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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,041
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:53am Nov 11, 2007 8:53am
Hi guys, anyone think the news reports on Monday will keep pushing the GJ down?
  • #14,042
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:48pm Nov 11, 2007 12:48pm
[20:42:32] Zabi says: 1 minute GJ dropped 100 pips
[12:38:36 AM] Hibbiz says: from Friday's close
[20:51:59] Neil says: is the market open already?
[20:52:08] Thomas says: not here
[21:41:55] Hibbiz says: GJ at 230.22 now
[21:42:16] Hibbiz says: EJ 162.02
[21:42:33] Hibbiz says: GU 2.0843
[21:43:02] Hibbiz says: EU 1.467
  • #14,043
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:07pm Nov 11, 2007 2:07pm
Anyone think it will retrace? I am staying out at the moment
  • #14,044
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:28pm Nov 11, 2007 2:28pm
I was short and tp at 229.60 now long expecting a retrace to 230.5 before news on GBP later today. News will distort the move but a retrace to 234.5 is still on the move
  • #14,045
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:22pm Nov 11, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting Islander
Both the Dow an S&P are in 4 hrly TL....the S&P stalled at its 61.8% support of its rally from its August low of 1370. The Dow at about 55% of its rally at a 261.8 extension. IF they can hold, then a bounce in UJ / GJ should happen.
Islander, u maybe right. however, i just wouldnt believe. that will happen every soon. Because this run has some fundamental changes. Thursday was the day for ECB and BOE rate decision. And the fall is just a day after it! And if u check current daily chart... it looks more nasty correction would come to format a trading pattern.

So u r shorting, dont close it too quick. i still have one short in running from2520, which i got it in its small 30 mins rebouncing range---

The only,and very big problem to me of this kind drop, once u closed one position. Any further re-entry is just killing me because each small drops makes the risk/reward ratio worse and worse. and any rebounce can be very nasty.... So big days like friday, is good but not the best for me
  • #14,046
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:33pm Nov 11, 2007 3:33pm
post a chart as wolf and rum requested.
I am not very much a chart person. And i only use RSI and Momentum as indicator. daily chart, hourly chart and 15min chart are what i using.
wolf, York is a very nice place for life, mate! i am living in london
i am a lazy person, rarely using sreenshot... so no complaint about my chart, ok?
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  • #14,047
  • Nov 11, 2007 4:13pm Nov 11, 2007 4:13pm
closed my last short now
  • #14,048
  • Nov 11, 2007 4:17pm Nov 11, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting Zoran
My bias is short (longer term) but I am expecting a retracement now (not a reversal) so I am long for it. Here is some strong support I see.

1. We have just completed a bullish bat with the fib levels lining up nicely.
2. The consolisation in Sept produced a triangle and we are at the apex.
3. Price has pierced a few strong trendlines but a break is not conclusive as yet.
4. We have also reached medium to strong support levels on other pairs.

So Sunday could see a bit more down but I will expect a bounce somewhere within that bottom grey shaded area that starts at the apex of the triangle. Since these points live on the daily, we should see a reasonable bounce and some consolidation around this area before continuing to fall. Now the only thing that will break it easily is panic selling so I am prepared to accept a slap on the face and reverse should that be the case.

I expect the retracement to hit the 235 region or just below. First target and stops set to BE+1 at 232.8. Chart attached.

Hi Zoran,
Seems that the chart did not attach properly. Can u please try attaching it again? Thank you.
  • #14,049
  • Edited 11:26pm Nov 12, 2007 1:58am | Edited 11:26pm
So far GJ has stopped at its Weekly S1 and UJ at its Daily S1 and both are attempting to retrace, GJ being held back by cable which has just put in a slightly lower low at 2.0762 in front of its PPI data.

Cable has a weekend gap in the 2.0890 / daily M2 area to fill and GJ a gap to around its daily M2 at 231.20. UJ has already filled its gap.

Both GJ & UJ had low to low time lines in their last candle and as their fall has stalled, a bounce is more probable into the high to high TL which falls on the Thursday 16:00 CET candle (10am est) +/- 1 candle

With the forementioned assumption, then I see a bounce towards the 50% retrace at 234.40. With the MS1 at 233.22 as the lower target and the MM2 of 235.84, the 61.8% level and the upper line of the APF as its upper target....TWT.

Edit: Time did tell us that the low was not in! The move continued down for two more candles to 224.18. This now makes the 38% retrace 231.30 ~ = to the gap.
The 50% retrace is at 232.80
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,050
  • Nov 12, 2007 1:59am Nov 12, 2007 1:59am
I'll try again to attach the chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,051
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:34am Nov 12, 2007 3:34am
The long on the retrace obviously didn't work well and the market came back to give me a slap on the face. I did reverse net short but I was several hundred pips down by that time (on multiples). My bias is still short and I will add to shorts on a retrace. Target is 221.

Also, it seems that FF is having problems with displaying charts. You need to reload (sometimes a few times) to get them up.
  • #14,052
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:35am Nov 12, 2007 4:35am
Quoting Zoran
The long on the retrace obviously didn't work well and the market came back to give me a slap on the face. I did reverse net short but I was several hundred pips down by that time (on multiples). My bias is still short and I will add to shorts on a retrace. Target is 221.

Also, it seems that FF is having problems with displaying charts. You need to reload (sometimes a few times) to get them up.
Mate, this entire week is filled with financial reports.. still looking bearish. Sell on rallies - remember HSBC is due on wednesday with their 1 billion $ loss report.. if it comes out much more.. should be a good continuation of shorts.

Edit - Your GU short looking good as always Zoran
  • #14,053
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:07am Nov 12, 2007 7:07am
Quoting VishalJ
Mate, this entire week is filled with financial reports.. still looking bearish. Sell on rallies - remember HSBC is due on wednesday with their 1 billion $ loss report.. if it comes out much more.. should be a good continuation of shorts.

Edit - Your GU short looking good as always Zoran
Yeah, I thought I'd be smart and get a few pips on the long but that cost me. The cable short closed for a little over 500 pips but I was also caught on a retracement attempt so full profit was not realised.

Agreed with your view, my bias is short and I'll be loading more on the rallies (as suggested).... GJ target is 221.
  • #14,054
  • Edited 3:15am Nov 13, 2007 1:41am | Edited 3:15am
Whilst yesterdays 4hr time line was a couple of bars out, it was also a daily TL...the next daily TL is on Friday.

Here's my 4hr chart updated, the suggested EW targets for a W4 are the 38% or 50% retrace to 4?, followewd by a fall into Fridays low to low TL....IF it has a stronger and longer bounce, then 4?? into Friday is a possibility - also a 4hr high to high TL - on the top APF line. TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,055
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:17am Nov 13, 2007 3:17am
IŽll try again to attach the chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,056
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:24pm Nov 13, 2007 4:24pm
I'm currently looking for a place to reverse this retracement and continue south to target. Target is currently 221 and I am thinking the retracement could go to 231.5. There seems to be quite a bit of resistance in that area. I wouldn't expect it to go much higher than 232.7. Expected reversal is somewhere within the orange shaded area.
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  • #14,057
  • Edited 12:57am Nov 14, 2007 12:27am | Edited 12:57am
This retrace is proving to be stronger and faster than I suggested in my previous post and I have modified my chart to take this into account.

The GJ weekend gap has been now been filled, BUT cable's gap is still open at 2.0894, also its 61.8% retrace - some 80 pips above the current high.

UJ has been pulled up by yesterdays 280+ rally in the Dow and the Dow Futures are currently +20. UJ is forming a Bearish Butterfly or Crab on its hourly chart with its upper level at 112.00 - 50 pips above its high so far.

The higher green target area includes the Weekly Pivot at 234.00, the weekly 5sma and the 61.8% retrace at 234.75.

Over the next three days there are numerous data announcements, so plenty of potential to change the market's sentiment. Price could consolidate and move sideways into the lower green target area with a high up to the 50% retrace at 232.65, OR in the absence of any negative data move to the higher green area into the next time line due later tomorrow / early Friday.

Either would allow for a drop into the red T/L which comes in next week.

TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,058
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:38am Nov 14, 2007 2:38am
I think it will go down again... but not sure if it can break the h&s pattern.... carry trades could be back since the interest rates are maintained... something very bad should have to happen to gbp or us... before it...
  • #14,059
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:58pm Nov 14, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting Zoran
I'm currently looking for a place to reverse this retracement and continue south to target. Target is currently 221 and I am thinking the retracement could go to 231.5. There seems to be quite a bit of resistance in that area. I wouldn't expect it to go much higher than 232.7. Expected reversal is somewhere within the orange shaded area.
Update on the post above (posted yesterday).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post1713305

Looks like we have reversed within the expected orange shaded area and going as high as 232.39. I am now targeting 221.

There is a potential 1000+ pips from the reversal point. Strong support is sitting on 220.52 (purple line at the bottom). It could be a bumpy ride down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,060
  • Nov 14, 2007 7:38pm Nov 14, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting Zoran
Update on the post above (posted yesterday).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post1713305

Looks like we have reversed within the expected orange shaded area and going as high as 232.39. I am now targeting 221.

There is a potential 1000+ pips from the reversal point. Strong support is sitting on 220.52 (purple line at the bottom). It could be a bumpy ride down.
LOL and the funny thing is about 75-80% of OANDA's traders are long with G/J... I've noticed something... in the long run the majority isn't in the right direction. Let's hope it holds true = P
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