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The System (Irony included)

  • #701
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:44pm Nov 20, 2007 12:44pm
Quoting Old_Not_Dead
Hi Shreem,

Thanks very much for posting those charts to give visual representation. I'll practice using attachments in due course!

Hey Leigh,

You've made me chuckle a few times already in this thread. Don't change a thing

Yes, in this instance my entry was anticipating the move down rather than waiting on confirmation. Thanks for pointing that out as I should probably clarify the difference. Like everything with price action, when and where to enter cannot follow a set template. For me, it depends greatly on the market structure at that time. On my 4Hr charts the instrument had posted its 3rd lower high, or fractal if you prefer (164.25, 163.75, 163.25). That gave me the signal to wait for the selling pressure to show itself and then get in relatively early.

This anticipation would definitely not apply in all circumstances but the conditions were right.

O N D
Your most welcome sir, most happy to be of any help.

Sincerely

Shreem
  • #702
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:46pm Nov 20, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting Old_Not_Dead
Hello ownshook,

Did you catch the ride up on USDCAD? My entry was in the 9480 area when the strength had confirmed itself (V formation to keep the language in line with the thread) and the journey up was relatively trouble-free.

You are right - it is definitely in "watch closely" mode now though (i'm flat). I actually wouldn't discount further strength from here but the 9885 area is certainly going to be important. There's also a strong risk of a false breakout, with price being carried up past 9900 due to stop clustering before falling back again.

I guess what I'm saying is that anything can happen - not much help huh

I had a look at your euro trade too. Whilst I never advise snatching at profit, I think you are right to be cautious here. A look at the weekly chart says, at face value, everything is fine and the direction is up up up. Drilling down to the daily shows a marginal break of the 9th Nov high and that would put me on alert for a potential breakdown. The 4Hr chart shows a rejection (for now) of the 1.4800 level and the hourly shows price meandering around the current level.

Again, looking at context as a whole, we are less than 30 minutes away from FOMC minutes. Your decision is whether you accept that inherent news risk and keep onboard for the continuation of the uptrend or not. Where is your stop right now?

Thank you for your input Old_Not_Dead and welcome to this thread!

I missed the "V' formation on the CAD however I would not have taken it since it was against the overall downtrend that is going on. My confidence is not quite there to trade against the overall trend. One day.

The euro trade...my stop would usually be below yesterdays daily candle however because of the strength today...I place it at B.E. I think I will ride through the news and if it goes against me...there is always that retrace and entry above the support line if the "V" presents itself. In about 20 minutes...we will know how it turned out.

Thank you again for your input.
  • #703
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:46pm Nov 20, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting leighsww
I have been watching the 4hr this past week while waiting patiently for a bus, lol, but had been committed to sticking to the V-Formation criteria on the Daily, even when I knew I would have been able to take 4hr profits at 50+ pips due to the Fractal formations, lol.
Oh and for those of you thinking, "what a ditz" to not have been taking the profits when seeing it : ... I did so because I am testing this not only for my own benefit, but I am trying to quantify and prove feb's method so that my family, friends, and anybody else out there who NEEDS and can benefit from a mechanical, proven method to help them with getting consistent profitable results from their trading.

I have been fortunate to not have blown up my account yet the 8 months of trading live, but I have read soooo many people having done so over-and-over that I was hoping that feb's method was finally the ONE (and a simple one at that) to prevent that in the future, lol.

So there! :
  • #704
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting feb2865
Excellent post shreem!!!!
Hello Dear Feb2865 and leighsww, your most welcome. If I can help, will do it without thinking. I receive so much from all of you expercienced traders that if I can give back or help with something, will definitely do it.

Sincerely

Shreem
  • #705
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm Nov 20, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting Old_Not_Dead
Hello ownshook,

Did you catch the ride up on USDCAD? My entry was in the 9480 area when the strength had confirmed itself (V formation to keep the language in line with the thread) and the journey up was relatively trouble-free.

You are right - it is definitely in "watch closely" mode now though (i'm flat). I actually wouldn't discount further strength from here but the 9885 area is certainly going to be important. There's also a strong risk of a false breakout, with price being carried up past 9900 due to stop clustering before falling back again.

I guess what I'm saying is that anything can happen - not much help huh






Peace
I had a look at your euro trade too. Whilst I never advise snatching at profit, I think you are right to be cautious here. A look at the weekly chart says, at face value, everything is fine and the direction is up up up. Drilling down to the daily shows a marginal break of the 9th Nov high and that would put me on alert for a potential breakdown. The 4Hr chart shows a rejection (for now) of the 1.4800 level and the hourly shows price meandering around the current level.

Again, looking at context as a whole, we are less than 30 minutes away from FOMC minutes. Your decision is whether you accept that inherent news risk and keep onboard for the continuation of the uptrend or not. Where is your stop right now?
Do you anything in mind in case Loonie reaches back to parity ($1)??

I like what I see in this pair so far!!
Peace
  • #706
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:50pm Nov 20, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting melpheos
Not to be sarcastic but hey you've just discovered support and resistance :-p
CAN ANYONE PLS EXPLAIN TO ME HOW TO START MY OWN THREAD? I REALLY WANT TO DEVOTE THE LAST PART OF THIS YEAR TO BE FULLY ACTIVE IN THE FORUM AND I THINK I HAVE SOME STRATS THAT WILL BE OF HELP TO ALL OF US.I WILL BE MOST GLAD IF SOMEONE CAN PLS SHOW ME HW TO START MY THREAD. THANK YOU IN ADVANCE.
  • #707
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:51pm Nov 20, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting ownshook
Thank you for your input Old_Not_Dead and welcome to this thread!

I missed the "V' formation on the CAD however I would not have taken it since it was against the overall downtrend that is going on. My confidence is not quite there to trade against the overall trend. One day.

The euro trade...my stop would usually be below yesterdays daily candle however because of the strength today...I place it at B.E. I think I will ride through the news and if it goes against me...there is always that retrace and entry above the support line if the "V" presents itself. In about 20 minutes...we will know how it turned out.

Thank you again for your input.
You're quite right about the CAD trade being counter-trend and there is great sense in sticking with the dominant trend initially. Apologies, I got ahead of myself and don't want any inexperienced onlookers to start getting gung-ho too quickly

If I was in your euro trade and was going to ride out the news, I'd have my stop around 1.4620 anyway so I think your B/E point is sensible.
  • #708
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:54pm Nov 20, 2007 12:54pm
oh my mistake!!!

I didn't see the whole picture.


This pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time.
there's a resistance around 1.08.

I'll keep an eye on that pair

Peace
Peace
  • #709
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:56pm Nov 20, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting hefhem911
CAN ANYONE PLS EXPLAIN TO ME HOW TO START MY OWN THREAD? I REALLY WANT TO DEVOTE THE LAST PART OF THIS YEAR TO BE FULLY ACTIVE IN THE FORUM AND I THINK I HAVE SOME STRATS THAT WILL BE OF HELP TO ALL OF US.I WILL BE MOST GLAD IF SOMEONE CAN PLS SHOW ME HW TO START MY THREAD. THANK YOU IN ADVANCE.
Go back to the main Trading Systems forum --> http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71

Then, click on "Post New Thread" (it's right under the index tree in the upper left corner above the title "Threads in Forum")

* edited - Also, try not to post with all CAPS, lol. People will interpret that as shouting, lol. You may get some scolding you for it, so just needed to warn you

Also, no need to post a thank you, just go do it and much success to you and your thread!

Dang, I edit too much!
  • #710
  • Nov 20, 2007 12:57pm Nov 20, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting feb2865
Do you anything in mind in case Loonie reaches back to parity ($1)??

I like what I see in this pair so far!!
Feb,

My gut feeling is an oil retreat and the subsequent end of the "free money" available for shorting USDCAD. 1.0330 and then 1.0870 would be initial areas of interest but I don't think it's crazy to imagine we could see 20% appreciation in this pair over the next year.

My caveat would be to state the obvious - there are a lot of barriers in the way of a sustained reversal in the shape of failed support areas. However, even the monthly chart is looking like posting a key reversal bar for November.
  • #711
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:08pm Nov 20, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting Old_Not_Dead
Feb,

My gut feeling is an oil retreat and the subsequent end of the "free money" available for shorting USDCAD. 1.0330 and then 1.0870 would be initial areas of interest but I don't think it's crazy to imagine we could see 20% appreciation in this pair over the next year.

My caveat would be to state the obvious - there are a lot of barriers in the way of a sustained reversal in the shape of failed support areas. However, even the monthly chart is looking like posting a key reversal bar for November.
Thanks. Is that I didn't look at the whole picture. I got your point on the free money as some people I know have been shorting this pair to death.

I was making sure (something you just confirmed now) as I see some reversal on the way.

peace
Peace
  • #712
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:31pm Nov 20, 2007 1:31pm
in the attached chart would this be considered a fractal??? because there is only one bearish bar then the bullish bars continue, should there be a minimum amount of retracement bars to look for before the main trend continues??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.JPG Size: 55 KB
  • #713
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:43pm Nov 20, 2007 1:43pm
Quoting no0odle
in the attached chart would this be considered a fractal??? because there is only one bearish bar then the bullish bars continue, should there be a minimum amount of retracement bars to look for before the main trend continues??
Yes.

My entry would have been on the bearish candle, but as you see didn't break the higher/high so I'll sit on my hands waiting for the next candle. In this particular case the next one broke the pattern so it was good.

As for minimum amount for retracement, if I see one (like the one you're showing) it's ok. As for two, I will be cautious. Probably won't take it.

Peace
Peace
  • #714
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:52pm Nov 20, 2007 1:52pm
Here's a definition of Fractals in the Bill Williams "counting fractals" sense.

__________

The basic definition of an 'up' fractal is a bar high that is both higher than the two bars immediately preceding it, and higher than the two bars immediately following it. The lows of the bars are not considered in determining the up fractal progression.

If two bars in the progression have equal highs followed by two consecutive bars with lower highs, then a total of six bars rather than the usual five bars will make up the progression. The first high becomes the counting fractal. Reverse for 'down' fractals.
A wide range bar can be both an 'up' fractal and a 'down' fractal at the same time.



___________


I believe the MT4 fractal indicator uses this definition although I could be wrong.


Personally, I wouldn't get too hung up on whether it fits the definition exactly. Try to also think in terms of peaks and troughs or swing highs and swing lows. The EURAUD example posted earlier wouldn't be classed as a fractal in Bill Williams terms but just eyeballing the chart shows it's a key turning point.
  • #715
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:30pm Nov 20, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting feb2865
Yes.

My entry would have been on the bearish candle, but as you see didn't break the higher/high so I'll sit on my hands waiting for the next candle. In this particular case the next one broke the pattern so it was good.

As for minimum amount for retracement, if I see one (like the one you're showing) it's ok. As for two, I will be cautious. Probably won't take it.

Peace
Feb,

I placed pending buy order few pips above the fractal (4 hours and daily only) , 4 out of 5 cases it actually came to that point my order got triggered and went right back down http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

Is this what you meant by 'sharks waiting' in your earlier posts?

I want to understand this better.

Am I suppose to wait until a close happens above the Fractal before entering rather than as soon as it clears the fractal. And never to use the pending order

Honestly, I can't thank you enough for strating this thread.

Thanks,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #716
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:39pm Nov 20, 2007 4:39pm
TradeStar ... can you post a chart with arrows to show which candle you entered (also indicate the price at which you entered at) and where exactly you put your stop loss (price for that, too)?

It will help Feb and others to help you better, thanks
  • #717
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:51pm Nov 20, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting leighsww
TradeStar ... can you post a chart with arrows to show which candle you entered (also indicate the price at which you entered at) and where exactly you put your stop loss (price for that, too)?

It will help Feb and others to help you better, thanks
Still not clear how to post a chart in FF. I have MT4 I can take a screen shot, If I Paste it, it creates a link! and not the picture!


Thanks,
Ram
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #718
  • Nov 20, 2007 4:57pm Nov 20, 2007 4:57pm
Quoting TradeStar
Still not clear how to post a chart in FF. I have MT4 I can take a screen shot, If I Paste it, it creates a link! and not the picture!
Are you using the attachment feature?

Read this following post --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...nt#post1713993

If you are doing that, yet it's still only linking rather than showing the actual image, go ahead and do it anyway, and I'm sure when we click on the link, it'll open up for us so we can see it. Try it anyway and see what happens.
  • #719
  • Nov 20, 2007 5:08pm Nov 20, 2007 5:08pm
Hi folks,

I just wanted to let you know my posts will be scarce for a few days. I am on vacation with my familiy in Florida and well you know how it goes when the family requires my time

I will try to keep up and post comments when I can. And I want to wish OND a warm welcome. Differing views will surely make this an extremely valuable resource for all who visit here.

Cheers everyone.

Trader_V
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #720
  • Nov 20, 2007 5:53pm Nov 20, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting Trader_V
And I want to wish OND a warm welcome. Differing views will surely make this an extremely valuable resource for all who visit here.

Cheers everyone.

Trader_V
That's very kind Trader V, thanks The fact Feb and yourself were prepared to be so sharing and helpful is what encouraged me to jump onboard too.

I feel right at home already and agree completely regarding slightly different perspectives. They enrich what is available and I too think this thread is a must-read for anyone who wants to escape the trap of being a frustrated slave to indicators.

Enjoy the vacation to the fullest!
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