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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,601
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:20am Nov 19, 2007 10:20am
Hello Rebecca, Congrats on your first post.....looks like you are taking the right approach and paying your dues and doing your homework........Looks like you are ready if the cable will just cooperate now........Quite a nice group of folks here and lots of time and effort spent on helping folks here and at www.fxtradeblog.com where Palmer assemble in on place the "meat" of the thread. Enjoy and welcome aboard!.....pipip........Jimdandy
  • #8,602
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:32am Nov 19, 2007 10:32am
Hi Philip,

Thank you so much for your encouragement; I feel rather starstruck that my first reply to my first ever post is from yourself! Thank you.

I did also work out a plan for the short scenario, but didn't go into it as I felt the post was long enough already! So here it is:

1. Potential short trade requires: 365 to break down & become resistance, (i.e. breaks, retracement to test resistance and moves away with TC signal given on MACD).

potential profit targets:

1. 2.0392 why?

20% level of fibonacci retracement between high & low of recent trending up phase. Also, strong previous S & R due to proximity to 2.0400.

2. 2.0349 why?

89ma on daily chart
21ma on weekly chart
Same level as current low and spike inside bottom of previous low (22nd Oct)

3. approx. 2.0320 why?

Support line of current possible bullish falling wedge on 4hr.
Position approx. 2/3 towards apex of wedge.
Strong S & R visible on daily chart.

4. 2.0249 why?

8ma on monthly chart
Strong support level on 4hr.

NOTE: Profit targets may not be exact. Watch candlesticks to observe strength of feeling as each level is approached. Watch interaction around the faster ma's. Reassess at each stage for possible exit strategies and stop loss positioning / re-positioning.

Each potential profit target level may also provide a sufficient degree of support for reversal of the 4hr trend (which would then become TC on the daily & higher TF's).


As I said earlier, I am not actually trading yet, still learning, but just want to know that I may be on the right track. It's a fine line between studying everything and improving technique, and creating 'paralysis by analysis'

Thanks for your reply; hope that one day I can contribute in a really useful, meaningful capacity. I am overwhelmed by the goodness in this thread.

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #8,603
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:38am Nov 19, 2007 10:38am
Quoting JimDandy
Hello Rebecca, Congrats on your first post.....looks like you are taking the right approach and paying your dues and doing your homework........Looks like you are ready if the cable will just cooperate now........Quite a nice group of folks here and lots of time and effort spent on helping folks here and at www.fxtradeblog.com where Palmer assemble in on place the "meat" of the thread. Enjoy and welcome aboard!.....pipip........Jimdandy

Hi Jimdandy, another welcome from another master! I am doing my homework, always was a girly swot!! If I had apples in my bags there'd be one for every one of you!

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #8,604
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:39am Nov 19, 2007 10:39am
Sorry, I was not able to send Phils analysis the last days, however here are the last posts.


GbpUsd

Entry as per attached graph. Tail of the top resistance. TP just above 200sma. BE after 40pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd.GIF Size: 31 KB
  • #8,605
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:39am Nov 19, 2007 10:39am
I have a hanging hammer where you have a spinner....macd is giving a less definite direction than yours...also looks like you have Sunday doji that i dont have here.........Green line is 55sma im looking into....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurosituartiongmt+2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #8,606
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:40am Nov 19, 2007 10:40am
EurUsd

Price is squashed in. I will wait for further development. Watch for a possible breakout to the bottom. I will enter on a pullback and watch the 1H and 30min for the pullback if it break out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd.GIF Size: 32 KB
  • #8,607
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:40am Nov 19, 2007 10:40am
I entered EurUsd as per attachment. Movement a bit uncertain but I trust the signal and the tails to the top as the emotional reason why I entered.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd.GIF Size: 33 KB
  • #8,608
  • Nov 19, 2007 10:44am Nov 19, 2007 10:44am
Someone left the chat a few moments ago so there should be a seat open.....pipp .......Jimdandy
  • #8,609
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:01am Nov 19, 2007 11:01am
Looks like the long scenario may be the most probable one Rebecca....if divergence has any say about it.........pipip........Jimdandy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp divergence.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #8,610
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:11am Nov 19, 2007 11:11am
Quoting JimDandy
Looks like the long scenario may be the most probable one Rebecca....if divergence has any say about it.........pipip........Jimdandy
Yes, we shall wait & see. Price is currently hugging the resistance line of the falling wedge, which means it could still be in play and the long is still looking good. I'm really interested to see what happens next but I shall have to be patient ('im indoors is wanting to know what he's having for tea tonight, so I shall have to love you and leave you for now!).

Cheery bye, see you all tomorrow if not later,

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #8,611
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:41am Nov 19, 2007 11:41am
Quoting ira
Palmer can you provide a chart with this trade, I took a loss today on EUR. Can't figure out how to trade these swings. I think it's better to stay out. Mr. Market is very nasty!
ira:

This was a very quick trade. The bull candle on the 1hr is what got me in. The next candle high was 2 pips above my target at 1.4677, My take profit was set at 1.4675 so it barely made it. The other position was stopped out at b/e.

This wasn't the best set-up by any means and yes I see that the MACD 1hr settings are not correct...juggling between charts right now...


Is it just me or is anyone else having trouble with the FF site being 'unabl;e to load'???
Attached Images
  • #8,612
  • Nov 19, 2007 11:46am Nov 19, 2007 11:46am
Quoting Palmer
ira:

Is it just me or is anyone else having trouble with the FF site being 'unabl;e to load'???
I haven't been able to load FF on my laptop for the past week. Had someone at Dell checking it for over 1 hour on Friday. Then today it loads perfectly.

That's even more confusing than the current market patterns!!

Mister ED
  • #8,613
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:02pm Nov 19, 2007 12:02pm
Yeah, I agree about the charts right now. Holiday week in the USA so might be kinda thin...

I am/was having the same trouble loading up the FF on my wireless connection and broadband wireless connection. The hardwired works but something about the wireless is wacky...
  • #8,614
  • Nov 19, 2007 12:15pm Nov 19, 2007 12:15pm
Hey guys looks like we have another hard worker on Board , welcome Rebecca. I will look forward to your posts for thorough analysis.

Just a quick heads up that the recent posts by PHILS Opinion are from last week, i am sure you all figured out by now. but at first i was like HUH?? my chart cannot be that different but then i checked the dates on bottom. I Know Fari is very kind to post them for us but just wanted to avoid any confusion. its post number 8605,8607,8608.

Kinda Rangy, kinda indecisive, kinda no trade for me day todayhehehe. looks like a break out on euro is on the cards. lets see what the market has in store for us. PATIENCE!!! Trade well.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #8,615
  • Edited 2:12pm Nov 19, 2007 12:20pm | Edited 2:12pm
Welcome Rebecca,
it's good to see some passion in this trading! Really, if you do something that you passionate about, it's not work, it's having fun!!

Here's my chart from gbp/jpy. I love gbp/jpy because of its volatility, but I don't like the spread
and really, I don't like trailing stop now... Should have gotten another 100 pips at least...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sell gbp-jpy november 19, 71 pips.JPG Size: 63 KB
  • #8,616
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:06pm Nov 19, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting Palmer
ira:

This was a very quick trade. The bull candle on the 1hr is what got me in. The next candle high was 2 pips above my target at 1.4677, My take profit was set at 1.4675 so it barely made it. The other position was stopped out at b/e.

This wasn't the best set-up by any means and yes I see that the MACD 1hr settings are not correct...juggling between charts right now...


Is it just me or is anyone else having trouble with the FF site being 'unabl;e to load'???
Thank you Palmer, I've got it now.
  • #8,617
  • Nov 19, 2007 1:15pm Nov 19, 2007 1:15pm
Hi Rebecca, I would also like to welcome you! It looks like we have got one more positive, friendly and enthusiastic person . And your analysis made me think that I'm lazy , thanks for that! Too bad you are not trading EUR, maybe I should have a closer look on GBP or make a better analysis for EUR.
  • #8,618
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:09pm Nov 19, 2007 2:09pm
hi guys,

here's my simple analysis for loonie.
Some comments/different point of view are welcome =)

Have a great pips!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: analysis on loonie.JPG Size: 61 KB
  • #8,619
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:43pm Nov 19, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting ira
Hi Rebecca, I would also like to welcome you! It looks like we have got one more positive, friendly and enthusiastic person . And your analysis made me think that I'm lazy , thanks for that! Too bad you are not trading EUR, maybe I should have a closer look on GBP or make a better analysis for EUR.

Ira,
That post of Rebecca's got me thinking too - and you verbalized how I felt about myself. Half record and half think about the trade. Next trade I'll.....

thanks for the wake up call.
  • #8,620
  • Nov 19, 2007 2:56pm Nov 19, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting InForTheHaul
Ira,
That post of Rebecca's got me thinking too - and you verbalized how I felt about myself. Half record and half think about the trade. Next trade I'll.....

thanks for the wake up call.
Now that we are in the confession zone. After the inspiration today i deleted all my charts and started them from scratch again with trendlines and Fibs, starting from monthly going down to 4 hour. I guess i was just about to snuggle in to my comfort zone with a nice cup of tea and a good book , i guess i was getting too comfortable , well cant let opportunity pass by. and then look for reasons not to take the trade. and then post a comment like. kinda rangy --hmmm was that me , well well. i guess needed someone to keep us on our toes. just in time. !!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
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