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The System (Irony included)

  • #181
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:26pm Nov 11, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting leighsww
I use Desktop version of Intellicharts and their Fractals draw those dots, lol.

I'm sure if you're using MT4, you could edit the indicator's script/code to do the same.

Thanks a lot for a quick reply

I had mt4 long time ago. I use trade navigator from genesis Looking at your charts now I have an idea to crank some codes on my charts. I never though about this before. probably the only indicator I'll use LOL

Thanks a lot
Peace
  • #182
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:30pm Nov 11, 2007 2:30pm
Cool!

I'm glad you didn't have me take it off, cuz I was having a hard time with the thought of being totally naked for alcastro to stare at, lol
  • #183
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:34pm Nov 11, 2007 2:34pm
Hi all,
I like this thread a lot.
After testing and trying lots of "systems" and indicators - I decided to stay with only 2 Ema's (8 & 21) and trend lines. So you see I am shy - not totaly naked. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif Then I found this thread and sure going to try the V shape and all.
Lot of very good insights here.
Thanks a lot. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
"It's choice - not chance - that determines your destiny"
  • #184
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:40pm Nov 11, 2007 2:40pm
Regarding this pair pls remember the correlation to GOLD price.
When the gold rise the audusd rise in tandem.
The gold is at 835 area but there are those who think it goes to 1000 before resting or reversing.
Just a thought.
"It's choice - not chance - that determines your destiny"
  • #185
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:46pm Nov 11, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting Trader_V
For every indicator that tells you to tak a trade I can find you one that says not to.
Trader_V
Hey Trader_V
This is sooo true.
So many times I searched for confirmation to a signal in one "system" in another "system" just to find a signal to the other direction or a "stay out" signal.
Thats one good reason to try and stick to the PRICE ONLY sys ( in the nude camp ) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
"It's choice - not chance - that determines your destiny"
  • #186
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:48pm Nov 11, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting Green_David
Dear Feb, Trader_V, and Fiveshorts.

I added some candles in imagination for the next week.

1) If I jumped in when A/U drops below 0.91 and it develops as the two imaginative two red candles. So, the last week, A/U did form a double top. Wow, how smart I am!

2) If the A/U goes up again, and if I opened a long position around 0.92(or 0.925). Wow, I am also smart.

3) If in both situations, I opened position in the wrong direction. Wow, am I so stupid?

So, please tell me what to do?
I think alcastro said " do nothing"..I have to agree on that

AUD/USD ahas been some how hypersensitive to the stock market for some time now. I have no idea why, that's probably all I need to know to be on the lookout for this pair.

The red "imaginative" candles you plotted is not likely what could happen - I am not trying to be predictive I am just relying on a common behavior in this pair - and every market

Unless the stock market keeps correction started last week.

Remember that markets normally move in "waves" They don't go straigth up or down unless something big happens.



Expect a correction either way -up/down

Unless the indices( S&P 500 - Dow Jones - Nasdaq) keeps on the down path...if that happens - still do nothing. But observe and learn.


let them kill themselves...and when the dust clear - AKA fractals - correction then you take it from there

Play smart

I will place some charts in the next post

peace
Peace
  • #187
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:03pm Nov 11, 2007 3:03pm
Notice on the AUD-USD pair on Nov 1 - a big pull to the downside

Notice The second arrow Nov 7 This is were I put attention on candles

See, originally that candle was "bullish " and the bears hammered down. I n my "hood" we call that " selling pressure" LOL

Then on Nov 9 - another pull down


This move is factored from the stock market. Most of this move is correlated with indices - hey, not to the tick but you see some common behavior. Takes time to learn this but I assure you is worth it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD.JPG Size: 64 KB
Peace
  • #188
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:07pm Nov 11, 2007 3:07pm
I hope I had the charts up this time LOL ( not easy when Mr . Merlot is playing tricks on your head)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD.JPG Size: 64 KB
Peace
  • #189
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:09pm Nov 11, 2007 3:09pm
BTW, you know what I like about you, feb2865? You are a guru with NO ego, arrogance or self-righteousness. You are a very humble and honorable person. You treat everyone with respect and you do not hold yourself high on a pedestal nor above anybody else, that you feel you can't gain value from others.

You are the kind of person that depicts a true leader.

I'm normally not a follower-type (I've had my share of leading when I know what the heck I'm talking about :, lol, in certain aspects of my life/business/etc.), but I have learned to follow/take advice/guidance/etc. when there's a leader (or anybody else for that matter) who knows more than me and where I can gain knowledge and value from them. Heck, I've learned from 13 year olds (computer programming stuff when I used to help out at a web hosting forum), lol.

I think that is what attracted me to this thread, as well, as the great info of the trading style.

Quoting feb2865
I think alcastro said " do nothing"..I have to agree on that
Actually, it was fiveshorts and Trader_V who said to wait (alcastro is probably checking out all the new nudies coming in here

Quoting fiveshorts
Well, the wisdom that I've gleaned from reading SO MANY books and forum threads and webinars etc. etc. on the subject of trading is that your answer may just be a resounding "DO NOTHING."
Quoting Trader_V
Util this pair shows its intentions I am going to stand on the side lines awaiting an opportunity.
  • #190
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:23pm Nov 11, 2007 3:23pm
S&P 500 Futures

notice the big down candle on Nov 1 - Seems familiar don't you think???

The market had a correction - then had another hit on Nov 7

hey...stop starring at me and go ahead, print your charts and do your homework!!!!!


PD:
I mean, for educational purposes is good for you to know now in hindsight ....ha!!! that's easy if I tell you buy here and there don't you think?!!!!!!!

But all of this is useless unless you see it *****as is happening*****


capishe??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P 500.JPG Size: 61 KB
Peace
  • #191
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:28pm Nov 11, 2007 3:28pm
Very nice. On the 4hr EUR/CHF chart....both entry (V & 2Break) work out quite nicely on this downtrend. Taking into account the double btm on the top of the chart.

As for indicators....I have used the stochs cross (8,3,3) for entries in the past and by testing the methods in this thread it appears to give the signal inbetween both methods.

I look 4ward to taking some trades in the coming week w/out the use of the stoch and simply go with the price action.

One question though and perhaps I missed this in previous posts....but with trading with the trend....are we talking OVERALL LT trend (in the case of EUR/CHF which is up and would only go long and we would wait for a long entry) or are we talking the corrections ST trend. (which is the chart I posted and go short)?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF.jpg Size: 25 KB
  • #192
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:30pm Nov 11, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting leighsww
BTW, you know what I like about you, feb2865? You are a guru with NO ego, arrogance or self-righteousness. You are a very humble and honorable person. You treat everyone with respect and you do not hold yourself high on a pedestal nor above anybody else, that you feel you can't gain value from others.

You are the kind of person that depicts a true leader.

I'm normally not a follower-type (I've had my share of leading when I know what the heck I'm talking about :, lol, in certain aspects of my life/business/etc.), but I have learned to follow/take advice/guidance/etc. when there's a leader (or anybody else for that matter) who knows more than me and where I can gain knowledge and value from them. Heck, I've learned from 13 year olds (computer programming stuff when I used to help out at a web hosting forum), lol.

I think that is what attracted me to this thread, as well, as the great info of the trading style.



Actually, it was fiveshorts and Trader_V who said to wait (alcastro is probably checking out all the new nudies coming in here
Oh man I don't know what to say...thanks !!!!!

Jus trying to help


so Alcastro is finally getting naked huh???

Ha!!!! I knew it was a matter of time LOL...we love you brother Al!!!!!


oh my mistake I tell you posting and drinking wine are not a good combination LOL

my apologies to Trader V and fiveshorts..well anyway..they're my partners in crime...as well as everyone else here "discovering" price action LOL


Peace
Peace
  • #193
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:31pm Nov 11, 2007 3:31pm
Quoting alcastro
If it goes short, breaking the support line, I am planning to go short. So I am waiting for a confirmation of the support line brake, at least 10-15 pips below the line, and i am in.
alcastro, I have a question about this post of yours ...

Does this mean you will be going against the trend?

If you are, then I'm going to have to look for my whip (http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif <-- ah there it is), cuz one of the rules is to follow the trend, lol. Read the last quote from that summation I posted:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=154

We have to look out for each other when somebody starts deviating from this system. Let's not fall back to bad habits of chasing, etc.

You did post that before all our talk about going naked and staying true to this system, so maybe you will not be doing what you mentioned earlier ... but I'm just making sure that you will not do the above if that scenario happens :

I guess since we're all putting ourselves out there feeling vulnerable with this new nakedness, I'm feeling I have as much concern for your welfare and success as to my own.

Sheesh, you guys are becoming a part of my family already

---------

BTW, how do we know when a true reversal is happening and not just a retracement?

Is there a certain amount of smaller retracements that need to happen to know this? This is what I'm a little uncertain about and where my Ichimoku cloud used to help somewhat, lol. BUT, I'm NOT going to put that back on there, I'm committed to staying naked here with you guys.
  • #194
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:46pm Nov 11, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting leighsww
BTW, how do we know when a true reversal is happening and not just a retracement?
Is that where maybe the Weekly chart comes in handy, and we should actually stay out of the currency pair until the Daily resumes the Weekly trend?

Here's what the Weekly on the AUD/USD looks like:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 232 KB
  • #195
  • Nov 11, 2007 3:51pm Nov 11, 2007 3:51pm
Quoting ownshook
Very nice. On the 4hr EUR/CHF chart....both entry (V & 2Break) work out quite nicely on this downtrend. Taking into account the double btm on the top of the chart.

As for indicators....I have used the stochs cross (8,3,3) for entries in the past and by testing the methods in this thread it appears to give the signal inbetween both methods.

I look 4ward to taking some trades in the coming week w/out the use of the stoch and simply go with the price action.

One question though and perhaps I missed this in previous posts....but with trading with the trend....are we talking OVERALL LT trend (in the case of EUR/CHF which is up and would only go long and we would wait for a long entry) or are we talking the corrections ST trend. (which is the chart I posted and go short)?
EUR-CHF has been a hedger's paradise for some time now. There's a steep correction on that pair.

Sit on your hands - Wait. do nothing for now


peace

Peace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-CHF.JPG Size: 72 KB
Peace
  • #196
  • Edited 4:18pm Nov 11, 2007 4:05pm | Edited 4:18pm
Feb -

You accepted my Fractal, so what is your opinion about the Ichimoku cloud? I strip all the other components of that indicator and ONLY use the cloud (and I turn it a very dark grey, so that it's just there in the background, inconspicuously). It doesn't conflict with any decision making except for determining/confirming trend reversal and continuation.

I've attached the chart.

What I am thinking is that the Weekly determines if the Daily is reversing or in a retracement, and then if the Daily starts heading down toward the Ichimoku and below it, I wait until it heads back up out of the cloud to re-enter the trend (of course, always waiting for the right bus to come along for the V-Formation pullback entry on the 4hr).

The Ichimoku cloud really works wonders for the trend confirmation.

Whenever I've used it to confirm strong trends I made money. Where I used to lose the money, is when I always traded against the trend, thinking I could capture pips on retracements. Oh, and I now know that shorter-timeframes (day-trading, basically) was another reason for higher losses and inefficient profit making. I've learned my lesson NEVER to do those two ever again, especially after reading this thread.

This is why I believe that the higher efficiency rate of successful trades happen with trend trading on longer-timeframes and sticking to that rule!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDIchimoku.png Size: 253 KB
  • #197
  • Nov 11, 2007 4:59pm Nov 11, 2007 4:59pm
OK here are the charts I couldn't post earlier...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=165
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_blank2.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD7b.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #198
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:20pm Nov 11, 2007 5:20pm
btw, I am almost completely naked. But there are ladies present.
  • #199
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:29pm Nov 11, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting leighsww
Feb -

You accepted my Fractal, so what is your opinion about the Ichimoku cloud? I strip all the other components of that indicator and ONLY use the cloud (and I turn it a very dark grey, so that it's just there in the background, inconspicuously). It doesn't conflict with any decision making except for determining/confirming trend reversal and continuation.

I've attached the chart.

What I am thinking is that the Weekly determines if the Daily is reversing or in a retracement, and then if the Daily starts heading down toward the Ichimoku and below it, I wait until it heads back up out of the cloud to re-enter the trend (of course, always waiting for the right bus to come along for the V-Formation pullback entry on the 4hr).

The Ichimoku cloud really works wonders for the trend confirmation.

Whenever I've used it to confirm strong trends I made money. Where I used to lose the money, is when I always traded against the trend, thinking I could capture pips on retracements. Oh, and I now know that shorter-timeframes (day-trading, basically) was another reason for higher losses and inefficient profit making. I've learned my lesson NEVER to do those two ever again, especially after reading this thread.

This is why I believe that the higher efficiency rate of successful trades happen with trend trading on longer-timeframes and sticking to that rule!

Great observations. Just allow me to clear up a couple of things, with a humble respect.

1) Trends in my opinion don't need confirmation The trend is either there or not. Just train yourself to see naked charts. Ichimoku cloud is probably a good helper but as I mentioned before, everything looks good on hindsight.

2)Weekly time frames are useful, definitely. I just prefer daily charts because I have all the data I need to make a decisions, most of the time. Of course sometimes, daily charts data are not enough so you must go to a higher time frame. Frequency rate on weekly/monthly rates are somehow slow. I definitely give you credit on the charts you posted . In that particular case, I would definitely look at weekly charts.

3) As you mentioned, the higher efficiency rate of longer time frames is due the fact that you have enough information collected to make a sound decision based on the trend/ lack of.

Just look at a plain ol' naked charts

If you don't understand what's going on there, stay put.

I apologize if I am repeating myself in the following statement here but I think it's appropriate.


You must add two words in your trading

1) if

2) then

for instance


"Based on the information I collected ( looking at the charts. establishing corrections, consolidations etc) IF the market do xxx(action = price) THEN I will Buy/sell”

You're combining two elements - Hindsight and "active price action" in one place.

Action – Reaction

I wish you all prosperity in the world and I hope you make a killing in the market

Peace
  • #200
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:37pm Nov 11, 2007 5:37pm
I apologize the last post was me. I just used my son's nickname who's a poster here. I had no Idea I was writting under his name here at his house..(he almost killed me LOL)

my humble excuses

Peace
Peace
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