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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #49,481
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:32am Nov 11, 2007 5:32am
Quoting auslanco
This is what I posted 10days ago.. although the price didnt carry upto 242+ area.. 230.74 is still a valid target within this month IMO.
and how about a freefall after 230.74
  • #49,482
  • Nov 11, 2007 5:48am Nov 11, 2007 5:48am
Quoting karmostaji
when everybody is screaming bears, you know it's time to call the bull
As a matter of facts, you have to go back to August 15, this year to find the Geppy not to reverse the next day after a great fall...
  • #49,483
  • Nov 11, 2007 6:04am Nov 11, 2007 6:04am
Quoting chris747
As a matter of facts, you have to go back to August 15, this year to find the Geppy not to reverse the next day after a great fall...

Absolutely.
Be careful with your long suggestions Karmostaji.
When everyone expects a reversal, more likely it wont happen.

Fer
  • #49,484
  • Nov 11, 2007 6:44am Nov 11, 2007 6:44am
go bull
  • #49,485
  • Nov 11, 2007 6:56am Nov 11, 2007 6:56am
Here is one of numerous astro charts that mean old Man Stoxx and I keep in our tool box. This is worked out from irregular but repeatable events. Check the dashed line out. This next repeats itself on the 16th. On another thread I had given 15th/19th as possible dates of importance. All of these can be seen years in advance. But most of the time I only look at the following month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,486
  • Nov 11, 2007 7:56am Nov 11, 2007 7:56am
I don't think that we will see a big retracement.
The fall was too strong and big. When you look at Usd/Jpy you can see that it can go to 108,50 in the next days and when Gbf/chf falls further which is very likely and usd chf stays at the same level because of support gbd/usd goes down and so does Gpy/jpy.

But maybe I am completely wrong.


Quoting chris747
As a matter of facts, you have to go back to August 15, this year to find the Geppy not to reverse the next day after a great fall...
  • #49,487
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:01am Nov 11, 2007 8:01am
Quoting svengali
Here is one of numerous astro charts that mean old Man Stoxx and I keep in our tool box. This is worked out from irregular but repeatable events. Check the dashed line out. This next repeats itself on the 16th. On another thread I had given 15th/19th as possible dates of importance. All of these can be seen years in advance. But most of the time I only look at the following month.
Could you please explain how these astro charts are generated, what the dotted, dashed, solid lines and circles which you have drawn are and how they are calculated and plotted, and most importantly how you have come up with the 16th or 15th to 19th day.

The chart as it stands makes no sense to me in person and I am sure to a lot of traders viewing this thread, or at least direct us to the source where we can find out about your chart
Regards
  • #49,488
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:13am Nov 11, 2007 8:13am
I haven't seen a lot of support for the bears. Only Auslanco has shown a chart - where is everyone elses? It would be nice to see what is out there.

Yes, my bias is short (longer term) but I am expecting a retracement now (not a reversal) so I am long for it. Here is some strong support I see.

1. We have just completed a bullish bat with the fib levels lining up nicely.
2. The consolisation in Sept produced a triangle and we are at the apex.
3. Price has pierced a few strong trendlines but a break is not conclusive as yet.
4. We have also reached medium to strong support levels on other pairs.

So Sunday could see a bit more down but I will expect a bounce somewhere within that bottom grey shaded area that starts at the apex of the triangle. Since these points live on the daily, we should see a reasonable bounce and some consolidation around this area before continuing to fall. Now the only thing that will break it easily is panic selling so I am prepared to accept a slap on the face and reverse should that be the case.

Chart attached.
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  • #49,489
  • Edited 8:37am Nov 11, 2007 8:25am | Edited 8:37am
I know I've said this before, but I expect the retracement to go to the 235 region or just below. First target and stops set to BE+1 at 232.8.
  • #49,490
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:28am Nov 11, 2007 8:28am
Quoting Zoran
I know I've said this before, but I expect the retracement to go the 235 region or just below.
I have 2.3520 as a terget!
  • #49,491
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:50am Nov 11, 2007 8:50am
i'm with you bro..

this could go down 100 - 150 pips during open / asian, [to bounce off the fib at 230.28 but i expect it to go up to at least 234.8 / 235.00 where there's s/r before making another big trip down.. (to the 229ish or the 226.8ish region)

I'm still wondering how AUS/NZ traders will trade..

I would still be asleep during that time, so i set a wider SL


see you guys during london / NY tomorrow!
Quoting Zoran
I know I've said this before, but I expect the retracement to go to the 235 region or just below. First target and stops set to BE+1 at 232.8.
  • #49,492
  • Nov 11, 2007 9:33am Nov 11, 2007 9:33am
Regression analysis has been very accurate for me when looking at higher time frames 4hr+. My 4hr chart shows this continually going down, daily shows a retrace coming and weekly also. I'll post a daily shot.

Here is a screenshot of the daily. We closed below the 2nd deviation line (blue line) I marked it with a green arrow. Statistically, there is a 95%+ chance that we will return to the middle line (aqua line) I marked the probable tag point with a yellow check mark.

The whole point of regression is that price wants to return to the middle of the channel. Of course the aqua median channel line chases price, that is why its more accurate on longer TFs.

This yellow check is about the 235 area like many people above had predicted. The 50ema (my yellow line) and the 5sma ( the other aqua line) will have a confluence around 235. Very strong indication price will go there... After this retrace we probably continue down. But lets see when we get there

That being said, if we get a gap down you can bet I am going buy into it to ride the retrace up, right after I close my gbp short that is
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  • #49,493
  • Nov 11, 2007 9:46am Nov 11, 2007 9:46am
Quoting markam
We are going to see the best of both worlds, simultaneous inflation and deflation. A huge amount of the US money supply is simply going to disappear. I am guessing well over a trillion dollars in housing, stock markets, etc., is going to to go bye-bye. So you will see deflation of assets. In addition, because of the coming depression, we will costs coming down for certain classes of products, such as autos. However, because of the weakening dollar and peak oil, we are going to continuing increases in everything you need to live on. Food, gas, commodities, etc., are all going to skyrocket.

Add in skyrocketing unemployment, wage stagnation for people that keep their jobs, and a massive influx of mexicans when Mexico collapses, and we have all the ingredients necessary for the end of the US.

That is not even thinking about big natural disasters, terrorists attacks, or the coming war with Iran. We will collapse just fine even without these.
You forgot to mention what would happen if China decides to start dumping USD. And US go to World War III with Iran and Russia. Anywho, I already have a plan of moving to Thailand should the US become "uninhabitable".
  • #49,494
  • Nov 11, 2007 10:30am Nov 11, 2007 10:30am
Quoting markam
We are going to see the best of both worlds, simultaneous inflation and deflation. A huge amount of the US money supply is simply going to disappear. I am guessing well over a trillion dollars in housing, stock markets, etc., is going to to go bye-bye. So you will see deflation of assets. In addition, because of the coming depression, we will costs coming down for certain classes of products, such as autos. However, because of the weakening dollar and peak oil, we are going to continuing increases in everything you need to live on. Food, gas, commodities, etc., are all going to skyrocket.

Add in skyrocketing unemployment, wage stagnation for people that keep their jobs, and a massive influx of mexicans when Mexico collapses, and we have all the ingredients necessary for the end of the US.

That is not even thinking about big natural disasters, terrorists attacks, or the coming war with Iran. We will collapse just fine even without these.
Not too gloomy, my friend!
The US is still the biggest free nation on the world!
If it did not always have the most brilliant presidents(!) it's still the emblema of justice and freedom! If it needs some times to recover from former errors, it will always come back with its great citizen and the will for justice and freedom in the world!
  • #49,495
  • Nov 11, 2007 10:43am Nov 11, 2007 10:43am
Quoting chris747
Not too gloomy, my friend!
The US is still the biggest free nation on the world!
If it did not always have the most brilliant presidents(!) it's still the emblema of justice and freedom! If it needs some times to recover from former errors, it will always come back with its great citizen and the will for justice and freedom in the world!
  • #49,496
  • Nov 11, 2007 10:55am Nov 11, 2007 10:55am
Zoran,

I agree with your NZD/JPY call, the trendlines in NZD/JPY usually hold and the yield is still very attractive. However should Asian equities tank then all bets are off. With that being said I favor an upside surge, followed by a selloff in London
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #49,497
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:00am Nov 11, 2007 11:00am
Quoting Kurti
Do not smoke too much of your staff, body!
  • #49,498
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:13am Nov 11, 2007 11:13am
Quoting DutchTrader
Zoran,

I agree with your NZD/JPY call, the trendlines in NZD/JPY usually hold and the yield is still very attractive. However should Asian equities tank then all bets are off. With that being said I favor an upside surge, followed by a selloff in London
The triangle is closing in onto the apex so it is ripe for a break, but I expect one final bounce off it.
  • #49,499
  • Nov 11, 2007 11:16am Nov 11, 2007 11:16am
Quoting chris747
Not too gloomy, my friend!
The US is still the biggest free nation on the world!
If it did not always have the most brilliant presidents(!) it's still the emblema of justice and freedom! If it needs some times to recover from former errors, it will always come back with its great citizen and the will for justice and freedom in the world!

Actually, India is the largest free nation on earth. But I agree we will come back. Unfortunately, I expect a currency collapse, a depression and the creation of a whole new economic model first.
  • #49,500
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:31pm Nov 11, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting markam
Actually, India is the largest free nation on earth. But I agree we will come back. Unfortunately, I expect a currency collapse, a depression and the creation of a whole new economic model first.
I agree with that. The debt servicing model is clearly becoming too much of a drag on the overall economic/social well being of the US.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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