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Psychology is nothing

  • #101
  • Nov 12, 2007 5:52am Nov 12, 2007 5:52am
Quoting SeekingLight
Completely not surprised to find the author of the thread to be BR. I already tried making my point in his transition thread and he already brought it up in the J16 thread as well.

Mike and raczekf and basically anyone inside the PF "gets it" I think.

I also think that as long as you refuse to "accept" you won't get there.


BR, I think you're still in denial.


The fact alone that you have now refused to accept and gone on to deny in not one, two but three threads and rather put the energy against it than to accept is about as loud and clear a proof as anyone would need.
You bring up a very good point.

An objective person would have to say that anytime someone rants as much about something as I have about this, there must be something there.

Everyone has "demons" that hold them back, in trading, and in life.

The demon comes into play any time a trader runs into something they don't KNOW how to handle. This was part of my basic premise in the OP.

These instances will always come up, although less frequently as technical ability improves and experience is gained.

Therefore, until a trader knows how to handle anything that comes up, or learns how to stay out of conditions he or she doesn't know how to handle, psychology will be in issue.

That's really the other half of what I said originally.

So it would still follow that, a trader who is in "the zone" knows how to handle anything he or she runs up against, and as soon as he's in uncharted territory, he gets out!

A newbie is always in uncharted territory. Emotions take over constantly.

It still gets back to knowledge of the market, it's just that it's a sliding scale, not an absolute.

So I'd say we're both right.
  • #102
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:08am Nov 12, 2007 6:08am
Quoting james275
While experienced traders can joust...pick and poke at each other, my concern is that newbie traders will want to believe you and what you are saying. This imo is very dangerous.

Your response regarding risk management shows very clearly that you don't understand the management pressures of larger amounts of actual $$, and the psycoloigical issues that are involved when you trade accounts that are 6 or even 7 figures. THe 2% of this amount or that amount "sounds" right. But in reality there is a huge difference when it is your own dough.
It's just arithmetic, James. Relax.

When my account gets to 6 or 7 figures, I will know that I'm a good trader. I will continue to execute my system the same as I did for years, to get to that point.

If you risk less of the account on a % basis, you lose the benefit of compounding.

In addition, at that point in time I will have removed money from the account and diversified into other investments so that my 7 figure account is still risk money, just as my 4 figure account is now. If I lose it all, my finances will not be threatened.
  • #103
  • Edited 6:27am Nov 12, 2007 6:14am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting ubeee
Jimno, this is exactly the contrary. It's giving too much importance to psychology that is really, really dangerous for newbie traders, or at least it's a big waste of their time. It happened to me in my beginning.

When a newbie demo trades he does not really have a great system, he thinks he have but it's not true. He uses to increase it's position size after every loss, does average losses instead of closing, buys weakness and sells strength, risks 50% or more on every single trade, does not have a definite plan and generally makes all of the well known mistakes newbies usually make.

He wins of course, on demo, because on the short term it can happen that he gets 10-20 wins with very few losses. If it does not happen, a newbie thinks he has to change his entry rules, not surely his money management, or exit rules or the plan itself. So at a certain point it happens that he gets on demo those 10-20 wins with very few losses and he sees his demo account incredibly increased and thinks he is now really ready to go live.

When he goes live of course there will be a point when he starts losing. That moment what do you think a newbie does? Will he reconsider his money management or his plan? Surely not, because he has already proved it on demo. He will start to think to this madness of psychology.
He thinks: "Oh God, on demo I never worry when I get a 65% drawdown, it's when I'm live that I get these worries. I have to work on my psychology. My equity line reflects my self-esteem, the money are there, I can get all I want if I only really wanted. I have to convince myself that I deserve those money..." and all that crap that is written in those psychology books.

So he stops for a while (few minutes), strongly concentrates on himself, on his psychology, on the fact that he really wants those money, that he deserves them, that now he is really sure he deserves, he convinced himself now, he is ready to start trading again, and this time with a very big position size (he have to recover the lost money and now that he is sure to deserve money it's the right moment to go big size).

Well, now I think THIS is really dangerous.

A good book on MM would save him, where a book on psychology will only have the effect to increase his frustration, to let him really start doubting about his self-esteem, putting him on a really steep descent to financial and psychological ruin.

Now, I always say that there are a lot of good books on trading, on MM and also on psychology. But I read the book you mention (and others too) and I think there are not books about trading and psychology at the same time that are any good.
Just my opinion based on my experience.
Thank you again, ubeee! You have hit the nail on the head, over and over! This is exactly what I was trying to say.

It's wrong to tell traders it's all in their head! There's simply something, or many things, they don't know how to do.

Profitable trading requires discretion, and that means constant decision. Only a small fraction of what is involved in trading can be covered in a good training course.
  • #104
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:00pm Nov 12, 2007 4:00pm
Being charitable and ignoring the possibility that you are an idiot, for you say this the either:

- you are not a real trader and just haven't experienced it; or
- you've got blood of ice and haven't run into people who haven't.

If you're in the first category, which I suspect, then you're trading so small that you haven't discovered these points for yourself. So you actually believe that psychology has nothing to do with trading success because of the limits of your experience and perception.

Why do you think that the turtles all performed differently? They were all using the same system which was perfect at the time. They all had the same training. But they each reacted differently to the pressure of really big money.


Quoting blueruby
Why?

If you use proper position sizing, why does it matter how big the trade ends up being?

You risk 2% of your account. If that's 2 dollars, or 2 million, it's still 2%.

If you have 2 million on the trade, it means you have 100 million in the account. 2 isn't that big of a deal.

You run the numbers, you trade the system, you place the trade.

I think you people who are all into the feelings and emotions and drama and crap will never ever make it big. You limit yourselves, you don't give yourselves enough credit. If you say emotions can rule you, then they can. If you give them no consideration or power, then they cannot rule you.......
  • #105
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:37pm Nov 12, 2007 4:37pm
I believe that psychology comes into play in everything where ownership is involved.

Humans hate losing anything that they deem as their's...

Studies suggest that the reason for road rage is that people feel that the space within their car is their personal little domain. It's their's... so a loss of control, or a loss of personal space, causes ill will towards others.

Trading, like any business, is the same.

If you watch, Kitchen Nightmares, the reality TV show, you will find that it's all centered around people who own businesses who don't have a clue what is wrong, even though it's staring them right in the face.

They don't have a clue because they can't accept that they're wrong. That they are the problem... they think they have all the answers, and when someone comes along and proves that they are wrong, they go into denial and refuse to acknowledge their own shortcomings.

This is the same with trading and why psychology is so important.
Mr. Trend
  • #106
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:11pm Nov 12, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting Mr Trend
it's all centered around people who own businesses who don't have a clue what is wrong, even though it's staring them right in the face.

They don't have a clue because they can't accept that they're wrong. That they are the problem... they think they have all the answers, and when someone comes along and proves that they are wrong, they go into denial and refuse to acknowledge their own shortcomings.

This is the same with trading and why psychology is so important.
This really can't be repeated often enough since this phenomenon is so widespread on FF it's scary (and mindnumbingly annoying to perpetually re-suffer when one tries to help - thank god for the PF).

In my experience:
"proves that they are wrong" => could just as well be: "says they are doing something wrong and tries to show them how to do it right"...leads to the same reflex. And it will annoy those trying to help so many times that they eventually will just stop trying to help those that don't want it - and worst case, stop trying to help anyone at all.

That should be the real concern on a macro scale.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #107
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:08pm Nov 12, 2007 9:08pm
Ok then.
For those that insist that psychology is not dependent on the validity of our system.I don't mean the "validity" of our system based on 100 paper or even real trades.What I mean is a system that works through thousands of trades and numerous positions in all kinds of markets ,from commodities to stocks etc,often contradicting all the market participants' views.
The incompleteness of our knowledge regarding the market is what makes us feel emotions.

What leads us, myself included,to feel some kind of psychological pressure when trading?
I will answer it myself.There are sometimes that you'll open a position and the market will jump directly to your SL then retrace back.You short again and it bounces back up and never looks back.
It's possible to initiate a massive position and then watch the market move against you for 200 pips in a matter of minutes if not seconds.
In this business(don't be mistaken ,trading is a business and a very risky one)you can get wiped out pretty easily and fast if you are not careful.
That's why you need emotions' control.
Every time someone earns has to remain calm without becoming overconfident and every time someone loses he has to be able to recover and pull the trigger on the next trade as if nothing had happened.


If and I say if we had a system that could break market's symmetrical nature then I would have no fear to trade freely all of my account on every single trade knowing that there is no chance that I could ever lose.
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #108
  • Edited 10:54pm Nov 12, 2007 10:40pm | Edited 10:54pm
After three years of trading, I am still trying to make consistent profits. Only recently I am finding some success. The problem was I was trying all kinds of strategies only to realize that none of them can make you money all the time. I am only beginning to realize that the trick is in having an edge (could be any strategy or system really), and then hoping that with an increasing number of trades you enter into a profit zone. In other words, this is really a matter of probability. The edge (or the strategy, system ) plays out only in the long run. That is why it is important to stick to a strategy or system, keep practicing it till it becomes almost like intuition. With every new trade, we will get better at reducing losses by keeping better stop losses, maximizing profits and avoiding bad entries.

So while a system is certainly very important, unless we develop our psychology to avoid fear and greed by constant practice and developing a better understanding of our mistakes, we will get no where. Initially psychology and system are very important, but eventually we should reach a point where we have developed such a robust trading technique that placing a trade almost becomes like reflex action. It is then that psychology becomes a non-issue. To me that would be the true hallmark of a successful, professional trader.

Another irony is that unless you have a solid trading system and unless you have practiced enough and developed enough faith in it, you will never be able to build the kind of psychology that I have been talking about. It is then that it appears like psychology is everything.

In conclusion, a robust system is a required foundation on which we can build our psychology to the point that psychology becomes almost non-existent.

Do you guys agree?
  • #109
  • Nov 13, 2007 12:35am Nov 13, 2007 12:35am
Quoting temporary
It's possible to initiate a massive position and then watch the market move against you for 200 pips in a matter of minutes if not seconds.
In this business(don't be mistaken ,trading is a business and a very risky one)you can get wiped out pretty easily and fast if you are not careful.
That's why you need emotions' control.
For God's sake, and in which way your emotions' control is going to save your money from a market that moves against you for 200 pips in a matter of minutes if not seconds?

First you open a "massive position" and this could be the first mistake. You can be a scalper, and that would be ok, but in that case you don't let the market go against you for 200 pips when scalping. Or you can have a different strategy that allows you to have a market 200 pips against you, but in that case you surely don't open a "massive position" (referred to as a % of your capital).

And all this is PLANNING, not emotion control.

Yes, if you have a "massive position" and a market moves against you for 200 pips, yes, surely, you feel strong emotions! But going to control those emotions will not save your money at all. You can be as good as you like with controlling your emotions, but if you allow a drawdown of 200 pips for a "massive position" you are going to lose your money anyway sooner or later, despite your perfectly mastered psychological control.

You need a PLAN, an extensively back tested and forward tested one, and tested by yourself. A plan that gives you confidence that it has positive expectancy. You need this PLAN to tell you what to do in every market circumstance (go long, go short, stay away) and how to do it (entry, exit, position size, etc.). Then you need the DISCIPLINE to strictly behave only in accordance with this PLAN.

Now specifically for me and myself only.
For me building a system with a positive expectancy required three years of really hard work (16-18 hours a day) and eventually I needed the help of a mentor to have success on this.
For me mastering the DISCIPLINE to follow my hard-earned PLAN required ONE WEEK of trainig.

Hence for me:
1) mastering the DISCIPLINE and all the psychological aspects of trading is VERY EASY!
2) building a system that really suits a trader goals and has positive expectancy is VERY HARD!

This is for me. Since I see that a lot of people find so hard to follow with DISCIPLINE a system that fits their goals, I talk for myself only.

I just add that if a wannabe trader has really found a good system but he is still not able to follow it with DISCIPLINE there are only two possible reasons, as I see it:
a) the system is not really that good (or simply you don't really like it, that means that it does not fit your goals) and in my opinion this happens in 99.9% of the cases;
b) you have serius problems on your own such as you are not only unable to do trading but also all of the other jobs that involve accountability and risk. In this case, fortunately extremely rare, you require the support of professional psychologist. You will never solve your problems with those crap books about trading and psychology. They will just worsen your problems because they are filled with completely invented crap theories on mind and psyche that do find not even one single correspondence with what serious scientific psychology researchers from all over the world have developed in the last decades.

That's it. But remember that this is just my opinion based on my experiences.
.Ubeee.
  • #110
  • Edited 1:30am Nov 13, 2007 1:17am | Edited 1:30am
Quoting ubeee
For God's sake, and in which way your emotions' control is going to save your money from a market that moves against you for 200 pips in a matter of minutes if not seconds?

First you open a "massive position" and this could be the first mistake. You can be a scalper, and that would be ok, but in that case you don't let the market go against you for 200 pips when scalping. Or you can have a different strategy that allows you to have a market 200 pips against you, but in that case you surely don't open a "massive position" (referred to as a % of your capital).

And all this is PLANNING, not emotion control.

Yes, if you have a "massive position" and a market moves against you for 200 pips, yes, surely, you feel strong emotions! But going to control those emotions will not save your money at all. You can be as good as you like with controlling your emotions, but if you allow a drawdown of 200 pips for a "massive position" you are going to lose your money anyway sooner or later, despite your perfectly mastered psychological control.

You need a PLAN, an extensively back tested and forward tested one, and tested by yourself. A plan that gives you confidence that it has positive expectancy. You need this PLAN to tell you what to do in every market circumstance (go long, go short, stay away) and how to do it (entry, exit, position size, etc.). Then you need the DISCIPLINE to strictly behave only in accordance with this PLAN.
Firstly my stop losses are really tight.
Secondly if I do get 200 pips of losses when I have built a huge position I am headed for the poor house.
What I wanted to emphasize is that sometimes you are going to be wrong.Dead wrong.The market will run against you like a raging bull.
If you let your emotions of hope and fear overrun you then you'll freeze and you will be incapable of acting.
What I meant by saying 200 pips was not that you'll take the losses but at times like those you must remain calm and being able to analyze whether the current market action is merely a fluctuation that soon will fade away and go your way or a move that clearly indicates that you are wrong.
Because a spike could mean either a SL trigger or a breakout ,if you let time pass hoping the market will go your way soon it might be 200 pips against you.
I am not going to bring any examples but if you want me to so I can clarify it better then I'll be glad .
Your emotions control is going to save you because as long as you see the market moving against you ,in a way that if you don't immediately act you are going to get destroyed,you have to close the position without hoping for a retracement.Because sometimes its simply not going to happen.
On the other hand closing a position recklessly just because it moved 30 pips against you in an explosive manner isn't correct as well either.


I couldn't agree more that you need a plan.A strategy whatever you call it.
I prefer the term worst case scenario.
But how are you going to ever implement the strategy if you are completely incapable of thinking or acting.Believe me when you are in the red big time and the market is going against you fast you need balls either to wait for a retracement or to close the position.

Of course how bold someone is depends on his system and here I agree.That given a system with 100% accuracy then there would be absolutely no fear.As the accuracy decreases the risk increases and the fear becomes greater as well.
We agree a 100%.A trader needs discipline which cannot be attained by simply reading books.
I think that a way to control your emotions comes from two things.
Knowing yourself and having trained yourself .
By having trained yourself I also include physical training such as any kind of sport and preferrably martial arts which emphasize on discipline.
People want the easy way.Follow someone's advice and thus discipline will be attained.This is impossible without some kind of hard training.

p.s
If you read my earlier posts you'll see that I agree absolutely with the fact that knowledge is the key to eliminate emotions.

p.s 2
Emotions sometimes are triggered not only because of losses and erroneous judgement but because of missed opportunities as well.
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #111
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:42am Nov 13, 2007 1:42am
Quoting Mr Trend
If you watch, Kitchen Nightmares, the reality TV show, you will find that it's all centered around people who own businesses who don't have a clue what is wrong, even though it's staring them right in the face.

They don't have a clue because they can't accept that they're wrong. That they are the problem... they think they have all the answers, and when someone comes along and proves that they are wrong, they go into denial and refuse to acknowledge their own shortcomings.

This is the same with trading and why psychology is so important.
This is so simple, it's funny how it's going over all the psych fans' heads. I'm going to run with your analogy.

Let's say someone wanted to start a restaurant. But most of what they cooked was inedible. They looked around and said, "the problem is, I'm a lousy cook. How do I learn to cook?"

But all his "friends" put their arm around him and said, "Your problem is all in your head. Let me refer you to a good shrink." He struggles on.

Finally someone shows up with some good recipes, makes sure the guy understands them, and all of a sudden he can cook pretty well.

But, if the person insists, "my food is GOOD!" when a casual observer can see that people make bad faces, leave most of it on the plate, and never come back, then the cook is in denial. Good recipes would still solve the problem, if he would follow them. Then he would see that he was wrong before by being shown the difference.

If a person insisted they were a good trader, and blew account after account, they are in denial. The solution: teach them to trade.

If a person blows accounts and says, "I'm not a good trader. I need to study, learn, and practice trading", I don't follow that he needs psychological help.
  • #112
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:49am Nov 13, 2007 1:49am
Quoting temporary
If and I say if we had a system that could break market's symmetrical nature then I would have no fear to trade freely all of my account on every single trade knowing that there is no chance that I could ever lose.
We know it is not possible to have a system that could never lose.

We know it is possible to make consistent profits. People do this.

So why is it necessary to "never lose" in order to maintain composure? Isn't it good enough to know that you will profit over time, while sometimes the market moves against you?

When you get to that level of competency, you will trade in "the zone".
  • #113
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:53am Nov 13, 2007 1:53am
Quoting blueruby
This is so simple, it's funny how it's going over all the psych fans' heads. I'm going to run with your analogy.

Let's say someone wanted to start a restaurant. But most of what they cooked was inedible. They looked around and said, "the problem is, I'm a lousy cook. How do I learn to cook?"

But all his "friends" put their arm around him and said, "Your problem is all in your head. Let me refer you to a good shrink." He struggles on.

Finally someone shows up with some good recipes, makes sure the guy understands them, and all of a sudden he can cook pretty well.

But, if the person insists, "my food is GOOD!" when a casual observer can see that people make bad faces, leave most of it on the plate, and never come back, then the cook is in denial. Good recipes would still solve the problem, if he would follow them. Then he would see that he was wrong before by being shown the difference.

If a person insisted they were a good trader, and blew account after account, they are in denial. The solution: teach them to trade.

If a person blows accounts and says, "I'm not a good trader. I need to study, learn, and practice trading", I don't follow that he needs psychological help.
Is it possible for someone to have a system that is correct 90% of the time and still not being able to profit from the market?
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #114
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:57am Nov 13, 2007 1:57am
Quoting blueruby
We know it is not possible to have a system that could never lose.

We know it is possible to make consistent profits. People do this.

So why is it necessary to "never lose" in order to maintain composure? Isn't it good enough to know that you will profit over time, while sometimes the market moves against you?

When you get to that level of competency, you will trade in "the zone".
never said the opposite ,I agree.I just want to outline that knowledge and not mere statistical data is what will totally free us from emotions.

By the way.What does the term "the zone" mean?I am not familiar with it.
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #115
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:20am Nov 13, 2007 2:20am
Quoting temporary
Is it possible for someone to have a system that is correct 90% of the time and still not being able to profit from the market?
Absolutely.

Expectancy = (% winners * average gain) - (% losers * average loss)

or (number of winners * average gain) - (number of losers * average loss)

If your average loss is 50 pips and your average gain is 5, you will lose.
  • #116
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:23am Nov 13, 2007 2:23am
Quoting blueruby
Psychology is nothing

Knowing is the entire game.
knowing what's right does not necessarily mean you'll do it. only correct mindset can guarantee that.
  • #117
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:28am Nov 13, 2007 2:28am
Quoting blueruby
This is so simple, it's funny how it's going over all the psych fans' heads. I'm going to run with your analogy.

Let's say someone wanted to start a restaurant. But most of what they cooked was inedible. They looked around and said, "the problem is, I'm a lousy cook. How do I learn to cook?"

But all his "friends" put their arm around him and said, "Your problem is all in your head. Let me refer you to a good shrink." He struggles on.

Finally someone shows up with some good recipes, makes sure the guy understands them, and all of a sudden he can cook pretty well.

But, if the person insists, "my food is GOOD!" when a casual observer can see that people make bad faces, leave most of it on the plate, and never come back, then the cook is in denial. Good recipes would still solve the problem, if he would follow them. Then he would see that he was wrong before by being shown the difference.

If a person insisted they were a good trader, and blew account after account, they are in denial. The solution: teach them to trade.

If a person blows accounts and says, "I'm not a good trader. I need to study, learn, and practice trading", I don't follow that he needs psychological help.
If you give 10 people the exact same trading system, and yet they all get different results, why is that?
Mr. Trend
  • #118
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:42am Nov 13, 2007 2:42am
Quoting blueruby
But, if the person insists, "my food is GOOD!" when a casual observer can see that people make bad faces, leave most of it on the plate, and never come back, then the cook is in denial. Good recipes would still solve the problem, if he would follow them. Then he would see that he was wrong before by being shown the difference.

If a person insisted they were a good trader, and blew account after account, they are in denial. The solution: teach them to trade.
The fact that good recipes would solve the guy's problem is simply not true. I just watched a show the other night and the dude still wouldn't listen. He finally blew up, made a complete jackass of himself, and only then did he realize he was wrong. And that's all psychological. After awhile, you either quit in failure, or admit that you let emotions take over and cloud the decision (or plan) that you know you should've followed... especially if that plan has been tested and shows profitability. It's one thing to be ignorant. It's a whole 'nuther issue of not following your plan because you have fear, or greed, or whatever issues... which is psychological.

In trading, a trader blows account after account because he can't follow his plan and he thinks just like you do -- that it can't be his head... once again -- if I give ten traders the same plan and tell them to execute it precisely, they will all get different results. The lack of them failing to follow the plan has nothing to do with the lack of knowing how to trade. It's because they have bad habits and start using their head thinking they know where the market is going next... and they don't...

If it was as easy as you think it is from a "know-how" perspective, then everyone would be successful, because trading isn't hard; You have a chart, and a buy and sell button.
Mr. Trend
  • #119
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:45am Nov 13, 2007 2:45am
Quoting temporary
never said the opposite ,I agree.I just want to outline that knowledge and not mere statistical data is what will totally free us from emotions.

By the way.What does the term "the zone" mean?I am not familiar with it.
It's a term that I believe was first used in athletics. When a player's "in the zone" they're pretty much outside their body, performing at their peak or beyond, have no fear, feel no pain, seem almost invincible, can't miss a shot, etc..

Over the years it's been used in many other fields.

Mark Douglas wrote "Trading in the Zone", it's a good book. Trading "in the zone" would mean executing a system click-click-click with no considerations about wins, losses, no emotion at all, just trade the system with certainty that at the end of the day, or week, or month, the gain will be there.

He describes the zone in much detail.

He studied traders for 18 years before writing the book. The main difference he found between the successful traders and the losing traders was this mindset.

That leads one to conclude that all they have to do is have the right mindset, and they'll be successful at trading.

It is very obvious to me now, that one would have to have a robust system, and know how to trade well, in order to "trade in the zone". When I first read the book, I was doing all the things he talked about (the 4 fears of trading - very astute) so I thought it was just me.

Hey, I'd taken a couple courses, I'm a smart guy, I'm not making money. It's gotta be all in my head! Wow, how simple it will be to become successful, just change my attitude and presto! I'll be rich!

Earth to Rob -- no wait -- Market to Rob: "trading is just a bit more complex a problem than you've sized it up to be. But, come on in, heh heh heh."
  • #120
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:50am Nov 13, 2007 2:50am
Quoting Mr Trend
If you give 10 people the exact same trading system, and yet they all get different results, why is that?
Give 10 cooks the same recipe, will all the dishes taste the same?
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