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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,561
  • Nov 9, 2007 3:36pm Nov 9, 2007 3:36pm
But unfortunately, 1 hr requires hourly attention.....

Quoting the_wizard


Excellent trade. Can you see why I love 1hr?
  • #7,562
  • Nov 10, 2007 10:18am Nov 10, 2007 10:18am
There is one thing I learned out of this.
Keep your finger of the @$#@% mouse!
It is tough. You are staring and filtering through 3454 charts until you feel like throwing up on all of them. Until you find the one. And I still missed GJ.
On the other hand, following more than one trade at the same time would significantly decrease my oxygen supply. We can't have that. At the moment my Dell can handle only 34 oxygen tanks. So there.
  • #7,563
  • Edited 4:46pm Nov 10, 2007 3:19pm | Edited 4:46pm
Perhaps I have failed once again to take notice of an important IB... This in regards to USD/CAD... The saving grace is that perhaps also, I still have time to get in...

First mistake though probably was not to have taken notice of what I think is a "piercing pattern" on daily... At least that is what i think it is... when reading about candlesticks a pericing pattern requires a gap, but with forex that is more difficult... at any rate, if I were really any good at forex, I should have seen this... I did not... NEXT, the daily IB... This should have been traded and I did not... it has already fired off a long about 30 or 40 pips ago... NOW, we have a weekly PB...

IF, raczek is right, and oil price will fall off the next couple of months, this is a chance to help USD/CAD rise... Oil is priced in dollars... perhaps if oil price falls over the next couple of months, this will actually be some strengthening of the dollar. I am trying to base these thoughts on things Seeking and Rac have said... though I know I have not explained very well here...

I had told ademac I probably would not trade the weekly PB on CAD... but I have changed my mind... Because now I have found a way to do it without having to place my stop at the bottom of the PB... but more likely under the IB !!! First Profit Target .9700
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,564
  • Nov 10, 2007 8:01pm Nov 10, 2007 8:01pm
I finally find oil charts, but why does it look like this ??? Oil was above $98 on Nov 7th....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,565
  • Nov 11, 2007 6:09am Nov 11, 2007 6:09am
Quoting Tiki Trader
I finally find oil charts, but why does it look like this ??? Oil was above $98 on Nov 7th....
The short answer is: the cash price is different to the futures price.

On a side note, if you look at futures prices you should be aware that there are different ways of charting futures prices that give drastically different prices.

Since months or quarters have a limited life span you will only get meaningful price data for one to three months which makes identification of longer term S/R levels extremely hard.

To overcome this there are different ways to chart the futures:

a) Nearest Futures Charting

Contracts are plotted until they expire at which point the chart moves onto the next contract. This can be very unreliable since a nearest futures chart may reflect huge distortions dude to the price gaps between the expiring and subsequent month. If December Crude closes at $98 and January Crude (forward months often trades at a premium due to the cost of carry) is at $101, the chart will show a $3 rise that never actually happened.

b) Continuous Futures Charting

This eliminates the gaps between expiring and subsequent months E.g If on rollover date December Crude closes at $98 and January Crude at $101 all subsequent prices would be revised downward by $3 which is the difference between the two contracts. This makes charts free of distortions but if nearby contracts constantly trade at significant premiums it is possible for a series to eventually include negative prices for some past periods as cumulative adjustments mount up!

c) Perpetual Forward Series Charting

Quotes prices a constant amount of time forward. E.g. If you are calculating a 90 day constant forward series and the 90 day forward date fell one third of the way between the expirations of the nearest two contracts, the constant forward price would be calculated as the sum of two thirds of the nearest contract price and one third of the subsequent price. This is problematic as it does not correspond to any real contract and so is not a "real" tradable price. It also does not reflect the impact of time on a futures contract.

Best thing to do is be aware of how your broker quotes their futures price and do some reading up on it.

I wouldn't assume this is complex and not something that matters. The differences in charting can drastically alter your setups if you are a technical trader and it is not a case of "trading what you see" as we are taught with price action. If your brokers charts are constructed by nearest futures charting for example, a downtrend in prices can look like a VERY CLEAR uptrend on the charts.
  • #7,566
  • Nov 11, 2007 7:59am Nov 11, 2007 7:59am
Heyho,

just had a look at my charts and there are a few interesting setups. I think that a small retracement on the XUSD pairs is due but GBPUSD has already moved down significantly and playing these pinbars would be going against the strong uptrend.

Chris
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd11.11.2007.gif Size: 22 KB
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  • #7,567
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:00am Nov 11, 2007 8:00am
somehow the other two attached charts werent uploaded.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,568
  • Nov 11, 2007 9:54am Nov 11, 2007 9:54am
WAY too complicated for me...!!! I don't want to trade oil.... just want to see the chart sometimes...

Quoting the_wizard
The short answer is: the cash price is different to the futures price.

On a side note, if you look at futures prices you should be aware that there are different ways of charting futures prices that give drastically different prices.

Since months or quarters have a limited life span you will only get meaningful price data for one to three months which makes identification of longer term S/R levels extremely hard.

To overcome this there are different ways to chart the futures:

a) Nearest Futures Charting

Contracts are plotted until they expire at which point the chart moves onto the next contract. This can be very unreliable since a nearest futures chart may reflect huge distortions dude to the price gaps between the expiring and subsequent month. If December Crude closes at $98 and January Crude (forward months often trades at a premium due to the cost of carry) is at $101, the chart will show a $3 rise that never actually happened.

b) Continuous Futures Charting

This eliminates the gaps between expiring and subsequent months E.g If on rollover date December Crude closes at $98 and January Crude at $101 all subsequent prices would be revised downward by $3 which is the difference between the two contracts. This makes charts free of distortions but if nearby contracts constantly trade at significant premiums it is possible for a series to eventually include negative prices for some past periods as cumulative adjustments mount up!

c) Perpetual Forward Series Charting

Quotes prices a constant amount of time forward. E.g. If you are calculating a 90 day constant forward series and the 90 day forward date fell one third of the way between the expirations of the nearest two contracts, the constant forward price would be calculated as the sum of two thirds of the nearest contract price and one third of the subsequent price. This is problematic as it does not correspond to any real contract and so is not a "real" tradable price. It also does not reflect the impact of time on a futures contract.

Best thing to do is be aware of how your broker quotes their futures price and do some reading up on it.

I wouldn't assume this is complex and not something that matters. The differences in charting can drastically alter your setups if you are a technical trader and it is not a case of "trading what you see" as we are taught with price action. If your brokers charts are constructed by nearest futures charting for example, a downtrend in prices can look like a VERY CLEAR uptrend on the charts.
  • #7,569
  • Nov 11, 2007 10:28am Nov 11, 2007 10:28am
Creeper,
I know this is a strong uptrend on the EUR/USD, but on the 12 hr chart it looks like a near perfect pin bar to me. Since we're breaking new territory, any advice on this pin bar would be appreciated for a newbie.

Joe T
Balance in Everything
  • #7,570
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:08am Nov 11, 2007 11:08am
Quoting creeper
Heyho,

just had a look at my charts and there are a few interesting setups. I think that a small retracement on the XUSD pairs is due but GBPUSD has already moved down significantly and playing these pinbars would be going against the strong uptrend.

Chris
Chris,

You forgot about USD/CAD Weekly. Beautiful pin bar.

I'm taking GBP/USD short and USD/CAD long if I can get an entry on the lower timeframes.

Wiz

P.S Take a look at this pin bar (on the daily TF) at the bottom of a falling wedge in a long term uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,571
  • Edited 12:11pm Nov 11, 2007 11:59am | Edited 12:11pm
DBHLC on GJ 1h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,572
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:02pm Nov 11, 2007 12:02pm
Tiki,
The USD/CAD is forming a nice weekly pin bar. Here is what I see. My weekly charts don't close until around 7 pm EST so there is still time for the pair to change. But assuming we close somewhere around were we are, you could enter on the break of the high around 9439 or you could wait for a retracement and enter on lower TF's, like Wizard suggested. I personally will be looking to enter after a retracement to around 9348/21 area with PA of course. This is the 23.6% (9348) of the weekly move up and the 9321 is where the low of the left eye is. Often times you will see these left eye lows and/or highs tested before a break of the pin occurs. Also if you look at my daily and 4 hour charts I have attached we have some TL and pivot point resistance near by (9442 area). For me this will be a reduced position size trade because it is against the main trend, but because we have had such a strong move off the lows and Oil seems to be temporarily topping out, I will give this trade a shot. As always this is just my opinion. Trade what you see and feel are the best set-ups. Good luck all.
Attached Images
  • #7,573
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:04pm Nov 11, 2007 12:04pm
Quoting the_wizard
Chris,
P.S Take a look at this pin bar (on the daily TF) at the bottom of a falling wedge in a long term uptrend.
Hey Wizard!

Nice PB.
Could you please tell me what is this chart for? Is it a currency pair, a comodity?

Thanks a lot!
  • #7,574
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:04pm Nov 11, 2007 12:04pm
For some reason it didn't post all my charts. So here is the weekly chart of the USD/CAD.
Attached Image
  • #7,575
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:26pm Nov 11, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting Melinni
Hey Wizard!

Nice PB.
Could you please tell me what is this chart for? Is it a currency pair, a comodity?

Thanks a lot!
Hi Melinni,

It's December Wheat

Wiz
  • #7,576
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:36pm Nov 11, 2007 12:36pm
Hey Wall street,
I see you use ibfx charts. Do you still have conection. Mine wont load & I see on the ibfx forum some others are having the same problem.
Ibfx dont open till 5 est. so no help till then.
Also where do you pull the time till end of bar indi from.
thanks Jeff
  • #7,577
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:51pm Nov 11, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting rustyjeff
Hey Wall street,
I see you use ibfx charts. Do you still have conection. Mine wont load & I see on the ibfx forum some others are having the same problem.
Ibfx dont open till 5 est. so no help till then.
Also where do you pull the time till end of bar indi from.
thanks Jeff
cant see his charts for some reason i think my browser is messed up but I assume this is what you are talking about
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 EJ_CandleTime.mq4   2 KB | 699 downloads
  • #7,578
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:54pm Nov 11, 2007 12:54pm
Mike,
Nothing came up in the window
  • #7,579
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:07pm Nov 11, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting rustyjeff
Mike,
Nothing came up in the window
hmm I see it there

how about this
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...02007%208:44pm
  • #7,580
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:17pm Nov 11, 2007 1:17pm
thanks mike,
Is anyone else not getting connection with ibfx
I cant get my chart argh!!!
any sugestions...
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