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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #8,141
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:23pm Nov 18, 2007 5:23pm
Expecting a small move down to test the 2.0503 level before it's upward move to the projected 2.0658.

I am making no trades until there is at least 2 markets online, that would be the ASIA market and London Market later on.

For now, I am just analyzing the few pairs I trade, trying to be patient for specific points be be reached.

Will chat again before Frankfurt open in about 6 hours or so.

Ken
  • #8,142
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:16pm Nov 18, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting monarch
Expecting a small move down to test the 2.0503 level before it's upward move to the projected 2.0658.

I am making no trades until there is at least 2 markets online, that would be the ASIA market and London Market later on.

For now, I am just analyzing the few pairs I trade, trying to be patient for specific points be be reached.

Will chat again before Frankfurt open in about 6 hours or so.

Ken
I'm having a problem finding the analysis that has that projection level? i am looking at your last chart with fibo's...
  • #8,143
  • Edited 6:29pm Nov 18, 2007 6:18pm | Edited 6:29pm
Based on last weeks Hourly and 4 hour charts these are the following support lines that were established:

(please remember that I break down every fibo cylce till it has completed and there were 3 fib cycles from this move down in which were in the final one now, then I return back to the overall big fib cycle with the extreme high/low in the move)

2.0525 upper support
2.0503 median support
2.0352 lower support

Retrace level up from those support lines.

upper support @ 2.0525 50% retrace up to 2.0843
median support @ 2.0503 38.2% retrace up to 2.0618
lower support @ 2.0352 76.4% retrace so far up to 2.0550

Overall Fibo Cycle is as follows:
High 2.116
Low 2.0352
Retrace Levels:
23.6% at 2.0543 (Completed Friday)
38.2 % at 2.0661 (Projected Retrace Target)
50% 2.0756

GU favors the 50 % level of retracement usually, but with a Fibo Expansion I have the move going upwards to reach the 38.2 and target area of 2.0655/2.0665 that would complete the cycle of the high and low and retrace.

Once the 2.0660 level is reached, then I project a move back to test the low at 2.0352 and the target of 2.0200 and possibly 2.0150 with a spike below.

Not to forget that there is a major lower trend line below around the 2.000/2.100, so we could see this before the end of the week depending on the great Thanksgiving surprises that could spoil it all.

NOTE: From the Market Open move down so far today, we came to a low of 2.0525 which is the upper support level I have.
I was expecting a median support test, but the 4HOUR is showing that a bullish move is in progress to the 2.0660 level as the first target.
  • #8,144
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:45pm Nov 18, 2007 6:45pm
If your interested put a 100 and 200 ema on your chart and see where the Daily Support stopped at, yepper, the 100EMA.

Then look below that point, the 200 EMA is calling for the next support level, which falls right on the lower trend line on the big pic.

Also the 4hour is stalling under the 200EMA, but should press through to go back up to the 100 EMA which is right at my 38.2 retrace at 2.0660 level.

Oh this is getting more exciting every day, enjoy the show as we approach the breaking point of GU since it's bull year.

Just my analysis, I have no trades in now.

Ken
  • #8,145
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:57pm Nov 19, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting fxdoc
Further to my earlier Post #8129

The extended 5th wave turned out to be more complex.
The congestion 2.04 - 2.05 was only the smaller 4th of the 5th wave.
In fact I was surprised to see a terminating diagonal triangle coming to rest at 2.0404 for the bearish scenario - but it turned out to be only the (b).

So in actual fact, the Low for the 5 wave structure is 2.0352 not 2,0404.
No change in principle for the ABC retracement if market remains bearish,
expect an ABC retracement ideally to the previous 4th wave area between 2.0504 - 2.0617 as before.
Ratios are now :
38.2% = 2.0540
50% = 2.0597
61.8% = 2.0656

Why the base at 2.0352 ?
It correspond to 78.6% (few pips) of the previous wave structure (2.1160 to 2.0523).
78.6% is a common ratio found in Cable swings.
0.786 is the square root of 0.618
Looks like a complex B underway then C up, before down.
  • #8,146
  • Nov 19, 2007 3:56pm Nov 19, 2007 3:56pm
This was a very dull day...
  • #8,147
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:19pm Nov 19, 2007 11:19pm
Update to my earlier Post #8145

B in 3 waves appears completed.
target for C 2.0620/2.0666 ?
  • #8,148
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:57pm Nov 19, 2007 11:57pm
Quoting fxdoc
Update to my earlier Post #8145

B in 3 waves appears completed.
target for C 2.0620/2.0666 ?
Thanks for the update, I was lulled asleep by this slow market this week, but who knows, the holiday Thursday in USA just might allow a sneak attack of bull.

So much for turkey, or bear. LOL
  • #8,149
  • Edited 10:54am Nov 20, 2007 10:06am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting monarch
I would like to start this Analysis with a story of Historical reference.

Last year during this time, the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. ..........................

WOW - the market had been on fire, and the Forex Factory was alive, all of the traders were analyzing the GU to death, and coming up with only one solution - THE US MARKET was out to lunch and the BRITS were eating the Turkey.

It was a breakout to remember, one that caught me by surprise ripping my money from my sweaty hands as I was shorting thinking it was just a small spike upwards.

...........................................It is now HIGH TIME we learn from our mistakes, and never again misunderstand the depth of moves that could take place before our eyes.

From that breakout last Thanksgiving at 1.9142, we have long since .................
The question for us all is "Am I a better trader now then one year ago?"

I hope that we have all learned and matured in our trading strategies and behavior habits that seem to get the best of us you face defeat.
I for one have learned a great deal, and it has been more about overcoming my emotions then trying to make a pip, and in 1 years time FOREX has become a fun place to make money, and The Forex Factory a great place to hang out chatting with all the great traders.

Let's finish the year of 2007 with thankfulness.
KEN
Goodness! Ken, I remember last thanksgiving and I wanna start my thanksgiving this year by acknowledging and thankin you first,
others in the world can wait for my thanksgivin
den
  • #8,150
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:48pm Nov 20, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting fxdoc
Update to my earlier Post #8145

B in 3 waves appears completed.
target for C 2.0620/2.0666 ?
If this is a wave C :
Looks like terminating into a diagonal triangle or rising wedge (bearish).
wave C = A (from 2.0352 low)
Close to 61.8% retracement (2.0843 - 2.0352).
  • #8,151
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:51pm Nov 20, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting moneyAA
Goodness! Ken, I remember last thanksgiving and I wanna start my thanksgiving this year by acknowledging and thankin you first,
others in the world can wait for my thanksgivin
den

Thanks, Happy Thanksgiving to you.

No matter the efforts of FOREX, or the show that is about to begin on the GJ/UJ/EJ meltdown (in which I am loading shorts as it retraces) - I am much more prepared to spend family time this year, and will watch and enjoy the market do it's thing, but my priority is Thankgiving.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Ken
  • #8,152
  • Nov 20, 2007 10:35pm Nov 20, 2007 10:35pm
Quoting monarch
Thanks for the update, I was lulled asleep by this slow market this week, but who knows, the holiday Thursday in USA just might allow a sneak attack of bull.

So much for turkey, or bear. LOL
Best & Happy Thanksgiving to you.
  • #8,153
  • Nov 21, 2007 2:46am Nov 21, 2007 2:46am
Quoting fxdoc
If this is a wave C :
Looks like terminating into a diagonal triangle or rising wedge (bearish).
wave C = A (from 2.0352 low)
Close to 61.8% retracement (2.0843 - 2.0352).
OK, bearish diagonal triangle and immediate reaction
so far
  • #8,154
  • Nov 21, 2007 10:29pm Nov 21, 2007 10:29pm
Seems CABLE is going up. It is posible to reach 2.1xxx......
  • #8,155
  • Nov 22, 2007 7:31pm Nov 22, 2007 7:31pm
Cable bearish scenario is dead.......
  • #8,156
  • Nov 23, 2007 6:08am Nov 23, 2007 6:08am
Quoting fxdoc
Cable bearish scenario is dead.......
let dust settle to reassess Monday.
  • #8,157
  • Nov 27, 2007 7:00am Nov 27, 2007 7:00am
what a silence!
prepare your self for the cable falling, but maybe after testing the 2.0850.
and maybe we can see before the end of this year a return to 2.0000.
I am currently out of the market and waiting for the next week to see what happens.
  • #8,158
  • Nov 30, 2007 11:26pm Nov 30, 2007 11:26pm
Just wanted 2 point out the PINBAR on the Monthly 4 those building longterm longs on Cable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly gu.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #8,159
  • Dec 1, 2007 10:05am Dec 1, 2007 10:05am
Quoting forexnovice
Just wanted 2 point out the PINBAR on the Monthly 4 those building longterm longs on Cable.
nice point, very nice point
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #8,160
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:59am Dec 5, 2007 4:59am
Quoting l_khuzaei
what a silence!
prepare your self for the cable falling, but maybe after testing the 2.0850.
and maybe we can see before the end of this year a return to 2.0000.
I am currently out of the market and waiting for the next week to see what happens.

I hope that you enjoyed my advise
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