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666 - My Personal Journey Out of Hell

  • #21
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:12pm Dec 28, 2006 8:12pm
My own system triggered a buy signal on AUDUSD earlier today. For now I will just call my system 'My System' hehehe

29 Dec 06 - 6:32pm ET
Method: My System
Currency: AUDUSD Daily
Entry: Long @ 0.7911
S/L: 0.7742
T/P: ??

I am a bit concerned about this entry as AUD has already been trending long for a while, but will stick to the rules.
My system is meant to ride trends, offering the opportunity to jump in and out as the trend fluctuates. Because this system is meant for longer periods of time, the stop loss is usually going to be quite large - I will have plenty of warning in most cases if the trade turns against me as a sell-signal will generate long before the S/L is hit (unless Australia suddenly sinks or some strange disease turns everybody there into brain-eating Zombies).

My T/P point is also generated on a signal. Let's see this baby go through the roof! I have a lot of ground to regain...
  • #22
  • Edited Dec 29, 2006 7:08am Dec 28, 2006 10:24pm | Edited Dec 29, 2006 7:08am
I have been asked to explain the mechanics of my system. While this thread wasn't intended to discuss the system itself, for those who are interested I have attached a microsoft word file that should explain it.

I also want to mention that I have refined my entry as well as my exit. I would expect to be able to add at least 150 pips per pair (probably more) to the results I posted earlier.

This system is in experimental stages only. While I am confident that it is profitable, USE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

-------------

Create the following moving averages, all should be applied to Weighted Close (HLCC/4):

3 & 5 (both are red)
7, 9, 11, 13, 15 (yellow)

This will create the 'yellow' rainbow or wave which represents the traders.

Create the following MA's, again with the same Weighted Close:

30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60 (all green).

This green rainbow represents the 'Investors' and is much more stable (longer term).

Create two separate CCI's, both applied to the Close, one at period 14 (red) and the other at period 55 (aqua).


That's it!

Any questions ask here for fire off a PM!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daemien's System Example.doc   269 KB | 506 downloads
  • #23
  • Dec 29, 2006 8:33am Dec 29, 2006 8:33am
Quoting Daemien
I have been asked to explain the mechanics of my system. While this thread wasn't intended to discuss the system itself, for those who are interested I have attached a microsoft word file that should explain it.

I also want to mention that I have refined my entry as well as my exit. I would expect to be able to add at least 150 pips per pair (probably more) to the results I posted earlier.

This system is in experimental stages only. While I am confident that it is profitable, USE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

-------------

Create the following moving averages, all should be applied to Weighted Close (HLCC/4):

3 & 5 (both are red)
7, 9, 11, 13, 15 (yellow)

This will create the 'yellow' rainbow or wave which represents the traders.

Create the following MA's, again with the same Weighted Close:

30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60 (all green).

This green rainbow represents the 'Investors' and is much more stable (longer term).

Create two separate CCI's, both applied to the Close, one at period 14 (red) and the other at period 55 (aqua).


That's it!

Any questions ask here for fire off a PM!!
isn't this what guppy moving averages are?? YOu have short term and long term...
  • #24
  • Dec 29, 2006 9:18am Dec 29, 2006 9:18am
Hi Hilmy,

Yes, this system is based on GMMA's. The two CCI's give pretty clear indications on where to buy & sell - much clearer in my opinion for those who aren't familiar with the nuances of GMMA's.

This is just the method I am forward testing - there is nothing particularly unique or proprietary about it but I feel it will be profitable in the long run. This also give me more exposure to GMMA's - perhaps over time I will find the CCI's to be less necessary...

Happy trading,
  • #25
  • Jan 2, 2007 10:12am Jan 2, 2007 10:12am
AUD continues to grow strongly - up +64 pips at the moment!

USDCAD had a buy trigger early this morning utilizing my own method. Opposite of AUDUSD I know, but again, sticking with my system for now!!

Actually this extended holiday gave me time to think. I will trade my system 100% sticking to rules until I have 15-20 trades under my belt. Then I will analyze each trade to see what I have to change. With this in mind, I am only utilizing the method I described earlier and basic technicals for momentum/trend trading. It is too hard to follow 3 or more systems at once.

1 Jan 07 - 5:35am ET (yes I was up this early - couldn't sleep
Method: My System
Currency: USDCAD
Entry: Long @ 1.1657
S/L: 1.1417

Watch List

USDCHF - Breakdown after ten days of trending sideways. Major fib support close to breakdown @ 1.2121. If it breaks through, will enter short position based on momentum trade indicators.

Also have a couple of currencies that have broken the +100 CCI(14) level. If they are still triggered at the end of tomorrows close, will enter!

Also, I would not advise anybody to trade based on my signals - I should have made this clear at the beginning of this journal. I am testing a few different trading methods on a demo account before I go live to make sure both my methods & abilities are up to snuff.

Happy holidays everybody - a round of positive pips on the house!
  • #26
  • Jan 2, 2007 5:48pm Jan 2, 2007 5:48pm
Both open positions AUDUSD & USDCAD stop-losses brought to 100 pips below yesterday's open.

AUDUSD S/L: 0.7837

USDCAD S/L: 1.1538


EURUSD & GBPUSD both closed above the +100 CCI(14) line. Buy stops placed at 10 pips above yesterday's close for both currencies.

Happy pippin'!
  • #27
  • Jan 3, 2007 1:54pm Jan 3, 2007 1:54pm
USDCAD is looking good and is approaching my T/P level of 1.1720 (just below 188% fib). Placed a 15 pip trailing stop as it is still gaining ground.

Both EURUSD & GBPUSD buy stops were activated yesterday around 7:30pm. They hovered around that area and then tanked this morning, triggering my stop losses. Total loss between the two is -340pips.

I am already seeing areas for improvement - moving to breakeven much sooner (maybe 50pips profit) would go a long way to protecting my entries. AUDUSD was up yesterday, but now stands in the negative. Candlesticks show a possible reversal of trend (engulfing bear) based on today's unclosed candle. Will wait for end of day to confirm and make my decision on whether to close this position then.

Total P/L: -715

lol

Again, this method in backtesting did well in riding the long-term trends. Looks like I will have to optimize my exits in order to preserve capital in the shorter market hickups.

Oh well.. that's why I am doing this

I will consider EUR & GBP to be my 2nd & 3rd positions entered for my method. Only 12 more to go before I make some changes (definitely not waiting for 20 with this track record lmao).
  • #28
  • Jan 3, 2007 8:09pm Jan 3, 2007 8:09pm
USDCAD stopped out this evening @ 1.1721 for a profit of +64pips.


Total P/L: -651

A small step for Daemien-kind....

AUDUSD still open as sell wasn't triggered. Hopefully it will just be a bounce off the MA wave.
  • #29
  • Jan 4, 2007 5:15pm Jan 4, 2007 5:15pm
AUDUSD didn't recover and was stopped out at 0.7837 for a loss of -74pips.

Total P/L: -725

USDCHF has broken out and triggered a buy.

Trade #4
5 Jan 07 - 6:05ET
Method: My System
Currency: USDCHF
Entry: Long @ 1.2328
S/L: 1.2201

This is depressing lol. I definitely have to find a way to cut the losses short (lowering S/L). Will be analyzing the historical charts to see if anything can be done after this testing round.

Daemien
  • #30
  • Jan 6, 2007 8:15am Jan 6, 2007 8:15am
After much consideration, I am going to cut this test short. This is a great example of how backtesting & reality do not coincide.

This may have just been a bad few weeks for this particular method, but I really do not want to continue with one that puts so many pips on the line so quickly. I thought (from backtesting) that I would have a more clear indication of when to close a trade; the reality is that most of these have tanked before my exit trigger.

The only other option would be to try to refine the exit strategy - I have, however, been forward testing another system (thanks Steviet) that fits my lifestyle & looks extremely positive, and am considering a weekly system as well (compliments of tkimble). Why bother trying to recreate the wheel

Daemien
  • #31
  • Jan 6, 2007 1:41pm Jan 6, 2007 1:41pm
Hi,
Quoting Daemien
This is a great example of how backtesting & reality do not coincide.
I've seen systems double their maximum drawdown percentage between 100 and 200 trades (for a single currency) so I don't believe 12 trades gives you sufficient information to determine a systems drawdown and performance characteristics.

I believe that if you had 200 trades for your system for a single currency, then your current trading results for that currency would fall within the previous 200 trades.

Best regards
Alan
  • #32
  • Jan 7, 2007 2:10pm Jan 7, 2007 2:10pm
Hi Firehorse - thanks for the reply.

I agree that 12 trades is not sufficient to give overall method performance. When I backtested my losses were nowhere near as great as when I tried it live. It is clear to me that the false breakouts that my entry signals were giving puts me beyond my comfort zone and points out a flaw in what I thought was going to be a simple, profitable method - especially since my exit signals were not appearing as quickly as I thought they would (again referring to my backtesting). I still believe it may be profitable overall (a lot less than my test results I think), but I believe there are systems already tested that will have better stop-loss risk/reward potential for me.

The only reason I even tried this out was because I was having a hard time finding a good, proven daily strategy that I could implement considering I work 9-5. Found this by accident to be honest when I was playing around with GMMA's & had some other indicators on the chart

I have to say, as embarassing as it was posting here, it kept me honest hehehe. Also made me do all the work of logging every trade; something I think I would be a bit lazy following through with on my own at this point..



Take care, and may all your pips be positive!!!

Daemien



Quoting firehorse
Hi,I've seen systems double their maximum drawdown percentage between 100 and 200 trades (for a single currency) so I don't believe 12 trades gives you sufficient information to determine a systems drawdown and performance characteristics.

I believe that if you had 200 trades for your system for a single currency, then your current trading results for that currency would fall within the previous 200 trades.

Best regards
Alan
  • #33
  • Jan 7, 2007 3:08pm Jan 7, 2007 3:08pm
Damien, how do you account for the discrepancy between the performance when backtesting and live testing?
  • #34
  • Jan 7, 2007 4:27pm Jan 7, 2007 4:27pm
My exit trigger was 55cci crossing back over 100 towards 0. In back testing I used the the first candle that touched the 100 line (or the one right after if it was in between). In reality I think it took the candle after this to drag it through and fully cross - this resulted in a lot more pips lost by the time I exited.

Also I was extremely careful and took a long time in my analysis, but I was probably looking at everything through 'rose coloured glasses' (I thought I was being conservative).

Also of consideration is that the market was extremely weak before Christmas when I started my live testing. More of a market problem than a system/backtesting one but it definitely didn't help. The end result is that I would rather move forward with a proven system than test my own.... I thought it would be a good idea at the time.

Take care,

Daemien

  • #35
  • Jan 8, 2007 2:40am Jan 8, 2007 2:40am
I seriously don't think you should dismiss your method based on the data you have gathered thus far - especially as its from one of the most illiquid periods you can get (probably the most illiquid)!

Based on that it was likely to be "whippy" and lots of fakeouts etc. I would continue your journal until the end of Jan and then reevaluate it again! Adjust a few things based on your experience and then apply them to Feb. To find and implement something that "fits" you/your personality takes time and patience.

"Many of life's failures are people who did not realise how close they were to success when they gave up"
_____________ Kavs Make It Happen For Yourself
  • #36
  • Jan 8, 2007 6:36am Jan 8, 2007 6:36am
Daemien, remember the Principles of Trading you adopted???

Principles of Trading:

- Preserve Capital
- Establish goals
- Define rules of trading that work, and stick with them
- Believe in yourself and your 'system'
- Make consistent profits
- Check greed, ego and fear at the door
- Become emotionally disciplined
- Play the market; don't let the market play you
- Most importantly, take time in your day for other personal endeavours & family!


Keep going until the end of the month.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #37
  • Apr 6, 2007 1:13pm Apr 6, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting andersenws
Daemien, remember the Principles of Trading you adopted???

Principles of Trading:

- Preserve Capital
- Establish goals
- Define rules of trading that work, and stick with them
- Believe in yourself and your 'system'
- Make consistent profits
- Check greed, ego and fear at the door
- Become emotionally disciplined
- Play the market; don't let the market play you
- Most importantly, take time in your day for other personal endeavours & family!


Keep going until the end of the month.

andersenws
Plus the market is allways wright
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #38
  • Last Post: Apr 6, 2007 1:35pm Apr 6, 2007 1:35pm
is that a play on words?

Quoting semar
Plus the market is allways wright
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