feb2865, I'd still much appreciate your critique of my notes on the chart I posted earlier, if you have time
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=197
in your double top formation what really happened was a deep correction. The trend went back up again. You should take a note on that. Looks can be deceiving.
You don't need that 365 ema in my opinion.
in the # 3 waiting for a tip on the trendline to break, I suggest better to wait for the fractal. Trendlines can be deceiving. In that particular case I will sit on my hands.
On B - seems like a trend reversal but I think that it could be another big correction - too many in my opinion. Smells like a period of consolidation is waiting ahead. Too much balance I personally don't like it. Also corrections in this pair are not structured. Just look at the last one is lower than the previous. Kinda of a "fools game" in my opinion. Could go lower, stall in a coil, I mean.....you really don't have a clue.
No clue = no trade
We need market imbalance in order to make money. Remember that.
The last comment about "looking for long opportunities" I will prefer to sit on my hands and wait. I trade off confirmed fractals. If I don't see one = no trade. As simple as that. That's my hard and fast rule.
If I see something I don't like I just move on to the next one. I don't get attached to any market. All I care is a chance to make a buck you know????
Seems like that pair is factored on the stock market......what is it??? the Aussie???
here you go
check the notes on the charts
Peace
I haven't see clockwork in some time now.
I wonder where's he's at??
:, but you know what I mean, lol). Even if you're not with a broker who charges commission, you're still paying it on the spread. For me, I have no problems paying commissions or spreads to the brokers (they have to get paid somehow), but where I can be smart about it to maximize my profitability, is to minimize the amount I pay out to these expenses (thus going long-term) and to increase my wins to losses ratio.Losing in some, winning other times (but with that feeling that it was a "fluke" coz there was no rational explanation that could support my win), I have come to the conclusion that PA is king (I guess i have said this in every single time I have posted here!!!).
Seems like some gremlins have been at work on the FF site and I think Merlin is aware of it all and hopefully it will soon be fixed.
This thread is really interesting reading. Thank you Feb for your patience in explaining and sharing your experiences of many years. There is so much to learn from in this thread and your advice greatly appreciated.
)
David -
I know it's hard to give up the shorter timeframes due to having to put a larger SL, cuz I went through the same thing for the longest time. I finally realized, however, that it just wasn't profitable trading short-term.
Please read this following post where I calculated why short term trades are not profitable --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=1 (I know it's a long post, but please take the time to read through it, as it quantifies what I am saying here.
In those scenarios, commissions were based on 1 lot = $100,000.
I've been trading live for 8 months, but here's some statistics from the last 5 months of actual trades that proves this fact (I'm currently trading 1 lot = $10,000):
July: Profit $66.01 Commissions: -284.37 (approx. 122 roundtrip trades)
August: Profit $538.21 Commissions: -$234.48 (approx. 185)
September: Loss -$378.69 Commissions: -$285.25 (approx. 233)
October: Profit: $18.72 Commissions: -$674.63 (approx. 357)
November: Loss -408.02 Commissions: -$61.77 (approx. 25)
Now for November, I started trading long-term from the 6th, so here's those statistics taking out Nov. 1st - 5th trades:
Nov. 06 to current: Loss -$419.35 Commissions: -$10.34 (approx. 7)
All other months up until Nov. 6, I've been trading short-term on shorter-timeframes.
As you can see, because trading long-term has much less trades being turned over, the commission expenses is much more feasible (well, I am currently in the negative, so it's not feasible if you're losing
For July, August and October, although I had more wins than losses, the commissions cut considerably into those profits, turning 2 of those months to negative profitability.
Please don't get scared about the larger loss going long-term, lol, because yes, it is bigger per roundtrip trade, but that's only because I went into those trades prior to reading this thread, thus I really should have stayed out of the market until the right bus came along on the 4hr and Daily. This is also another reason why using shorter timeframes (I originally used the 30m) is NOT good to determine where your trades should be placed. Like I said, my shorter-timeframes are in the trash can and I've taken them to the main dumpster so that I cannot pull them out again!
Anyway, the true test will be my results after implementing the rules of this method by the end of the month (granted there's an opportunity to enter back into the trend, or if there's a clear sign of a reversal in which the trend will switch the other way) and subsequent months.
In any case, the conclusion one can gather from my statistics, is that when you trade short-term, you tend to over-trade, which in turn leads to more losses than wins, because of the tighter SL you have to put and with forex, there's just too many whipsawing that goes on.
Trading long-term, longer-timeframes and with price action is the key, this I have no doubt.
Like alcastro mentioned in one of his Post #173 ...
I feel exactly the same way. I was following indicators blindly. When they said jump I jumped.
I am not following feb2865 blindly. I wouldn't be following his method if it just didn't make such darn good sense. Even if feb showed us his income statement and he wasn't making money, I wouldn't discard his system/method, I would simply feel that he must not be following his own rules and it doesn't mean that someone else can't follow it and be profitable.
I know and accept that I will still get a certain degree of losses, but by learning and knowing how to trade using price action and staying consistent and diligent to the rules of the game, I can certainly put the odds in my favor, thus having a better chance in hell than a snowball at least, lol (is my feelings, anyway).
Just from my experience (and you can see my statistics for yourself), I really would encourage you to go long-term. But, do so within your means ... don't keep entering/adding positions if you can't afford it. Just build up your wealth slowly. As you start to be consistent with your wins, then you compound (adding more lots to your trades). That way, you don't blow out your account faster than you can build it.
You know what I mean?
Yipee!! Another woman!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/banana.gif
Look alcastro, now you have another lady to stare at (oh, and she's got experience, so even the better!!
David -
I know it's hard to give up the shorter timeframes due to having to put a larger SL, cuz I went through the same thing for the longest time. I finally realized, however, that it just wasn't profitable trading short-term.
Please read this following post where I calculated why short term trades are not profitable --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=1 (I know it's a long post, but please take the time to read through it, as it quantifies what I am saying here.
In those scenarios, commissions were based on 1 lot = $100,000.
I've been trading live for 8 months, but here's some statistics from the last 5 months of actual trades that proves this fact (I'm currently trading 1 lot = $10,000):
July: Profit $66.01 Commissions: -284.37 (approx. 122 roundtrip trades)
August: Profit $538.21 Commissions: -$234.48 (approx. 185)
September: Loss -$378.69 Commissions: -$285.25 (approx. 233)
October: Profit: $18.72 Commissions: -$674.63 (approx. 357)
November: Loss -408.02 Commissions: -$61.77 (approx. 25)
Now for November, I started trading long-term from the 6th, so here's those statistics taking out Nov. 1st - 5th trades:
Nov. 06 to current: Loss -$419.35 Commissions: -$10.34 (approx. 7)
All other months up until Nov. 6, I've been trading short-term on shorter-timeframes.
As you can see, because trading long-term has much less trades being turned over, the commission expenses is much more feasible (well, I am currently in the negative, so it's not feasible if you're losing
For July, August and October, although I had more wins than losses, the commissions cut considerably into those profits, turning 2 of those months to negative profitability.
Please don't get scared about the larger loss going long-term, lol, because yes, it is bigger per roundtrip trade, but that's only because I went into those trades prior to reading this thread, thus I really should have stayed out of the market until the right bus came along on the 4hr and Daily. This is also another reason why using shorter timeframes (I originally used the 30m) is NOT good to determine where your trades should be placed. Like I said, my shorter-timeframes are in the trash can and I've taken them to the main dumpster so that I cannot pull them out again!
Anyway, the true test will be my results after implementing the rules of this method by the end of the month (granted there's an opportunity to enter back into the trend, or if there's a clear sign of a reversal in which the trend will switch the other way) and subsequent months.
In any case, the conclusion one can gather from my statistics, is that when you trade short-term, you tend to over-trade, which in turn leads to more losses than wins, because of the tighter SL you have to put and with forex, there's just too many whipsawing that goes on.
Trading long-term, longer-timeframes and with price action is the key, this I have no doubt.
Like alcastro mentioned in one of his Post #173 ...
I feel exactly the same way. I was following indicators blindly. When they said jump I jumped.
I am not following feb2865 blindly. I wouldn't be following his method if it just didn't make such darn good sense. Even if feb showed us his income statement and he wasn't making money, I wouldn't discard his system/method, I would simply feel that he must not be following his own rules and it doesn't mean that someone else can't follow it and be profitable.
I know and accept that I will still get a certain degree of losses, but by learning and knowing how to trade using price action and staying consistent and diligent to the rules of the game, I can certainly put the odds in my favor, thus having a better chance in hell than a snowball at least, lol (is my feelings, anyway).
Just from my experience (and you can see my statistics for yourself), I really would encourage you to go long-term. But, do so within your means ... don't keep entering/adding positions if you can't afford it. Just build up your wealth slowly. As you start to be consistent with your wins, then you compound (adding more lots to your trades). That way, you don't blow out your account faster than you can build it.
You know what I mean?
