The System (Irony included)

Ouch!!!!
That whipping hurted!!!! Specially since my back was naked!!!
You are right Leigh. I was suggesting some trades against the trend. shame on me!!!

Actually what we should do with the Aussie is wait for a re-establishment of the long trend, after this pullback, or for a confirmation of the downtrend 9that will require a pullback up and a reversal at a lower high. So as Tradr V and Five suggested (NOT ME), we shall sit on our hands.

I am sitting on my hands on the Euro/US, the cable, and the US/JP. Those are the pairs i am watching (and the aussie of course). Waiting for the end of the pullbacks.

Naked is fun...but too many guys and only one lady. can you feel all the eyes
glued on you Leigh?

LOL, I was just about to say ... "you've changed your screen name. I imagine you mean the 'wine' by your new name 'nomoretoxic', lol"

Okay, I will take your advice and not put back the Ichimoku (they were all removed previously, but I had put it on one of my charts just to show you what it would look like).

Naked we be, naked we stay

I also will follow your other advice. I have made a commitment to follow your style diligently. I sense you as a very successful trader, not because I know anything about your actual income/profits (I don't need that for confirmation), but mainly because:

1) your method makes so much sense
2) you conduct yourself as a true leader
3) your feedback/advice/opinions always seem pretty valid and reasonable to me

So, I will be a faithful follower of your system, and not because we are going to turn this into some kind of cult thingy, lol, but because any rational, reasonable person can see that it just makes good sense.

I consider myself rational and reasonable, well, except when I'm teasin' people with my inane sense of humor :

BTW, I was surprised to read Jesse Livermore's career timeline. At the end there, he lost everything and committed suicide.

The only conclusion one can make, is that he didn't follow his own rules of trading.

That is not so unusual though. Many times we can see what mistakes other people are making, but we don't see our own mistakes as clearly for ourselves.

Thank you for your contributions, feb!

ACK! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/fear2.gif

Okay, we need more women in here http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/help.gif

Leigh

Thanks a lot for this summary

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=54528&page=11

Jesse Livermore was a great inspiration for me.

I love his "pivotal points" approach.

Peace

fiveshorts -

You best take off that g-string (365ema) after what feb just mentioned about knowing where the trend is without the use of indicators, lol.

You have "Enter short with modest TP down to trendline" on your chart. Are you taking counter-trend trades, too?

For you, you get a http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/bottom.gif

LOL, why are we trying to fight swimming with the current?

We need to learn patience, because when the trend resumes, that's where the money will be made. The more I come to study the charts and look at this system, the more apparently clear it becomes.

Are you able to read your bars more easily with them all being white?

This is just my opinion, but isn't it simpler to read candlesticks rather than bars? I know the James16 strategy is based on bars (if that's why you changed your charts from candlesticks), but for feb's method, his "make life simple and easy" attitude seems to me the way to go. Having to memorize and look for each bar configuration is almost like having confusing indicators in the way. Also, it's time consuming, especially when one is trading several currency pairs and not just one or two.

Looking for the V-Formation and basing entry/exit on the close of the candlesticks, to me is so much more simpler and easy for most to follow. The premise, I would think, is to keep the clutter and confusion to a minimum.

I look at a bar chart and I cannot spot right-off-the-bat as clearly the V-Formation pattern as when using candlesticks.

Anyway, these are just my opinions

I would love to see us all succeed here, but if we're not going to follow this system to the core, then the system might start not making sense anymore, because it's been morphed into something that it's not supposed to be ... you know what I mean?

For myself, I want to stick to one system and make it work as it is, without any tweaking (you know the saying about "what's not broken ..."). The one that speaks to me as "working smarter and not harder" is feb's system, because many of the other systems you have a lot of memorizing, confusing indicators, etc. and I don't see that working as well for consistent profitability in the long-run, which is what my goal is in achieving.

Does what I am saying make sense to you? If it doesn't then please disregard it, lol.

It has to make sense in order for anything to work for us

Again, these are just my opinions

Thanks. Your response also answers the question of WHICH trend we are looking at...long or short term. While this correction could be places for shorts....it does go against the longer term trend which is up.

But I'm not looking for purism for the sake of purism, though. I'm looking for consistent profit. There are times when a counter-trend trade does make sense — if your risk is low and target worthwhile. Departures from an established, tested trendline that result in a double top are one such an example, sometimes. Again if the risk of being wrong is manageably low, these are often setups too good to throw away in the pursuit of the proverbial Easy Life.

Profits = Easy Life.

Bars vs candles? Well I agree that candles are easier to read quickly, but on a daily chart I'm not in that much of a hurry. There are a number of 2-bar and 3-bar reversal and market patterns that don't have a direct equivalent in candles, so I'm experimenting with bars just to see if they tell me more. If they prove illegible, they'll be discarded. The primary difference between the two, however, is that with candles, the wicks are often treated as an afterthought, or at least a less-significant component of price action, but in bars (as far as I can tell), the whole move is treated equally, with a more equal emphasis given to each of the OHLC components. Considering my earlier post about the validity of the very concept of opens and closes in a 24hr market (there's actually no such thing as a 4hr 'open' or 'close', is there), maybe this bar thing has some merit?

Unfortunately, they're both 'borrowed' devices from markets that do have hard opens and closes, so personally, I think it's time for a new Forex über-candle-bar-thingy visual language that does a better job of depicting market sentiment. Believe me, I'm a-werkin' on it.

Especially considering we don't have volume, like stocks and futures traders do.

Anyway. I agree about simplification and distillation of a 'system'; and certainly adhering to a system is more important than anything, but what I got from feb2865's opening posts was not a 'system' per se that we can or should "follow to the core" but more of the realization that price action is a deep-but-learn-able language. I'm not really looking for another 'system', cos they've only brought me tears and debts. I'm looking for a certain fluency in the language used by the markets. Some will come courtesy of feb's and Trader_V's generosity here on the this thread; some from the fine fellows in the James16 group; some from FXI crew who let you trade over their shoulder; some from just plain ol' doin' it...

I want to keep posting charts that have my 'take' on PA and having them ripped to shreds or praised by people who know more than me (which, after all, is most people) until I get the hang of the vocabulary and meaning of price action. If everyone else does the same here, we might get a handle on this.

Profit. Profit. Profit.
Protection of capital.
Ryan Jones Fixed Ratio Money Management.
Profit. Profit. Profit.

LOL, okie dokie, fiveshorts ... you do what you gotta do

I laughed a lot when I read this post!!!!!

To all friends in this thread:

My assumption that AUD/USD daily charts formed a double top turns out to be right!

Just as I said, on Nov. 1st, a sharp drop happened which is almost 240 pips or more than 2.5% in one day. That is abnormal for any pair! And it happened after a long time uptrend during which AUD/USD has increased more than 20%. why is that? There must be some big players--midterm investors closing their positions. (That is a signal, better be alarmed that a uptrend may be going to stop.)

On 7th Nov., a shooting star formed on daily chart. (And opening a short position opposite to main up-trend on two signals has high award/risk).

That is also price action/movement analysis, IMHO.

Well, dear friends, by saying above my attention is not showing off or something else. Just for discussions only. LOL.

The reason AUD/USD went down IMO, it is due to the AUD/JPY's going down.

So, what to do next? Are we in the middle of a correction or in the beginning of a major down-trend.?

Waiting A/U to be stabilized around 0.88 the level of 31.8% retracement (0.88 is also a very obvious support in October), or around 0.86 the level of 50% retracement?

Or, waiting A/U bounces back and open short position?

The A/j pair has dropped almost 1000 pips, maybe there is opportunity after this pair stabilized and USD/JPY's going down stopped.

Sorry for my poor English.

No need to apologize, we can understand you perfectly

I'm going to still have to wait for a clearer sign before making any assessments. The Daily isn't yet giving any significant info on where it's going to go, for me.

Jumping in to short? Too late. Open long position now? Well, that is trading against your friend -- trend.

Let's wait and see.

Here is the chart.

Hey guys
Listen, there’s a few things we need to clear up here
Just take this as an “old dog”advice.
Price action is definitively king. I started this thread for people who wants to have a better comprehension on price, what it does and how take advantage of it.

But we also have talked about some other stuff. Now fiveshorts have mentioned market sentiment/candles etc
I believe these are valid points closely related with what we’re trying to accomplish here.
Stop thinking that the markets are nothing more than a bunch of drunken sailors ( oh,, I am sorry I meant traders) fighting on the so-called “zero sum game” in order to steal everyone else’s pockets….it doesn’t work like that. I worked on the floor…many years. I saw how many time the “big dogs” made a push and the rest of the crowd follows.

So you think a big dog sitting on a pile of money is going to trade on 1 single market??? HA! get real my friend.
They all trade forex. Stop thinking that you can fight them. You can’t.
They also hedge the forex against/forward the stock market to death. Besides swaps. options etc.


In my case, I learned that it’s more important to understand intermarket relationship better than “market sentiment” or “what’s better candlesticks or pinbars” trendlines, fibos etc. They’re just guides. Don’t patronize them or I assure you, they will get you killed in the long run.
I use them as I said before. But I don’t rely solely on them for trading. Actually, many times I use S/R levels looking for clues as to where they(big dogs) could trigger stops and avoid these areas (notice that I mentioned areas instead of price)

Go ahead and pull daily charts on cable, GPB/JPY, AUS/USD EUR/CHF USD/JPY just to name a few.

Look at the following dates – nov 1…….nov 7…nov 9 last Friday

Also, look for one of the biggest days we ever had this year – Aug 16 2007

Don’t you see something similar???

Now compare that with the charts I am posting here – Dow jones industrial average (DJIA) Futures
Tell me what you see???

Does it makes sense to you??

I suggest you print off the charts if you can.

Is better to become a “student of the markets” better than a “system follower” because the truth is my friend…there’s no system. It doesn’t mean you don’t gotta have a plan….( yes remember “if” then”)

You’re a trader. You must pull the trigger when opportunity knocks…right??

But you must also have a reasoning behind your trade. This is the secret of my endurance on the markets. I know what’s going on. Because I know I call the shots. I am not “married “to a market. I am married to an “opportunity”.
Talk your yourself (or your dog if that makes you happy)

Something like “ Well fiveshorts, I don’t like the kiwi, the yen is kinda sloppy, the cable is going nowhere and the euro is kinda slow for me…I think GPB/JPY looks good. Nice uptrend and yesterday we have a small retracement MMMM let’s see…the trend is up, there’s a shallow pullback with a V patter already established( fractal confirmed). The market (as a whole) is improving. Mmmmm let’s see the quality of this pullback (4 hr charts) mmmm the market is going back up…well if the market goes back down to xxxx price..or gets up to that price, I will be a buyer.”

The above is just an example. Fiveshorts I am sorry to take your name for this little play above.


Or something like “ oh man there’s the fractal there already confirmed…mm I have to get in FAST !!!!
Sometimes you have time to get a “discount” but sometimes you have to get onboard(fast) or miss the bus.
Don’t beat yourself hard looking at the shadow of a candle or if a trendline is drawn correctly etc.
Make your life easy.

Peace

Sorry guys I was trying to load up some charts but the system is giving me an error. I 'll try later

Well, my friend, a double top, plus a shooting star, plus a 2B formation, and plus two big red candles without tails are not enough to tell you anything?

I also asked my myself many times why I missed so many major trends at the beginning and even I jumped in at the beginning why I couldn't hold my precious golden-like positions until the end of the trend? Because I have too many doubts and I am always waiting for sure sign. But I can get 100% of assurance(certainty, or sureness whatever) on a major trend only after it is finished or too late to ride on.

But, thank you.

There are also opportunities for A/J. But, still we have to wait and see.

"waiting for the right moment, and ride on immediately, don't hesitate, otherwise you will be too late".

The above is from that book and I have read that which is about Jesse Livermore "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" for more than twelve times!

I couldn't agree anymore, big brother (May I call you this way?).

Something similar to August will happen if DJ(S&P) goes down for another big drop.

If that happened again, maybe a great opportunity again to long AUD/JPY.

oh man you just hit the nail in the head!!!!

you can call me big brother if you want

you made my day !!!!!! thanks a lot for your observation

I read the first page, and found your view of trading very very very much just like mine. Refreshing. Keep it up.

Seems like some gremlins have been at work on the FF site and I think Merlin is aware of it all and hopefully it will soon be fixed.

This thread is really interesting reading. Thank you Feb for your patience in explaining and sharing your experiences of many years. There is so much to learn from in this thread and your advice greatly appreciated.