posted by Phil that i managed to make positive pips. I have made around 1000pips (demo) in these 2 weeks by shorting the gbpjpy, usdjpy,audusd using 4hrs macd. Thank you phil.
  • #8,676
  • Nov 22, 2007 6:19pm Nov 22, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting mkain
Hi.
The 4 hour charts are different according to broker's time zone location try to find one that works to you, don't forget that: "the trader is more important than his charts".
P.D hillip's charts are GTM+2
Have nice pips.
Thanks Mkain.

I am in Australia so maybe that's what was assigned to me.

One point though if the market is 24 hour and the data is the same as it comes from the same 24 hour market. why would time zone make it different?

Cheers.
  • #8,677
  • Nov 22, 2007 10:02pm Nov 22, 2007 10:02pm
Apocalypto
the 4hr bars close at different times for different brokers...not to worry though just stick to your broker, should be fine, u can also try different brokers demos to compare....this was talked about earlier in the thread, not sure where, hope this helped..
regards
  • #8,678
  • Nov 23, 2007 1:26am Nov 23, 2007 1:26am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Thanks Mkain.

I am in Australia so maybe that's what was assigned to me.

One point though if the market is 24 hour and the data is the same as it comes from the same 24 hour market. why would time zone make it different?

Cheers.
I realized the candles in 4 hour charts close/open at 01:00,05:00,9:00,13:00,17:00 and 21:00 broker's time.
The candles and the signals can be different but if you work with Phillip's market rhythm don't worry about that.
Have nice pips.
  • #8,679
  • Nov 23, 2007 2:06am Nov 23, 2007 2:06am
Hi every1

i was started to read this whole thread back in march and i liked it.At that time i decided that longer term trading is not for me i 'd rather scalp.After few months of scalping i did fine but somehow i realised that if i wanna make really big pips,long term the way that is.So i started to read it again.Now my only "fear" of long term trading is news time! I always have this phobia since i lost a lot of money on NFP (i trade mostly eu/usd) couple of years ago.I am asking anyone whom using this system or trading long term how to over come this? i mean nobody knows what would be the out come of the news (big ones)it could shift the whole market in the opposit direction.Now if i am in the trade should i just close my position even its not in too much profit (even worse its a loss)?i never traded long terms but need some encouragement from traders using this system.thanks anyone who cares to reply.good trading
  • #8,680
  • Nov 23, 2007 4:55am Nov 23, 2007 4:55am
HI
I see a higher MACD low in USDJPY
is it worth to go long in such a strong downtrend?

Till
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