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  • #661
  • Nov 17, 2007 5:08pm Nov 17, 2007 5:08pm
hi guys,

here's some of my fibo trading. Any comments would be appreciated =)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: how to use fibo, another great example on cable daily.JPG Size: 123 KB
  • #662
  • Nov 17, 2007 5:35pm Nov 17, 2007 5:35pm
Hey Thex;
Man you are working your butt off. Good for you.
Two things that might help.
1. On the Oct. problem. I have a rule, on the 30 minute chart. If I am not in profit within 5 candles I am out to live another day. It might work for you.
2. I have no gaps with either of my brokers on Oct.5 . I use IBFX and MBT.
Hope this helps.
  • #663
  • Nov 17, 2007 6:41pm Nov 17, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting benniardi
hi guys,

here's some of my fibo trading. Any comments would be appreciated =)
Hi benniardi, looks like you have a lot of info there and it appears you have a chart you understand pretty good. It is a bit busy for the way I trade, so I might not be the best commentator for ya, but looks okay to me.

Have you been trading fibs like it is explained in this thread?

Anyway, good luck and if you have a more specific question about your chart I'm happy to try to answer it for ya.
Robonacci com
  • #664
  • Nov 17, 2007 6:44pm Nov 17, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting bapxyz
Hey Thex;
Man you are working your butt off. Good for you.
Two things that might help.
1. On the Oct. problem. I have a rule, on the 30 minute chart. If I am not in profit within 5 candles I am out to live another day. It might work for you.
2. I have no gaps with either of my brokers on Oct.5 . I use IBFX and MBT.
Hope this helps.
I'm not sure what it is Bap, but I get a kick out of your dog every time you post Cute chocodog!
Attached Image
Robonacci com
  • #665
  • Nov 17, 2007 9:19pm Nov 17, 2007 9:19pm
I think I've been spending more time trying to print to a PDF than actually doing the back testing...I blame Vista. I've always had no trouble making a PDF and now the new elements are Office 2007 and Vista, suddenly no PDF's.

I've tried the old computer with XP on it, but office 2007 is on there too and it won't properly print from Excel to PDF at least on the pages I made with pictures plus text boxes, comes out white paper all blank screens.

So for now all I have is my transaction summary sheet to attach. Hopefully tomorrow I can transfer the screen shots and write-ups to Word and see if that lets me make a PDF.

I hate vista. Nothing but problems since June. Webcam disappeared, Sound card can't record, and PDFs don't exist.

I forgot to write somewhat of a legend in there for what the columns exactly mean. The swing fib levels are straight forward, the price of each swing fib trade observed, where T1 and T2 are the specific long or short values related to the trade direction.

Price Move is the general distance price travelled so I can see if it exceeded T2, how far did it go, or if it didn't make it to T2, how close did it come

Actual pip move is a calculation in pips from the break out (swing high or low) to the price move.

T1 and T2 range is a pip calculation of the distance from break out to each target (whether it makes it or not, it's just a range calculation).

Retrace before T1 hit is a price value obtained by following candles after break out on the 1 minute chart to see if it would have been stopped before hitting T1.

Proximity to pivot is a pip calculation of how close price came to getting stopped out based on the retrace price found. It helps gauge how strong or risky the move really was and if there are any stop placement tweaks that could help.

Trade result shows where price made it.

Daily T1 profit is the pip count earned by reaching T1, or lost by getting stopped out. It is calculated by summing the transaction of a given day and subtracting 5 pips per transaction for spread.

This exercise only takes profit at T1 to guarantee something is earned. By looking at how the targets were hit maybe something can be optimized to give more profits.

I still hate vista.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2007-10 Swing Breakout Trade Results.pdf   51 KB | 1,246 downloads
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #666
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:46am Nov 18, 2007 2:46am
That's good Skunny; He is one confused puppy. A lot like me.

Hey Thex, apparently the new updates to Adobe let you convert to PDF on line. Something called "beyond Adobe".
Sorry to hear about Vista. I have yet to see anybody be enthusiastic about Vista. I had MA on one of my computers and it made life miserable.
  • #667
  • Nov 18, 2007 4:26am Nov 18, 2007 4:26am
Quoting Thexder
I think I've been spending more time trying to print to a PDF than actually doing the back testing...I blame Vista. I've always had no trouble making a PDF and now the new elements are Office 2007 and Vista, suddenly no PDF's.

I've tried the old computer with XP on it, but office 2007 is on there too and it won't properly print from Excel to PDF at least on the pages I made with pictures plus text boxes, comes out white paper all blank screens.

So for now all I have is my transaction summary sheet to attach. Hopefully tomorrow I can transfer the screen shots and write-ups to Word and see if that lets me make a PDF.

I hate vista. Nothing but problems since June. Webcam disappeared, Sound card can't record, and PDFs don't exist.

I forgot to write somewhat of a legend in there for what the columns exactly mean. The swing fib levels are straight forward, the price of each swing fib trade observed, where T1 and T2 are the specific long or short values related to the trade direction.

Price Move is the general distance price travelled so I can see if it exceeded T2, how far did it go, or if it didn't make it to T2, how close did it come

Actual pip move is a calculation in pips from the break out (swing high or low) to the price move.

T1 and T2 range is a pip calculation of the distance from break out to each target (whether it makes it or not, it's just a range calculation).

Retrace before T1 hit is a price value obtained by following candles after break out on the 1 minute chart to see if it would have been stopped before hitting T1.

Proximity to pivot is a pip calculation of how close price came to getting stopped out based on the retrace price found. It helps gauge how strong or risky the move really was and if there are any stop placement tweaks that could help.

Trade result shows where price made it.

Daily T1 profit is the pip count earned by reaching T1, or lost by getting stopped out. It is calculated by summing the transaction of a given day and subtracting 5 pips per transaction for spread.

This exercise only takes profit at T1 to guarantee something is earned. By looking at how the targets were hit maybe something can be optimized to give more profits.

I still hate vista.
Please show the picture.
  • #668
  • Nov 18, 2007 9:47am Nov 18, 2007 9:47am
I think I installed and re-installed acrobat 10 times and did many system restores before giving up and finding out there's a freeware PDF writer that supports windows all the way up to vista 64.

It took 10 seconds to install and worked right away. It's called CutePDF.

So I am finally compiling October's results and I'll post a PDF within the next few hours. The first week of screen shots and notes created a 150k PDF size, so I should be able to put the whole month in one file and stay within the 900+kb file attach limit for PDFs here.

The screen captures of charts aren't always the most insightful because some of them are zoomed in too close to get a feel for the whole session. I didn't start out intending to make a tutorial, I just wanted to make some notes and observations and take close ups so I can see the price numbers.

Also there was at least one day where I forgot to pull the intraday fibs to the current position so there's an error with that fib on one trading day somewhere but I wasn't even looking at those fibs, just swing. I put intraday as a reference in case I saw some correlation after the fact when analyzing.

And the whole thing should be taken with a grain of salt, such as when I choose to ignore a losing trade due to some discretion that could be applied to avoid taking the trade. It's just a bunch of notes to learn from for the future rather than a proof of concept of the past.

The more days I evaluated throughout the month, the more intuition I might have gained so I may have done things differently near the end. That's what I was aiming for.

And once again, a reminder of the method I used. I didn't look at any other fibs except the latest suitable swing fibs drawn across a move of at least 30 pips, traded only within the usual London/US sessions and using discretion to choose a long or short bias before placing any orders. I would look to see if candles within the swing fibs were favouring the long or short side prior to a break out (mostly looking at where the real bodies were located). Using trade direction bias allowed filtering some bad trades rather than taking any straddled swing breaks that came along. And sometimes the trade bias became subjective - a leap of faith on a candle that suddenly shot the other way, etc. I set exit target for T1 fib and usually put a stop at swing Pivot unless the swing range was smaller than maybe 40 pips, then I would place it at the opposite end of the swing area from the break out (if it broke the swing low I put a stop at swing high).

So I'll go start the coffee maker, cut and paste and proof read the last 3 weeks of notes and post the PDF.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #669
  • Nov 18, 2007 10:16am Nov 18, 2007 10:16am
I gotta say the threads been a little busy this weekend, and I certainly appreciate all the work being done.Thexder...awsome job with the backtesting your doing it the correct way, by trying to use the worst case senerios and earliest targets your results will be closer to realistic.You want to try and find why it wont work and let the fibs prove to you that they do, you'll get alot more out from it that way.I am the same way.Once Fibonnaci is learned any method you try will become easier because you will understand market movement through support and resistance.
During your backtesting did you realise you traded through all the news events and never knew what they were....Support and Resistance either holds or it doesnt !
Once i get back home Ill try and answer everyone questions
Thanks Skunny for helping everyone in my absense..
  • #670
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:14pm Nov 18, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting Bobokus
I gotta say the threads been a little busy this
Once i get back home Ill try and answer everyone questions
Thanks Skunny for helping everyone in my absense..
Well.... if ain't Grand Master Bo! Write us a little fib rap, so we can be down wit it bro.

Buzz me later, I just took our fibo's to the next level.....you're going to freak out. I think I broke the forex code. 2 months on vhands and not one loser and a garbage bag full of pips. You can trade all day if you want pip'n here and there.....to and fro
Robonacci com
  • #671
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:48pm Nov 18, 2007 12:48pm
Here's 48 pages of swing break outs for October.

Beyond this research, combining it with other long term fibs or other support/resistance, or other trading methods entirely, it should have a lot of potential, but even just on its own it seems perfectly rewarding.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Fibonacci Breakout Trade Notes October 2007.pdf   509 KB | 1,403 downloads
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #672
  • Nov 18, 2007 1:42pm Nov 18, 2007 1:42pm
Quoting Thexder
Here's 48 pages of swing break outs for October.

Beyond this research, combining it with other long term fibs or other support/resistance, or other trading methods entirely, it should have a lot of potential, but even just on its own it seems perfectly rewarding.
You've been busy ! Take a break and drink a few of those beers.
Robonacci com
  • #673
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:05pm Nov 18, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting SKUNNY
You've been busy ! Take a break and drink a few of those beers.
Maybe after I go back to November and finish the week of 12 thru 16...
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #674
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:17pm Nov 18, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting Thexder
Maybe after I go back to November and finish the week of 12 thru 16...
Well........I'm not gonna wait for ya
Robonacci com
  • #675
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:18pm Nov 18, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting SKUNNY
Well........I'm not gonna wait for ya
I already know the results....lol
Robonacci com
  • #676
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:21pm Nov 18, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting Thexder
Here's 48 pages of swing break outs for October.

Beyond this research, combining it with other long term fibs or other support/resistance, or other trading methods entirely, it should have a lot of potential, but even just on its own it seems perfectly rewarding.
Very nicely done, you followed along with the market and recognised the opportity's when they arose.You wont always have to close at or use T1 as a target but it does provide the quick in and out of the market and is the safest bet.I originally when I posted this back in the beginning gave 1.34 and 1.55 as the T1 and T2 levels just so new traders could get out with their profits earlier until they developed their skills more and had more understanding of market/price movement., during live youll be watching the price action and momentum of each move and most often will be able to detirmine if it will continue or to take out your profits there.
But you did a very good job with presenting it in the PDF, thank you for your efforts and the time you invested into putting it together.
  • #677
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:29pm Nov 18, 2007 2:29pm
Thanks for empowering me to do so.

I used those conservative T1/T2 levels in this study also instead of the 1.382 and 1.618's since it's what I started with and I'm not ready to shed the training wheels yet.

At this point after this study I think I have more clarity once again about the potential of those levels and I'll most likely try looking at some longer term fibs to see the difference, like if only following intraday levels are the same targets met and what is the difference in profit...and how does the result of different term fibs (swing vs intraday) compare to the effort required...maybe taking every swing trade results in a bigger profit but you have to sit there in front of the screen a lot more..etc.

One good thing - now that the swing is done, if I want to go back over a month with wider range fibs, it won't take nearly half as long, there'll be less trade setups to account for.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #678
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:51pm Nov 18, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting Thexder
Thanks for empowering me to do so.
Regarding thanking Bobokus, i concur with you Thexder. I also want to thank him for sharing his knowledge, his encouragement, his patience to explain in detail, his prompt response to all the messages.
I would also like to thank you for sharing your backtest results in detail. I appreciate your effort in producing an excellent pdf.
Once again many thanks to the pair of you.
Adam
  • #679
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:22pm Nov 18, 2007 3:22pm
Hey Bo, sent you a PM about the the great fibo find... it's so good we'll have to rename it Robonacci. (which is my first name for those that don't know)
Robonacci com
  • #680
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:29pm Nov 18, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting SKUNNY
Hey Bo, sent you a PM about the the great fibo find... it's so good we'll have to rename it Robonacci. (which is my first name for those that don't know)
Just looking at it it looks great, unreal results. Ill get back to ya after I do some backtesting with it.
Robinacci...thats funny
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