The System (Irony included) | Page 9 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Point pivot trend line and fibo system (Semafor included) 14 replies

Indicator fix...code included.. WHATS WRONG?!? 4 replies

An interesting read - Daily and 60 Min Strategy - Charts included 3 replies

Attachments: The System (Irony included)
Exit Attachments

The System (Irony included)

  • #161
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:32am Nov 11, 2007 8:32am
Quoting Trader_V
A quick note on timeframes:

I make my entry decisions on a 4H TF. I use the daily and weekly for areas of S/R and overall tend analysis. I never enter a trade based on anything below a 4H chart. In my opinion decisions made on anything lower than 4H charts are for individuals who are looking to get in and out of the market the same day. Otherwise known as day traders.

Ok now that I got that out of the way…

Up until now we have been talking about using price action and how o use it to get into the market. It is no big secret that making trades in the direction of the primary trend presents a trade opportunity with the highest probability. So the question is going to come anytime now about how do we determine the trend? What time frame is most reliable and so on and so forth?

Let me make this clear to anyone who reads this. Lower timeframes build the trends we see on the higher timeframes. So a 1H feeds a 4H which feeds a Daily which feeds a Weekly which feeds a Monthly. So knowing this allows us to use this to our advantage to catch the intermediate or minor trends based on price action of lower timeframes.

What this also means is that one mans up trend is another mans down trend hence the difference in opinions about the market which cause price to go up and down.

There is no right or wrong only a difference in opinion about where the market is heading.

So do your analysis make your choices and stand by them. If you get stopped out on a trade don’t let it affect your mentality about your ability to trade. You will have losing days it’s part of the business and that’s the way it is. There is not a business that I know of that hinges its success on its daily profits and losses rather it bases its profits over the longer time frame.

If you do not know how to determine the trend direction on your given TF then my suggestion to you would be to stop trading immediately and do some research! Not trying to be mean just trying to save you some aggravation.

So what does all this mumbo jumbo mean anyway? Well for KevTCW it means that the points that you have indicated on the chart you provided are areas that “I” would look at and trade on based on a violation of those areas. This may not be the same for everyone who looks at it. Someone else may interpret it differently and enter a short position at the Black number 2. This is where Feb would most likely enter a trade. I on the other hand am a bit more conservative with my entries and prefer to look for a breakout. Let me caveat this by saying I do enter trades as Feb does but based on specific criteria I will touch on at a later time.

For now lets keep things moving in the right direction by understanding that we are looking to enter trades in the direction of the trend with an entry point based on a price action setup after a pullback or a break of he most recent #2 point after a pullback for you more conservative types like myself.

Still more to come.

Trader_V
Trader_V,

Thank you for taking time to reply. Its great stuff to me.
As I am a newbie, I still got much to learn. Thanks.

kevtcw
  • #162
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:07am Nov 11, 2007 11:07am
Quoting Trader_V
OK I don't know why but the forum seems to be having a problem displaying both of the charts I posted from my above post so here is the second chart.

So weird this technology stuff
Hello Trader_V,

Seems the picture with trendlines is missing now....

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #163
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:30am Nov 11, 2007 11:30am
Hi David,

Ok. Slap me and call me Susan*, but is that white line of yours a legit trendline in the first place? I wouldn't have identified it as such, which may be why your dilemma? A violation of the yellow trendline would be a definite clue indeed, or if price rallies, making this big red candle a new fractal point you could draw a revised trendline from the low on the 20th to it. In which case you'd be looking at a continuation up.

I'm certainly not the expert on this forum, but I have just spent all weekend reading Pring's 'Price Patterns' book and it's so important to justify and confirm trendlines for them to have any worthwhile meaning.

Welcome to the debate :-)

Feb? Trader_V?

Fiveshorts


(* it's an old English saying)
  • #164
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:31am Nov 11, 2007 11:31am
Thanks for the recap, Leigh
  • #165
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:28pm Nov 11, 2007 12:28pm
Alrighty then. Here's my take on the 4hr NZDUSD back to about Oct 21st.

My first time using bars instead of candles, so a bit unsure about that. Also first proper attempt at analysis using nothing but price action, so go easy on me people...

I'll attach the blank chart as well, in case folks want to show me where I went wrong...


...OK, my attachments are only 50K each, but won't upload:

"Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 33554432 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 6000 bytes) in /home/fftop/public_html/includes/class_image.php on line 1417"

So I'll have to wait...
  • #166
  • Edited 5:32pm Nov 11, 2007 12:38pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting alcastro
That is what I like about this thread. It is just price action. That makes sense to me.
Yeah, it makes total sense to me, too. That's why I decided to scrap all my indicators and get totally naked, lol (well, I'm keeping my underwear on - the Fractal. BUT, it's NOT going to be used to make any decisions whatsoever, I'm only using it for visuals like what feb2865 posted in this post --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...86&postcount=2 (my Fractals have a dot pattern which creates that similar marking of the areas feb shows).

Anyway, c'mon alcastro, strip down with me and get naked, too!

If you're not wanting to go cold-turkey, then just do it for one of your currency pairs and track which of your systems is bringing you more consistent wins.

After reading this thread (twice even) and what I've experienced so far with having tested out every single indicator in the universe for 8 months, lol, I truly believe that too many indicators get in the way of reading the price action, thus many times having an adverse affect on my decision making.

If you believe in this thread as making the most sense for you than any of the other systems you are currently using, then stick with this coach and learn and practice his method with me. Jumping around is only going to make decision making confusing and unprofitable.

I have had a business for 28 years and I thought I was successful at it, I worked hard and diligently, averaging 15 - 18 hours a day, 7 days a week, but the fact of the matter is ... my debt is greater than my profits. I don't blame anything or anybody for it, it's all my own decisions/choices that have gotten me there. I have reputational and quantified success, but NOT financial. However, something has dawned on me about that from just what I see happening on these forums. I jumped around with manufacturing too many products like people here jump around with too many systems and indicators. I manufactured gift items, then stationery, then rubber stamps, then computer clipart, then wedding/birthday invitations. I've had to reinvest tons of $$ over-and-over every time, so no wonder my debt outweighed my profits!

Anyway, I am not going to do that same mistake I did with my business, so I am sticking with following the rules of this business and staying with one method, learning that method thoroughly, doing what the coach says (hey, if he doesn't want us wearing jewelry when we play cuz it just gets in the way of our game, then so be it and I've taken the jewelry off). Like I said, I'm only keeping on one piece of underwear (ok, maybe it's just jewelry too, but can I call it my wedding ring? Cuz I like wearin' that, and I promise, it's just gonna be that one piece that's it and I'm not using it to influence my trading. I'm going to use the V-Formation on the Daily and 4hr - my lower timeframes are in the trash can!).

So, what say you, alcastro?, let's do this together. I see you have been trading for 1 - 3 years (says in your profile), so if none of the previous systems you're using is doing it for you, and you see this one as making the most sense, then do like Chuck Yeager did (hit the accelerator and not the brake). I don't know why, but somehow I've taken a liking to you (probably cuz of your sense of humor and I had to laugh at your "I know...I am an advocate for total nudity but I have indicators!!!!", so it's you I'm pickin' on right now :, sorry, lol)

But, anybody else who wants to get naked with us, please do, cuz it's always kinda better when everybody is looking the same vulnerable way in the room, haha.

I'm committed to this and I am not going to deviate from this method.

Okay, I'm going to go wait at the bus stop for the next bus to catch
  • #167
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:46pm Nov 11, 2007 12:46pm
Thank you, Fiveshorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD USD.JPG Size: 132 KB


Here is the chart. Look at the red shadow. A double top forming?
  • #168
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:01pm Nov 11, 2007 1:01pm
Dear Feb, Trader_V, and Fiveshorts.

I added some candles in imagination for the next week.

1) If I jumped in when A/U drops below 0.91 and it develops as the two imaginative two red candles. So, the last week, A/U did form a double top. Wow, how smart I am!

2) If the A/U goes up again, and if I opened a long position around 0.92(or 0.925). Wow, I am also smart.

3) If in both situations, I opened position in the wrong direction. Wow, am I so stupid?

So, please tell me what to do?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD USD2.JPG Size: 134 KB
  • #169
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:14pm Nov 11, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting Green_David
So, please tell me what to do?

Well, the wisdom that I've gleaned from reading SO MANY books and forum threads and webinars etc. etc. on the subject of trading is that your answer may just be a resounding "DO NOTHING."

Not every turn of the price carries a clear indication of a viable trade. It may just be you'll have to wait a little longer for a pattern to reveal itself or a trend to take on some momentum.

Price in your chart is floating around what I believe is an all time high and the world is in a state of financial chaos (imho), so you need confirmation of a move, one way or the other.

If I've learned anything at all, it's that the greatest achievement is to take home the 'meat' of a move — the bit that happens after it's been confirmed. Trying to grab the antlers and the tail is when you get bitten and kicked, respectively.

Fiveshorts.
  • #170
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:17pm Nov 11, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting fiveshorts
...OK, my attachments are only 50K each, but won't upload:

"Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 33554432 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 6000 bytes) in /home/fftop/public_html/includes/class_image.php on line 1417"

So I'll have to wait...
That's bizarre, fiveshorts, that you can't upload a 50k attachment. Have you tried several times and it's still doing that?

Green_David was able to upload, so try again.
  • #171
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:18pm Nov 11, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting Green_David
Dear Feb, Trader_V, and Fiveshorts.

I added some candles in imagination for the next week.

1) If I jumped in when A/U drops below 0.91 and it develops as the two imaginative two red candles. So, the last week, A/U did form a double top. Wow, how smart I am!

2) If the A/U goes up again, and if I opened a long position around 0.92(or 0.925). Wow, I am also smart.

3) If in both situations, I opened position in the wrong direction. Wow, am I so stupid?

So, please tell me what to do?
David, I am NOT Feb, nor Trader_V, nor five Shorts, but hey...I am going to let you knowmy opinion anyway:
If you go long you will playing a typical Feb trade (am i right Feb?), in which there is a correction in the uptrend that AU/US is in and now it should resume that uptrend. What I am planning to do is to wait for the reversal candle and the confirmation candle. If both happen, I will go long at the high of the confirmation candle. That is, i should be long on wednesday (that candle may also break above the high pivot, so it would also be an entry in Trader's_V book).
If it goes short, breaking the support line, I am planning to go short. So I am waiting for a confirmation of the support line brake, at least 10-15 pips below the line, and i am in. My TP, as i said in a previous post, is somewhere above the low pivot at 0.8750. Since I like to play safe I will put my TP at least 50 pips above that one, that is: 0.8800. But I will also have a trailing stop following the downfall (just in case).
My stops, if I go long would be just below the low of the previous candle, and if I go short, just above the support line that in my case is at 9110.

In both cases my R:R are more than 1:1. So it is cool.
  • #172
  • Edited 2:00pm Nov 11, 2007 1:24pm | Edited 2:00pm
Also, Green_David (lol, I'm not the 3 either, but just noticed where you were planning to enter your trade on the pullback) ... if you're using feb's method of the V-Formation, here's that post of feb's on which candlestick you want to enter on if the upward trend continues --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=102

I would assume it would then be the one after the one you depicted, so entering more likely at .925 rather than .920.
  • #173
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:31pm Nov 11, 2007 1:31pm
Leigh, so shall we get rid of all the stuff that covers us? Hmmm..... sounds like a plan. I am all for it.

After all the time that i have spent looking at different systems, testing some, papertrading them, or putting my money behind`them. Losing in some, winning other times (but with that feeling that it was a "fluke" coz there was no rational explanation that could support my win), I have come to the conclusion that PA is king (I guess i have said this in every single time I have posted here!!!).
So here is the deal: I am going to stick with this system. I am going naked with you leigh... and with everybody else who wants to meet us at the nude beach.
I will only keep my sunglasses (because staring is rude....but sometimes i can't help it!!!)
  • #174
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:33pm Nov 11, 2007 1:33pm
Very inspriational post leighsww.

While reading through it I started taking my clothes off and getting naked...

Seriously though an excellent post to encourage those glued to conflicting indicators to get down to the bare bones and watch the price unfold before their eyes.

Remember brokers and traders of the old days only had a ticker tape to monitor and somehow made a living trading.

For every indicator that tells you to tak a trade I can find you one that says not to. So do like leighsww says, get er done and get naked...lol

Trader_V

Quoting leighsww
Yeah, it makes total sense to me, too. That's why I decided to scrap all my indicators and get totally naked, lol (well, I'm keeping my underwear on - the Fractal. BUT, it's NOT going to be used to make any decisions whatsoever, I'm only using it for visuals like what feb2865 posted in this post --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=22 (my Fractals have a dot pattern which creates that similar marking of the areas feb shows).

Anyway, c'mon alcastro, strip down with me and get naked, too!

If you're not wanting to go cold-turkey, then just do it for one of your currency pairs and track which of your systems is bringing you more consistent wins.

After reading this thread (twice even) and what I've experienced so far with having tested out every single indicator in the universe for 8 months, lol, I truly believe that too many indicators get in the way of reading the price action, thus many times having an adverse affect on my decision making.

If you believe in this thread as making the most sense for you than any of the other systems you are currently using, then stick with this coach and learn and practice his method with me. Jumping around is only going to make decision making confusing and unprofitable.

I have had a business for 28 years and I thought I was successful at it, I worked hard and diligently, averaging 15 - 18 hours a day, 7 days a week, but the fact of the matter is ... my debt is greater than my profits. I don't blame anything or anybody for it, it's all my own decisions/choices that have gotten me there. I have reputational and quantified success, but NOT financial. However, something has dawned on me about that from just what I see happening on these forums. I jumped around with manufacturing too many products like people here jump around with too many systems and indicators. I manufactured gift items, then stationery, then rubber stamps, then computer clipart, then wedding/birthday invitations. I've had to reinvest tons of $$ over-and-over every time, so no wonder my debt outweighed my profits!

Anyway, I am not going to do that same mistake I did with my business, so I am sticking with following the rules of this business and staying with one method, learning that method thoroughly, doing what the coach says (hey, if he doesn't want us wearing jewelry when we play cuz it just gets in the way of our game, then so be it and I've taken the jewelry off). Like I said, I'm only keeping on one piece of underwear (ok, maybe it's just jewelry too, but can I call it my wedding ring? Cuz I like wearin' that, and I promise, it's just gonna be that one piece that's it and I'm not using it to influence my trading. I'm going to use the V-Formation on the Daily and 4hr - my lower timeframes are in the trash can!).

So, what say you, alcastro?, let's do this together. I see you have been trading for 1 - 3 years (says in your profile), so if none of the previous systems you're using is doing it for you, and you see this one as making the most sense, then do like Chuck Yeager did (hit the accelerator and not the break). I don't know why, but somehow I've taken a liking to you (probably cuz of your sense of humor and I had to laugh at your "I know...I am an advocate for total nudity but I have indicators!!!!", so it's you I'm pickin' on right now :, sorry, lol)

But, anybody else who wants to get naked with us, please do, cuz it's always kinda better when everybody is looking the same vulnerable way in the room, haha.

I'm committed to this and I am not going to deviate from this method.

Okay, I'm going to go wait at the bus stop for the next bus to catch
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #175
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:42pm Nov 11, 2007 1:42pm
LOL, GREAT you guys!! I was hoping that I wasn't going to be the only naked one here, haha.

Let's do this!! With the support here, I know we can make this successful for us!!

  • #176
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:46pm Nov 11, 2007 1:46pm
seems like everyone is getting naked here LOL

sorry guys I was out . I need to catch up

I wish you from the bottom of my heart all the best and I hope everyone gets on the right path of success. Remember that this "system" is not free

look at the beginning of the thread I stated my price

peace and good karma to all of you
Peace
  • #177
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:02pm Nov 11, 2007 2:02pm
OK I gotta put my disclaimer in here before I continue on.

Any information I may give about a particular market is not to be taln as trading advice. The views and opinions expressed are my own. If anyone choses to make trades based on the opinions expressed they do so at their own risk of loss or reward.

Ok now that I got that crap out of the way let me tell you my thoughts.

The last time the Aussie has seen these ranges was back in 1984. That being said I wonder what the situation of the US economy was back then? At ay rate; something traders must be aware of is that any time a market experiences a significant rally or decline a period of consolidation is bound to occur.

Here is what I see. This pair has been trending upward nicely for a long time. Each rally was followed by a consolidation period or minor decline. We have rallied yet again. This pair is consolidating after the previous rally. The weekly shows weakness which indicates a that we may see a reversal or just a correction.

Util this pair shows its intentions I am going to stand on the side lines awaiting an opportunity.

Some will look at this pair and say "It's at an all time high so it's bound to retrace". But if you zoom to the 4H you will see a double has bottom formed with a pin bar indicating it may continue north again.

So again until the market shows where it wants to go I ill be keeping the bench warm on this pair.

I hope I provided a little insite for some here.

Trader_V

Quoting Green_David
Dear Feb, Trader_V, and Fiveshorts.

I added some candles in imagination for the next week.

1) If I jumped in when A/U drops below 0.91 and it develops as the two imaginative two red candles. So, the last week, A/U did form a double top. Wow, how smart I am!

2) If the A/U goes up again, and if I opened a long position around 0.92(or 0.925). Wow, I am also smart.

3) If in both situations, I opened position in the wrong direction. Wow, am I so stupid?

So, please tell me what to do?
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #178
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:04pm Nov 11, 2007 2:04pm
my Fractals have a dot pattern which creates that similar marking of the areas feb shows).

I would love to see you charts with this dots. That will help me customize something on my charts...could you show them please???
Peace
  • #179
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:10pm Nov 11, 2007 2:10pm
I would like to add respectfully to what trader v said about the Aussie

This pair has been in a middle of strong fundamentals lately. I always advocate the use of fundamentals to keep you heads up. Although we're chartist in essence , we must keep one ear on the ground,especially with Aussie/kiwi crosses.

Peace

P.D but don't get too "jumpy" for news either...remember just to keeps your heads up
Peace
  • #180
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:20pm Nov 11, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting feb2865
I would love to see you charts with this dots. That will help me customize something on my charts...could you show them please???
I use Desktop version of Intellicharts and their Fractals draw those dots, lol.

I'm sure if you're using MT4, you could edit the indicator's script/code to do the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_fractals.png Size: 218 KB
1 trader viewing now