666 - My Personal Journey Out of Hell | Forex Factory

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666 - My Personal Journey Out of Hell

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 24, 2006 10:04am Dec 24, 2006 10:04am
Hello everybody!

First off, I would like to introduce myself. I am 39 years old and a father of two children (3 & 5). I am pursuing alternate means of income due to my limited retirement funding. As I am moving up in years, survival at an older age becomes more of a worry as I'm sure many of you will agree with. I traded sporadically quite a while ago but quit due to lack of capital. My knowledge of technical trading isn't too bad, altho I am learning more every day (thanks to this site I might add).

The purpose of this journal is keep track of my progress in FX trading with the aim of 'keeping me honest'. I feel that exposing my trading on these forums will force me to live up to a higher standard (I don't want to look like a goof altho I'm sure that is somewhere in my future hehehe).

I have been considering a number of methods and have nailed down a long-term 'investment' style that I manually backtested on a bunch of pairs over the last couple of days. I am also looking at a few shorter term (daily) types to keep me active and learning. Not sure what yet but will probably make my decision next week.

I hope everybody is having a fantastic holiday (for those who get one) and Merry Christmas to ALL!!!
  • #2
  • Edited 10:37am Dec 24, 2006 10:32am | Edited 10:37am
For now I will not be posting my method, but if anybody is interested, here are the results for the four pairs I manually backtested.

As I said, these were MANUALLY backtested. For each entry & exit I considered many factors, the previous few days chart, the long/short term trend, etc. I wanted to mirror the reality of these trades live as closely as possible. In pretty well every case I took a conservative approach to my movements. For example, I left a lot of pips on the table after entry/exit signals by waiting for the NEXT DAY's candle to close and making my move from there. This was to simulate the possibility that I may not get to the computer until later in the evening (after close). The reality is if I could have monitored the trades more closely while they were live, I'm sure I would have made up to 100pips or more profit than what I am posting.

Here are the results: 1 Jan 2006 to 22 Dec 2006

My system is done on a DAILY chart!

AUD/USD:

Was good trading both long & short even tho it was only in a very slight up-trend for the year.

Total Trades: 12
Gains/Losses: 8/4

Largest Gain : +157
Largest Loss : -75

Total Gain : +533


GBP/USD:

Trending down until May, then strong up-trend for rest of year.

Total Trades: 12
Gains/Losses: 3/9

Largest Gain : +892
Largest Loss : -233

Total Gain : +669

Not bad for only 3/9 win ratio. If I had only traded WITH trend my total gain for the year would have been +1281


EUR/USD

Was good trading both long & short even tho it was in a fairly strong up-trend for the year.

Total Trades: 13
Gains/Losses: 8/5

Largest Gain : +504
Largest Loss : -148

Total Gain : +884

Works out about the same if I had only traded long (+887). The trend wouldn't have been established for a while anyways if trading this year live.


EUR/JPY:

Was good trading both long & short even tho it was in a strong up-trend for the year.

Total Trades: 12
Gains/Losses: 8/4

Largest Gain : +551
Largest Loss : -65

Total Gain : +883

Losses on this pair were relatively small for the year.


So there you go. My strategy on four pairs for the year 2006.

Total Pips for 2006 on four pairs: +2971

Not bad?? I really don't have a reference so any feedback would be appreciated (seems good to me!

Again, keep in mind that I was EXTREMELY conservative in my entries & exits. I'm sure I left close to 100 pips on the table on each pair (give or take).

Any feedback/comments would be great to hear!!

Have a greay Christmas y'all!
  • #3
  • Dec 24, 2006 10:40am Dec 24, 2006 10:40am
Daemien.

Greetings and welcome.

My offering:

May I suggest that you add this maxim to your list, putting it first:

Preservation of Family

Trading is often the Black Hole of Time for family and relationships. It is certainly addictive. That being said, I hope your system is successful with regard to financial goals and family goals.

Lou
  • #4
  • Dec 24, 2006 11:43am Dec 24, 2006 11:43am
Greetings Daemien, and welcome to the factory.

Quoting Lou
Daemien...May I suggest that you add this maxim to your list, putting it first:

Preservation of Family

Trading is often the Black Hole of Time for family and relationships...Lou
Agreed Lou, and part of my solution in that area was to do my best at including my wife in any webinars/live chat training and she having her own demo account so she was learning (albiet at her own speed), but very involved with the process of learning to trade FX.

======on a more humorous note. 666 = ROFLOL
. . . my tad bit rebelious take on that whole thing.
  • #5
  • Dec 24, 2006 12:06pm Dec 24, 2006 12:06pm
Lol.. it figures that would be the first reply here hehehe. I had actually meant to add something like that when I typed it up this morning.

I've now changed it just for you Lou!!!

And thanks for the warm welcome!

Welcome to my thread - kick up your shoes and have a Rum'n Eggnog!

D.


Quoting Lou
Daemien.

Greetings and welcome.

My offering:

May I suggest that you add this maxim to your list, putting it first:

Preservation of Family

Trading is often the Black Hole of Time for family and relationships. It is certainly addictive. That being said, I hope your system is successful with regard to financial goals and family goals.

Lou
  • #6
  • Dec 24, 2006 12:08pm Dec 24, 2006 12:08pm
Hello Accrete,

I wish my wife was interested. I also play Texas Hold'em poker at times and tried to get her into that to no avail (altho she's a mean backgammon player). This doesn't interest her at all. Perhaps once I start growing our investments??? I can only hope...

Take care,

D.



Quoting accrete
Greetings Daemien, and welcome to the factory.

Agreed Lou, and part of my solution in that area was to do my best at including my wife in any webinars/live chat training and she having her own demo account so she was learning (albiet at her own speed), but very involved with the process of learning to trade FX.

======on a more humorous note. 666 = ROFLOL
. . . my tad bit rebelious take on that whole thing.
  • #7
  • Edited 8:23am Dec 26, 2006 8:02am | Edited 8:23am
Well I have spent the last few days thinking about how I am going to approach my demo trading. I will definitely be forward-testing my own system, but am also going to be including some shorter term types.

I think the Fozzy method (which I have been looking at for a while) should give me more chances at entry/exit. This will also give me a chance to compare results on the daily charts. Both my own & the fozzy will be used on Daily charts alone.

For the shorter charts, I will be combining momentum & swing trading depending upon if the charts are trending strongly (swing) or consolidating/choppping (momentum). Support/Resistance and basic CCI/MACD indicators for this one. A bit more work due to more charts plus having to draw S/R & fibs, but a good learning experience.

D.
  • #8
  • Edited 8:54pm Dec 26, 2006 8:15am | Edited 8:54pm
26 Dec 06 - 8:46am ET
Method: Fozzy
Currency: USDCAD
Entry: Long @ 1.1590
S/L: 1.1513 (5 pips below previous day's candle)
T/P: Not set in stone. Will monitor

I wouldn't have normally executed this trade, but the fozzy indicators did say to buy. Last Friday's MA break was confirmed by today's open (above MA) with solar wind in the positive.

The reason I normally would not have executed was due to pure technicals:

USDCAD has been trending heavily upwards and there is strong resistance @ the 1.1613 level (for this candle) due to a channel that has formed.

I am also concerned with the 1.1600 'psychological' level. This will more than likely add significant resistance in and around that level. Between the channel & psychological resistance, I would expect the price to hit somewhere between the two and turn around.

I will be waiting to go short if this happens!

I have a few charts that are waiting to be triggered upon tomorrow's confirmation. Will wait and see!!

Happy Trading,
  • #9
  • Dec 26, 2006 9:19am Dec 26, 2006 9:19am
Daemien:

Welcome to the wide world of forex. May I suggest that you make this hobby of yours into a family activity. Teach your children how to trade so that they can have a lifetime of prosperity – after their formal education ends. There are few gifts greater than not having to work eight hours a day for fifty years. Engage your wife; let her sit by your side (mine does). Let your hobby be the door to more free time “for” your family – and not the cause of “no” free time.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

/s/ bfs
memores acti prudentes futuri.
  • #10
  • Dec 26, 2006 2:49pm Dec 26, 2006 2:49pm
Welcome bfs, and thank you for the insightful reply!

My wife has absolutely no interest - I tried to pique her interest on the basics but she won't even go there. Oh well lol

My children are a bit young, but I can definitely see educating them as they get older. Part of the reason I am pursuing this is that I want them to see that there are more options out there than the usual '9 to 5' working to make somebody else money. The ability to become independently wealthy (or just comfortable) with effort & time is appealing for sure but I think this desire should be instilled at a young age. I wish I was aware of my options a bit more when I was younger - better late than never tho!

I hope you have a great new years eve, and a prosperous new year!!

D.



Quoting bfs
Daemien:

Welcome to the wide world of forex. May I suggest that you make this hobby of yours into a family activity. Teach your children how to trade so that they can have a lifetime of prosperity – after their formal education ends. There are few gifts greater than not having to work eight hours a day for fifty years. Engage your wife; let her sit by your side (mine does). Let your hobby be the door to more free time “for” your family – and not the cause of “no” free time.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

/s/ bfs
  • #11
  • Dec 26, 2006 2:54pm Dec 26, 2006 2:54pm
Well, I went away from the computer for a bit this morning so I set my take-profit sell stop just below the trend-line resistance @ 1.1607. It closed with a 17 pip profit!!

Now I will just wait for the expected turn-around to go short!

Total P/L: +17
  • #12
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:04pm Dec 26, 2006 3:04pm
EURUSD looks like it's on a run down as it has broken through a support line. It is a bit too close to the 61.8 fib line to enter at this point. Will wait to see if it penetrates below.


GBPUSD, however, has just broken down through a line of support and is heading towards the 61.8 fib line. It has some wiggle (profit) room so I have shorted:

12 Dec 06 - 3:59 ET
Method: Fozzy
Currency: GBPUSD
Entry: Short @ 1.9536 & another lot short @ 1.9538
S/L on both: 1.9665
T/P #1: 1.9465 @ 61.8 Fib
T/P #2: 1.9395 @ Trend-Line support

I put two orders in as I wish to be able to scale out of my position at the first support level (fib) and then hopefully ride the move down to the trend-line @ just below 1.9395. I put my t/p on the second one just above the psychological support level of 1.9400.

Wish me luck
  • #13
  • Edited 9:04pm Dec 26, 2006 9:03pm | Edited 9:04pm
Don't know how I did it, but the trades posted above should all read 26th of December, not the 12th!!



I didn't have time to input this, but I entered USDJPY today as follows:

There was a strong indication of a fall; prices broke down through support established since the 22nd. CCI confirmed and it broke through the 61.8 fib level. My take profit level at 118.75 was activated as a sell stop.

26 Dec 06 - 8:46pm ET
Method: Swing
Currency: USDJPY
Entry: Short @ 118.91
S/L: 119.05
T/P: 118.75 (fib 50.0)
Profit: +16pips

Total P/L so far: +33pips


D.
  • #14
  • Dec 26, 2006 9:16pm Dec 26, 2006 9:16pm
Quoting Daemien
Hello everybody!
Daemien, I wish you the very best. I am looking at your journal as an inspitation for my own start soon. I am still trying to become more confortable before I start.
Once my wife will be here with me, she already expressed interest to join me in my trading adventure.

I am curious, which broker did you choose, you have a micro account? And how much did you start with?

Of course if you dont want to share this info, I fully understand, I am just nosey.

Good luck ! !
Steve
  • #15
  • Dec 27, 2006 10:17am Dec 27, 2006 10:17am
Hi PipSteve!

Thanks for the interest & well-wishes I hope I wasn't misleading (I didn't mean to be) but I am demoing at the moment. I want to make sure that I am using the right tools (systems/methods/whatever you want to call them) and am implementing them properly. I also want to make sure my money management is sound - would be nice to be confident that I can be profitable as well.

I figured that if I created this journal it would keep me somewhat psychologically on track in treating it as a real-money account. I realize that nothing will compare to the real thing, but want to be as prepared as possible.

I am looking at funding an account once my trial demo is over and I see that I can be productive. Probably not before the summer, but who knows? I will more than likely be funding from $1000-$1500 to start and am considering Oanda or possibly tradedirectfx (they offer free e-signal light with a deposit of at least $1000).

Are you actively demo trading at this point??

I hope this helps, and good luck in your endeavours! Make sure you let us know how things develop.

Daemien


Quoting PipSteve
Daemien, I wish you the very best. I am looking at your journal as an inspitation for my own start soon. I am still trying to become more confortable before I start.
Once my wife will be here with me, she already expressed interest to join me in my trading adventure.

I am curious, which broker did you choose, you have a micro account? And how much did you start with?

Of course if you dont want to share this info, I fully understand, I am just nosey.

Good luck ! !
  • #16
  • Dec 27, 2006 10:29am Dec 27, 2006 10:29am
My indicators pointed to a possible breakdown on the 30 minute AUDUSD chart. I placed some sell-stops which were hit and activated!! My entry was timed just after penetration of major support as well as the 38.2 fib... just realized how close it was to the 50 fib level tho - I hope it manages to carry through - only time will tell!


27 Dec 06 - 10:58am ET
Method: Momentum Support Breakthrough
Currency: AUDUSD 30 Min
Entry: Short @ 0.7837
S/L: 0.7851
T/P #1: 0.7828 (61.8 fib)
T/P #2: 0.7821 (78.6 fib)

My Risk/Reward is slightly off of my preference of 1:1 on a lot of these trades. Might be a mistake - time will tell!
  • #17
  • Dec 27, 2006 10:51am Dec 27, 2006 10:51am
Quoting Daemien
My indicators pointed to a possible breakdown on the 30 minute AUDUSD chart. I placed some sell-stops which were hit and activated!! My entry was timed just after penetration of major support as well as the 38.2 fib... just realized how close it was to the 50 fib level tho - I hope it manages to carry through - only time will tell!


27 Dec 06 - 10:58am ET
Method: Momentum Support Breakthrough
Currency: AUDUSD 30 Min
Entry: Short @ 0.7837
S/L: 0.7851
T/P #1: 0.7828 (61.8 fib)
T/P #2: 0.7821 (78.6 fib)

My Risk/Reward is slightly off of my preference of 1:1 on a lot of these trades. Might be a mistake - time will tell!

I totally agree with that.

Let's prosper together~

Bless~
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #18
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:11pm Dec 27, 2006 7:11pm
As suspected the 50% fib level caused some problems.. it hovered @ the 50 level for about four hours (gotta love them fibs then headed back up, triggering my stop-loss. Of course this had to be the first trade where entered with two lots (scaling out of course)...

AUDUSD
Stop-Loss Triggered @ 5:30 today.
Profit/Loss: -28pips

Total P/L: +5pips

I definitely will be more careful entering positions with fib levels so close.
  • #19
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:29pm Dec 27, 2006 7:29pm
USDCHF broke up through resistance at about 12 this afternoon. Entered with two lots setting take profit @ first fib level & half way to second.

27 Dec 06 - 12:11pm ET
Method: Momentum Resistance Breakthrough
Currency: USDCHF 30 Min
Entry: Long @ 1.2256/1.2258
S/L: 1.2195
T/P #1: 1.2280 (61.8 fib)
T/P #2: 1.2330 (Half way to 78.6 fib)

Price changed between entering the first & second position. Is there any way to enter .2 lots and scale out one at a time with MetaTrader?

Looking good so far...

I now have this position and the GBPUSD one still open (two lots each). Both are positive at this time.
  • #20
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:02pm Dec 28, 2006 8:02pm
Well both GBPUSD & USDCHF tanked majorly. Was close to my first t/p on CHF too ;(


Profit/Loss from both pairs: -380

Total P/L: -375

Hmm.. lucky this is a demo

Will keep trying and posting - hopefully I did my technicals ok! A lot of ground to cover to break even now...
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