That quote from Albert EinsteinReally enlightened me
Oh... I am so enlightened tonight
Ed thats an interesting account but I think you might be making my argument just a little if you look at the text closely. Your experience with your friend was a single instance; you would need to log thousands of those for it to be significant and one of the interesting things we see when traders (be they hedge funds, CTA's or private) is, they don't recount what doesn't work or when they fail. Part of the problem with the Hedge Fund industry right now is we can't get a good handle on the attrition rate because many funds just simply stop reporting... We never know if they've gone belly up or what has happned.
The other thing we do as traders is hang on to anything that supports what we believe, even if we don't have good evidience that it works. There are no doubt many traders here who strongly believe that pschology is extremely important in trading, they may not exactly know why, or they read something and it made sense to them and they've adopted it as a belief. That's not a bad thing, but it can be (if it costs you money in the end).
Here is what we should really be asking ourselves, if we want to prove that psychology (and possibly talking to stuffed animals) has merit (I'll tell you what I do in a minute)... How do we trade it and how can we test it.
Lets assume that we all, as a group can agree on a series of psychological triggers in the market (it will help if we have someone with a PHD in the field), We could probably use any of the high volatility events like NFP and identify price action before and after and then measure the market response as positive or negative before and after as well, from that data we should be able to extract both long and short term success of the markets reaction to the release... Now to be certain this will get very complicated (as it should) because you are going to have additional pscholigical events just before and after that also impact the crowds behavior and the importance of the release (you should already be seeing the difficulty with these models in the market).
I've got tons of data and have access to more; enough to derive something statistically significant, so I'm more than willing to help in the project.
Lets not wonder or argue, lets model, because in the end the only thing that matter is... Can you trade it. Maybe we'll end up with something that clearly identifies a specific action or reaction is tradable.
Again I think we need some kind of pro to help us identify the psychological triggers... Someone who understands Conservatism and Representativeness as well as the dynamics of Belief-based Models. Once we have a mechanism for accurately (or somewhat accurately) Identifying the trigger, we can then extract the correctness of the reation over time.
If you're interested in digging into it let me know...
What inanimate object do I "talk" too? My keyboard; I keep about six spairs in the closet for those conversations. LOL
Okay... less debate without proof, let's grind out some number (in between trades of course). Even if you disagree with the results, you'll have facts that you can pick apart and formulate a real argument from.
.Hi Malaysia,
I really love some of the quotes from the great physicists, they range from hilarious to enlightening. How about this;
"If I have ever made any valuable discoveries, it has been owing more to patient attention, than to any other talent". Isaac Newton.
Easy for him to say of course, probably one of the greatest minds to ever live. He was wrong about light though.
Maybe I need a psychologist!!!
You mean patient as in patience? Still having trouble in ENGLISH as it is my 2nd language
If that what you mean... well... the key to discover anything needs patience. After all... patience is the virtue
Ironic isn't it? He came out with the theory... only later on another physicist came out with the hard facts and proven experiments... confirming that he was wrong about the light
)Yeah it means patience.(patient = past tense
Thing is all these great geniuses had their failures, but they all share an incredible ability to visualize things and "think outside the box". For example Einstein used to think about fling in a space craft when formulating ideas. Thing is it was about 60 years before spacecraft existed.
A real visionary!
If only he's still alive... he could forecast the market... what gonna happen in 60 years time This thread really electrifying me at quarter to 3 in the morning over here
Yeah it means patience.(patient = past tense
Maybe I need a psychologist!!![/quote]You're right, it is past tense, but it's also present and future.
Sorry to be picky, but he's trying to learn English.
When someone is being patient, we say they "have patience". It's a characteristic.
Past tense would be
He was patient. He had patience.
I was patient. I had patience.
You were patient. You had patience.
Future is the same.
I will be patient. I will have patience. etc.
Then there's the homonym. Sounds the same, different definition.
The doctor had a patient. He had many patients that day.
That word, patient, means someone being treated by a doctor or such.
Frankly speaking... I don't have the patience to open up my thick dictionary to actually find the meaning of this word This is what I love the most by involving in FORUM discussion. I can learn many things interactively
Cheers mate
Psychology is nothing
That reminds me of a grade school teacher I had a conversation with once. She said, “If he can’t read we give him an easier book. If he can’t read that we give him an easier one. If he can’t read that we send him upstairs to have him evaluated, he must be ADD or something.”
In other words, it wasn’t her job to teach him to read. If he can’t read, he must be mentally ill!
I guess that comes full circle. A person would have to be crazy to want to be a professional trader!
Psychology is nothing
Knowing is the entire game.
......
that we send him upstairs to have him evaluated, he must be ADD or something.”
In other words, it wasn’t her job to teach him to read. If he can’t read, he must be mentally ill!
I guess that comes full circle. A person would have to be crazy to want to be a professional trader!
That is your opinion... for me... psychology is everything. I treat the market as the collection of whole traders in the world psychology. Market is NATURE... not SYSTEMATIC. What about PANIC.... isn't it psychology? Somehow many people see market as something systematic because they want it to be systematic so that they can trade comfortably.
Knowing is the entire game of course... did you know about the OIL PRICE SURGE today beforehand? Did you predicted about the SUBPRIME issues last year? Anyone did? What are the major factors that gonna affect the economy next year? We all left with SPECULATION. Sometimes market already move earlier than the actual fact/data release.
Market is NATURE... it's evolving. If I wanna play along with it... my trading system must also evolving.
This is just me and my brain. I am profiting from it. So be it
.Back to my original point, it's not anything to wonder or argue about.
Maybe I didn't say it well. Maybe folks really aren't reading the whole post.
Once you understand the point, either you've experienced it and agree, or you haven't and disagree, &/or you will experience it.
