Dislikedlol man ...
by the way , where's that chat room i once met u on ? can't seem to find it!Ignored
Utah
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #49,447
- Edited 8:35am Nov 10, 2007 8:32am | Edited 8:35am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Never Give In | 2,518 Posts
I thought countrywide would hang on until sometime next year, but I think they will be filing for bankruptcy before Christmas.
Lower Ratings Would
Hamper Countrywide
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
Wall Street Journal
November 9, 2007 8:35 p.m.
Countrywide Financial Corp. warned in a securities filing that further cuts in its credit ratings to junk-bond levels could "severely" limit its ability to raise money in public debt markets and cause it to lose bank deposits.
In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday, the Calabasas, Calif., home-mortgage lender said that a cut in its ratings to levels below investment-grade could prevent it from placing funds from custodial accounts at its savings bank subsidiary, Countrywide Bank. Ratings below investment grade also might cause Countrywide Bank to lose commercial deposits and limit the trading activities of the company's broker-dealer unit, Countrywide said.
, interesting. Everything is playing out according what the fundamentals dictate. I left my shorts open. I am planning on riding them all the way down. S/L is in place. According to my analysis, GU should be around under 1.95 by year end (maybe even less if the banks start to report losses , the housing bubble {UK} starts to burst, less than rosy economic news coming out). We already have "Helicopter Ben", we should see "Helicopter King" within the next month or so. 
Interesting enough, everyone is talking about inflation, inflation, inflation. I think the Fed (Bernanke) is more worried about deflation. We have already started to see home prices falling. If this accelerates, coupled along with the sub-prime mess (foreclosures), The Dow will be trading around 6000 to 8000 within the next year or two and possibly the start of even a greater depression that history has witnessed during the 1920's.
Since stumbling upon this forum several months ago, I would only trade according to the fundamentals, now I have added technicals and it has worked great. Near 100% success rate and I have started to trade on longer time frames. Can't be hassled on trading on a daily basis. I have only been scalping CAD crosses. So far, so good, fairly easy to predict which way they will go. Follow oil prices (barring economic new releases).
Always look forward in reading / analyzing your posts. Have a great weekend!
Humble Lifetime Member
- #49,448
- Nov 10, 2007 9:21am Nov 10, 2007 9:21am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 3,112 Posts
Interesting enough, everyone is talking about inflation, inflation, inflation. I think the Fed (Bernanke) is more worried about deflation. We have already started to see home prices falling. If this accelerates, coupled along with the sub-prime mess (foreclosures), The Dow will be trading around 6000 to 8000 within the next year or two and possibly the start of even a greater depression that history has witnessed during the 1920's.
Since stumbling upon this forum several months ago, I would only trade according to the fundamentals, now I have added technicals and it has worked great. Near 100% success rate and I have started to trade on longer time frames. Can't be hassled on trading on a daily basis. I have only been scalping CAD crosses. So far, so good, fairly easy to predict which way they will go. Follow oil prices (barring economic new releases).
Always look forward in reading / analyzing your posts. Have a great weekend!
Add in skyrocketing unemployment, wage stagnation for people that keep their jobs, and a massive influx of mexicans when Mexico collapses, and we have all the ingredients necessary for the end of the US.
That is not even thinking about big natural disasters, terrorists attacks, or the coming war with Iran. We will collapse just fine even without these.
- #49,449
- Nov 10, 2007 12:24pm Nov 10, 2007 12:24pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
What should we expect tomorrow, a retracement still to 233 area and more sell off or just a sell off?
From my point of view we have (or just about) bottomed. We will go back up a bit (possibly 234.5 area) and then continue to fall to around 221.00.
Now what do you think?
- #49,450
- Nov 10, 2007 12:31pm Nov 10, 2007 12:31pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Unconventionable Conventionist | 2,768 Posts
If you refer to more than one person, each will have a different opinion. So as you can read, some are expecting the fall to continue whereas others (including myself) think we will get some retracement before a continuation. Furthermore, some even believe that we are going to 280.00
From my point of view we have (or just about) bottomed. We will go back up a bit (possibly 234.5 area) and then continue to fall to around 221.00.
Now what do you think?
I THINK that I know that I am long GBPJPY for a retracement to 235 - 235.50 from 232.05 and 231.62. Here ends my facts equipment.
My THEORY is that it is going to then go down again to 228ish, retrace once more and then I go conform with your last target.
My bullish scenario failed as the downward move on Friday was not stopped around 235.50.
Unfortunately we are nearly on the same boat this time, but at least I have a slight deviation to see TWO retracements from here to the up side.
Nice weekend!
Gnat
- #49,451
- Nov 10, 2007 12:58pm Nov 10, 2007 12:58pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
Hi Gnat
If you want to go into more detail then I agree. Bounce off 228 area back to 230/231 and then to 221. So we agree!
If you want to go into more detail then I agree. Bounce off 228 area back to 230/231 and then to 221. So we agree!
- #49,452
- Nov 10, 2007 12:59pm Nov 10, 2007 12:59pm
If you refer to more than one person, each will have a different opinion. So as you can read, some are expecting the fall to continue whereas others (including myself) think we will get some retracement before a continuation. Furthermore, some even believe that we are going to 280.00
From my point of view we have (or just about) bottomed. We will go back up a bit (possibly 234.5 area) and then continue to fall to around 221.00.
Now what do you think?
- #49,454
- Edited 1:24pm Nov 10, 2007 1:18pm | Edited 1:24pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Never Give In | 2,518 Posts
We are going to see the best of both worlds, simultaneous inflation and deflation. A huge amount of the US money supply is simply going to disappear. I am guessing well over a trillion dollars in housing, stock markets, etc., is going to to go bye-bye. So you will see deflation of assets. In addition, because of the coming depression, we will costs coming down for certain classes of products, such as autos. However, because of the weakening dollar and peak oil, we are going to continuing increases in everything you need to live on. Food, gas, commodities, etc., are all going to skyrocket.
Add in skyrocketing unemployment, wage stagnation for people that keep their jobs, and a massive influx of mexicans when Mexico collapses, and we have all the ingredients necessary for the end of the US.
That is not even thinking about big natural disasters, terrorists attacks, or the coming war with Iran. We will collapse just fine even without these.
I was thinking about that today, we will have inflation along with deflation. It has already started, the signs are there. Deadly combination. Personally, I think that the fed knows this, but they don't want to say anything as not to panic the markets / public / world. Alarm bells are already ringing in Asia when Bernanke said that we will see slower economic growth for the next several quarters. We should see a drop when the Nikkie opens as the exporters are going to take a big hit coupled with news that came out about the home builders and Country Wide.
Humble Lifetime Member
- #49,458
- Nov 10, 2007 2:53pm Nov 10, 2007 2:53pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
But, be careful.... markam and his bears are ready and waiting. Take profit and be ready to join him.
- #49,459
- Nov 10, 2007 3:16pm Nov 10, 2007 3:16pm
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,429 Posts
But, be careful.... markam and his bears are ready and waiting. Take profit and be ready to join him.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
- #49,460
- Nov 10, 2007 3:17pm Nov 10, 2007 3:17pm
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,429 Posts
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!