Daily Cable Analysis | Page 407 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily Cable Analysis

  • #8,121
  • Edited 7:03pm Nov 14, 2007 6:42pm | Edited 7:03pm
With this Hourly candle I am looking for a close above 2.0541 for the upwards strength, we still have 20 minutes before this candle closes.

2.0553 is the 23.6% retrace, break above this we should see the 38.2 Level at 2.0584 in the coming hours before Frank and London.

UPDATE: Hourly candle closed at 2.0540, which is not my preference for a move up, will watch a spike up and take exit in this candle.

CLOSED TRADE with +10 pips, WILL re-evaluate prior to Frank/London.

Price is holding under here which shows a possible move to low once again.
  • #8,122
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:50pm Nov 14, 2007 6:50pm
Hi Monarch,

I see you have one of your fibs at 2.0203. That's where i have my 1st buy stop. 30 pips above 154 sma on daily. Why 154, cos it worked for me, lol.

If it ever gets there in the near future, E/U might have come back a bit as well. Anyway, i'm only left with 1 trade, riding gy from 231.43 to 225.1.

Good trading.
Still waters run deep
  • #8,123
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:52pm Nov 14, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting Scrat
50% is not a fibo level.
it's the most important level
  • #8,124
  • Nov 14, 2007 7:41pm Nov 14, 2007 7:41pm
Quoting Scrat
50% is not a fibo level.
Thanks for the info, will call it the median level then.

chat with ya later.

Ken
  • #8,125
  • Nov 14, 2007 9:17pm Nov 14, 2007 9:17pm
Actually I find the 50% thingy to be more accurately defined as a Zone which runs between 46.5% & 53.5%.
AND, If you agree, once you realize that, you can reverse engineer it to formulate an opinion that, perhaps, current consolidation is in the 46 to 53 % range of the current move.

Bet that made you dizzy... : ...

Just my opinion.
  • #8,126
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:18am Nov 15, 2007 4:18am
Quoting monarch
So far the GU has completed the expected 50% level which I was showing the past few days.

Every move has been in accordance with the FIBO levels from Post #8105.

Fibo Levels:
High - 2.1160
Low - 2.0521

50% - 2.0841 (completed today)

Move down from 2.0841 back through the 38.2 and finding support at the 23.6% at 2.0672.

Price will move up to the 38.2% at 2.0765 to find resistance before it comes back down to re-test the Low at 2.0521 once again.

If the Low is breached, I have two targets on the FIBO Expansion at:
61.8% 2.0449
100% 2.0205

These targets will only become important if the breach of the low happens at 2.0521

I will do the Daily Update in 6 hours.

Ken
The Low at 2.0521 was breached during yesterday's NY closing, with a retracement of almost 100 pips, the move finds the break of the low and presses downward to the first FIB EXPANSION Target of 2.0449 as per post #8106 Projection.

Next Target level would be a continuation downward to the 2.0205 line.

Price is finding support at 2.0449 for now, will be watching breach of this area.
This is not a trade recomendation, but my daily analysis.
  • #8,127
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:40am Nov 15, 2007 4:40am
Hi Monarch,

There is a big fibo support at 2.0407

being 50%
Low 1.9650 17/08/07
High 2.1160 9/11/07

Also S1 Monthly Pivot support at 2.0419
S3 Weekly Pivot support at 2.0402
S1 Daily Pivot support at 2.0401

Furthermore, looks like 5 waves down from 2.0843 top.

Its due for a pause or turn UP?
imvho
  • #8,128
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:55am Nov 15, 2007 4:55am
Quoting fxdoc
Hi Monarch,

There is a big fibo support at 2.0407

being 50%
Low 1.9650 17/08/07
High 2.1160 9/11/07

Also S1 Monthly Pivot support at 2.0419
S3 Weekly Pivot support at 2.0402
S1 Daily Pivot support at 2.0401

Furthermore, looks like 5 waves down from 2.0843 top.

Its due for a pause or turn UP?
imvho
Very nice, thank you for the info.

I can see the 2.0450 area being very strong here, if it breaks below though, I would expect the next target at 2.0205 or even 2.0160 area.

But that is only "IF" it breaks, we could find this strong support area here and bounce upwards easily - the GU likes UP. LOL
  • #8,129
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:17am Nov 15, 2007 7:17am
Further to my earlier Post #8125

GBPUSD weekly chart is forming an Evening Doji Star.
The Doji increases the potential, and possibly the severity of the reversal signal, targetting possibly under 2!

Today could be an important pivotal day for Cable.

Gann said to double the low to get the high.
The 1984 low in cable was 1.0520.
2.1160 area could be a big high !?
  • #8,130
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:01am Nov 15, 2007 10:01am
Quoting fxdoc
Further to my earlier Post #8125

GBPUSD weekly chart is forming an Evening Doji Star.
The Doji increases the potential, and possibly the severity of the reversal signal, targetting possibly under 2!

Today could be an important pivotal day for Cable.

Gann said to double the low to get the high.
The 1984 low in cable was 1.0520.
2.1160 area could be a big high !?
Hey Thanks for that, I am watching this on a micro view of the daily, but I do have a monthly and weekly setup.

I will place this information on those charts and do some calculations.

Ken
  • #8,131
  • Nov 16, 2007 1:44am Nov 16, 2007 1:44am
Further to my earlier Post #8125

2.0404 Low show a completed 5 wave structure from 2.0843 top.
If market is to remain bearish, expect an ABC retracement ideally to the previous 4th wave area between 2.0504 - 2.0617

38.2% = 2.0572 = Day Pivot R1 at 2.0571 = 78.6% (lastl 5th wave)
50% = 2.0624
61.8% = 2.0676

If the market develop a bearish ABC this would define the Day Range High ideal for a short position. If very bearish ABC will be shallow.
  • #8,132
  • Nov 16, 2007 2:33pm Nov 16, 2007 2:33pm
Further to my earlier Post #8129

The extended 5th wave turned out to be more complex.
The congestion 2.04 - 2.05 was only the smaller 4th of the 5th wave.
In fact I was surprised to see a terminating diagonal triangle coming to rest at 2.0404 for the bearish scenario - but it turned out to be only the (b).

So in actual fact, the Low for the 5 wave structure is 2.0352 not 2,0404.
No change in principle for the ABC retracement if market remains bearish,
expect an ABC retracement ideally to the previous 4th wave area between 2.0504 - 2.0617 as before.
Ratios are now :
38.2% = 2.0540
50% = 2.0597
61.8% = 2.0656

Why the base at 2.0352 ?
It correspond to 78.6% (few pips) of the previous wave structure (2.1160 to 2.0523).
78.6% is a common ratio found in Cable swings.
0.786 is the square root of 0.618
  • #8,133
  • Edited 4:49pm Nov 16, 2007 3:33pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting fxdoc
Further to my earlier Post #8125

GBPUSD weekly chart is forming an Evening Doji Star.
The Doji increases the potential, and possibly the severity of the reversal signal, targetting possibly under 2!

Today could be an important pivotal day for Cable.

Gann said to double the low to get the high.
The 1984 low in cable was 1.0520.
2.1160 area could be a big high !?
The week has ended, and the Evening Doji Star is confirmed.

QUESTION : is the pattern a wave sequence of 1 , 2 - 1 , 2 ??? IF so, this is very bearish.....
RISK : the pattern down from 2.1160 could be an ABC ???
RESPONSE : watch-out next week !!!
  • #8,134
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:01am Nov 18, 2007 12:01am
I would like to start this Analysis with a story of Historical reference.

Last year during this time, the weekend prior to Thanksgiving.

The market had just come off a 4 week Bull Run and the price had come up to the 1.9142 HIGH that was set in July 2006.

Then the week leading up to the holidays in the USA after the test of this high, there was a downward move to 1.8834 to find support.

I remember watching during my vacation time and enjoying a very nice time with family and eating a feast of a meal, while the GU took off with vibrance.

WOW - the market had been on fire, and the Forex Factory was alive, all of the traders were analyzing the GU to death, and coming up with only one solution - THE US MARKET was out to lunch and the BRITS were eating the Turkey.

It was a breakout to remember, one that caught me by surprise ripping my money from my sweaty hands as I was shorting thinking it was just a small spike upwards.

Finally after two weeks of the Bull Run and a Gap of over 136 pips between the weekend, there was a period of a 18 weeks where the GU found a range of 730 pips.

There is lots of opportunity in a ranging market, the FIB's, trend lines, supp/res lines all come into play, and this was the point of the greatest learning I have ever had in the FOREX Market.

You see, all traders are born losers, so to speak. We start on a path of discouragement, frustration, short tempers, and short lived excitement.

We all face the cruel hand of the Market, and we have all given our share of pips back to the greedy grinch that stole THANKSGIVING.

It is now HIGH TIME we learn from our mistakes, and never again misunderstand the depth of moves that could take place before our eyes.

From that breakout last Thanksgiving at 1.9142, we have long since left that lofty point to soar with eagles and to prosper from the developments of the US Economy that started way before these past few months.

2,018 pips higher from that ever so long ago high, we are now in the 2's that all of us said "will it make it or not?" It was a BULL RUN that would last for a YEAR, and now we stand on the threshold of a new era.

We can look back now on history and see a very high 'HIGH" standing before us at 2.4530 and say, NO WAY CAN IT EVER GET THERE, but then again, I stood one year ago and said, My Analysis says it can reach 2.0800, and it reached further then that.

So Friends, this is the week before Thanksgiving, and were here at a time that the GU looks to be very BEARISH on the Monthly chart, and we are preparing to feast once again.

The question for us all is "Am I a better trader now then one year ago?"

I hope that we have all learned and matured in our trading strategies and behavior habits that seem to get the best of us you face defeat.

I for one have learned a great deal, and it has been more about overcoming my emotions then trying to make a pip, and in 1 years time FOREX has become a fun place to make money, and The Forex Factory a great place to hang out chatting with all the great traders.

Let's finish the year of 2007 with thankfulness.

KEN
  • #8,135
  • Nov 18, 2007 12:15am Nov 18, 2007 12:15am
Okay, here is my analysis that is still showing some retracement do upwards, near the 2.0631, which is a resistance line on the weekly chart dating to the high on 7/22/2007.

Were looking at a very strong trend upwards, one that would need some very bad economical news from G.B. and Europe.

I will post several charts to break this down.

The first chart is a weekly showing the trend upwards.

By the way, the upper trend line that runs across the HIGH 1.9847 which was during the Thanksgiving time I just spoke of.

It was here the market was showing strong bullish behaviour.

CHART #1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU DAILY.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #8,136
  • Nov 18, 2007 1:05am Nov 18, 2007 1:05am
This is the Daily chart showing Fibo Levels.

The first Fibo was from the High at 2.1160 to the Low at 2.0521, it retraced to the 50% mark at 2.0841, and completed this fibo.

The second Fibo starts at 2.0843 that goes to the recent Low at 2.0352, I have the 50% retrace going to 2.0598.

Once this level is completed, the 100% Fibo Expansion from the first Fibo numbers is a Low at 2.0189.

If you ran a Fibo Extension from the high 2.1160 to the low 2.0521, you would have the 161.8% move to 2.0134, which is seen on the chart.

Also there was a major gap on the weekly chart dating 9/16/2007 and 9/23/2007, I am expecting this to support on this move down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU DAILY #2.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #8,137
  • Nov 18, 2007 1:56am Nov 18, 2007 1:56am
Hi,
Monarch this the first I read your analysis and I am really impressed, like you are inside my mind.
  • #8,138
  • Nov 18, 2007 2:05am Nov 18, 2007 2:05am
Quoting l_khuzaei
Hi,
Monarch this the first I read your analysis and I am really impressed, like you are inside my mind.
It seems that most traders face the same mental struggles in this race for the finish line.

Hopefully we can work together and find the surest path to success.

Your analyis is welcome, feel free to add your thoughts.

Ken
  • #8,139
  • Edited 2:18pm Nov 18, 2007 2:31am | Edited 2:18pm
Thanks for restarting GU Analysis on this thread. Looking forward to ur Posts!
  • #8,140
  • Nov 18, 2007 3:24pm Nov 18, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting monarch
I would like to start this Analysis with a story of Historical reference.

Last year during this time, the weekend prior to Thanksgiving.

The market had just come off a 4 week Bull Run and the price had come up to the 1.9142 HIGH that was set in July 2006.

Then the week leading up to the holidays in the USA after the test of this high, there was a downward move to 1.8834 to find support.

I remember watching during my vacation time and enjoying a very nice time with family and eating a feast of a meal, while the GU took off with vibrance.

WOW - the market had been on fire, and the Forex Factory was alive, all of the traders were analyzing the GU to death, and coming up with only one solution - THE US MARKET was out to lunch and the BRITS were eating the Turkey.

It was a breakout to remember, one that caught me by surprise ripping my money from my sweaty hands as I was shorting thinking it was just a small spike upwards.

Finally after two weeks of the Bull Run and a Gap of over 136 pips between the weekend, there was a period of a 18 weeks where the GU found a range of 730 pips.

There is lots of opportunity in a ranging market, the FIB's, trend lines, supp/res lines all come into play, and this was the point of the greatest learning I have ever had in the FOREX Market.

You see, all traders are born losers, so to speak. We start on a path of discouragement, frustration, short tempers, and short lived excitement.

We all face the cruel hand of the Market, and we have all given our share of pips back to the greedy grinch that stole THANKSGIVING.

It is now HIGH TIME we learn from our mistakes, and never again misunderstand the depth of moves that could take place before our eyes.

From that breakout last Thanksgiving at 1.9142, we have long since left that lofty point to soar with eagles and to prosper from the developments of the US Economy that started way before these past few months.

2,018 pips higher from that ever so long ago high, we are now in the 2's that all of us said "will it make it or not?" It was a BULL RUN that would last for a YEAR, and now we stand on the threshold of a new era.

We can look back now on history and see a very high 'HIGH" standing before us at 2.4530 and say, NO WAY CAN IT EVER GET THERE, but then again, I stood one year ago and said, My Analysis says it can reach 2.0800, and it reached further then that.

So Friends, this is the week before Thanksgiving, and were here at a time that the GU looks to be very BEARISH on the Monthly chart, and we are preparing to feast once again.

The question for us all is "Am I a better trader now then one year ago?"

I hope that we have all learned and matured in our trading strategies and behavior habits that seem to get the best of us you face defeat.

I for one have learned a great deal, and it has been more about overcoming my emotions then trying to make a pip, and in 1 years time FOREX has become a fun place to make money, and The Forex Factory a great place to hang out chatting with all the great traders.

Let's finish the year of 2007 with thankfulness.

KEN
Thank you Ken for all you do to help us all be better traders and to improve our skills as we strive to work out our kinks (emotional,technical and the world.) I come away from FF with a greater education every day.
Nikki
2 traders viewing now