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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,641
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:51pm Nov 20, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting ekling
There is a TC on the U/J right now, new 4 hour candle 3 minutes ago

Please review my trade.

I entered the usd/jpy based on the rules.
1. went back to the 21 then started to move away
2. currency is below the 89 indicating a berish mood.
3. MACD gave tc pattern (red)
4. several candles before showed resistance around the 21(emotion)

Entered at 109.92
1st target 109.62 +30 took 50% profit moved 2nd 50% to be
will try to catch a bigger run on 2nd 50%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #8,642
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:00pm Nov 20, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting JimTatum
Please review my trade.

I entered the usd/jpy based on the rules.
1. went back to the 21 then started to move away
2. currency is below the 89 indicating a berish mood.
3. MACD gave tc pattern (red)
4. several candles before showed resistance around the 21(emotion)

Entered at 109.92
1st target 109.62 +30 took 50% profit moved 2nd 50% to be
will try to catch a bigger run on 2nd 50%
Exactly as I did it. I just had my second lot on 30 trailing stop and it was taken out at 109.80.
Motion is very uneven at moment. Will stay out till tommorrow
  • #8,643
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:38pm Nov 20, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Exactly as I did it. I just had my second lot on 30 trailing stop and it was taken out at 109.80.
Motion is very uneven at moment. Will stay out till tommorrow
Phil, if you have time, could you elaborate on "Motion is very UNEVEN"?? To me (novice) looks like a well behaved decline (at least on the 4H).

Thanks,
Eric
  • #8,644
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:57pm Nov 20, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting Bag Lady

Someone, I think it may have been Pips, or maybe Nadia, once made a brilliant analogy of the way Price interacts with the MA's; how the different MA's travel at different speeds and how it is like a car journey where it's a mad dash, or as it slows down you stop more often to look at the view, perhaps have time for a picnic. That analogy really helped me with the MA's, so I hope that mine might help a little with the timeframes.

Rebecca,x.
Hey Rebecca,
That analogy was done by PipsforUandme when she replied to iPip. I also thought it was a brilliant post, it was at post 8149

Welcome aboard
  • #8,645
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:30pm Nov 20, 2007 4:30pm
Nice to see everyone making some money. Keep up the good work. I am off this week
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #8,646
  • Edited 6:01pm Nov 20, 2007 4:48pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi EricthePip,

That's a brilliant new channel, perfect fit! Let's see where we go from here.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and all US people; I know it's not 'til Thursday but I imagine a lot of people will be taking a few days? Palmer mentioned earlier that the charts were slow, do we anticipate action to be London and Asia-based this week? I'm afraid I'm rather ignorant of Thanksgiving Holidays, as it's just another wet, grey week here in Scotland! All we know of Thanksgiving is what we see in Movies!!

Rebecca,x.
Welcome Bag Lady, I can already tell that you will be a wonderful addition to our family. Good analogies, parables, good analysis...
I am jealous that you have chosen the Pound as your pair of choice...I am a loonie and euro trader. You are wise to learn one pair and learn it well. I wish you the best in your future with this forum.
To answer your question, volumes (ATR) may be down on Thursday and Friday for USD pairs. We Americans will be at home watching football and eating turkey in our Pilgrim hats (like you've seen in the movies.

...and thank you for not judging me because I am purple.
Frick
  • #8,647
  • Nov 20, 2007 7:10pm Nov 20, 2007 7:10pm
Hey folks....

Charts may be thinning out for the rest of the week with the US holiday and I plan on taking a little siesta from the charts for a few days. There still may be a pip or two for the taking so ya never know. My time here for the next several days may be limited as well but I'll be back in full force next week. I have a few major meetings to prepare for in the next few months and I hate to say it but that's got priority. I'll be here as much as I can though....

Peace to everyone and trade well...

On a side note:

Phillip's 4 Hour Strategy is off to the US Copyright Office as we speak. The purpose of this is for Phillip's 'author protection' so this never shows up as an e-book by someone else trying to sell it for $99.99. This process takes several months but either way it's in the works.

ooh EURJPY looks weak...gotta go make some Turkey pips....
  • #8,648
  • Nov 20, 2007 7:44pm Nov 20, 2007 7:44pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey folks....

On a side note:

Phillip's 4 Hour Strategy is off to the US Copyright Office as we speak. The purpose of this is for Phillip's 'author protection' so this never shows up as an e-book by someone else trying to sell it for $99.99. This process takes several months but either way it's in the works.
....
Thanks for looking out for Phillip's best interest on this, Palmer. He deserves all of everything good for what he has given to us. Like the new name, too. Better than my suggestion of "the 4H Club" I think that might be taken already. Have a great Turkey Day, I will try to stay on topic in future comments, but needed a little Pip Humor to start my holiday week.
  • #8,649
  • Nov 20, 2007 7:56pm Nov 20, 2007 7:56pm
Im curious, as I dont use the 21 EMA at all, but what time frame is it best used for? 4 hour?
Jeff
Quoting unlv_tj
I can't believe in the last 2 days I have missed easy trades on the USDCAD bouncing off the 21 EMA.

  • #8,650
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:45pm Nov 20, 2007 10:45pm
Quoting jeffmelvin
Im curious, as I dont use the 21 EMA at all, but what time frame is it best used for? 4 hour?
Jeff
I am just following Phillips method of the 21 EMA on the 4 hour charts.
  • #8,651
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:54pm Nov 20, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey folks....

Charts may be thinning out for the rest of the week with the US holiday and I plan on taking a little siesta from the charts for a few days. There still may be a pip or two for the taking so ya never know. My time here for the next several days may be limited as well but I'll be back in full force next week. I have a few major meetings to prepare for in the next few months and I hate to say it but that's got priority. I'll be here as much as I can though....

Peace to everyone and trade well...

On a side note:

Phillip's 4 Hour Strategy is off to the US Copyright Office as we speak. The purpose of this is for Phillip's 'author protection' so this never shows up as an e-book by someone else trying to sell it for $99.99. This process takes several months but either way it's in the works.

ooh EURJPY looks weak...gotta go make some Turkey pips....
I shorted the EURJPY (I don't know this pair, so I followed it closely). I got up 20 pips, moved my stop loss to 10 pips of profit, and then had to leave.

Came back to find I got stopped out with 10 pips of profit. I should have had more faith in Phillips system, even in a pair I don't know.
  • #8,652
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:08pm Nov 20, 2007 11:08pm
In my opinion you set your stop too close. When your up 20 pips from your entry move to breakeven if you only have one lot. Congrats on a few pips though.
  • #8,653
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:18pm Nov 20, 2007 11:18pm
Quoting trader_scott
In my opinion you set your stop too close. When your up 20 pips from your entry move to breakeven if you only have one lot. Congrats on a few pips though.
Yes, I am watching the EURJPY as it is still going down, UGH.

But, I wanted to lock in 10 pips since I would not be around to watch it close enough.

Bad move, but I will live and learn.
  • #8,654
  • Nov 21, 2007 4:08am Nov 21, 2007 4:08am
My trade


1H entry order placed on USDCHF
Entry 1.1055
1sTP 1.1028
SL 1.1082

Comments please

Regards
Werner
Phil419
  • #8,655
  • Nov 21, 2007 4:25am Nov 21, 2007 4:25am
Hello Everyone,

First off, thanks to the lovely purple Foricks, InForTheHaul (great name BTW!), and Palmer for your welcomes. I'd also like to say thanks to Palmer for the massive contribution he has made to my learning curve in forex! Have a great holiday and enjoy some well-earned time-off!

Well, I traded a short on cable this morning, as I saw a lovely doji-flavoured round top on the 4hr, coupled with mahoosive MACD divergence on the 1 hr, plus the fact that the 200 had been passed without a retracement on the 4hr, and the 89 had not yet been re-tested on the 1 hr. All good signs I reckoned.

Attached Image


Stop loss was a little tricky, but I decided on just beyond the 2.0700 at 2.0712 (it often nips across a 00 to 10). This was a big 71 pips so I reduced my stake size to fit with a 3% capital risk. Less profit available but lesser risk is far more important to me.

Result = 43 pips in the bag, very nice, but not a good trade decision in the long run.

Why? I already knew that the price was most likely going to re-test the 200 and the 21, converged together at an important S/R line, but I bottled it at the predictable falter at 2.0600.

Now I know that 43 pips is fantastic, and I'm really not being greedy, but I failed to execute the plan that I had. There was nothing wrong with it, but fear got a hold of me. If I had brought my stop loss closer to lock in some profit that would surely have been the more sensible thing to do.

The guys who traded the EurJpy (? I think that was it) also spoke of stop loss management. It is so important and I forgot about how to use it when it mattered! Yep, lesson learned again! Please don't think I'm greedy, I love the 43 pips, but I failed to trust my own plan!

I'm not going to chase any trades however, I shall go and leave it all alone until I'm less frustrated with myself!

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #8,656
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:02am Nov 21, 2007 5:02am
For me the movement on both was to much to get involve
  • #8,657
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:25am Nov 21, 2007 5:25am
Bag Lady is another one for us all! I am really enjoying the way you anaylse market. Good. I hope one day I will be able to contribute to this forum.

I took this using 1 hr. The price I has tested 89.

Buy at 2.0536
Take profit 2.575 (Retracement to 21 on 4 hr.
stop loss @ 2.0498

I will watch closely

Pls. I need comment from the forum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 25 KB
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #8,658
  • Nov 21, 2007 5:33am Nov 21, 2007 5:33am
I have closed manually @ 2.0570

Fear of my TP not reached. Also fear of CT and we are in Strong Bearish.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #8,659
  • Nov 21, 2007 7:26am Nov 21, 2007 7:26am
Quoting ejiexe
I have closed manually @ 2.0570

Fear of my TP not reached. Also fear of CT and we are in Strong Bearish.
Hi ejiexe,

Well done on your 30+ pips!!

The 1hr did show a nice tweezer bottom at 11:00am and the bounce off the 89. Bravely done! As Phillip has said before, don't lose your profit for the sake of a few pips, so if you were worried about not quite hitting the target on a CT trade, 30+ pips in the bag is plenty good enough to be happy with!

How do your plans fit in to the 4hr strategy? Were you looking for a trade and happened to spot one, or do you scalp lower timeframes while waiting for the 4hr to develop? I'm not quite brave enough to do CT not fully supported by the 4hr, although, as you say, a retracement to the 21 on the 4hr was not unexpected.

I'm still not looking at the charts, still feel a wee bit frustrated with myself (I hope that's not reflected in the tone of this reply? I'm fully supportive of you ejiexe, my fellow cable buddy!)

Rebecca,x.

p.s. Just had a thought! What time zone are you in? Does your 4hr candle open before mine? I'm on GMT, so my 4hr chart still had 1hr to go when you entered your trade.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #8,660
  • Edited 2:12pm Nov 21, 2007 8:48am | Edited 2:12pm
Hi guys,

Here's an update of my Swissy trade. Since the post my 1st profit target was hit (+20 pips in the bank). Second SL moved to BE.

Notes on the chart.

EDIT: Both lots closed for a total of 44 pip profit.

Regards
Werner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: l-uc-1h.gif Size: 35 KB
Phil419
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