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The System (Irony included)

  • #501
  • Nov 16, 2007 12:13am Nov 16, 2007 12:13am
Thanks Trader V for the very wise post regarding demo vs real. It almost needs to go in the beginners section with a sticky on it!
I think it was Merlin who quoted somewhere in this forum....that when a trader starts to look at his account growth in terms of percentage figures then they are on their way to becoming a serious trader.
Great post.

I think both you Trader V, and Feb are a great combination on this thread and in many ways your differences are complimentary to each other.
  • #502
  • Nov 16, 2007 1:10am Nov 16, 2007 1:10am
Quoting ownshook
As for the consolidation method....that was discussed in a private conversation that I can not share.

Seriously though....there isn't a post in regards to that. My mistake. I have spent too much time at the computer and have taken the first few posts Feb made that made mention of consolidation and was thinking about a PA method using IB for a break above and gelled the two together.
Bad, bad, ownshook!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

LOL, me thinks ownshook may be hitting on Mr. Merlot's brother, Mr. Cabernet :

Quoting ownshook
That said...by looking at the original charts that were posted...the V pattern appears to form inside the consolidation so I am wondering if the same method applies.
Are you referring to the chart in his 2nd post? I would think that as long as the V-Formation criteria is met, that, yes, you would implement it.
  • #503
  • Nov 16, 2007 1:13am Nov 16, 2007 1:13am
Quoting leighsww
LOL, me thinks ownshook may be hitting on Mr. Merlot's brother, Mr. Cabernet :
hehehe
  • #504
  • Nov 16, 2007 1:43am Nov 16, 2007 1:43am
Quoting ownshook
That said...by looking at the original charts that were posted...the V pattern appears to form inside the consolidation so I am wondering if the same method applies.
Okay, after trying to figure out why the consolidation would be a problem in feb's Post #2 (because I didn't see it as any issue), I came to the realization that you were probably referring instead to this chart --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=479

When you said "original charts" I thought you were talking about his first two posts (cuz you mentioned "his first couple posts" just above your question).

Boy, I really think I may have to open that psychic center, cuz trying to interpret posts is like needing to be psychic, lol :

I see what you mean now. Maybe in the case of a consolidation then, if there is a correction candle, perhaps it is better to wait one more candlestick's close to the upside then. Or at least for that 4th candle to break clearly above the 2nd candle's high. Hmmmm, these are good points you are bringing up, ownshook!

Things we need to definitely consider for putting the odds in our favor, for sure!
  • #505
  • Nov 16, 2007 2:50am Nov 16, 2007 2:50am
Feb! I have followed your thread from day first and am reading every day.
Very educational thread for all traders or who want to be on the future.
I hope we can learn more form you and other experianced traders.
Trader_V!!!! Your post on opening demo and live account is "Great post post of the day"
Have a nice day !!!!!
maritu
Still learning the Paradox
  • #506
  • Nov 16, 2007 7:12am Nov 16, 2007 7:12am
An update on the USD/JPY trade.

I just wanted to point out how I am managing my trade and show you how I make some of my decisions.

On the chart we can see the bar where I entered the trade (indicated by the first blue arrow. We can see how price has moved down nicely and my stop is at break even for a free ride plus a couple of pips.

Now this is where a lot of traders get nervous and exit sometimes prematurely and sometimes it turns out to be the right decision.

I am watching where price closes on this current bar. If you look at the large bearish outside bar indicated by the second blue arrow you will see it was a strong move down. If prices close above this bar or move with some force above the high of this bar I will exit the trade.

Alternatively this is also where I would look for a possible continuation of the major trend headed down. Being cautious near the newest support area indicated by the yellow area and cautious again in the area of the horizontal line.


Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy4.gif Size: 28 KB
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #507
  • Nov 16, 2007 9:22am Nov 16, 2007 9:22am
Hello Feb, Trader V and everyone else.

First, congrats on a great tread.
Price action makes sense to me.
Would like to ask about market inter relations.

Gold vs. USD makes sense. So is Oil. DOW is a bit harder to understand for me. I do realize it has to do with a carry trades, but not sure how.
I'm sure Bonds and Libor rates and many more things come into play, and it would probably should be a topic of it's own for a tread.

So if it's impossible to answer in a confines of this tread, just disregard.
But...Feb, since you don't have much to do ( you are thinking about retirement, after all) maybe you should start another tread.

Would greatly apreciate any insight.
  • #508
  • Nov 16, 2007 10:40am Nov 16, 2007 10:40am
Trader V...Wanted to thank you for your recent word document as well as keeping us abreast on a current trade you have entered and the logic behind it.

leighsww....sometimes my brain moves too fast that I can't keep up with what I am trying to say. I guess that is why I need clarity from others because I sure have a problem with it.
  • #509
  • Nov 16, 2007 2:26pm Nov 16, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting leighsww
In my opinion, EUR/USD is still looking like it can go either way (it might even be developing into a consolidation, who knows) ... my 4hr chart has developed a higher low and a lower high on the Fractals. The higher low's Fractal however, can still change/redraw.

It's still too early to tell or make any decisions one way or the other for me.

For myself, closing at 1.4600 still wouldn't tell me anything (but then again, I don't know how to count cards yet ), because the higher low and lower high is still going to be prevalent on the 4hr. I wouldn't yet consider it going largely bearish until the break of around 1.4520 (the low Fractal on the Daily). Then a double-top would be confirmed, no?

Anyway, that's just my observation when reading my chart.

Here's what my 4hr chart looks like:
I have an observation to make about your charts. What you have drawn as support and resistance levels does not seem like support and resistance levels to me. It seems rather just like recent highs and lows that that market has made over a few sessions.

So here is my question. How do you distinguish between recent highs/lows and real market support and resistance levels?

For me daily pivot point and the support and resistance levels that are associated with it is the real support and resistance levels that the market tends to react to.

I have attached a chart to show how the market reacts to daily/weekly/monthly pivot points and support resistance levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long jpy.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #510
  • Nov 16, 2007 3:12pm Nov 16, 2007 3:12pm
Quoting iandekoker
I have an observation to make about your charts. What you have drawn as support and resistance levels does not seem like support and resistance levels to me. It seems rather just like recent highs and lows that that market has made over a few sessions.
They aren't S/R levels, my chart is depicting Fractals. What made you think they were S/R levels?

LOL, I know this thread is long, but if you're not reading it from the beginning or reading posts carefully and thoroughly, then you're probably missing a lot of info

You might want to read this post regarding what my chart is depicting ( linked to the Fractal info on that post ) --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post1711325

I will be answering your other questions in another post, but I wanted you to read that first. Also, because my next post is going to be long, lol, so I didn't want to have it all be on one post, since I think that is why people might not be reading my posts (or it's maybe because it's just not interesting enough, haha .
  • #511
  • Nov 16, 2007 3:24pm Nov 16, 2007 3:24pm
Hello everyone

Nothing for me on E/U yet

we're still in choppyland I guess Trader V has something going on with the yen!!!

let's see what happens

peace
Peace
  • #512
  • Nov 16, 2007 3:31pm Nov 16, 2007 3:31pm
Quoting ian
So here is my question. How do you distinguish between recent highs/lows and real market support and resistance levels?
Well, since I'm laboratory testing this to quantify the results of feb's method of only reading PA on naked charts at the simplest level, basically to track the consistency ratio it has in regards to profitable results, I am not going to set pivot points, trendlines, S/R levels, Fibs, etc.

I am only going by Fractals and the V-Formation criteria.

Yes, sure, there will be times when a resistance level might be ahead, but following the criteria of the V-Formation and looking at how the Fractals are forming (ex: higher highs, lower lows, higher lows/lower highs, etc.) tells you a lot. In my opinion, the story is unfolding with just those set of info. That's why we have to wait for the current candle to break through the 2nd candle's high (or low) in order for it to be safe to enter a position. Otherwise, we wait for the next bus.

There may be times that the V-Formation isn't all that's required, but if you read my analogy with BlackJack strategies, if you follow a strategy/method that has proven to have good results consistently, even at the basic level, you can still put the odds in your favor. Other factors, like reading the intermarket relations, etc., are more like the card counting aspect. They enhance putting the odds more in your favor, but they are not needed, in my opinion, to still give profitable results. Those we can implement once we have learned the basics and can then graduate to a higher level (like those who are already experienced traders).

I am going to break my posts up, cuz I think when my verbiage gets too long, people are either skipping them or not reading them good :, lol. I will answer your next question in my next post.
  • #513
  • Nov 16, 2007 3:39pm Nov 16, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting leighsww
Well, since I'm laboratory testing this to quantify the results of feb's method of only reading PA on naked charts at the simplest level, basically to track the consistency ratio it has in regards to profitable results, I am not going to set pivot points, trendlines, S/R levels, Fibs, etc.

I am only going by Fractals and the V-Formation criteria.

Yes, sure, there will be times when a resistance level might be ahead, but following the criteria of the V-Formation and looking at how the Fractals are forming (ex: higher highs, lower lows, higher lows/lower highs, etc.) tells you a lot. In my opinion, the story is unfolding with just those set of info. That's why we have to wait for the current candle to break through the 2nd candle's high (or low) in order for it to be safe to enter a position. Otherwise, we wait for the next bus.

There may be times that the V-Formation isn't all that's required, but if you read my analogy with BlackJack strategies, if you follow a strategy/method that has proven to have good results consistently, even at the basic level, you can still put the odds in your favor. Other factors, like reading the intermarket relations, etc., are more like the card counting aspect. They enhance putting the odds more in your favor, but they are not needed, in my opinion, to still give profitable results. Those we can implement once we have learned the basics and can then graduate to a higher level (like those who are already experienced traders).

I am going to break my posts up, cuz I think when my verbiage gets too long, people are either skipping them or not reading them good :, lol. I will answer your next question in my next post.
It's actually a fact that the more you write, the less people will read when it comes to forums and email.

I work in a Fortune 50, and they teach Managers to always get to the point quickly... because people will simply gloss over it.

Kinda interesting.

Standup is the same way. Talk to a comedian and they'll tell you that you should always use the three-line rule... basically, your setup is the first two lines, with the punch at the end...because anymore than that, and you will not get as many laughs because people want you to get to the punchline quickly...
Mr. Trend
  • #514
  • Nov 16, 2007 4:03pm Nov 16, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting ian
For me daily pivot point and the support and resistance levels that are associated with it is the real support and resistance levels that the market tends to react to.
You are right that the market reacts to S/R levels. It's a "which came first, chicken or egg" syndrome, lol, cuz I believe that the market reacts moreso to it, because everybody's been told that the market reacts to it, so in essence, that fact causes the market reaction to it :

I was using them previously myself. My charts have a built in Pivot Calculator that draws the pivot line and S/R levels automatically for me. I had it permanently on my various timeframes using the appropriate one for each timeframe.

They are certainly tools you can use, but to me, after studying up on this PA stuff, I really feel I have all the info I need to make a decision. Also, again, I'm treating this as a mechanical method where I enter when the V-Formation presents itself. The only place I will use discretion is on the 4hr to see if I can get a discount on the price.

I have been trading for 8 months, and quite frankly, I haven't been totally bad at. Actually if you read my Post #251 and looked at my statistics, I actually had 3 of the 5 months end with profit rather than loss (not good profit, lol, but profit rather than loss, nonetheless), but the commissions reduced my profitability quite a bit.

Throughout my 8 months, I was using EMAs and Pivots/S/L (I was using Fractals, but the other indicators took my attention)

After reading this thread, however, and learning from feb and others here, it hit me almost like a revelation ... the indicators and such were really taking my focus away (distracting me) from just reading the PA which really give enough info on the situation.

In fact, I'm sure this has been other people's dilemma, too ... but when I had let's say a 25ema, 50ema and 200ema on my charts on multiple timeframes (because I do subscribe to the notion that you should be looking at various timeframes for confirmation of the trend, etc.), it always had me anticipating/trying to guess which 25/50/200 ema on which timeframe was the price going to go to. A 25ema or 50ema on the higher timeframes is sure in a heck of a different place than on a 15m or 30m timeframe.

For me, those just became more of an obstruction than anything else.

The more I strictly go with a naked chart and only the Fractals, the more I have come to realize just how distracting on both my eyes and my decisions, those other indicators were.

The thing I did like about the Pivots/S/R levels, was where to put my SL. I used to use that mainly for trying to get in as close to one of those areas and not in the middle of it, for a better, safer SL positioning.

However, I won't need that anymore, because my SL, with this method, is at the bottom/top of the previous Daily's candle.

So, I honestly feel, that I do not need any indicators or pivot points, fibs, etc. because I can get all the info I need from just PA and Fractals. I just wait for the V-Formation criteria, watch my Fractal formations, and I'm good to go.

Anyway, we shall see. I'm only just now commencing this laboratory testing, lol, so as the months roll on, my quantified results will determined if it's improved my consistency in profitability.
  • #515
  • Nov 16, 2007 4:28pm Nov 16, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting leighsww
I have been trading for 8 months, and quite frankly, I haven't been totally bad at. Actually if you read my Post #251 and looked at my statistics, I actually had 3 of the 5 months end with profit rather than loss (not good profit, lol, but profit rather than loss, nonetheless), but the commissions reduced my profitability quite a bit.
The fact that you are a woman puts you at a great advantage. Generally, speaking, women are better traders than men.
Mr. Trend
  • #516
  • Nov 16, 2007 4:40pm Nov 16, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting Trader_V
An update on the USD/JPY trade.

I just wanted to point out how I am managing my trade and show you how I make some of my decisions.

On the chart we can see the bar where I entered the trade (indicated by the first blue arrow. We can see how price has moved down nicely and my stop is at break even for a free ride plus a couple of pips.

Now this is where a lot of traders get nervous and exit sometimes prematurely and sometimes it turns out to be the right decision.

I am watching where price closes on this current bar. If you look at the large bearish outside bar indicated by the second blue arrow you will see it was a strong move down. If prices close above this bar or move with some force above the high of this bar I will exit the trade.

Alternatively this is also where I would look for a possible continuation of the major trend headed down. Being cautious near the newest support area indicated by the yellow area and cautious again in the area of the horizontal line.


Cheers!
Trader_V

I am confused with the US/JP chart that you posted.I can see the logic behind the way in which you are managing your trade but I cannot see why did you enter that trade in the first place. According to your method, you will only enter a trade after the fractal point has been broken (the higher-high or the lower-low). I do not see that happening in your chart. Is this an entry based in a different method?
  • #517
  • Edited 10:51pm Nov 16, 2007 4:44pm | Edited 10:51pm
Quoting Mr Trend
It's actually a fact that the more you write, the less people will read when it comes to forums and email.
Well, that's a shame that people are bothered to read things through. I try to be thorough in reading what people write, because by not doing so, I am not caring enough about what they have to say.

That's how I feel about it anyway.

Quoting Mr Trend
I work in a Fortune 50, and they teach Managers to always get to the point quickly... because people will simply gloss over it.
Yeah, but there were many times that I, as well as others, got to the point regarding where to get in on the 3rd candle of the V-Formation and you STILL didn't get it, lol :

Until today (because I do believe that now you are reading my posts thoroughly), I had figured you were not only a discretionary trader, but also a discretionary reader, lol

From my many years of relationships with people in my life ... I have found that nobody is insignificant. Even the least expected person may prove to add value to your life

Learning/benefiting/value can come from all walks of life and from all ages (even a 3 year old can teach us things, lol) ... if you choose to discard/ignore those who you do not feel worthy of your attention, you truly lose out in the end.

Hey, I still luvs you, even if you can be a silly, silly man sometimes, lol, but I don't know if I can honestly say that I have as much respect for you as I could, because of your lack of humility.

The "Needing to be right" or more importantly, "needing to make others wrong" syndromes are not endearing qualities. Trust me, I was one of those in my younger days :, and it took something painful to make me look at myself and how I affected the lives of the people around me.

Anyway, I'm not here to preach, but my last words to you on this subject are ...

Practice humility, my friend ... it can do wonders for the respect you gain and embracing wonderful relationships with people in your life! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hug.gif

Hey, but even if I might not have the kind of respect for you as I have for feb, it doesn't mean that I can't have it in the future, you know. So, please, take my words however you want, but I only tell you this from what I feel from my heart.

Believe me, if I didn't care about you in some way, I wouldn't even bother to write you this. Somebody cared enough about me back then to want to see me have better relationships in my life, so I am "paying it forward," so-to-speak, lol.

Quoting Mr Trend
Standup is the same way. Talk to a comedian and they'll tell you that you should always use the three-line rule... basically, your setup is the first two lines, with the punch at the end...because anymore than that, and you will not get as many laughs because people want you to get to the punchline quickly...
That's interesting. Were you trying to be a standup comic that you know these things? :
  • #518
  • Nov 16, 2007 4:55pm Nov 16, 2007 4:55pm
Quoting Mr Trend
The fact that you are a woman puts you at a great advantage. Generally, speaking, women are better traders than men.
That is not true, how can that be true? lol

That's an excuse if you think that :.

Hey, pips don't get turned on by estrogen : (they aren't silly like men :, oh boy, am I gonna get in trouble for that one)

Anyway, I believe that anybody can become a good trader if they play it like BlackJack, lol (sorry, I keep bringing up BJ, but I truly believe that this is the key analogy, haha)

Mr Trend ... you game to get naked on only ONE pair that you trade and try this with us, this feb method. That way you can do that side-by-side comparison to truly quantify your previous statement which is somewhere in the recesses of this thread, lol.

C'mon get naked with us, maybe when you become vulnerable, you learn humility, lol. Also, I truly have become fond of you, cuz as silly as you are sometimes, I see you are making some progress with the syndromes (you haven't tried to make me wrong for no reason yet, at least
  • #519
  • Nov 16, 2007 5:52pm Nov 16, 2007 5:52pm
I love your post leighs

keep the coming!!!!

peace
Peace
  • #520
  • Edited 10:56pm Nov 16, 2007 5:58pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting leighsww
Hey, but even if I might not have the kind of respect for you as I have for feb, it doesn't mean that I can't have it in the future, you know.
I wanted to add something to this sentence (cuz I reread my post and I feel I didn't say it accurately) ...

I should have said "even if I might not have the 'degree' of respect" because I most certainly have a certain respect for you in some areas of what I have read from your posts.

I feel you know a lot about trading and the business of it. I feel you have a lot to offer people and we/many can learn a lot from you in this regards (but I also feel that you can learn a few things still, from others as well).

So, please continue to contribute to us in this thread, I want to learn more from you, because I have a feeling that I will be having the same kind of respect for you as I do for feb in no time at all (I think you are a man of honor, just a little brash and sassy, is all :. But hey, brash and sassy is fine, but just use it wisely/appropriately, k?)

http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/hug.gif
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