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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,061
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:28pm Nov 14, 2007 11:28pm
Quoting MoForce
LOL and the funny thing is about 75-80% of OANDA's traders are long with G/J... I've noticed something... in the long run the majority isn't in the right direction. Let's hope it holds true = P
lol. that's why they put this information available...
  • #14,062
  • Nov 14, 2007 11:36pm Nov 14, 2007 11:36pm
I have 3 signals to a ranging period in H4... unless a breakout or something...
Attached Image
  • #14,063
  • Nov 15, 2007 2:06am Nov 15, 2007 2:06am
doesn't seem ranging hehe
  • #14,064
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:55am Nov 15, 2007 6:55am
Quoting MoForce
LOL and the funny thing is about 75-80% of OANDA's traders are long with G/J... I've noticed something... in the long run the majority isn't in the right direction. Let's hope it holds true = P
Wow, now that is valuable information. You should post more of it around key reversal areas as a contra-indicator. I wonder whether the percentage increases near to them.
  • #14,065
  • Nov 16, 2007 5:42am Nov 16, 2007 5:42am
I am looking for a reversal should my target hit around the 221/220 region. Reading the timepoints from some time masters on another site, if this occurs on Friday or Monday I will be more confident of a reversal.

Now from 221/220 I am expecting 245/247 so a nice 2500+ pip potential there with positive interest.... I will be looking to enter quite large should that level print - these opportunities do not come often.

The caveat as always is - if that support breaks then I expect to see a big move south and have my positions reversed but I'll enter long whilst within the wall. http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif
  • #14,066
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:13am Nov 16, 2007 6:13am
Anybody seen Wolf?
  • #14,067
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:14am Nov 16, 2007 6:14am
Quoting DollaBill
Anybody seen Wolf?
He is on the auslanco thread right now.
  • #14,068
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:33am Nov 16, 2007 6:33am
Hi Dollabill and Gnat..... Nice to be missed LOL.

Have been busy with trading and life in general and have not had chance to post much.

Also been under the weather (Sympathy please) still not right yet had the man flu and you know how serious that is.

Taken all my energy just to trade but hope to get back to posting some analysis soon.

I'm long by the way hoping for some more movement upwards.

Cheers.
  • #14,069
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:36am Nov 16, 2007 6:36am
ZORAN! dali si ti možda srbin
  • #14,070
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:38am Nov 16, 2007 6:38am
Quoting Zoran
I am looking for a reversal should my target hit around the 221/220 region. Reading the timepoints from some time masters on another site, if this occurs on Friday or Monday I will be more confident of a reversal.

Now from 221/220 I am expecting 245/247 so a nice 2500+ pip potential there with positive interest.... I will be looking to enter quite large should that level print - these opportunities do not come often.

The caveat as always is - if that support breaks then I expect to see a big move south and have my positions reversed but I'll enter long whilst within the wall. http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif
Zo,

r u expecting to see 229 area today b4 move down?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #14,071
  • Nov 16, 2007 6:43am Nov 16, 2007 6:43am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Dollabill and Gnat..... Nice to be missed LOL.

Have been busy with trading and life in general and have not had chance to post much.

Also been under the weather (Sympathy please) still not right yet had the man flu and you know how serious that is.

Taken all my energy just to trade but hope to get back to posting some analysis soon.

I'm long by the way hoping for some more movement upwards.

Cheers.
you will sure be better soon - and being long may help!!
  • #14,072
  • Edited 7:22am Nov 16, 2007 7:07am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting moneymagnet
Zo,

r u expecting to see 229 area today b4 move down?
No, not that high. I was expecting 228.00 max but I'd say this is the final bounce off 224 before it breaks and we hit 221/220.... then I'll position long for 2500+ pips north.
  • #14,073
  • Edited 9:30am Nov 16, 2007 9:17am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Gnat
you will sure be better soon - and being long may help!!

Thanks Gnat .....Looks like the bulls have woken up now, I was beginning to wonder.
  • #14,074
  • Nov 16, 2007 9:45am Nov 16, 2007 9:45am
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Gnat .....Looks like the bulls have woken up now, I was beginning to wonder.
By now I guess Zoran is right and the 228 area may be a turning point. And I would love to see his predictions come true! Long for 2.500 pips is just so tempting, and I guess I can see what he means there. (Took me some time to be honest!). Good weekend to everybody and good health to you!

Ciao
Gnat
  • #14,075
  • Edited 2:12am Nov 17, 2007 2:06am | Edited 2:12am
I think longs should be careful. We have been in a declining wedge (red lines) for over a week. A break of 228.40 and a close, on at least the 4 hour candle, might confirm further upward movement but I will be favouring shorts if we fall out of this current channel (purple line).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Gone to a better place
  • #14,076
  • Nov 17, 2007 2:24pm Nov 17, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Gnat .....Looks like the bulls have woken up now, I was beginning to wonder.
Hey Wolf, good to see you alive and well!

I've been scratching my head lately and wonding why 224.00 has been so significant. I have the 78.6 level (on the daily) but I can't see too much else apart from support on other pairs.

So what do you see there? Please enlighten me.
  • #14,077
  • Nov 17, 2007 10:23pm Nov 17, 2007 10:23pm
Personally, I'm waiting for a break out. I really don't care which way it goes, as long as it takes me with it.
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  • #14,078
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:00am Nov 18, 2007 12:00am
Based upon the three FIB Expansions and trend lines, I would be looking for a retrace to the 234.50-235.00 area for a 61.8 Retrace on the last move down.

From there, if the 61.8 and trend line hold (yellow line), then I plan to short for the next downward move.

This Head and Shoulders is starting to play out, and with the right shoulder completing at the last attempt upward 241.35, we seen a sharp decline into the 3rd fibo move.

The green extension reveals the final upward move from left shoulder completing the head formation.

The red extension brings price down sharply to reveal the Bearish sentiment and the setup for the right shoulder.

The yellow extension which starts at the right shoulder reaches high 241.35 which is very near the same high as the left shoulder.

The first wick down on the green (red trend line) reaches 221.05 and the Red wick reaches the low of 219.30 (175 pips lower).

Now we wait for this move upwards, which the daily shows bullish, and see the fibo levels and the upper trend line (yellow).

I have four short targets, the 1st is at 221.05, which is the 61.8% extension of the move down we completed Friday.

2nd target is the 100% fibo extension at 217.55

3rd target is the 216.50

4th target is 209.50, in which I don't have alot of confidence reaching, this target would require a meltdown on the economy, which we seen what happens when the US puts out poor economical numbers.

And to top it off, there is a lot of news about oil reaching the 100.00 a barrel being the beginning of a bigger move upwards toward 200.00 a barrel.

To me, going long on a pair that will follow the UJ when it dives could be a very serious problem.

But as any analysis, they may and can be wrong at times. LOL

We will see more as the week progress's.

Enjoy the weekend.

Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,079
  • Edited 12:35pm Nov 18, 2007 9:39am | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting Zoran
Hey Wolf, good to see you alive and well!

I've been scratching my head lately and wonding why 224.00 has been so significant. I have the 78.6 level (on the daily) but I can't see too much else apart from support on other pairs.

So what do you see there? Please enlighten me.

Hey Zoran,.........don't know about enlighten you but I'll try (usually the other way around).

Firstly I'm not at all sure where we are going to go next, hell its all guesswork anyway allbeit marginally educated lol.

Some very nice analysis by Monarch too, so some good food for thought there.

The significance of 224 I believe (funnymental reasons aside) most probably stems from the consolidation and lows going back to 1986 - 1991 period and help from the near touch of a high 310806. (see Monthly chart)

In the shorter term (see1H chart) price is up against a declining T/L for the second time on friday so may/may not break it, also fridays D R1 . Found good support at S1 and we now have a double bottom.

So if price continue's I see it at least going to 231 were I have a Daily and 4H declining T/Ls. Monarch's prediction of 234.5 also meets with the weekly pivot of 234.03 and may turn out to be a rejection area. 235.5 another possible target which actually looks a good area midway between the monthly and weekly pivots.

Whether we go down from here or from a higher level which I think we will, I see your target area of 220 or possibly a bit lower 219 maybe? a good level of support (see weekly chart). I have the lower edge of a channel from the monthly chart and a declining T/l from 01021995 intersecting the high from 01081998 and lining up nicely for a drop in price that meets the lower side of the channel. If we break this level down to 213 then 208.

Personally I hope we stay long for one of the above targets (makes life so much easier if you don't have to change direction so often lol).

After the Reaching 220 -219 area I sure look forward to the 2500 pip ride north .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h 181107.gif Size: 42 KB
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  • #14,080
  • Nov 18, 2007 11:01am Nov 18, 2007 11:01am
Thank you Monarch and Wolf for your knowledgable and enlightening analysis. A bit of work there which put my short term analysis in the shade and rightly so but I had an idea my half-baked effort would bring something more useful to the thread... LOL
Gone to a better place
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