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The System (Irony included)

  • #281
  • Edited 12:53am Nov 13, 2007 12:41am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting Mr Trend
So what if it goes to 4100? Or what if it stops at 4500? So what if it does. I have no idea. If it stops at 4500, and a pinbar or a bullish outside bar forms, you better believe I'm gonna play that setup... because I know those setups work....
LOL, that question wasn't actually for you, because I see that your method uses the TL and EMA. For the method we are following (feb2865's), with primarily price action determining our entries/exits, I wasn't quite seeing the logic yet with how specifically 4400 is derived as the entry point, when we're not yet sure if the price isn't going to go further down.

If feb2865 also uses trendlines to depict his entry then that would make sense.

I guess for myself, I'm going to need confirmation of a couple more fractals on the 4hr to know when it's clearly heading back up, but that's just me. I'm normally a risk taker, but in this case after learning some about price action, I would have to wait for a clearer sign of either the trend continuation or the price further dropping (especially because I got stopped out previously going in too early on my entry. If I had paid more attention to the Fractals, as well as implemented this thread's method, I would have waited).

Quoting Mr Trend
The probability also goes higher because a) we're still fundamentally bullish with the Eurozone economy versus the US,
That is true.

That may be enough of a reason not to wait for my Fractal confirmation. Hmmmm, I'll have to weigh this out a little bit. But, good point!

Thanks for sharing your experience, Mr Trend
  • #282
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:59am Nov 13, 2007 3:59am
Dear Big Brother Feb, Second Big Brother Trader_V, Leigh, Alcastro,Mr. Trend, Antra, fiveshorts, randomlight, Scooter, Kiwi_trader, ownshook, billbss, colbru , melpheos, farimir and so on:

On last Friday, I uploaded AUD/USD daily chart, and gave some my analysis. I am very glad that Alcastro profited on that opportunity.

When we see some kind of opportunities for a pair on 4H chart , can we just upload the chart? So we have many eyes on different pairs. So we have more chances. Is it a kind of synergy?

Sincerely, David (Greenspan's Green)
  • #283
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:42am Nov 13, 2007 4:42am
David, my dear, it is sooo sweet of you to try to acknowledge us all individually in your salutations, however it is very okay to just say "Dear Everyone", lol.

I fear that in the near future, if this thread gets any bigger, you may be stringing names till the opening and closing of a daily candle, lol.

Again, you are soooo sweet and your thoughtfulness is very much appreciated , but please make your life easy (as feb would say)

Regarding your question, sure no problem for me
  • #284
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:03am Nov 13, 2007 5:03am
oh man I most definitely use a cup of coffee now. LOL
Peace
  • #285
  • Edited 5:57am Nov 13, 2007 5:54am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting leighsww

And feb2865, why that particular number, because could the market still not go down further to possibly 4300 or 4150 even? (I'm not predicting it's going down to there :, just wondering "what if", lol)



LOL, again, like I said, it has to make sense for me, so please can you explain a little more detail, why that particular number?

Thank you!

Ok I am so sorry I check my post and my explanation on theses numbers was kinda ambiguous.

Round numbers, 4500 4000 3900 5000 - DOW 12000, 12500 s&p 1500, 1550 etc. - 500 ticks intervals are sweet spots for the big dogs and sharks.. Sorry you can't see that on hindsight . But if you look closely on price action, the market goes crazy when it reaches theses numbers.

I am looking at areas 4400-4500 not an specific number. If the market goes down below 4400, I just sit down, sip a cup of coffee courtesy of our dear friend trader V and do nothing other than observe.

Be the predator, not the prey.

Patience plays a big role on this business.

Peace
Peace
  • #286
  • Nov 13, 2007 7:36am Nov 13, 2007 7:36am
Goor morning everyone! Well I must say the market is strting to shape up a bit. I am still observing at this point and have not entered any trades. I picked up +400 pips last week so I am just waiting for the next opportunity to show itself.

Attached is a litle calculation tool you all can use to determine your position size in a matter of seconds. Simply input the apropriate information in the yellow cells and poof our answers are spit out in the red cells. Colored appropriatly I think...lol

So plop in your account balance Stop loss level and what you plan to risk on your trades. As your account grows (being optomistic here) adjust your account balance appropriately.

My recommendation is this only change the account balance as it grows by 10% this way you are increasing your lot sizes appropriately which in turn leads to compounding during stages of growth and the same goes for any drawdown.

I use a 3% risk model. If you are a more aggressive trader you may trade up to 10% on a single trade I have no probelm being naked but it's another story to stick a branding iron to my back side...lol To each their own I always say.

Feb I have a huge pot of coffee on the way. Actually I will have to send you what I have found to be the best coffee I have ever had. It is from Panama. I have been around so I have had my fare shar of the good, the bad, and the ugly...lol

Stay tuned for a more advanced version of this spreadsheet folks. I will add a few things like a maximum risk exposure area so you can enter as many as 10 trades but once you expose yourself to more than 10% of your account balance in the market you will know and can prevent over leavraging yourself.

Ok Enough bable on to the second cup of coffee. Which I am sure will lead to more really long posts...lol

Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Risk.xls   16 KB | 1,040 downloads
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #287
  • Nov 13, 2007 10:32am Nov 13, 2007 10:32am
Hi, This is a great thread but I do have some questions :

You say that you trade with the trend but in your examples you talk about 16 august when every index showed a hammer and a continuation candle. Where did you go long and why because at that point the trend was not up?

If you see a v-pattern forming on the 1 H you say you go to the 4 H chart to look for a better entry. How do you do that? Do you look for a v-pattern as well and see if you have confirmation there at a better price?

In thread nr 102 you showed where you took the trade (after 3 bars) do you always need 3 bars to form the beginning of a v-pattern or is 2 also possible?

I am looking forward to your answers and I would really like to see you post some more charts with your previous trades (entry + exit)

Good trading to everybody!
  • #288
  • Edited 11:34am Nov 13, 2007 11:33am | Edited 11:34am
I thought I would take a moment to sum up this thread to see if I am on the right track.

On the GBPUSD Day Chart below....we have an overall uptrend and 3 days of corrections.

Todays candle...for example sake....will be considered an end to the correction and the beginning of overall trend resumption.

From what I understand....we wait until the yellow line "HIGH" is taken out (stronger confirmation of trend resumption) .... then we can drop down to the 4 hour and look for a cheaper entry looking for the "V" setup or the 1-2-3 entry on 2 break entry. (or simply use the day chart for entry).

To be honest....looking at the 4 hour chart for today....it is tough to sit on hands and jump the gun on a long entry instead of waiting for the day confirmation.

Stop would be placed under the day candle that proceeds the breakout candle.

Appreciate any critique of my understanding. Thanks.
Attached Image
  • #289
  • Edited 1:03pm Nov 13, 2007 12:25pm | Edited 1:03pm
Okay, thanks feb2865 for the clarification

WoW, thanks for the spreadsheet and info on MM, Trader_V!

Quoting ownshook
To be honest....looking at the 4 hour chart for today....it is tough to sit on hands and jump the gun on a long entry instead of waiting for the day confirmation.

Stop would be placed under the day candle that proceeds the breakout candle.
I'm hardly an expert at this yet, but here's my take on it ...

I would wait on re-entering the upward trend. Look at my two charts attached. The top one is the 4hr and the bottom one is the Weekly.

Both have acquired a Fractal and a dot. Yes, Fractals can redraw itself, but the fact that one was created, and with what the Weekly is showing, I would wait.

Also, for the 4hr, the entry, in my opinion, would be too late, thus you would not be buying at a discount. You would be already approx. 100 pips away from the candlestick where you would have entered according to the V-Formation example.

Again, looking at the 4hr and especially the Weekly, and the Fractal and candlesticks being created, it doesn't yet to me look like a long position should be taken just yet.

*edited - Since the Weekly has developed a lower fractal, too, however, when there's more confirmation on the Daily for the trend continuation, then that would be time for reconsideration. However, feb2865 mentioned that he doesn't necessarily look at the Weekly, so who knows, lol, but I do feel that it has stories to tell (especially looking at the pattern it has created for that currency pair) and should merit a need for a peek at it once-in-a-while, I think, lol.

Anyway, that's my opinion, let's see what others say.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 459 KB
  • #290
  • Nov 13, 2007 12:25pm Nov 13, 2007 12:25pm
Thanks, Trader V, for the risk calculator. Simple enough. Perfect.
  • #291
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:37pm Nov 13, 2007 2:37pm
Thank you for taking time to respond leighsww.

I will concur that the 4 hr has zoomed up and as a look at the 4 hr candle set to close at 1600 est, it is starting to put in a low (retrace) which would give me a cheaper entry perhaps as it unfolds over the next several 4hr intervals.

To be honest...the talk about fractals and dots spin in my head as I have never utilized them....don't really know the implications of them nor have those on my charts.


If I were to zoom out to the weekly chart.....I will agree that it does not give any indication of a long trend resumption (it is however messing around near a support line put in on july 22) however I would think by the time that it does....this pair would have already moved substantially to the upside.

Great thread.....great input......
  • #292
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:44pm Nov 13, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting ownshook
To be honest...the talk about fractals and dots spin in my head as I have never utilized them....don't really know the implications of them nor have those on my charts.
I apologize, ownshook .

Yes, I should not be depending on the Fractals to demonstrate my feedback/opinions, as I realize that not everyone will have that indicator on their charts.

Quoting ownshook
If I were to zoom out to the weekly chart.....I will agree that it does not give any indication of a long trend resumption (it is however messing around near a support line put in on july 22) however I would think by the time that it does....this pair would have already moved substantially to the upside.
You are right about that, as well, and I would not depend on the Weekly to make my decisions to enter, but mainly to show me where the overall bigger picture might be at, and to confirm to me if I should stay out for now until I see a clear confirmation of the Daily continuing the uptrend.

Good input from you!
  • #293
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:54pm Nov 13, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting leighsww
as I realize that not everyone will have that indicator on their charts.
I spoke to soon. Metatrader does have a fractal indicator (Bill Williams)

"Fractal Technical Indicator it is a series of at least five successive bars, with the highest HIGH in the middle, and two lower HIGHs on both sides. The reversing set is a series of at least five successive bars, with the lowest LOW in the middle, and two higher LOWs on both sides, which correlates to the sell fractal. The fractals are have High and Low values and are indicated with the up and down arrows"

I don't want to clutter this thread with these kinds of posts however there are many who use metatrader and they should know that it does have them.
  • #294
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:00pm Nov 13, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting ownshook
I spoke to soon. Metatrader does have a fractal indicator (Bill Williams) ...

... there are many who use metatrader and they should know that it does have them.
Cool!

Now, I wonder if somebody knows how to program those dots into the script/code of that indicator? lol

I find that the dots really help with the visual effects of the possible continuation of the price action's movement (I say possible, because again, nothing is engraved in stone, lol).

*edited - It's also great for spotting the breakouts right away, like Trader_V's method, without having to draw the lines yourself.
  • #295
  • Edited 4:10pm Nov 13, 2007 3:53pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting greenpips
showed where you took the trade (after 3 bars) do you always need 3 bars to form the beginning of a v-pattern or is 2 also possible?
feb2865 will answer your other questions directed to him, however I did have a little opinion on the above you wrote ...

I'm thinking that waiting for the 3rd candle is probably safer to determine if the trend is indeed continuing due to watching where their close is at, because many times the 2nd candle isn't enough to really be confident about it, especially if the next candle decides to head back the other way, as we see many times happen, even in the case of double-tops/double-bottoms which if you're putting your SL at the bottom of the previous day's candle, it could still take you out if it goes slightly below the previous candle enough to where your SL is located, before heading the right way.

Take for example the chart I've attached (see circled area). Unfortunately, in that scenario, even getting in at the right candle for any of those possibilities (and there's several because they are in a consolidation, but of course we don't know that at the time, cuz we are only seeing this now in hindsight), most of those would have been stopped out, and can you imagine if you kept trying to go back in thinking that it's going to go up finally?

Having the extra candlestick will definitely help your odds in the long-run, to avoid instances of this nature in majority of cases (lol, I say "majority" cuz as we see in the example chart, that was a bummer of a situation due to the consolidation, which happens, but more times out of any, the V-Formation formula seems to work for overall pullbacks).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD2.png Size: 237 KB
  • #296
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:02pm Nov 13, 2007 4:02pm
Okay, I was just re-examining the chart I posted above in regards to that consolidation and how even getting in at the right candlestick would have been stopped out many times, however, maybe this might not be so ...

When I re-examine feb2865's example of the V-Formation, maybe we have to wait until that entry candlestick exceeds the previous candlestick's high (or low if it's a downtrend)? Once it clearly has shown to have exceeded it at some point, then we can enter, no?

If that is the case, then the above scenarios wouldn't have us entering, we would have sat out, because none of the 3rd candlesticks made it above the previous candle's high.

That would have saved us from getting into a bad situation in the case of consolidation.
  • #297
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:34pm Nov 13, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting greenpips
Hi, This is a great thread but I do have some questions :

You say that you trade with the trend but in your examples you talk about 16 august when every index showed a hammer and a continuation candle. Where did you go long and why because at that point the trend was not up?

If you see a v-pattern forming on the 1 H you say you go to the 4 H chart to look for a better entry. How do you do that? Do you look for a v-pattern as well and see if you have confirmation there at a better price?

In thread nr 102 you showed where you took the trade (after 3 bars) do you always need 3 bars to form the beginning of a v-pattern or is 2 also possible?

I am looking forward to your answers and I would really like to see you post some more charts with your previous trades (entry + exit)

Good trading to everybody!
Yes I went long actually was on AUG 23 The trend on EUR/USD comes back from 2002.

Yes I wait for the third candle - that minimizes risk...It is not a holy grail, just reduces risk in my opinion.

I trade a variety of markets. I could post charts but isn't going to be forex. I don't get chained to a single market.
Peace
  • #298
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:43pm Nov 13, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting leighsww
Okay, I was just re-examining the chart I posted above in regards to that consolidation and how even getting in at the right candlestick would have been stopped out many times, however, maybe this might not be so ...

When I re-examine feb2865's example of the V-Formation, maybe we have to wait until that entry candlestick exceeds the previous candlestick's high (or low if it's a downtrend)? Once it clearly has shown to have exceeded it at some point, then we can enter, no?

If that is the case, then the above scenarios wouldn't have us entering, we would have sat out, because none of the 3rd candlesticks made it above the previous candle's high.

That would have saved us from getting into a bad situation in the case of consolidation.
Exactly how I do it. I wait for the close, then I enter IF it breaks the higher/high or lower low of the last one. The V-formation has to be there.

I'll post some charts on the next post
Peace
  • #299
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:54pm Nov 13, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting feb2865
Exactly how I do it. I wait for the close, then I enter IF it breaks the higher/high or lower low of the last one. The V-formation has to be there.
Okay, that's GREAT! Thanks for confirming that, feb!!
  • #300
  • Nov 13, 2007 6:39pm Nov 13, 2007 6:39pm
Good morning and Good evening to all:

Thanks Trader_V for your risk management table, thanks Big Brother for further elaboration on your method, thanks Leigh for your comments, and others as well.

If E/U closes above 1.4630 3 and half hour later, it meets Big Brother's and Trader_V's methods both. Is it a chance to open a long position?

Take your own risk if you make any decision.

Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H 1114.JPG Size: 99 KB
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